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Road to the 2022 Champion Hurdle

Slim said:
Hadn't he already said the horse was going straight there?
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Yes. I watched that interview over breakfast this morning. He was quite adamant that they could do what they needed to at home to get him there ready for the race, and I thought there was just a hint of confidence about the horse's chances.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It already does, in the sense that most ratings compilers use different values per pound at the different distances.

For example, I use the following values on Good ground and faster:

5f 3.6lbs per length
6f 3lb
8f 2.25
10f 1.8
12f 1.5
16f 1.1

I usually tweak them slightly for courses, eg for 5f at Epsom I'm more likely to tweak it to 3.8lbs or even 4lbs if the evidence warrants it.

I also tweak the values [downwards] for softer ground form.
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Yes, but I was thinking of the different weight allowance suggestion for different distances. By that same token wouldn’t it follow that you’d give a different handicap rating for different distances?
 
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Again, in principle, I agree.

I think it used to happen a couple of decades ago. I vaguely recall reading something about one handicapper (say, the 8-10f handicapper) having different ratings for the same horse from the staying (12f+) handicapper.

I'm presuming they found a way of 'harmonising' (one of their favourite words) the ratings when Phil Smith was in charge. He was into that kind of thing.
 
James Du Berlais had three runs in France before the Champion Hurdle last season - though it was his yard debut.

As a wise man once said “Willie wouldn’t tell you the time of day, if he was staring at your watch”. Maybe the horse will run, but there have been several entries made this season and none of them have been taken-up. Will he run him in the Champion, or will he just put him away for a delayed novice chase campaign next year. Whatever he says right now he can easily amend nearer the time, and I don’t think it’s at all clear-cut that he’ll definitely go in the Champion.

If he does run, I’d welcome it, because it’s an appalling race in his absence.
 
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Remember Grassy that Mullins won the County Hurdle with Arctic Fire off a 14 month break, and a Stayers Hurdle with Penhill off an 11 month break, not to mention multiple Mare's Hurdles with Quevega on her first run of the season.
 
I’m not suggesting Appreciate It can’t win the CH if he runs, CL…..or that he will conclusively not run…..but there have probably been a half-dozen real or purported entries for the horse this season, and he hasn’t taken-up any of them.

For me, the alarm-bells have been ringing for a while (since at least the abandonment of the novice chase campaign), and they’re chiming ‘problem’ a lot louder in my head, than they are ‘plot’.
 
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chroniclandlord said:
Remember Grassy that Mullins won the County Hurdle with Arctic Fire off a 14 month break, and a Stayers Hurdle with Penhill off an 11 month break, not to mention multiple Mare's Hurdles with Quevega on her first run of the season.
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The idea that any horse out of Willie Mullins yard needs the run would be up there with the most stupid opinions in racing.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Appreciate It isn't declared for the Red Mills Hurdle, which was just about the last opportunity to get a race into him before Cheltenham.

I still think he is a million to get to the Festival, and if you were to back him now, you'd best do it on an NRMB/NRNB basis.
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I suggested the Red Mills on the 9th of Feb but the next day Mullins said in an interview he would not go there and the plan was straight to Cheltenham

Him going straight there should concern us Honeysuckle backers more than Mullins saying he needed a run before Cheltenham would have.
 
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Hard to know what to make of it but he's gone up to 160 which puts him in the mix for the places. Still only a 4yo, mind.
 
My bad. I meant second-season juvenile, same as Zanahiyr etc.

I backed Zana for this last year at 33/1 but that was because I had a huge figure for him for his Fairyhouse win from Saint Sam and the runner-up hasn't done anything to make me doubt that. He was a good stone better than Saint Sam who finished the season rated 143. I may be a mile out but I can't help thinking Zana has been trained for this since the Fairyhouse race, the trainer at pains not to sour him with a tough juvenile campaign.

But all that is in the light of my being dead against 5yos in the Champion Hurdle.
 
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granger said:
What did the forum make of teahupoo today?
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For what it's worth he was impressive in beating grade 3 hurdlers one of which is now going chasing.

If he was trained by Paddy McGinty instrad of Elliot he'd be double his current odds as what he has done to date is a million miles from Champion Hurdle form.

With Willie Mullins saying he is delighted with Appreciate it and Nicky Henderson thinking he has Epatante back to het best this season
backing anything else to be placed looks like poor value compared to their actual chances.

Teahupoo could be the best of the rest but he's a shockingly bad ew bet at 8/1 100 pounds ew give you a 30/100 return on your outlay if he manages to be placed 3rd
 
What a strange year we have had on the forum. In the past the Champion Hurdle and the Arkle were jam paccked with posts and opinions
However with Honeysuckle suposidly being home and hosed and the Arkle having that moderate look about it the Supreme has taken over the number one spot.

Howver with WPM having worked his magic to get Appreciate it there in one piece the Champion Hurdle has become a bit more intersting.

I looked at Simon Rawlings sectional and I have never liked the way he goes about things.

I really don't care how horses get from start to 3 out. fast slow middle of the road whatever,

To me it's all ablout how much toe do the show from 4 out 3 out or 2 out.

Honeysuckle from 3 out would have left Apprecaite for dead there's no doubt about that.

Is that the be all and end all? Not when you consider Epatante was much faster then Honeysuckle the year before.

This could end up very close, closer than we think......I think she's awesome but Appreciate has me worried if no one else is.



I
 
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Brilliant stuff and a great race but you gotta feel for Zanahiyr, up against it as a 5yo and losing out to the mares' allowance.

There's an element of pocket-talking in there but those are the conditions of the race. I always knew Zana was a good one.

Tommy's was never really looking dangerous. Course? Travelling? I'm not convinced he's run within 10lbs of his form but he was worth the try.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Brilliant stuff and a great race but you gotta feel for Zanahiyr, up against it as a 5yo and losing out to the mares' allowance.

There's an element of pocket-talking in there but those are the conditions of the race. I always knew Zana was a good one.

Tommy's was never really looking dangerous. Course? Travelling? I'm not convinced he's run within 10lbs of his form but he was worth the try.
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5lbs not the difference. And they are mares. Good run. Same with Saint Roi.

Good winner but not as good as last year. Delighted for connections.
 

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