Trainers In Form

[walsworth]

Slightly better.

Liberty Bird	u/p
Binhareer (IRE)	2nd 7/2
More Thunder (IRE)	Won 6/4
Spirit Of Jura	u/p
Sixty Plus (IRE)	Won 5/2

 

[Ian_Davies]

I'm just not getting why Geoff Oldroyd isn't on your list, Walsey, me old chum.

Barnestormer even flagged him up to you.

After his 15/2 winner from one runner today, Oldroyd is two out of three the last fortnight and five winners from his last six runners!

 

[Slim]

I'm just not getting why Geoff Oldroyd isn't on your list, Walsey, me old chum.

Barnestormer even flagged him up to you.

After his 15/2 winner from one runner today, Oldroyd is two out of three the last fortnight and five winners from his last six runners!

He'll make the list after another two winners, when the stable is shutting down for the year.

 

[walsworth]

He may well be on the list tomorrow, I have to wait until Horseracebase updates latest results.

Just had a quick look, he has not had enough runners in the last 30 days.

 

[Ian_Davies]

He may well be on the list tomorrow, I have to wait until Horseracebase updates latest results.

Just had a quick look, he has not had enough runners in the last 30 days.

That's the downfall of using someone else's stats - I am sorry, but it's just ridiculous to be interested in trainers in form and excluding someone in the form Geoff Oldroyd has been in.

 

[walsworth]

We'll see, I'm sticking to the criteria that I have been using for nearly two years.

I have done lots of ridiculous things in my life and hope that I live long enough to do a few more.

 

[pawras]

By my stats Geoff Oldroyd is flying at the mo and the performance of his runners have been improving over the last 6 months

 

[walsworth]

From Horseracebase;

Recent Form By Days (All races)
Days	Runners	Wins	Win P/L	Win%	Place	Place%
7	2	1	6.5	50%	1	50%
14	3	2	9.5	67%	2	67%
30	9	5	26.5	56%	6	67%
60	15	5	20.5	33%	8	53%
90	20	7	46.88	35%	10	50%
180	34	11	56.04	32%	14	41%
365	60	15	54.29	25%	23	38%

[td]Recent Form By Days (All races)[/td]

​

 

[walsworth]

Just to clarify how I arrive at my list.

I’m only interested in trainers that have had 10 or more runners in the last 30 days and also have a strike rate in excess of 30%.

Then I check all their runners, discard anything with a forecast price of 8/1 or higher.

I rarely back anything that is outside the top three in the betting and rarely back in any race of more than 12 runners.

I like to see that a horse has been in the frame In it’s last two races and I’m very wary of 2yo races.

I also look at the Timeform comments on Betfair and normally like to see that the one I’m interested in is in the top three.

I do not bet on dodgy going, only G/F, GD, GD/S, or Irish equivalents.

I use a rule of thumb to determine value; deduct one from number of runners and divide by two, this is top price, divide by two again this is lowest price.
E.G. 8 runners.
I consider the best price for my selections to be between 7/2 and 7/4.

These are my guide criteria and I am not anal about sticking exactly to them and will make my final decision by gut instinct.

 

[Gullible]

Just to clarify how I arrive at my list.

I’m only interested in trainers that have had 10 or more runners in the last 30 days and also have a strike rate in excess of 30%.

Then I check all their runners, discard anything with a forecast price of 8/1 or higher.

I rarely back anything that is outside the top three in the betting and rarely back in any race of more than 12 runners.

I like to see that a horse has been in the frame In it’s last two races and I’m very wary of 2yo races.

I also look at the Timeform comments on Betfair and normally like to see that the one I’m interested in is in the top three.

I do not bet on dodgy going, only G/F, GD, GD/S, or Irish equivalents.

I use a rule of thumb to determine value; deduct one from number of runners and divide by two, this is top price, divide by two again this is lowest price.
E.G. 8 runners.
I consider the best price for my selections to be between 7/2 and 7/4.

These are my guide criteria and I am not anal about sticking exactly to them and will make my final decision by gut instinct.

If it works for you that is all that matters Sir

 

[walsworth]

Appleby, Charlie

Bowen, Mickey

Burrows, Owen

Curling, S

Haggas, W J

Johnston, Charlie

Owen, J P

Prescott, Sir Mark

Rothwell, P J

Tickle, J

 

[walsworth]

Race	Horse	Jockey	Odds
3.42 Pontefract	No Alibi (USA)	Tudhope, Daniel	3.25
4.52 Southwell	Whatsgoingonmarvin (IRE)	Mulrennan, Paul	2.5

 

[Slim]

All that work to back one ridden by Paul Mulrennan at Southwell. That will be a lay on the crooked jockeys at gaff tracks system.

 

[walsworth]

If I can't get better than 2/1 Whatsgoingonmarvin will not be a bet.

 

[walsworth]

@Slim, really can't understand the Southwell market, it seemed as all the money was for the Prescott horse.

Just one possibility today:

4.21 Windsor

Pergola (IRE)

Marquand, Tom

2.88

​

 

[walsworth]

Not been my week!
May not post tomorrow as I have to be in London at 12 for a bone marrow biopsy.

 

[Ian_Davies]

Not been my week!
May not post tomorrow as I have to be in London at 12 for a bone marrow biopsy.

Fingers crossed for you as always.

 

[Mr Whatoxo]

Not been my week!
May not post tomorrow as I have to be in London at 12 for a bone marrow biopsy.

Hope your week improves dramatically and the best of luck tomorrow. All the best.

 

[walsworth]

Latest list, not been up to much lately.

Boughey, George

Bromhead, Henry De

Crisford, Simon

Donoghue, Ian

Haggas, W J

Murray, Adrian

Oldroyd, G R

Owen, J P

Tickle, J

 

[Barnestormer]

Latest list, not been up to much lately.

Boughey, George

Bromhead, Henry De

Crisford, Simon

Donoghue, Ian

Haggas, W J

Murray, Adrian

Oldroyd, G R

Owen, J P

Tickle, J

Glad to see Mr Oldroyd made your list even though he drew a blank at York last week as did most of the northern trainers.
However his three runners collectively were beaten less than a length and a half!!!!!

 

[pawras]

I've been playing about with trainer jockey combos "in form", so using data up to and inc 23/8/25 and those with rides today and tomorrow I generated my report.
Then looked at those combos who've had >=10 rides the last 30 days and their prb2 for that period has been >= 50 , I got the following.

 

[simmo]

John McConnell and Alex Harvey. Sensational.

 

[pawras]

John McConnell and Alex Harvey. Sensational.

for the last 30 day 17 runners , 6 winners , strike 35.3% , lsp £32.8, prior that the number of winners drop drammatically

 

[edgt]

Jessie Harrington is expecting a big weekend.
Look out for her runners in Beverley, Chester and further afield.

 

[pawras]

John McConnell and Alex Harvey. Sensational.

I see at Bellewstown today that pair were 1st in the 1725 isp 1/1, and 2nd in the 1825 isp 13/2.