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Another Newbie

Races on Thursday 9th October September 2025 - First 3 picks

13:23 hrs @ Bath - I am laying = Star Of Jupiter

13:40 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Pol Roger

13:45 hrs @ Thurles - I am laying = Green Carrera

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
Races on Thursday 9th October September 2025 - First 3 picks

13:23 hrs @ Bath - I am laying = Star Of Jupiter

13:40 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Pol Roger

13:45 hrs @ Thurles - I am laying = Green Carrera

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.
Click to expand...

13:23 hrs @ Bath - I am laying = Star Of Jupiter + 300

13:40 hrs @ Ayr - I am laying = Pol Roger + 300

13:45 hrs @ Thurles - I am laying = Green Carrera - 380

300 + 300 - 380 =220
 
Races on Thursday 9th October September 2025 - Second 3 picks

13:55 hrs @ Bath - I am laying = Baileys Ontherocks

14:05 hrs @ Tranmore - I am laying = Miss Donna

If the above 2 go my way, I will not cover the 3rd horse below.

14:30 hrs @ Bath - I am laying = Fairy Glen

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
Races on Thursday 9th October September 2025 - Second 3 picks

13:55 hrs @ Bath - I am laying = Baileys Ontherocks

14:05 hrs @ Tranmore - I am laying = Miss Donna

If the above 2 go my way, I will not cover the 3rd horse below.

14:30 hrs @ Bath - I am laying = Fairy Glen

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.
Click to expand...

13:55 hrs @ Bath - I am laying = Baileys Ontherocks + 300

14:05 hrs @ Tranmore - I am laying = Miss Donna + 300
Continued from first 3 races = 300 + 300 - 380 =220
220 + 300 + 300 =820
I am done for the day.
Not going to cover this = 14:30 hrs @ Bath - I am laying = Fairy Glen

Have fund one and all.
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
Races on Thursday 9th October September 2025 - Second 3 picks

13:55 hrs @ Bath - I am laying = Baileys Ontherocks

14:05 hrs @ Tranmore - I am laying = Miss Donna

If the above 2 go my way, I will not cover the 3rd horse below.

14:30 hrs @ Bath - I am laying = Fairy Glen

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.
Click to expand...

Fairy Glenn went my way, I was already done for the day though.
 
Races on Friday 10th October September 2025 - First 3 picks

13:15 hrs @ Newmarket - I am laying = Spicy Marg

13:22 hrs @ Chepstow - I am laying = Tread Carefully (I may drop this before the race starts if the price alters too much)

13:30 hrs @ York - I am laying = Bopedro

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
Races on Friday 10th October September 2025 - First 3 picks

13:15 hrs @ Newmarket - I am laying = Spicy Marg

13:22 hrs @ Chepstow - I am laying = Tread Carefully (I may drop this before the race starts if the price alters too much)

13:30 hrs @ York - I am laying = Bopedro

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.
Click to expand...

13:15 hrs @ Newmarket - I am laying = Spicy Marg + 300

13:22 hrs @ Chepstow - I am laying = Tread Carefully + 300

13:30 hrs @ York - I am laying = Bopedro + 300

300 + 300 + 300 =900

I am done for the day!
Have fun one and all :)
 
one from a lad on our forum who puts up one lay a day

1500 Newmarket GStaad

1/2 with my O’Brien lays yesterday as Precise delivered impressively.
I’ll take this one on today as I don’t believe it will see the distance out as well as some of the others.
Beaten by Zavateri on yielding ground over 7 furlongs at the Curragh.
There was no luck about the win, it dug deep and managed to get its head where it counted.
That was Zavateri’s distance whereas Gstaad has only won at 6 furlongs and has the disadvantage of an uphill finish here.
Gstaad is the only horse in this race not to have won at the distance – Race trends have 17/23 for previous distance winners.
Distant Storm has won twice in over the distance and on similar ground. Its last win was very good and there looked to be more in the tank as it won by over 4 lengths.
Jockey remains a weak link for me despite the win yesterday.
That was his first winner here since April 2022 and the 5 yr record now stands at 3/18.
His record for the Trainer when riding in the UK/Ireland is 4/26. Three of those wins came at Leopardstown and it’s 1/11 in the UK.
Compare that with Buick and Appleby whose 5 year strike rate at the course is 385 for a BSP profit of 142 points.
I can’t see a reason why Gstaad should overturn the form with Zavateri and I don’t see it finishing in front of Distant Storm who I expect to win.
Overall profile of the race makes it opposable.
 
luckyme said:
one from a lad on our forum who puts up one lay a day

1500 Newmarket GStaad

1/2 with my O’Brien lays yesterday as Precise delivered impressively.
I’ll take this one on today as I don’t believe it will see the distance out as well as some of the others.
Beaten by Zavateri on yielding ground over 7 furlongs at the Curragh.
There was no luck about the win, it dug deep and managed to get its head where it counted.
That was Zavateri’s distance whereas Gstaad has only won at 6 furlongs and has the disadvantage of an uphill finish here.
Gstaad is the only horse in this race not to have won at the distance – Race trends have 17/23 for previous distance winners.
Distant Storm has won twice in over the distance and on similar ground. Its last win was very good and there looked to be more in the tank as it won by over 4 lengths.
Jockey remains a weak link for me despite the win yesterday.
That was his first winner here since April 2022 and the 5 yr record now stands at 3/18.
His record for the Trainer when riding in the UK/Ireland is 4/26. Three of those wins came at Leopardstown and it’s 1/11 in the UK.
Compare that with Buick and Appleby whose 5 year strike rate at the course is 385 for a BSP profit of 142 points.
I can’t see a reason why Gstaad should overturn the form with Zavateri and I don’t see it finishing in front of Distant Storm who I expect to win.
Overall profile of the race makes it opposable.
Click to expand...
I agree with this and great at a lower price

There are 4 clear stronger horses in that race and at least 1 of them is surprisingly priced far below its potential.

I am hoping to be in and out before that race.

However, if I am still around I will lay GStaad

Thanks for the tip @luckyme
 

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