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The 2025 Longshot Thread

I think we all love Walsworth and we all wish him well.

He's been taking the piss out of me for years - and I him - and I like to think neither of us would want it any other way.
 
On a serious note, Ian.

Will it really be soft ground tomorrow, or am I actually backing a good ground horse sired by Kingman, on what will turn out to be a good ground day.
 
I donated an abacus to a charity shop in Hertfordshire in 1978 when I left school. It went with a British Thornton slide rule and a Commodore LED calculator that seemed to give the answer 84115 to every calculation.

Wednesday report below from the BHA but I wouldn’t take that to be slide rule accurate, it might be a load of 84115.

Going History​

On Wed, 10 Sep 7:49am the ground condition wasGood (Good to Soft in Places). (GSt 6.4 on Wed 7:30am) Flat Turf (Round) : Good to Soft (Good in Places) (GSt 6.4 on Wed 7:30am) , Flat Turf(Straight) : Good (Good to Soft in Places) (GSt 6.4 on Wed 7:30am) .

Weather​

22.8mm rain last week. Wednesday - Overcast with showers through the day, potentially heavier later this evening. Thursday & Friday - brighter but potentially scattered showers in the afternoon. Saturday & Sunday - scattered showers through the day potentially heavier at times. Temps 18-20C Southerly winds
 
For what it's worth, and that may not be much, I'm interested in Do Bronxs in the 1.50. It's a significant class drop from the last outing in a Group 1 where he wasn't beaten a million miles. It looks as if they tryed to race prominently and he was taken off his feet. The extra furlong here and a more patient ride could see him run better.

They're only a load of two year old colts afterall, and while the cahoney's are still intact, sometimes you can throw the form book out of the window. AMO racing can get a horse to ready at a big price too, and this could be a decent longshot if they change the tactics over 7 furlongs.

It's have a nibble time.
 
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Isla kai 1st race Donny tomorrow 50/1
Looks a little overpriced in an open looking contest.
Has had a race to get fit and has won off similar handicap marks in the past.
A speculative selection, but may reward each way support at huge odds.
 
In the Flying five i was impressed by Grand Marquee last time when he smashed a strong fancy of mine in Songhai. Songhai had fared fairly well against Arizona blaze and Mgheerea in a Grp2 here. Grand marquees form seemed to improve for the soft ground a fair few of these wont enjoy it today but he will and I just think this improving 3yo will love conditions is in good form he has a fair bit to find but at the current 50/1 he represents some value.
 
Danny said:
In the Flying five i was impressed by Grand Marquee last time when he smashed a strong fancy of mine in Songhai. Songhai had fared fairly well against Arizona blaze and Mgheerea in a Grp2 here. Grand marquees form seemed to improve for the soft ground a fair few of these wont enjoy it today but he will and I just think this improving 3yo will love conditions is in good form he has a fair bit to find but at the current 50/1 he represents some value.
Click to expand...
100s 5 places. Why not.
 
I think Vadream might have enough to go well in the Flying Five, and suspect this will be a season plan. 50-1 generally. Just over 70 on the exchange in the last few mins, but obviously could be well enough into the 100s by race time.

Will need it soft in this field. Not sure it is soft enough, going by the reported RP conditions, but the FC appears to be for rain through the morning. Might be enough, maybe a watch on the first race is advisable to see what it's like (unless anyone is local and knows a bit more).
 
"Austrian Theory used to be trained by Charlie Johnston, then went to Tim Easterby. Firstly, I'm drawing a line through the last couple of efforts. Before that he ran really a fine race when three and a quarter lengths behind Fox Legacy in the John Smiths Cup. The history of his form shows when he drops to a low enough mark, that he can be very competitive. He dropped to 94 in 2022, winning a class 2 at Hamilton. He dropped to 91, then won a class 2 at Epsom in 2023. He dropped to 79, winning last season at Pontefract, albeit only at class four level. He's dropping again in the handicap, racing off the rating of 83 tomorrow."

I wrote the above before another one of Austrian Theory's disappointing efforts last time, where the step up to 1M4F didn't work out. That said, he should get soft ground tomorrow in the 2.45 at Ayr. I'm now thinking he might need cut in the ground over 1M2F to get his head in front. Yes, he can obviously perform well enough on a going day on better ground, but he showed some good form on soft at Pontefract at the end of last year, plus a couple of other runs that would make you think he's a lively longshot in these conditions over this trip tomorrow. He's dropped to a very similar mark to then aswell, now racing off 80.

I could have it all wrong again as I've been doing in abundance on here lately, but I'll take my chance at the likely odds tomorrow with four places on offer.
 
Ayr Bronze Cup - The market with regards to horses at the head of the betting looks about right, and there's several with highly progressive looking profiles.

If there's a longshot in there at 20/1 who might place, it could well be Johnny Concrete. He's a course and distance winner, that won first time up with cheekpieces, tomorrow they opt for first time blinkers, could this be a sign? He had some nice form earlier this season, when second behind Mostar Dreams and Kat's Bob. He was giving those horses weight on both occasions, but is much better off tomorrow, 4lb better with Kats Bob and 9lbs better with Mostar Dreams. That is a pretty big pull at the weights, and if the blinkers bring about more improvement, Johnny Concrete can run well.
 
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