Ian_Davies
Conditional
That shrewd judge Robicheaux at humongous prices - I think he backed it for this when it was a foal.
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The 2025 Ebor Handicap
- Thread starter Ian_Davies
- Start date
Slim
Rookie
- Joined
- Dec 6, 2019
- Messages
- 4,157
I was trying to remember who tipped it up. I think the horse has a beautiful profile for the race — nicely unexposed at a trip you can’t be certain he’ll get, but he looks like he wants it and could improve the 7–8lb required to give Willie a race. He’s the only horse outside the favourite that has interested me ante-post for the race.
Slim
Rookie
- Joined
- Dec 6, 2019
- Messages
- 4,157
It seems that Johnny Murtagh gave the horse and jockey a big mention at Leopardstown last night before winning the last race.
Oh how the race has changed. During the years when I was quite good at picking the winner I remember arriving at the racecourse not knowing if the horse I had backed, Sesenta was actually going to run and being relieved to find that she was. At the bottom of the handicap and with a claimer on board it was when Willie Mullins rarely sent runners over to England. I loved watching the horses in the pre parade ring walking round under the dappled shade of the trees. Even that has changed, I believe.
Ian_Davies
Conditional
In the RP's latest epic fail in the behind-a-paywall department, we are teased with "she has been crying out for this step up in trip"
Err, Siege Of Troy is the only filly in the field.
Err, Siege Of Troy is the only filly in the field.
Robicheaux
Apprentice
Bollocks. Don't tell those oafs have latched onto it
I think Faylaq has just broken down at Hamilton. I do hope I’m wrong…
Ian_Davies
Conditional
In all fairness you were 18 days ahead of them.
Robicheaux
Apprentice
They rarely work out when I'm well over the odds, as has happened twice this week. We'll soon find out.
Mr Whatoxo
Amateur Rider
It's a devilishly difficult race in which I've gone small stakes on Subsequent 125/1, Stressfree 66/1 and most recently Enemy 30/1 (though I'm hoping for better).
The argument for these is:
Subsequent - Andrew Balding & Oisin Murphy - difficult to ignore in these races and price was so big I couldn't let it run without something on.
Stressfree - has only tried this trip once, at Goodwood's big meeting. Paul Mulrennan rode it that day, seemingly to see if it stayed. He was noticeably less animated than his rivals, but when he went to put him in the race his path was blocked and he eventually came home in his own time. Based on a good run earlier in the season, at York and over 1m 4f, when he wasn't stopping, I think the longer trip may suit and could be a threat here. David O'Meara trains.
Enemy - I'm warming to this one. He hasn't shown the kind of form that could win this race since March 2024 (when Richard Kingscote rode him at Meydan). but is extremely well handicapped on that form. First time cheekpieces and Kingscote back on board for the first time since then. His run in the Shergar Cup was his best this season and the very slow pace there wasn't helpful to his chances. He moved quite nicely into that race, before his effort petered out. Possibly a bit outpaced at the end. He's run in this race in 2022 and 2023, beaten about 12l both times. However, he was running off 11 and 12 pounds higher then. Off 98 tomorrow, he might be a contender. So, I'd say he is my first choice now.
The argument for these is:
Subsequent - Andrew Balding & Oisin Murphy - difficult to ignore in these races and price was so big I couldn't let it run without something on.
Stressfree - has only tried this trip once, at Goodwood's big meeting. Paul Mulrennan rode it that day, seemingly to see if it stayed. He was noticeably less animated than his rivals, but when he went to put him in the race his path was blocked and he eventually came home in his own time. Based on a good run earlier in the season, at York and over 1m 4f, when he wasn't stopping, I think the longer trip may suit and could be a threat here. David O'Meara trains.
Enemy - I'm warming to this one. He hasn't shown the kind of form that could win this race since March 2024 (when Richard Kingscote rode him at Meydan). but is extremely well handicapped on that form. First time cheekpieces and Kingscote back on board for the first time since then. His run in the Shergar Cup was his best this season and the very slow pace there wasn't helpful to his chances. He moved quite nicely into that race, before his effort petered out. Possibly a bit outpaced at the end. He's run in this race in 2022 and 2023, beaten about 12l both times. However, he was running off 11 and 12 pounds higher then. Off 98 tomorrow, he might be a contender. So, I'd say he is my first choice now.
Jayhawk
Amateur Rider
Ian Williams was asked about the chances of his three Ebor runners during Thursday's Racing League coverage. He was a bit concerned about Oneforthegutter ( 3rd last year and in form this season ) and Real Dream being drawn wide, but he did admit that Enemy had shown " an inkling of ability at Ascot ". I've had a look back at the 2024 Ebor discussion and I think Robicheaux mentioned Oneforthegutter then, but nobody has so far this year.
Stressfree was one of a number of horses ridden at the back at Goodwood with an eye for future races. ( French Duke was only third today, and Master Builder didn't even make the cut for this year's Ebor. ) David O'Meara thinks he is best suited by good ground rather than anything quicker. The time of the mile and a half handicap today was slow by 0.52s so the ground shouldn't be too firm.
I shall probably do singles and the reverse forecast on both Hipop De Loire and Ethical Diamond. I like Willie Mullins's runners in the big British staying handicaps though it is not unknown for the unfancied one(s) to run well too. Most are campaigned openly.
Robicheaux
Apprentice
Enemy now gone 50s. I'll have a bit of that as well.
I put up a case for him in the Shergar Cup, but as you said they crawled round + went no pace. I personally think the Cesareawitch may be his target, but he's so well handicapped now, I can't ignore him when there's a big pot going.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 27,896
Hipop De Loire is rated as having dead-heated with Magical Zoe last year and was definitely seriously hampered on his way through. He might even have won so is the one to beat here off 3lbs higher. Keane rode him last year and I imagine will be riding him to avoid the kind of trip he got that day. Was Keane trying to show off, coming on the bridle through a crowd of opponents? We’ll see. I’ll have enough on him to cover the other bets. My big bet, taken ante-post after Goodwood, is 20/1 Shadow Dance. They haven’t messed about with him this season, trying to shape his mark. I reckon they’ve known from the start of the season he has the easy winning of this race and a saunter round over just 10f at Goodwood would have teed him up for this. I can’t help thinking he has a 130 on the scale in him. Yashin is a good longshot. He’s off the same mark as when placed two years ago and on my figures is better again on his Sandown win earlier this season. The claimer is operating at 14% this season and showing an overall profit to level stakes. That’s not half bad. This is his first ride for the trainer and has presumably been sought out. French Master will carry a win saver since he might well be another Trawlerman who also won this for the Gosdens. Siege Of Troy’s good claimer makes him interesting but his price has shortened a fair bit. The other one I like is Majestic Warrior who looks, like Shadow Dance, to have been pretty much saved for this all season. I took 125/1 Subsequent when I saw he was running instead of Mount Atlas and I’m happy enough with that bet. As ever, it’s a hugely competitive race and I wouldn’t put anyone off anything but I’ll stick with these.
Mr Whatoxo
Amateur Rider
Jason Weaver had gone for Enemy - giving same reasoning as on here. Matt Chapman very dismissive and thinks he is too exposed & making up the numbers. Let’s hope Jason knows best.
Trainer said he had the best draw of all of his runners so I don’t understand the drift.
Mr Whatoxo
Amateur Rider
He is back to 40/1 now. I'm not worried about the drift at this stage as others are being backed, so some have to drift. Remember the same connections had Aalto nearly winning the Bunbury Cup last month after drifting from 14/1 to 40/1. If you fancy Enemy, you don't have to be put off.
I did back him soon after the trainer said he had the best draw. Although I think, in recent years the winner has come from high and low. Can make a case for just about every horse in the race. When I could pick the winner of the race I always used to back 5 year olds from the bottom of the handicap but it’s such a different race now.
T
Terry B
Guest
Horse | Problty | System | Bookie | Value |
| French Master | 0.335892035 | 2/1 | 7/1 | VALUE |
| Shadow Dance | 0.272661372 | 11/4 | 7/1 | VALUE |
| Ethical Diamond | 0.233555261 | 10/3 | 6/1 | VALUE |
Happy with Stressfree 4th.
Mr Whatoxo
Amateur Rider
Me too, but I only had 66’s. He ran very well, as did 2 more of your original selections.
I wouldn’t give upon Shadow Dance either.
T
Terry B
Guest
I said he was a false fav any I'm pulling the plug on this site can't any postings I've done I've had a good day 11/1 winner got 7/1 the Ebor winner but I can't find my post can you
