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Another Newbie

Races on Sunday 12th October 2025 - Fitfh 3 picks

15:10 hrs @ Naas - I am laying = Fiery Lucy

15:17 hrs @ Chepstow - I am laying = Alexei

I may stop after this, depending on the result. If not, then =

15:27 hrs @ Cork - I am laying = Tackletommywoowoo

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
Races on Sunday 12th October 2025 - Fitfh 3 picks

15:10 hrs @ Naas - I am laying = Fiery Lucy

15:17 hrs @ Chepstow - I am laying = Alexei

I may stop after this, depending on the result. If not, then =

15:27 hrs @ Cork - I am laying = Tackletommywoowoo

Caveats =

I Ignore prices the day before, they frequently change and are often misleading.

I am only interested in horses that I believe cannot win.
I often drop a horse from the list on the day, if the race is altered in any way;

A stronger horse becomes a non runner on the day

Rain does not prevent the race, but is unfavourable to stronger horses

The jockey is changed on a stronger horse

Worst scenario = Several horses become non runners

Finally, I always stop when I have achieved even a penny over my desired target, or if any of the above affects the remaining choices, whichever comes first.

Oh and ....

This is not a recommendation, I am just sharing my own opinion, not suggesting anyone else act on it.
Click to expand...

15:10 hrs @ Naas - I am laying = Fiery Lucy + 300

15:17 hrs @ Chepstow - I am laying = Alexei + 300

I may stop after this, depending on the result. If not, then =

15:27 hrs @ Cork - I am laying = Tackletommywoowoo


Rolled from earlier races = 300 + 300 - 1020 =-420

- 420 - 1560 + 300 + 300 =-1,380

- 1380 + 300 + 300 + 300 =-480

- 480 + 300 + 300 + 300 =420

420 + 300 + 300 = 1020

I am done for the day.
Have fun one and all.
 
Aussie - 770

Uk / Ireland + 1,020 (After a battle)

Total = 250

Not great, but given the start to the day and the battle that followed, it is better than a loss.
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
14:07 hrs @ Chepstow - I am laying = Riviera Walk + 300

14:17 hrs @ Cork - I am laying = Mon Sheriffe + 300

14:27 hrs @ Goodwood - I am laying = Mollstar (May change to another horse) + 300


Rolled from earlier races = 300 + 300 - 1020 =-420

- 420 - 1560 + 300 + 300 =-1,380

- 1380 + 300 + 300 + 300 =-480
Click to expand...
Hi , your lay in the 1427 interested me cos I also didn't fancy Mollstar as I fancied the fav win , so I got onboard that lay as well, can you clarify your staking approach, are you laying to win a certain amount or lose a certain amount each race?
 
Last edited:
pawras said:
Hi , your lay in the 1427 interested me cos I also didn't fancy Mollstar as I fancied the fav win , so I got onboard that lay as well, can clarify your staking approach, are you laying to win a certain amount or lose a certain amount each race?
Click to expand...
I lay to win 100 on the Aussie races (because there is lower liquidity on those races) and recently I increased the stakes from 250 to 300 on the UK / Ireland races

I try to keep the odds down as much as possible, but you know how the bookies work...

I used to work differently when my account base balance was only 10k

I then kept my risk to 600 and set the stake to mirror that risk. It means frequent adjusting of the stake leading up to the race, but it is not hard to manage.

It does make it easier to monitor price drifting, but that has been rare recently

I hope this provides the clarity you were seeking.
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
I lay to win 100 on the Aussie races (because there is lower liquidity on those races) and recently I increased the stakes from 250 to 300 on the UK / Ireland races

I try to keep the odds down as much as possible, but you know how the bookies work...

I used to work differently when my account base balance was only 10k

I then kept my risk to 600 and set the stake to mirror that risk. It means frequent adjusting of the stake leading up to the race, but it is not hard to manage.

It does make it easier to monitor price drifting, but that has been rare recently

I hope this provides the clarity you were seeking.
Click to expand...
So does that mean you are laying to win 300 on the uk/ire races and therefore your liabilities vary quite a bit from race to race?
 
pawras said:
So does that mean you are laying to win 300 on the uk/ire races and therefore your liabilities vary quite a bit from race to race?
Click to expand...
Correct.

My stake is 300

My liabilities can be as low as 300 - for example - or as high as 3,000

Thankfully, the higher priced horses do not win very often.

I also exit as soon as I reach my target or a sensible level.

I am not interested in spending untold hours winning and then giving some of it back
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
Correct.

My stake is 300

My liabilities can be as low as 300 - for example - or as high as 3,000

Thankfully, the higher priced horses do not win very often.

I also exit as soon as I reach my target or a sensible level.

I am not interested in spending untold hours winning and then giving some of it back
Click to expand...
what made you choose a fixed profit over fixed liability approach?
 
pawras said:
what made you choose a fixed profit over fixed liability approach?
Click to expand...
Account size

Fixing the backers stake comes with more liability, but it is easier to make a decent amount from fewer races, assuming of course, that I do not take consecutive losses.

Fixing the risk lowers the income per race, unless I am lucky enough to find a low priced false favourite, where I can have a big backers stake for the same risk
 
TheHobbitsReturn said:
Account size

Fixing the backers stake comes with more liability, but it is easier to make a decent amount from fewer races, assuming of course, that I do not take consecutive losses.

Fixing the risk lowers the income per race, unless I am lucky enough to find a low priced false favourite, where I can have a big backers stake for the same risk
Click to expand...
have you modelled the fixed liability approach with your selections to see which gives the better roi% ?
 
Danny said:
short fat, bald and broke
Click to expand...
You can put a positive spin on anything - I'm reading this and interpreting from it: Zero issues with low ceilings, a lifelong battle with anorexia nervosa well and truly won, zero hair grooming costs and a perfectly-balanced personal economy.
 
pawras said:
@TheHobbitsReturn has inspired me to have a dabble with laying , not for the first time, I'll do fixed liability v low stakes then when I have a reasonable sample I'll model using fixed profit/backers stake and see what looks best for me
Click to expand...

He inspired me to talk like a droid. I've also been putting disclaimers on the household chores that im doing.
 

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