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What are you backing Today? Part 2

This is what I posted on Twitter earlier for anyone that maybe interested


Athletics World Championships - Womens 800m Lilian Odira 1pt Win at 50/1 ( Gen ) & 3pts to win a medal at 5/1 ( Paddy Power ) looks far to generous to me. Keely ( too short ) aside it looks an open event, the 5's for any colour medal looks particularly tempting.
Odira beat Mary Moraa last year in a Kenyan Olympic qualifier, and was runner up at the African Championship - and made the Olympic semi finals, this after returning to athletics after giving birth. This year she broke her PB running 1.58:31 at the end of May in Nairobi.
In June she retained her Kenyan title, and the following month won the 800m Kenyan trials for the WC. She further lowered her PB in the Kamila Skolimowska Memorial Diamond League meet running 1.56:52 when runner up to Keely Hodgkinson.
Odira is clearly in good form and has improved since becoming a Mum -whatever way I look at this the odds make little sense to me - Win/Lose or Draw. The humidity should pose no problems to her ( but may inconvenience others ) and I'm hopeful of a better run than her odds suggest.
 
Might And Power said:
This is what I posted on Twitter earlier for anyone that maybe interested


Athletics World Championships - Womens 800m Lilian Odira 1pt Win at 50/1 ( Gen ) & 3pts to win a medal at 5/1 ( Paddy Power ) looks far to generous to me. Keely ( too short ) aside it looks an open event, the 5's for any colour medal looks particularly tempting.
Odira beat Mary Moraa last year in a Kenyan Olympic qualifier, and was runner up at the African Championship - and made the Olympic semi finals, this after returning to athletics after giving birth. This year she broke her PB running 1.58:31 at the end of May in Nairobi.
In June she retained her Kenyan title, and the following month won the 800m Kenyan trials for the WC. She further lowered her PB in the Kamila Skolimowska Memorial Diamond League meet running 1.56:52 when runner up to Keely Hodgkinson.
Odira is clearly in good form and has improved since becoming a Mum -whatever way I look at this the odds make little sense to me - Win/Lose or Draw. The humidity should pose no problems to her ( but may inconvenience others ) and I'm hopeful of a better run than her odds suggest.
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Any colour medal, surely should be 10s ( 5th of the odds ) ? 8 runners n all that.
 
Robicheaux said:
Any colour medal, surely should be 10s ( 5th of the odds ) ? 8 runners n all that.
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Not at all Robicheaux, Keely Hodgkinson is as short as 1/10 and it is 16/1 bar - five runners between 16/1 and 50's ..... 100/1 bar the six. You would expect Keely to win ( I have a nagging doubt that the humidity will affect her performance ) ..... realistically you would expect the medals to be decided between the top six in the betting. That being the case - you are basically looking at five runners to share two medals. Most firms - all at these championships are betting Win Only on every event. On this race in particular it would be potentially commercial suicide to offer EW - or Place Only at 1/5 Odds. I think Werro - Hunter Bell - Duguma - and Moraa are all quoted too short by PP just to win a medal. Odira on the other hand strikes me as too big,, I wouldn't have her any bigger than 20's to win the race, she's in form and improving and has been runner up to Keely in the Diamond League, being Kenyan she shouldn't be affected by the conditions which may prove crucial. Don't get me wrong she will probably need to lower her PB again to win , but the way she is running this year she may well press for a medal.
 
Thanks for that ! Sounds like your knowledgeable about this stuff, as was I in the days of Coe, Cram, Ovett etc.
As we saw today in the mens 1500 final. Anything can happen.
 
Might And Power said:
I left school a couple of weeks before the Moscow Olympics of 1980 ........ was a huge Ovett fan.
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Another bit of useful information.
A lad I went to school with represented Staffordshire at 1500 metres and 800 metres.
He beat everyone in front of him and went to run in the 800 metres at the national junior championships.
He finished 2nd well beaten from someone from the south of England.
He found out several years later the lad who cruised past him was ........ one Steve Ovett!!
 
Some quality posts there M&P. Used to love the Athlethics myself ( watching not participating). Completely lost track of any events and what channels its even shown on. Im younger than most on here but working these new TV.s with all the channels and streaming services is a nightmare. I used to laugh at my nan years ago as she didn't know how to work a VHS so she used to get me to do I was probably about 5 or 6 years old thinking how stupid are Adults! Now im in the same boat. Whatever happened to a couple of channels and the T.v times.
 
MONKS DREAM 2:15 AYR
Racing off 69 with Warren Fentiman who is riding it for the first time taking off a handy 5 pounds.
As only won on the AW but on its latest win at Newcastle back in March jumped awkwardly from the stalls but won going away off 77.
As been rather tenderly handled in its last two starts one of which was in that 'mickey mouse racing league malarkey'
Was entered for the Silver/Gold Cup but takes its chance here.
Downside Tim Easterby has four in the race but if it is allowed to put its best foot forward prepared to take a chance at 14/1 5 places.
 
Might And Power said:
Not at all Robicheaux, Keely Hodgkinson is as short as 1/10 and it is 16/1 bar - five runners between 16/1 and 50's ..... 100/1 bar the six. You would expect Keely to win ( I have a nagging doubt that the humidity will affect her performance ) ..... realistically you would expect the medals to be decided between the top six in the betting. That being the case - you are basically looking at five runners to share two medals. Most firms - all at these championships are betting Win Only on every event. On this race in particular it would be potentially commercial suicide to offer EW - or Place Only at 1/5 Odds. I think Werro - Hunter Bell - Duguma - and Moraa are all quoted too short by PP just to win a medal. Odira on the other hand strikes me as too big,, I wouldn't have her any bigger than 20's to win the race, she's in form and improving and has been runner up to Keely in the Diamond League, being Kenyan she shouldn't be affected by the conditions which may prove crucial. Don't get me wrong she will probably need to lower her PB again to win , but the way she is running this year she may well press for a medal.
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Odira tearing it up today!!!
 
Barnestormer said:
MONKS DREAM 2:15 AYR
Racing off 69 with Warren Fentiman who is riding it for the first time taking off a handy 5 pounds.
As only won on the AW but on its latest win at Newcastle back in March jumped awkwardly from the stalls but won going away off 77.
As been rather tenderly handled in its last two starts one of which was in that 'mickey mouse racing league malarkey'
Was entered for the Silver/Gold Cup but takes its chance here.
Downside Tim Easterby has four in the race but if it is allowed to put its best foot forward prepared to take a chance at 14/1 5 places.
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Beaten in a photo for fifth!!!!!
 
trefflich said:
Odira tearing it up today!!!
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Lilian Odira is now as low as 17/2 after today's 1st Round win in the 800m - pretty sure she posted the fastest time also, but most importantly looked very comfortable in doing so. She's generally the second fav, and Keely is without doubt the one to beat still. Paddy P have not yet updated their '' Win a Medal '' market ........ but if they do the price will be much shorter than the pre event quote of 5/1
 
Had a bet ,well I say a bet but ive took a chance Mister sox in the Bronze cup and put him in an ew double with the dragon. 1 length behind Eternal sunshine at Thirsk from a bad draw and Eternal Sunshine had the best possible draw 2lb better off and 16/1 available against the 5/2 its worth a rattle.
 
Might And Power said:
Lilian Odira is now as low as 17/2 after today's 1st Round win in the 800m - pretty sure she posted the fastest time also, but most importantly looked very comfortable in doing so. She's generally the second fav, and Keely is without doubt the one to beat still. Paddy P have not yet updated their '' Win a Medal '' market ........ but if they do the price will be much shorter than the pre event quote of 5/1
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This was a super tip regardless of what happens now. Surely nailed on for a medal .
 

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