• REGISTER NOW!! Why? Because you can't do much without having been registered!

    At the moment you have limited access to view all discussions - and most importantly, you haven't joined our community. What are you waiting for? Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join Join Talking Horses here!

The 2025 York August Meeting Day 4 (Saturday) Thread

Done 2 in the Constantine 6f hcap.
Pocklington. 10/1
Northern ticker. 28/1 boosted to 35/1 betfair.

NT wont be that price on Saturday especially if it gets a good draw.
big eyecatcher last time.
 
Saturday of the Ebor meeting where the actual Ebor is the fourth most interesting race of the day. Can't beat it.

I've backed King's Gambit in the Strensall at 11/2 and have a nice possie in the City of York being on the French horse at 8s and I have Never so Brave in a couple of rollovers. Cannot have Rosallion.

In the Melrose I have Daiquiri Bay although slightly worried about him staying.
 
Very pleasing decs with Fox Legacy not going in the King's Gambit race. Maranoa Charlie still very backable in the Group 1 and he's a front runner so unless that prick Quinault troubles him he should have a great chance. I'm gonna top up and put some IR lays in an short prices.
 
I've taken 11/2 Bullet Point for the Strensall. He’s only got three lengths on my figures to find with [top-rated] King’s Gambit but he showed he was still improving yesterday, won with a bit in hand and looks likely to be suited by this near-furlong extra on striding data. He was heavily backed yesterday and if they turn him out again there must be a chance the money will come again. If there's no money then I'll have to accept he's not 'expected' but I'd hope they just take him out if that's the case and I could get my money back.
 
I just want to give the forum overnight notice that, despite the absence of an impending edge to get really excited about - like a storm appearing out of nowhere to compound the related-contingency value of any Knavesmire glue pot monsters among the declarations - I am nevertheless in the process of constructing a Saturday York multiple so hideously lethal in its components as to make the latest Russian, Chinese or North Korean hypersonic missile look like a slightly wonky peashooter.

More on this in the morning.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I just want to give the forum overnight notice that, despite the absence of an impending edge to get really excited about - like a storm appearing out of nowhere to compound the related-contingency value of any Knavesmire glue pot monsters among the declarations - I am nevertheless in the process of constructing a Saturday York multiple so hideously lethal in its components as to make the latest Russian, Chinese or North Korean hypersonic missile look like a slightly wonky peashooter.

More on this in the morning.
Click to expand...
Looking forward to it, but probably won’t sleep tonight now 😀
 
Ian_Davies said:
I just want to give the forum overnight notice that, despite the absence of an impending edge to get really excited about - like a storm appearing out of nowhere to compound the related-contingency value of any Knavesmire glue pot monsters among the declarations - I am nevertheless in the process of constructing a Saturday York multiple so hideously lethal in its components as to make the latest Russian, Chinese or North Korean hypersonic missile look like a slightly wonky peashooter.

More on this in the morning.
Click to expand...
Amused.
 
Robicheaux said:
Ron O in the last race at 25s appeals. Only bet365 pricing it up. Can't imagine it being bigger.
Why the f%*& haven't Hills priced up anything yet ?
Click to expand...
I've come to agree with you Robbie.
Unlucky in this race last year behind sir busker but is 6lb better off with him tomorrow.
Took 25/1.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've taken 11/2 Bullet Point for the Strensall. He’s only got three lengths on my figures to find with [top-rated] King’s Gambit but he showed he was still improving yesterday, won with a bit in hand and looks likely to be suited by this near-furlong extra on striding data. He was heavily backed yesterday and if they turn him out again there must be a chance the money will come again. If there's no money then I'll have to accept he's not 'expected' but I'd hope they just take him out if that's the case and I could get my money back.
Click to expand...

Money for it apparently so hopes rise...
 
All my bets are on now so these are my thoughts on the races I've bet in bar the Ebor which is on that thread.

1.50 - I’ve taken 11/2 Bullet Point. He’s only got three lengths on my figures to find with King’s Gambit but he showed he was still improving on Thursday, won with a bit in hand and looks likely to be suited by this near-furlong extra on striding data. If he doesn’t run I’ll get my money back, in which case I’ll leave the race alone.

3.00 - Rosallion should probably win this and arguably should be odds-on to do so. He’s the only proper G1 horse in the race. If Audience goes off as he can he’ll hopefully set the race up for him but if he gets away that 18/1 could look generous. Never So Brave is the curve horse and likely to give the ‘big two’ most to do.

4.10 - I’m just going to back my top three against the field. The top two [Twilight Calls and Commanche Falls] were first and second on the wrong side in the Stewards’ Cup and are rated as having run close to their best form of the last year since the form stacks up behind them over there. I can’t help thinking surely they’re aiming [third-top] Jordan Electrics at Ayr but I have to back it here at the price just in case. Saint Lawrence will carry some sickness insurance and it will need to go up the ratings to get into the race at Ayr but it’s probably just in decline.

5.20 - [Top rated] Greek Order could be targeting the Cambridgeshire, in which case they wouldn’t want to be winning this so I’m taking a chance in not backing it. Rowan Scott doesn’t ride for the yard so I’m also passing over [second top rated] Tony Montana. Sir Busker [joint third top] is worth a punt at decent enough odds given his back class. Westridge easily landed a touch at Goodwood but you have to imagine the Gosdens’ usual jockeys would have been offered the ride. They tend not to call on Moore. He’s another that could be targeting the Cambridgeshire. Given the doubts about some of these, Ron O might be worth a pop at longish odds and I’ll have some sickness insurance on Seagolazo which never got into the race at Goodwood.
 
Checkandchallenge 1.50
Skukuza 1.50
Sea Of Kings 2.25
Quinault 3.00
Lake Forest 3.00
Hipop De Loire 3.35 York
Twilight Calls 4.10 York
Jordan Electrics 4.10 York
Erzindjan 5.20 York
Sir Busker 5.20 York

Perm that lot and when six of them cop no one is going anywhere near the area without a radiation suit for MONTHS.

Good luck, everyone!
 
Desert Orchid said:
All my bets are on now so these are my thoughts on the races I've bet in bar the Ebor which is on that thread.

1.50 - I’ve taken 11/2 Bullet Point. He’s only got three lengths on my figures to find with King’s Gambit but he showed he was still improving on Thursday, won with a bit in hand and looks likely to be suited by this near-furlong extra on striding data. If he doesn’t run I’ll get my money back, in which case I’ll leave the race alone.

3.00 - Rosallion should probably win this and arguably should be odds-on to do so. He’s the only proper G1 horse in the race. If Audience goes off as he can he’ll hopefully set the race up for him but if he gets away that 18/1 could look generous. Never So Brave is the curve horse and likely to give the ‘big two’ most to do.

4.10 - I’m just going to back my top three against the field. The top two [Twilight Calls and Commanche Falls] were first and second on the wrong side in the Stewards’ Cup and are rated as having run close to their best form of the last year since the form stacks up behind them over there. I can’t help thinking surely they’re aiming [third-top] Jordan Electrics at Ayr but I have to back it here at the price just in case. Saint Lawrence will carry some sickness insurance and it will need to go up the ratings to get into the race at Ayr but it’s probably just in decline.

5.20 - [Top rated] Greek Order could be targeting the Cambridgeshire, in which case they wouldn’t want to be winning this so I’m taking a chance in not backing it. Rowan Scott doesn’t ride for the yard so I’m also passing over [second top rated] Tony Montana. Sir Busker [joint third top] is worth a punt at decent enough odds given his back class. Westridge easily landed a touch at Goodwood but you have to imagine the Gosdens’ usual jockeys would have been offered the ride. They tend not to call on Moore. He’s another that could be targeting the Cambridgeshire. Given the doubts about some of these, Ron O might be worth a pop at longish odds and I’ll have some sickness insurance on Seagolazo which never got into the race at Goodwood.
Click to expand...
In the 3.00, it does look likely the race will be run to suit Rosallion, as Audience and/or Quinault, are likely to go off very fast, possibly to the detriment of each other. I couldn’t be backing him at his short price though, especially with slight doubts about his recent fitness. I’ve backed Audience and am hoping for the best at 18/1.

The 4.10 looks too complicated for me, with a large number looking like they have either already won their main target, or are being prepared for it later in the season. Jubilee Walk was a bit unlucky here last time and will probably run well. Northern Ticker could easily improve to win it too, but neither are big enough prices to tempt me in. I’ve backed St Lawrence at 80/1 and had a little on We Never Stop at 100/1, in the hope he is just as good on Turf, as he showed on the AW in the winter. Kevin Ryan runners always worth considering here.

5.20 Zain Blue for me. Was going to put him on the Longshot thread, but nibbled at into 16/1 now.
 
Backed King's Gambit ante-post for this at 11/2 when the very dangerous Fox Legacy was in the race and I find today that he's drifted to 5/1. I'll top up at that price and hope for the best - the handicappers he's facing are mostly progressive so you never know although Gladius seems way too short given his mark.

I thought I had the City of York sorted ante-post. I took nice prices about Maranoa Charlie a while ago and with market leaders Notable Speech and Rosallion both aiming for the Marois felt the only danger was Never so Brave and I managed to get a couple of rollvers onto him via Prince of India in the Shergar Cup and Sons and Lovers at Leopardstown (thanks Slim). However Hannon, the twat, bottled the Marois and now Rosallion lines up. This is far from ideal and whilst if I'm being bullish I can point to him not being to haul in a handicapper in the Sussex I do realise he has a class advantage here. Just have to hope he stays with Lake Forest at the back of the field and runs through fast and late for a place.

I've also got Daiquiri Bay running off of my tracker in the Melrose. Took 10/1 when prices were unveiled.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Checkandchallenge 1.50
Skukuza 1.50
Sea Of Kings 2.25
Quinault 3.00
Lake Forest 3.00
Hipop De Loire 3.35 York
Twilight Calls 4.10 York
Jordan Electrics 4.10 York
Erzindjan 5.20 York
Sir Busker 5.20 York

Perm that lot and when six of them cop no one is going anywhere near the area without a radiation suit for MONTHS.

Good luck, everyone!
Click to expand...
I think you burgled my notes overnight Ian, because I have four of the same horses and I only picked one horse in each race.

I'm spirituality torn in the Melrose. I've followed and backed Novelista the last three times.

The first time I thought he was put to the front way too soon on his first try at 1M6F, the next time he couldn't get there in time when finishing fast and was denied in a head bob, and then last time, we'll I just can't work out that run.

He was over the shorter distance of 1M4F and didn't appear to see it out, and that run has really made it difficult for one to predict what he might do today.

Mind you, Charlie Johnston said before that race he was aiming him at this race, and he has been well backed overnight.
Do I give him another go or back Euro's fancy Daiquiri Bay, who I also think has a chance.

I had a feeling after Novelista's last run that he could be an even better horse if they gelded him. Charlie Johnston seems to leave a lot of handicappers ungelded for longer periods of time than other trainers.

Good luck today guys, I've enjoyed reading the analysis on here.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Apparently this is his final race, so Happy Retirement to him, he's been a great servant to his connections.
Click to expand...
That had not escaped my attention.

Plus Sir Busker won it last year, he is 5lb lower now and the yard is one that I think goes under a few radars - the strike rate when their runners are wanted is markedly different from their record overall and they've already had a winner at the meeting this week plus they had the one-two in this last year with Dual Identity - they do alright from limited real opportunities at the top table.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Checkandchallenge 1.50
Skukuza 1.50
Sea Of Kings 2.25
Quinault 3.00
Lake Forest 3.00
Hipop De Loire 3.35 York
Twilight Calls 4.10 York
Jordan Electrics 4.10 York
Erzindjan 5.20 York
Sir Busker 5.20 York

Perm that lot and when six of them cop no one is going anywhere near the area without a radiation suit for MONTHS.

Good luck, everyone!
Click to expand...
In the nicest possible way, I hope you have a bit of a stinker after Checkandchallenge. Not only am I not on any of the others, Sea of Kings, Lake Forest and Erzindjan are my three Tracker horses for the day and I have chosen to ignore them all. I was on Erzindjan last time at a very big price (as was DO) and he ran a great race, but the pace was too slow for him to get any nearer. I decided then the Cambridgeshire might be the race for him and I am waiting for that. He could well win today, but price not tempting me in a tricky race.
 
With Euro on Maranoa Charlie. A proper 7f horse.
A couple of bad runs to forgive but I think Military Code's other 3 runs were very promising and have backed him in the 4:45.
Also, like a few others here, I like Enemy in the Ebor. 40/1 with 6 places is appealing.
 

Recent Blog Posts

Back
Top