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The 2025 Glorious Goodwood Day 1 (Tuesday) thread

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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May 7, 2023
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Hampshire
Goodwood is IMO a beautiful racecourse, I first attended in 1984 (saw Commanche Run win the March Stakes) and I used to stay at the Hunter's Lodge in nearby Lavant for the Tuesday to Saturday then drive to Devon on the Friday night for the then start of the NH season (Newton Abbot Saturday/Monday and Devon & Exeter, with its summer 3m1f chute start, Wednesday/Thursday).

It's not got Royal Ascot's strength in depth, though, even if there are eight races the opening day.

48-hour declarations on Sunday morning.
 
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Very trappy card. Was discussing the opener on Twitter with someone and I remarked that I'd put Castle Cove in my tracker after his impressive Chester win and thought even with the trainer it was an under the radar selection as he won on a Saturday on a non-tv card. No such luck. I'm not getting involved at his current price.

The only other race of interest is the Lennox where I've already lost on Cosmic Year but have also backed Jonquil. I'm not rampantly keen on him but I had to get involved as Kinross is a terrible fav at his current state of decline. It's a dodgepot race though, last year's atrocity a perfect example. Small stakes, better bets later in the week.
 
I think I have one for Tuesday. It's one of those stupid things I've heard and I'm probably reading too much into but at 20/1 I'll pay my money and lose it.

Vintage Stakes
Gharma Sutra

Sean Levey's interview after the winning debut is quite telling. This horse clearly has ability they weren't seeing at home in the spring. The story I heard is that Richard Hannon Jr enquired to Goffs if winning a Group 2 would mean a horse would have a penalty for the Goff Millions. You don't ask a question like that unless you think there is a chance you'll fall in on Tuesday.

Sean Levey interview:
m.attheraces.com

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Last year the stick reading was 7.3 the morning of the first day and Take Heart won the Chesterfield Cup off 95.

Now switched from Johnny Murtagh to David Menusier, with the stick a not dissimilar 7.0 last reading and five unplaced runs later, he runs off 95 again.

So he is handicapped to just about win it again and conditions will be similar.

But is the 5yo the horse he was?

If the price is right, I may pay the fee to find out.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Take Heart

Now switched from Johnny Murtagh to David Menusier, with the stick a not dissimilar 7.0 last reading and five unplaced runs later, he runs off 95 again.
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I'd have said 'transplanted' from Johnny Murtagh to David Menuisier 😁

Interesting observation though. He will be targeting this meeting and I'm hoping Toimy Son goes for a repeat in the big mile race.
 
I see they’ve stuck first time cheek pieces on Audience who goes to repeat last year’s win in the Lennox. He’s an in and out performer, but if he’s up for it and the pieces help keep him straight he shouldn’t be far away.
 
barjon said:
I see they’ve stuck first time cheek pieces on Audience who goes to repeat last year’s win in the Lennox. He’s an in and out performer, but if he’s up for it and the pieces help keep him straight he shouldn’t be far away.
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A race full of dodgepots. Alanyaabi is as talented as any of them on a going day. I saw 40s before declaration stage . I'll have some of that ew if its still there. Stable operating at 57% strike rate
 
I've taken 66/1 ew Dubai Future in the Goodwood cup. Ridden to pick up the pieces at Ascot. This shorter trip will make him more competitive. Jockey booking suggests they mean business. He's wildly overpriced here. Look at his win at Meydan in April.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Last year the stick reading was 7.3 the morning of the first day and Take Heart won the Chesterfield Cup off 95.

Now switched from Johnny Murtagh to David Menusier, with the stick a not dissimilar 7.0 last reading and five unplaced runs later, he runs off 95 again.

So he is handicapped to just about win it again and conditions will be similar.

But is the 5yo the horse he was?

If the price is right, I may pay the fee to find out.
Click to expand...
I've taken 14/1 Take Heart.
 
Slim said:
I think I have one for Tuesday. It's one of those stupid things I've heard and I'm probably reading too much into but at 20/1 I'll pay my money and lose it.

Vintage Stakes
Gharma Sutra

Sean Levey's interview after the winning debut is quite telling. This horse clearly has ability they weren't seeing at home in the spring. The story I heard is that Richard Hannon Jr enquired to Goffs if winning a Group 2 would mean a horse would have a penalty for the Goff Millions. You don't ask a question like that unless you think there is a chance you'll fall in on Tuesday.

Sean Levey interview:
m.attheraces.com

ATR Player | At The Races

At The Races - Digital partner to Sky Sports Racing. Get horse racing news, video replays, racecards, results, form, tips, features and odds comparison.
m.attheraces.com m.attheraces.com
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This is an interesting colt imo.

The sire, who is making a name for himself, never raced over less than a mile and the dam was a winner at the same trip.

She's produced a 6f winner, but I think this fella is the sire's only 6f winner so far.

His progeny seem to thrive over further given time.

This race has a chequered record over the years in terms of quality and takes a lot less winning most years than, say, when Troy won it in 1978.

I could see this one going close.
 
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Ian_Davies said:
The sire, who is making a name for himself, never raced over less than a mile and the dam was a winner at the trip.

She's produced a 6f winner, but I think this fella is the site's only 6f winnef so far.

His progeny seem to thrive over further given time.

This race has a chequered record over the years in terms of quality and takes a lot less winning most years than, say, when Troy win it in 1978.

I could see this one going close.
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I just love the fact that the hungry bastard rang Goffs. A Group 2 isn't enough for him
 
Robicheaux said:
Sir Busker at 33s looks big to me in the 1.20.
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I agree - it's a yard I keep an eye on, the overall strike rate isn't great, but among the ones that are "wanted" it's a lot better.

I absolutely squandered cash with a small bet on him for York without realising he could run off a lower mark anywhere else as he'd been down rated since the York weights were framed.

He did just that at Sandown Park and very nearly won at a gigantic price.

He's up a pound for that but he's never a 33/1 shot for this - I'd make him 16/1 to 20/1 tops.

Ok, that's like saying a horse has a 6% to 5% chance of winning when the market says 3%, but it's a slither of value for sure, even though he's a somewhat exposed veteran, hence vulnerable to "bumping into one."
 
Robicheaux said:
I've taken 66/1 ew Dubai Future in the Goodwood cup. Ridden to pick up the pieces at Ascot. This shorter trip will make him more competitive. Jockey booking suggests they mean business. He's wildly overpriced here. Look at his win at Meydan in April.
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I agree (again).

His ride in the Gold Cup was as close as you'll ever see - unless your name is Maurice 😂 - in a Group 1 to a "not busy" and he's hard to keep out of the frame* on the Meydan form.

*But it's the Dead Eight so you're kinda screwed each-way if something is taken out. 😂
 
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The horse may be gone at the game but in the 1.20 I've backed Ancient Rome (14/1) like it was a 5/1 shot. If it's fit, trying and not in terminal decline it should be odds on but I'm not sure if all three apply and I'm not sure I trust Spencer not to show off with a typical last-to-first ride. I think it's been trained all year for this.

It missed Goodwood last year having run in a G2 at Ascot earlier in July and taking in the G1 Arlington Million in August when rated 110 but it's now down to 100 having won this race two years ago off 105.

I thought I'd get my shekels on before jinnyj crashes the price :)
 
You've stolen my cliff pony, Mo! I've taken 16s on the exchanges and had a little ew on another Hay/Spencer combo in a later race - Jakajoro. Trained by Cowell and he's always one to keep an eye on over 5f.
 
jinnyj said:
You've stolen my cliff pony, Mo! I've taken 16s on the exchanges and had a little ew on another Hay/Spencer combo in a later race - Jakajoro. Trained by Cowell and he's always one to keep an eye on over 5f.
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Although I’ve backed Jakajaro again, he does need a wealth warning, and Jamie Spencer couldn’t find a route through on him at Ascot. Goodwood might be even harder, especially if they all come over to the stand side. He’s well drawn in 20 if they don’t. He is only 10/1 at the moment, but it is very likely Pricewise will tip him up in the RP tomorrow and he may then shorten further. Pricewise tipped him last time out at Ascot and was still aggrieved about his hard luck there when I listened to the In the Know podcast last Friday.
 
I've backed both AR and J in an ew double - see the longshot thread - at 142/1.

Smashing value for not a lot of money. If they both come in it will more than pay for my upcoming week in Spain.
 

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