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The 2025 Cesarewitch (Handicap)

Ian_Davies said:
I totally get where you're coming from, but Run For Oscar won at Haydock before he won his Cesarewitch.

I find Byrnes hard to predict, but I think the horse will be having a right go on Saturday and I think a strongly-run 2m2f on decent ground will suit Reverend Hubert more than most of the rest of the field.
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Run For Oscar is completely different — he absolutely sh*t in at Haydock. The handicapper couldn’t get him. I don’t see it with Hubert. I backed him to win fortunes in the race last year at 33s.
 
I can't be sure of the relevant dates at the time, so the following could be wrong, but IIRC Run For Oscar was during a period when the BHA routinely gave Irish horses hefty hikes if required to assess them solely on Irish form.

To get round this, Byrnes brought Run For Oscar to Haydock and, although he won by a comfortable four, got a mark for the Cesarewitch perhaps ironically lower than if he hadn't made the August scouting expedition and had stayed at home and maybe won a similar race in Ireland instead.

And, as you say, he bolted in at Newmarket.

The Reverend Hubert (who I also bet last year) has a different profile but I thought he won very easily over course and distance in the trial, the time was decent imo, the ground will be similar and, while the trainer is an often-discussed apparent law unto himself, even with a penalty, and at the revised weights, I see no reason why he shouldn't: 1 Be off for his life and 2 Go a lot closer this year than he did last year.

But I respect the chance of Belgravian and I could easily end up dutching the pair, or at least not losing on the latter.

pawras wonders why many of us talk so much about races like this.

Talk doesn't equate to turnover - I'd imagine most of us bet on legion races a week, but we only talk at length about traditional big events like this in which many of us share a common interest.
 
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I bet on very few races per week, but when I do, I bring receipts — I know exactly why I’m having a bet, and my record on here should show that. The daily grind is no longer for me.

The problem with Reverend Hubert is that the trial was a joke of a race — run at a crawl and turned into a sprint. Belgravian was given a stones, not that connections were too bothered, and the second, trained by de Bromhead, doesn’t even stay the trip. If you’re selling out on that form line, you’ll be losing your money on Saturday.
 
With me, a like is not necessarily an endorsement, but there are too many people who are scared of being wrong in this game and I just love strong opinions and this is yet another one from you.
 
Manxman came second last year by a nose. He's now 9-0 compared to last year (8-2)
can obviously do the distance but nobody seems interested in him ?
Are you sure he won't come back and win a year older ?
 
Oxford said:
Manxman came second last year by a nose. He's now 9-0 compared to last year (8-2)
can obviously do the distance but nobody seems interested in him ?
Are you sure he won't come back and win a year older ?
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I would suggest that, while some horses shoulder weight better than others, generally speaking it's the mark differential that matters most as what weight horses actually carry is a function of the quality of the opposition in any given race.

Manxman ran off OR 86 last year and runs off OR 94 this year, 8lb higher.

There are better handicapped horses in the race, but he is a proven Cesarewitch type and I could see him running well.
 
Tbh i can see the points for a few there. Belgravian and Hubert id be in the middle of the Slim and Ufsa opinions. I had the same opinion as Slim about the way the trial was run and a stronger run race would definitely suit Belgravian as he seemed a bit outpaced before coming back at them and then a 10lb is a hell of a pull at this distance I'd also although I haven't been paying much attention over the last few years but when I did i seem to remember trial form not playing out on the day. That said Hubert won doing handstands. Truth be told I think there is not much between them.

As for Outsiders Manxman I see Ians point about him being 8lb higher than last year. However both he and Alphonse who made up the 1-2 last year have certainly shown signs in recent races that they are coming to form at the right time. Alphonse didnt get the best of trips last time in that race won by Santorini Star and he's franked the form no end. With a better run Alphonse wouldve been a lot closer. Manxman a couple of times this season would've won with a an extra furlong or so especially at Goodwood where he seemed to take forever to pick up but was rattling home. He needs every yard of a strong run race in this but he certainly wont be going backwards at the business end. 8lb higher than last year yes but at 5yo he might not be done improving. Judged just on the goodwood running you think he'd of been certain to reverse with Novelista here. Again between him and Alphonse I dont there is much to choose.

There are plenty others I've looked at with chances its a tough race and you never really know what you're going to get and that even more applies to Mullins runners. One that seems strange to me is the old boy Winter Fog starting a flat campaign at this time of life winning a maiden over 2mile at the age of 11. Run in a champion hurdle, and only beat 7 lengths behind Teahupoo in the stayers at Punchestown as recently as May, has a hurdle mark 64lb above his flat mark, Sean Bowen booked he's certainly an interesting runner amongst a few others. I always think for these National hunt horses who've been lumping nearly 12 stone around with the to have a run around on the flat with only 8-5 must feel like a day off.

Best of luck sorting them all out.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I can't be sure of the relevant dates at the time, so the following could be wrong, but IIRC Run For Oscar was during a period when the BHA routinely gave Irish horses hefty hikes if required to assess them solely on Irish form.

To get round this, Byrnes brought Run For Oscar to Haydock and, although he won by a comfortable four, got a mark for the Cesarewitch perhaps ironically lower than if he hadn't made the August scouting expedition and had stayed at home and maybe won a similar race in Ireland instead.

And, as you say, he bolted in at Newmarket.

The Reverend Hubert (who I also bet last year) has a different profile but I thought he won very easily over course and distance in the trial, the time was decent imo, the ground will be similar and, while the trainer is an often-discussed apparent law unto himself, even with a penalty, and at the revised weights, I see no reason why he shouldn't: 1 Be off for his life and 2 Go a lot closer this year than he did last year.

But I respect the chance of Belgravian and I could easily end up dutching the pair, or at least not losing on the latter.

pawras wonders why many of us talk so much about races like this.

Talk doesn't equate to turnover - I'd imagine most of us bet on legion races a week, but we only talk at length about traditional big events like this in which many of us share a common interest.
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Some patter about these races I can understand and I get more involved with them elsewhere for that reason cos it can trigger worthwhile ideas, but I still wouldn't do any more than interest/tv bets on most of them cos I'm not that into big field hcaps for betting
 
Danny said:
There are plenty others I've looked at with chances its a tough race and you never really know what you're going to get and that even more applies to Mullins runners. One that seems strange to me is the old boy Winter Fog starting a flat campaign at this time of life winning a maiden over 2mile at the age of 11. Run in a champion hurdle, and only beat 7 lengths behind Teahupoo in the stayers at Punchestown as recently as May, has a hurdle mark 64lb above his flat mark, Sean Bowen booked he's certainly an interesting runner amongst a few others. I always think for these National hunt horses who've been lumping nearly 12 stone around with the to have a run around on the flat with only 8-5 must feel like a day off.

Best of luck sorting them all out.
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Even though Winter Fog is 11 he still has a chance. An 11yr old Caracciola won in 2008
 
pawras said:
Some patter about these races I can understand and I get more involved with them elsewhere for that reason cos it can trigger worthwhile ideas, but I still wouldn't do any more than interest/tv bets on most of them cos I'm not that into big field hcaps for betting
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Mate it's each to their own ive known you a number of years now online and we are complete polar opposites in our ways and methods. As much as your way in the main is not for me i know it works for you and know you'll be making profit year on year as ive seen the results so who can argue with that. Due to the work you've put in building that machine of yours it also makes your selection process less time consuming and you still enjoy your racing. For me your also a winner outside of racing and have a pretty good set up and probably have a dollar for every dime that I have.

To me mate although we differ greatly you're winning all round and not many can say that.
 
Slim said:
I'm going to nail my colours to the mast. Hubert won't finish in the first 6.
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If I leave him out my trifecta attempt on this basis and he hits the 3 im personally popping over to Cork to kick you in the goolackers.
 
Danny said:
Mate it's each to their own ive known you a number of years now online and we are complete polar opposites in our ways and methods. As much as your way in the main is not for me i know it works for you and know you'll be making profit year on year as ive seen the results so who can argue with that. Due to the work you've put in building that machine of yours it also makes your selection process less time consuming and you still enjoy your racing. For me your also a winner outside of racing and have a pretty good set up and probably have a dollar for every dime that I have.

To me mate although we differ greatly you're winning all round and not many can say that.
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I do admire the success you've had/have with your approach, which I've seen for real, cos it's so contrary to mine and it would take a massive effort on my part to try and learn that approach
 
pawras said:
I do admire the success you've had/have with your approach, which I've seen for real, cos it's so contrary to mine and it would take a massive effort on my part to try and learn that approach
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I'd steer well clear its an approach that leads to many sleepless nights, what might of beens and a huge strain on major organs :)
 
Slim said:
I'm going to nail my colours to the mast. Hubert won't finish in the first 6.
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Like I said earlier in the thread, far too many people in this game are terrified of being wrong - it's most of the reason why people aftertime, they probably bet the winner sure enough, but didn't have the bottle to put it up beforehand.

It's for opinions like this^ that I read the forum - I don't have to agree with a posting to admire it.

And that taps into what Danny says - there are people in this game who win long term using wildly differing modus operandi.

Neither of them is necessarily "wrong" - in fact, if they both make the game pay they are both RIGHT,

Different, but RIGHT.

Bring on the Ces!
 
I've gotta say Ive never been guilty of being afraid to be wrong or lose. Tbh i think the fear of losing often inhibits being able to win. My biggest ever bet on a horse a touch over 600 quid from all prices down from 250's to 20's id raved on about for 2 months beforehand broke a blood vessel and finished last. When id given it as a tip to a fair few at work and a few mates all non racing folk id already accepted they'd have no idea what a broken blood vessel meant and so I just took the clueless f%*& wit jibes for a few months on the chin. Tbh having endured that humiliation I'll never have anything to fear.
 
Danny said:
I'd steer well clear its an approach that leads to many sleepless nights, what might of beens and a huge strain on major organs :)
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I've been witness to some of the what might have beens, I don't fancy that kind of stress/disappointment, I prefer to generally keep any one race largely meh re it's result
 
Like I said earlier in the thread, far too many people in this game are terrified of being wrong - it's most of the reason why people aftertime, they probably bet the winner sure enough, but didn't have the bottle to put it up beforehand.


COULDN'T AGREE MORE IAN

once you are right more tomes than you are wrong you are going the right way.
 

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