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The 2025 Longshot Thread

Funnily enough I'd thought about the same e/w double as what Maurice has had with that Spencer Hay pair.

I'd give Witness Stand a chance he meets the threshold I think, he looked to be coming to form last time. 2 best performances arguably here over the 7f trying to give Qirat 13lb in rain softened ground last time he was here was no easy task with hindisght. Some questions about the market leaders so he's worth a small rattle or for me will be included in some ew multi's.
 
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Also just add Naqeeb in the first at about 28's or something like that. Ran a cracker at Ascot then dropped back in trip for the John Smiths cup got knocked about plenty in running had a real rough trip and wasn't disgraced. I was actually surprised at the tactics holding him up maybe more to do with the draw but having spent most of his career over further you'd think they'd want to have him handy and make a bit more use of his stamina maybe that's the case today or even that long straight at Goodwood gives him all the time in the world to work his way into it think the return to faster ground also favour him so hope it stays dry the rest of the day.
 
Goodwood 3.45. Twilight Jet could run a big one here, if he nabs the stand side rail.
Maybe a drop of rain would help. High class 2yo. Nearly popped up at a price during the Derby meeting. Still reasonably handicapped on past exploits.
 
Couldn't resist some sweetie money on Nostrum (125/1, 4 places) in the Lennox. Entitled to be in the mix for the places on his old form and I'm curious that O'Meara is persisting with it at this kind of level after two poor runs for the yard.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Couldn't resist some sweetie money on Nostrum (125/1, 4 places) in the Lennox. Entitled to be in the mix for the places on his old form and I'm curious that O'Meara is persisting with it at this kind of level after two poor runs for the yard.
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I thought it was a bit odd that Danny Tudhope doesn’t ride at Goodwood today, or tomorrow, as I quite liked Tundra Rose later on the card, but he rides at Ripon.
 
Danny said:
Also just add Naqeeb in the first at about 28's or something like that. Ran a cracker at Ascot then dropped back in trip for the John Smiths cup got knocked about plenty in running had a real rough trip and wasn't disgraced. I was actually surprised at the tactics holding him up maybe more to do with the draw but having spent most of his career over further you'd think they'd want to have him handy and make a bit more use of his stamina maybe that's the case today or even that long straight at Goodwood gives him all the time in the world to work his way into it think the return to faster ground also favour him so hope it stays dry the rest of the day.
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1st 25/1 2nd 28/1 ...2 first would've made a huge difference gotta be a rule 4 aswell foe Kinross which is a f$%*er as I wasn't worried about him at all.
 
Danny said:
Funnily enough I'd thought about the same e/w double as what Maurice has had with that Spencer Hay pair.

I'd give Witness Stand a chance he meets the threshold I think, he looked to be coming to form last time. 2 best performances arguably here over the 7f trying to give Qirat 13lb in rain softened ground last time he was here was no easy task with hindisght. Some questions about the market leaders so he's worth a small rattle or for me will be included in some ew multi's.
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I always said that Danny was a Judge.

Or should be in front of a Judge.
 
Unfvckingdaunted by today's cruel fates...

Thursday, 1.20 - Seagolazo 22/1, 5 places. Oisin Murphy could have been claimed by Balding for Best Adventure and could have been approached by Juddmonte for Calla Lagoon or possibly several others in the field but he rides Seagolazo for Hugo Palmer and is 13/29 (45%) for the trainer this season plus seven others in the first four. There has to be a fair chance a lot of persuasion has taken place to convince the poor wee soul to take the ride and the booking suggests the horse might be seriously better than the ratings and odds are saying.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Unfvckingdaunted by today's cruel fates...

Thursday, 1.20 - Seagolazo 22/1, 5 places. Oisin Murphy could have been claimed by Balding for Best Adventure and could have been approached by Juddmonte for Calla Lagoon or possibly several others in the field but he rides Seagolazo for Hugo Palmer and is 13/29 (45%) for the trainer this season plus seven others in the first four. There has to be a fair chance a lot of persuasion has taken place to convince the poor wee soul to take the ride and the booking suggests the horse might be seriously better than the ratings and odds are saying.
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Without wishing to undermine your reasoning, I think Shane Foley has been riding most of these Zhang Yuesheng horses recently (though Oisin Murphy has a decent record for them too) so probably couldn’t have been claimed by Balding.
 
In that 1.20 I am hoping Thunder Wonder might run well. When he stormed to victory at Musselburgh in April, I immediately envisaged him being a prime candidate for one of these handicaps at Goodwood. I was a bit disappointed when he won in the meantime, but I still think his mark is OK and this is the first time he has stepped up to 10f. Anyway, 40/1 is a very attractive price.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Without wishing to undermine your reasoning, I think Shane Foley has been riding most of these Zhang Yuesheng horses recently (though Oisin Murphy has a decent record for them too) so probably couldn’t have been claimed by Balding.
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I noticed Foley rode it to victory earlier in the season but others have ridden it since. Foley has ridden more for the owner but Murphy has the better strike rate. Anyone know if Foley is contracted to the owner for certain?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I noticed Foley rode it to victory earlier in the season but others have ridden it since. Foley has ridden more for the owner but Murphy has the better strike rate. Anyone know if Foley is contracted to the owner for certain?
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When Foley took over as Stable Jockey to Jessica Harrington in 2019, he already had an agreement with Yuesheng and that continued. As he has been hopping over this season for rides, I assume it is still in place.
 
In the Galway Plate, Adamantly Chosen at 20/1 is interesting. Big price for Mullins/Townsend runner in a big race.

Ashdale Bob 22/1 could also run well. He has never matched his hurdle form and at 10, it’s a worry he has only run in 7 chases and didn’t run in any in 2022 or 2023 after his Chase debut in 2021. His comeback run after 4 months off and under a 7lb claimer was decent though and may have set him up for a good run off 142.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Unfvckingdaunted by today's cruel fates...

Thursday, 1.20 - Seagolazo 22/1, 5 places. Oisin Murphy could have been claimed by Balding for Best Adventure and could have been approached by Juddmonte for Calla Lagoon or possibly several others in the field but he rides Seagolazo for Hugo Palmer and is 13/29 (45%) for the trainer this season plus seven others in the first four. There has to be a fair chance a lot of persuasion has taken place to convince the poor wee soul to take the ride and the booking suggests the horse might be seriously better than the ratings and odds are saying.
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Seagolazo is out to 33/1. I was tempted to go in again but instead I've taken out some sickness insurance on Best Adventure, generally 25s and 28s with PP. It's also weak - was 14s when I did the race on Tuesday - but it's second-top on my figures with the potential to be better again.

But the way things are going this week I'm as well wiping my arse with my notes and flushing them down the lavvy.
 
Yes, that drift is odd - especially since HP appears to be mildly bullish. Oisin Murphy supposedly and forcibly told him 'this horse wants 10f' after the last run. And soft ground wouldn't appear to be a potential problem, if it goes that way. Doesn't quite make sense. I'm committed at 28s last night (and that looked attractive).
 
Desijo said:
Ardisia 4.20 Goodwood tomorrow 33/1
Has won twice this season over 5 furlongs.
Got no sort of run at all in the super sprint at Newbury and looks to hold an each way chance at huge odds in an open looking contest.
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I thought so too and had a little on at that price last night.
 
Celandine 25/1 jm jungle 33/1 3.05 Goodwood tomorrow
Celandine is lightly raced and open to improvement.will hopefully handle ground
JM jungle is a very progressive sprinter who is very consistent.
Steps up in class and should handle underfoot conditions.
Two each way singles.
 

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