Point Blank: ‘The Lads’ Have a Ryan Moore Problem

[Slim]

Ombuds,man to swerve Leopardstown.

I don’t see how that affects him running at Ascot.

 

[pawras]

Following on from reading Slim's substack I've been having a ponder on who should Ballydoyle look to while stable jockey Ryan Moore is out of action?

Those who get upset by spreadsheets look away now.......

Given that their second stable jockey Wayne Lordan is facing a 10-day ban this is even more pressing.
Christophe Soumillon has already been lined up to take over some of his rides, but should he be their first port of call?

To try and find some answers, I’ve set out to measure the performance of flat jockeys who ride in UK/IRE by 3 difference metrics, focusing on the last 6 months but also casting an eye on different time periods, using data up to and including the 31st August 2025.

First of all, looking at pure win strike rate over the last 6 months for jockeys who have had at least 50 rides, Ryan is the clear leader of the pack and neither Wayne or Christophe are in the next 5.



Next looking at percentage runners beaten squared metric, this differs from the pure percentage runners beaten metric in that more weight is given to those near the front. Again Ryan is leader of the pack and neither Wayne or Christophe are in the next 5



The final metric being £’s per run to get a view of who is getting the results in the big races. Here Mickael Barzalona pips Ryan Moore for top spot.



If not for him being contracted to the Aga Khan studs, Mickael Barzalona would have been my first port of call but with him and many others at the top being retained jockeys, it’s not surprising Christophe Soumillon got the call.

I was talking to @Danny about this and I agree with him that I’d like to see Ballydoyle give some of Ryan’s rides to someone young, hungry and eager to prove themselves.
On that basis I agree that young Billy Loughnane fits the bill as he’s in my top 20 for both strike and prb2’s over the last 6 months, but George Boughey made a shrewd move and made him first string jockey in January this year, maybe Ballydoyle could get a loan?

 

[Slim]

That’s simply not how Aidan O’Brien operates. If they were doing that, they’d use Dylan Browne McMonagle. Christophe Soumillon is someone they trust. They’ll use Tom Marquand and Sean Levey in the UK, and they’ll use Soumillon in France and while Lordan is out. Other than that, Lordan will have first pick on everything when he’s available. The idea of using metrics to make decisions like this just isn’t real life — all those jockeys have retainers, and “young and hungry” is no good for one of the big races.

 

[pawras]

Meh, Loughnane has been riding really well the last 6 months and was champion AW jockey 24/25, I'd just be happy to see a young lad like that get a shot at the top class races.

 

[Slim]

Meh, Loughnane has been riding really well the last 6 months and was champion AW jockey 24/25, I'd just be happy to see a young lad like that get a shot at the top class races.

All weather versus Group 1 races.

 

[Danny]

Tbh Slims right in the way thats not how Ballydoyle operates. I can understand that's how other people view it that when something like this happens you reach for a big name big race rider. For me the likes of Soumillion, Frankie and even Colin Keane to some extent they can all show a bit of magic from time to time but were all capable of some proper howlers. It was a bit like the Keiran Shoemark thing where he's booted off because he in people's eyes "Isn't a big race jockey" then you watch all the supposed "big race jockeys" make a complete bollocks of the Sussex, the Eclipse and the juddmonte. A hatrick of f%*& ups in quick succession on the biggest stage.

I dont personally watch these fellas close enough or keep track these days to give a proper opinion on jockeys without trying to sound like Davies I dont really care past the ones who ride what I bet on. I'll blacklist jockeys who cost me a few times with shite rides and if a jockeys won a few for me im just happy to see him on board when I see he's riding the horse i've picked.

And dont diss the AW Slim, Wolverhampton's on par with Meydan easily

 

[Ian_Davies]

An interesting discussion, gentlemen, but, seeing as it's not something we can directly have a bet on, it's largely academic.

That said, pawras's stats-based approach is always valuable when it indicates probabilities going forwards that are at variance with current betting markets.

In terms of the subject at hand, Slim didn't need a spreadsheet to know they'd be headed in the direction of Christophe Soumillon, many of us didn't need much convincing that was the most plausible solution they'd opt for, and so it proved.

The world is not yet entirely stats driven - and stats users should rejoice, for their betting edges would evaporate if it was.

 

[pawras]

Going forward I think Loughnane will get more shots at a higher level cos interestingly in 2024 he rode in 30 group races and won or placed in 11 of them, then in 2025 so far he's rode in 29 group races and and won or placed in 9 of them

The numbers back up Slim's point that Lordan is no sub for Moore and should impact the odds accordingly, personally I don't think Soumillon is either, plus the few in his league aren't likely to be available

 

[Slim]

An interesting discussion, gentlemen, but, seeing as it's not something we can directly have a bet on, it's largely academic.

That said, pawras's stats-based approach is always valuable when it indicates probabilities going forwards that are at variance with current betting markets.

In terms of the subject at hand, Slim didn't need a spreadsheet to know they'd be headed in the direction of Christophe Soumillon, many of us didn't need much convincing that was the most plausible solution they'd opt for, and so it proved.

The world is not yet entirely stats driven - and stats users should rejoice, for their betting edges would evaporate if it was.

It’s not “academic” just because you can’t bet on it today. Data drives the markets, but often without nuance.

Take Wayne Lordan as an example — if you strip out the rides where he’s clearly on the second string, you end up with a completely different set of numbers. One dataset says he’s ordinary, another says he’s solid, and the truth will play out in the market over the coming months.

That’s why these discussions matter — they frame how edges appear or disappear long before the prices do.

 

[pawras]

It’s not “academic” just because you can’t bet on it today. Data drives the markets, but often without nuance.

Take Wayne Lordan as an example — if you strip out the rides where he’s clearly on the second string, you end up with a completely different set of numbers. One dataset says he’s ordinary, another says he’s solid, and the truth will play out in the market over the coming months.

That’s why these discussions matter — they frame how edges appear or disappear long before the prices do.

Would you say those rides are where him and Ryan are in the same race?

 

[Slim]

Would you say those rides are where him and Ryan are in the same race?

If you wanted to run the figures, I would simply use the races where Lordan is on the shortest BSP of the O’Brien runners.
.

 

[pawras]

If you wanted to run the figures, I would simply use the races where Lordan is on the shortest BSP of the O’Brien runners.
.

such as my trainer prb2 , jockey prb2 , trainerjockey prb2 functions, are generic and work for any over any time period, but to do this will require special exception code, a ballache but it's likely to scratch at my brain until I know the answer....

 

[Slim]

such as my trainer prb2 , jockey prb2 , trainerjockey prb2 functions, are generic and work for any over any time period, but to do this will require special exception code, a ballache but it's likely to scratch at my brain until I know the answer....

No data worth having is easy!

 

[Coach miguel]

I’ve heard that Soumillon was already contacted yesterday morning about coming over to ride for them regularly. I don’t know if this will be announced publicly or not.

He already rides out at ballydoyle on ocassions usually before big races. He knows the set up well and has no retainers so perfect for coolmore while Moore is out.

 

[pawras]

No data worth having is easy!

I'm pondering how to construct the special case code for Wayne Lordan where he's either on his own or if there's more than him riding for o'brien, his ride is the shortest odds

 

[pawras]

Haven't gone as far as creating a 'special case' jockey prb2 function, but went for a more quick and dirty option of just calculating win strike rates over the last 365 days for Wayne Lordan

Number of rides = 447
Number of wins = 79
Strike rate % = 17.7%

Number of rides with no AP O'Brien runners in the race unless ridden by Wayne = 304
Number of wins with no AP O'Brien runners in the race unless ridden by Wayne = 51
Strike rate % = 16.8%

Number of rides with 1 or more AP O'Brien runners in the race not ridden by Wayne = 143
Number of wins with 1 or more AP O'Brien runners in the race not ridden by Wayne = 28
Strike rate % = 19.6%

Number of rides with 1 or more AP O'Brien runners in the race not ridden by Wayne but Wayne's ride has the shorter odds = 43
Number of wins with 1 or more AP O'Brien runners in the race not ridden by Wayne but Wayne's ride has the shorter odds = 18
Strike rate % = 41.9%

 

[Danny]

but went for a more quick and dirty option

When you actually think about it, is there ever any other option ? Have around a 98% strike rate with this myself.

 

[Ian_Davies]

No data worth having is easy!

It's easy for my main collaborator, "Leafy," he gets me to do the work!

But the point is well made - any edge-giving data that is easy to find will be equally quick to evaporate when the world and his wife cotton on to it.

 

[pawras]

So for comparison I did the same stats for Ryan Moore over the last 365 days

Number of rides = 468
Number of wins = 114
Strike rate % = 24.4%

Number of rides with no AP O'Brien runners in the race unless ridden by Ryan = 359
Number of wins with no AP O'Brien runners in the race unless ridden by Ryan = 72
Strike rate % = 20.1%

Number of rides with 1 or more AP O'Brien runners in the race not ridden by Ryan = 109
Number of wins with 1 or more AP O'Brien runners in the race not ridden by Ryan = 42
Strike rate % = 38.5%

Number of rides with 1 or more AP O'Brien runners in the race not ridden by Ryan but Ryan's ride has the shorter odds = 103
Number of wins with 1 or more AP O'Brien runners in the race not ridden by Ryan but Ryan's ride has the shorter odds = 41
Strike rate % = 39.8%

 

[Slim]

Apologies for hijacking my own thread (spit), but Pawras, could you tell me what the strike rates are for FTO 2yo winners for the trainers in the 2.20 at Ascot today? I’ve an awful feeling there’s a lot of hype in this market.

 

[pawras]

Interesting that when Wayne is on what is likely the first string of a race with multiple O'Brien entries , he does just as well as Ryan, all be it over a smaller sample

 

[pawras]

Apologies for hijacking my own thread (spit), but Pawras, could you tell me what the strike rates are for FTO 2yo winners for the trainers in the 2.20 at Ascot today? I’ve an awful feeling there’s a lot of hype in this market.

Doing real life work stuff, if I get a suitable break at lunchtime then yes, but over what time span to check?

What about the two runners with prev form?

 

[Slim]

Doing real life work stuff, if I get a suitable break at lunchtime then yes, but over what time span to check?

Later today/tomorrow is fine. I just think Kaladan might be completely underrated here. It’s unusual to have a 2yo race this late in the season with so much of the field making its debut. Behike is the sexy one the market wants, but he was supposed to run in July — the trainer was hoping he’d be fast enough for 6f first time out, so something went wrong along the way. Just an interesting little race.

 

[Slim]

Interesting that when Wayne is on what is likely the first string of a race with multiple O'Brien entries , he does just as well as Ryan, all be it over a smaller sample

I love it though — data is dirtier than that legally blind girl I met in Tallaght.

 

[pawras]

Later today/tomorrow is fine. I just think Kaladan might be completely underrated here. It’s unusual to have a 2yo race this late in the season with so much of the field making its debut. Behike is the sexy one the market wants, but he was supposed to run in July — the trainer was hoping he’d be fast enough for 6f first time out, so something went wrong along the way. Just an interesting little race.

won't tomorrow be rather after the event?