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The 2025 Grand National

Don't be put off by Jockeys having their first ride in the race, a few that spring to mind that won the race on the first attempt = Ryan Mania ( Auroras Encore ) Niall ( Slippers ) Madden on Numbersixvalverde , Jason Titley ( Royal Athlete ) , Liam Treadwell ( Mon Mone ) ....... there must have been others also.
 
Might And Power said:
Don't be put off by Jockeys having their first ride in the race, a few that spring to mind that won the race on the first attempt = Ryan Mania ( Auroras Encore ) Niall ( Slippers ) Madden on Numbersixvalverde , Jason Titley ( Royal Athlete ) , Liam Treadwell ( Mon Mone ) ....... there must have been others also.
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out of the last 20 GN's (2004 - 2024) 5 winning jockeys had never ridden in the race before, well from 2000 onwards, and 3 had never won at Aintree full stop
 
Not sure if it is of any interest to anyone else, but on the Racing TV website (and I think you can watch this without having a membership) is a jockey cam of the full race of the 2024 Grand National. Camera was worn by Danny Mullins on Meetingofthewaters, who is still in this years race. He ran quite well, before stopping quickly at the last. Anyway, I found it quite interesting, though everything seemed more sedate than I would have imagined the race to be.
 
Beauport (will run forever) ground makes no difference 33's over priced, It will be interesting who gets the booking.

Ill be keen on whatever Reveley gets booked for (Bravemansgame ?) as the GN is getting more & more like Auteuil.

Min Cocooner e/w
Hewick (had his day in the sun I feel)
Hoping that Blackmore rides Senior Chief.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've added 66/1, 5 places, Stay Away Fay.

Here's my thinking:

  • Was rated 159 as a first-season novice when only 6/1 for the Brown Advisory (G1) last season but pulled, later scoped dirty.
  • A respiratory issue was also diagnosed after he pulled up in the Scottish National.
  • In November of last season he beat Grey Dawning. That one is now rated 162.
  • He was a 148-rated first-season novice hurdler when beaten by Apple Away in the G1 at Aintree. My belief is that hurdlers improve 10lbs into their second season and then another 10lbs when they go chasing and possibly another 10lbs into their second season chasing. It doesn't always happen and the higher rated they are as novices the less improvement is likely but they do still usually keep improving.
  • My idea is that when SAF couldn't win the Brown Advisory they decided he wasn't a Gold Cup horse so why not put him away for the National.
  • His wind was operated on in the summer and he has had one run over hurdles this season, presumably to keep him under the radar. It's what they do in Ireland, after all, isn't it?
  • The handicapper, in my opinion, has taken a big risk in dropping him to 150 for this. I reckon he could be a 170 waiting to happen

He still needs to run in one more chase to qualify but he's entered in the Ultima so a run there will do. A big run would see his price collapse.
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I've been interested in Stay Away Fay too, but I see he's out to 130 on the exchange. A sign he's unlikely to run? Or perhaps just a total lack of money for the time being in a small market. Anyway, no sign of confidence, yet, from the yard, for a horse that is yet to come right.

That said, a poor run in the Ultima is no reason to give up hope. A well-travelled route, isn't it?
 
I will be surprised if they allow it to be any quicker than Good to Soft - anything that wants Good ground (let alone faster) basically has the CoC, spurred on by the BHA, doing everything he can to disadvantage them.
 
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Generous1991 said:
I've been interested in Stay Away Fay too, but I see he's out to 130 on the exchange. A sign he's unlikely to run? Or perhaps just a total lack of money for the time being in a small market. Anyway, no sign of confidence, yet, from the yard, for a horse that is yet to come right.

That said, a poor run in the Ultima is no reason to give up hope. A well-travelled route, isn't it?
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Since 2000 , 90 horses have gone from the Ultima to the following GN , 3 have won and 5 have placed. The last winner being in 2023 and the last place only 2019

But the GN is not a race with any strong trial race pointers.
 
Anadin said:
Min Cocooner e/w
Hewick (had his day in the sun I feel)
Hoping that Blackmore rides Senior Chief.
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I see that they are starting to tip up Senior Chief now 25's and if the ground continues to dry this will be shorter on the day if Blackmore chooses.
 
I have decided, to add Hyland as a qualifier to my 2 observations rules from last year's result.

The reason being on boxing day he ran in the Kauto Star Novice Chase which is a Grade 1 race. I have been through the rest of GN entries and I think he is the only Novice ? PLEASE LET ME KNOW IF I AM WRONG.
He may not even run, presently 35 after L'homme Presse became a Non Runner. But it seems likely and with 365 NR NB, I thought he should be included.

To be honest, I could do with a few more Non Runners, as my stake means I am betting not to far just 2/1 on the win side. If it was not for the Three £5 free bets that I have used, it would be less than 2/1.

Outlay = £34 + (3 × £5 free bets), originally backed for a £40 profit on the win side, but then increased to £80, hence why the strange prices. All have been backed ew 5 places NR NB.

I Am Maximus - 10/1
Hewick - 18/1
Grangeclare West - 25/1
Hyland - 25/1
Minnella Cocooner - 30/1
Bravesmansgame - 35/1
Minnella Indo - 50/1
Capodanno - 70/1
Royal Pagalille - 85/1
Conflated - 105/1
 
Generous1991 said:
I've been interested in Stay Away Fay too, but I see he's out to 130 on the exchange. A sign he's unlikely to run? Or perhaps just a total lack of money for the time being in a small market. Anyway, no sign of confidence, yet, from the yard, for a horse that is yet to come right.

That said, a poor run in the Ultima is no reason to give up hope. A well-travelled route, isn't it?
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Thanks D O and Generous for reminding me of this horse 😆, I have lost a few bob on him in the past 🙂. As you have said, he was once highly regarded, he is definitely worth bearing in mind. I will keep an eye on the exchange.
 
I should have wrote "she" - I think the CoC at Aintree nowadays is a lady by the name of Sulekha Varma.

Nothing against her personally, but the modern policy of all of them seems to be: "Soft is safest."
 
Ian_Davies said:
I should have wrote "she" - I think the CoC at Aintree nowadays is a lady by the name of Sulekha Varma.

Nothing against her personally, but the modern mantra is "Soft is safest."
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I stick by what I said the other day, Thursday is likely to be Good to Soft and by Saturday it will be riding very close to Good. All depends how much they put on, but they surely can't over water. The course is looking great at the moment.
 
Is everybody waiting for whether the ground is good/soft or good before they make 10 selections for my Grand National Tipping Competition? At this rate I will win with a score of 'nil pour' 😃. Competition closes midnight tomorrow.
 
Maurice knows.

I personally don't take a blind bit of notice of what any CoC says ever.

It's their job to maximise field sizes and contriving to get the words "Good" AND "Soft" into any going report they issue is the way to best realise this ambition in this sphere.

The only accurate info you will ever get off a CoC is a going stick reading and getting to know what a stick reading actually means at a particular track (it varies) is key in this game.

Btw, I'm very happy with this scenario - I don't want lazybones punters and bookies' traders spoon fed the reality - the harder it is to find out the truth the better the reward for the few who put the work in.
 
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