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The 2025 International Handicap

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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Not much doing in the big handicap department in Blighty this weekend, so I've been having a butchers at this 7f feast at Ascot Saturday week.

More Thunder is ante-post favourite, but the one who catches my eye is Metal Merchant.

He was only beaten a length when fourth in this race last year and, after three undistinguished attempts since, he can run off 4lb lower this year.

He needs a few to drop out, but he might have been targetted at this and I'd say 40/1 is twice the odds he ought to be if he turns up on King George Day.

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/international-handicap/winner
 
Last years winner Northern Express is handicapped to win it again.
Not sure why the handicapper is so generous, as the horse isn't running badly.
Looks sure to go well again. Can't see it being 12s on Saturday.
On an unsettled week weather wise. Galeron good go well at 40s. There's a race of this nature in him, judged on his Lincoln run.
 
26 confirmed entries, obviously Metal Merchant isn't one of them (once again The Devil vomits in my kettle) and, rather boringly, I now think the 5/1 jolly Aalto has "a favourite's chance," as they say.

But what price favourite?

I'd actually say 4/1 to 9/2, so there's a slither of value in the 5s.
 
I've taken 6/1 Aalto.

He's actually a pound lower than in the Bunbury Cup so 5lbs well in compared to his new mark. I backed him in this race last year and remember him finishing down the park but on checking again I see he was a very close ninth despite meeting trouble in running. I had said after the Newmarket race that I suspected we wouldn't see the real Aalto again until next year's race but it looks like he was trying in this race last year so, if he is, 6/1 is more than reasonable. The draw might end up snookering him but it's a chance worth taking for now.
 
I've gone with Akkadian Thunder who was given a shite ride by Buick in that Bunbury Cup. He needs cover and he was out on the unfavoured wing. It goes without saying Ascot is his track.
 
I did Akkadian thunder a/p 16/1+ bonus but he's 5lb worse off with Aalto who could well win and Northern express is 2lb lower than winning last year.
Looks a competitive race.
 
If I were to have a stab at this race at this early stage, I’d go for the bottom horse, Sword.

Bought out of the Gosden stable by David O’Meara, but previous part owner now owns it outright. Ran some decent races this season, the best of which was probably at Leicester, over a straight 7f with a stiff uphill finish, like Ascot. So I’m thinking a good pace here might suit and I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best of him. He’s 33/1 at present, but I might wait for declarations and the draw before taking the plunge.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
If I were to have a stab at this race at this early stage, I’d go for the bottom horse, Sword.

Bought out of the Gosden stable by David O’Meara, but previous part owner now owns it outright. Ran some decent races this season, the best of which was probably at Leicester, over a straight 7f with a stiff uphill finish, like Ascot. So I’m thinking a good pace here might suit and I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best of him. He’s 33/1 at present, but I might wait for declarations and the draw before taking the plunge.
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I agree and also waiting to see if it runs.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've taken 6/1 Aalto.
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I can't get on with Coral/Ladbrokes and, unlike "Leafy," I haven't got a network of "beards" (he met either in a betting shop, a tapas bar in Spain in Autumn/Winter, a cafe in Northern France in Spring/Summer, or while poncing his third free meal of the day in the O&T all the year round at some racecourse) scattered all over the Home Counties.

I'm jealous, Maurice!
 
Ian_Davies said:
I can't get on with Coral/Ladbrokes and, unlike "Leafy," I haven't got a network of "beards" (he met either in a betting shop, a tapas bar in Spain in Autumn/Winter, a cafe in Northern France in Spring/Summer, or while poncing his third free meal of the day in the O&T all the year round at some racecourse) scattered all over the Home Counties.

I'm jealous, Maurice!
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You never know, Ian. The other week it went from 14/1 to 40/1 so it might end up 20s on Saturday!
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
If I were to have a stab at this race at this early stage, I’d go for the bottom horse, Sword.

Bought out of the Gosden stable by David O’Meara, but previous part owner now owns it outright. Ran some decent races this season, the best of which was probably at Leicester, over a straight 7f with a stiff uphill finish, like Ascot. So I’m thinking a good pace here might suit and I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best of him. He’s 33/1 at present, but I might wait for declarations and the draw before taking the plunge.
Click to expand...
Outsider said:
I agree and also waiting to see if it runs.
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Annoyingly, Paul Kelly has also flagged Sword in his Ante Post column. Bet365 are still 33’s, but most of the others have cut it already. I still want to wait for declarations, to make sure he runs and gets an OK draw. Oddly, I’d be more confident if he was a big price, rather than backed down to a shortish price.

This is what Mr Kelly said:

Sword won over as far as 1m2f for John and Thady Gosden, but has been reinvented a 7f handicapper and has run really well on three of his last four outings for David O'Meara.

A win at Leicester last month was followed by a close third at Haydock and, while he was only seventh at York last time, he wasn't beaten far in a big field having been denied a run for a while, and he was ridden out with only hands and heels and was quite an eyecatcher.

He looks a far from straightforward son of Kingman, but he seems to be a very strong traveller, and the ability is most definitely there, so he looks worth chancing at a big price
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Annoyingly, Paul Kelly has also flagged Sword in his Ante Post column. Bet365 are still 33’s, but most of the others have cut it already. I still want to wait for declarations, to make sure he runs and gets an OK draw. Oddly, I’d be more confident if he was a big price, rather than backed down to a shortish price.

This is what Mr Kelly said:

Sword won over as far as 1m2f for John and Thady Gosden, but has been reinvented a 7f handicapper and has run really well on three of his last four outings for David O'Meara.

A win at Leicester last month was followed by a close third at Haydock and, while he was only seventh at York last time, he wasn't beaten far in a big field having been denied a run for a while, and he was ridden out with only hands and heels and was quite an eyecatcher.

He looks a far from straightforward son of Kingman, but he seems to be a very strong traveller, and the ability is most definitely there, so he looks worth chancing at a big price
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That should have said Paul Kealy (spellchecker and me not rechecking before pressing send)! Now best price 25/1 - someone must have put a fiver on.
 
I'd struggle to say Aaltos any value whatsoever. He won the Bunbury cup last year and he's probably run the same level this year. He then went to this race and was a no show and pretty much a no show in every race after that.I wouldn't bank on him reproducing last week's effort.

Imo Billyjoh got stopped a couple of times in his run in the Bunbury and stayed on well for third. Although he's obviously proving frustrating to back he certainly has the ability to pick one of these races up if ever things drop right. Whether it's this race, the stewards or the Ayr gold cup I'm sure something has to drop for him one day and whilst he's available at double figure odds for any of these races in my eyes all things being equal I.e drawn on the right side or near the pace then I'd say he's a 1/2 shot to frame on the extra place races so I think the value lies there in backing him in his next few races each way and hoping things drop right for him to get the win.

Smarter men than me where draw bias are concerned and in seeing where he's drawn in regards to where the pace horses are and if they are around him could probably pick their moment to plunge better than I but I certainly think he represents better value for money and is certainly more consistent now he's shown he's back in good order than Aalto would be.

Best of luck.
 
Marble's thoughts, (no pun intended) - City House caught the eye staying on well last time, the extra furlong should be ideal, and perhaps Spangled Mac, who finished close to City House last time, can frank the form with that Pontefract run, later at Yarmouth tonight. Even if he doesn't I want City House on my side tomorrow.

Oxo has talked me into Sword, so if he runs a shocker, you might need to beware, Oxo!

I'll chuck in Classic in the reverse forecasts and tricasts and I'll be too busy living it large in the Caribbean to ever post on here again if I get lucky on that.

Other than the above, I've no idea really and it's anybodys race. Good luck to one and all. 👍
 
I've backed Sword the last twice, clearly not been off either time or Tudhope is a bellend. Could be both.

I'm strong on Akkadian Thunder and for giggles I will put Sword in an each way double with Korker at York.
 
At the risk of incurring Slim's derision at yet another attempt to solve the ephemeral straight course Ascot draw bias (lottery?), a forum member says he's actually been out on the track this morning and reports it's firmest Stands' side - high numbers in this and the 3.35 if only for today?

My confidence in Aalto is much diminished - high draw Exacta/Trifecta additions impending to the "Interfolio" - if that's the case! 😂
 

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