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QIPCO British Champions Day

Slim said:
The horse they’ve insisted wants 12f is running in the hardest race of its life. Back it by all means, but don’t pretend it’s anywhere near a strong bet.
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I find it interesting reading online that some who fancy Calandagan, because it's won a King George here, can't have Kalpana, who was runner up and is in a much weaker race today.
 
jinnyj said:
100% percent. To be fair the ITV girls are quite good at pointing out which have started to "go" in their coats. But if you are paddockside, look for those with nice shiny summer coats. Even better if they still have dapples. If the coat has gone dull and is starting to look hairy or woolly, then I would question backing the individual. You will find that geldings and fillies tend to turn first while some colts don't lose their summer coats at all.
I have this theory that if a horse is putting energy into changing it's coat, it's lacking energy elsewhere.
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Thank you, jinny - very informative.
 
A few musings for today's cracking card. I wish I had had the time to go to be honest. I will check them in the paddock though (fingers crossed they show them all) for coat condition.

2yo Conditions Race:
Words of Truth (although gelded) has to be a worthy fav. I saw he was knocked on the OS as that last win was on soft but the way he pulled back the second, was pretty smart for me. Plus he's a brother to the late Ancient Truth who was unbeaten at 2 before a good third in the Guineas.
Division - I didn't see last week but he's a Haggas horse so he's obviously a threat
Mission Central - another gelded who has shown improvement from that and the 6 here will definitely be more to his liking that the 5 at Donnie. I like Non Nay Nevers on good ground too.
Siren Suit - Johnnie G doesn't throw them in the deep end for no reason and JW is keen on him plus the dam acted well here.
Ardisia - is tough but may not be good enough although ew bet could be sound.
Sir Albert - progressive but might not be the quality of the others

Sprint
I'm split between Big Mojo and Lazzat
I also have a little hunch for the French filly Rayevka who was taken out of the Abbaye due to the ground. She will be happier here.
Montassib too has to be considered as I do all from the yard
Should a July Cup winner (No Half Measures) be 25-1? Maybe it was a fluke that day but she still won it and her price reflects a poor run at Haydock in a draw biased race.
Flora of Bermuda often seems to find trouble in a race but is a decent ew shout
Witness Stand also will appreciate the ground and stays an easy 7f so a stiff 6 here will suit. He is drifting though.

Fillies race
No surprise to see Kalpana favourite - quick turn around from the Arc but I think the race she won here last year lacked the depth of this year?
Estrange's second to Minnie Hawk is looking very good now and it was a sound run. Ground here will be plenty quick enough for her and has she recovered enough from a dirty scope which ruled her out last time?
One Look is tough and a step up in trip looks a good move
Waardah is an improver and lightly raced - up to 1m6 after a clear win over half a mile shorter seemed a strange idea but she won again. My concern on her is ground and has she avoided quicker ground all year?
I saw the two French fillies on the OS this morning and both looked really well especially Quisiana - she had a real purpose to her walk which I like considering she ran in the Arc. I may have a nibble on her ew.
Wemightakedlongway (who the feck named that?) seems tough and beat Minnie early in her career. She'd have an ew chance

QE2
Who's going to bring their A game - Field of Gold or Rosallion? Both have big blots on their CVs but both bags of talent. JG will have FoG back hopefully and he's more reliable in that his opponent who seems to not find the winning post in time this year.
I have a soft spot for Fallen Angel and would love her to trounce the boys. She was on the OS and I was interested to learn that Karl Burke is very careful to make sure they are well rugged up at this time of year as well as having heat lamps in the stables to keep the autumn chills away - don't underestimate that attention to detail!
The Lion in Winter did run a much better race last time but the ground was softer and I am still worried about those feet!
Never So Brave is hugely progressive and could be the one to ruin the FoG/Rosallion party especially under Oisin
I rate Johnny Murtagh as a trainer and his Alakazi catches my eye - 3yo, improving from a good Aga Khan family....and a nice price ew.

The Big One
I am actually churning stomach wise over this!
My heart, head, every organ in my body want my boy, the glorious Del Boy to win. Having spotted him on his debut I am so glad he has proved that he is worthy. But...it ain't going to be easy!
The two bits of form - the Eclipse and the Juddmonte were both muddling races so you can make cases for both beaten horses in each. In the farce that was the Juddmonte, you can argue that Ombudsman was better placed to pick up the suicidal pacemaker whereas Del Boy wasn't. In the Eclipse, Ombudsman was run down by Del Boy so could be seen as unlucky.
Calandagan I am hoping is more of a 1m4 horse and won't be quick enough.
Economics could of course have benefitted from such a huge amount of time off - he is a big horse (do we know what the issue was - apart from the fact he bled here last year?)
Almeric faces a big jump up from a Listed win but is the least exposed.

I just want a fair even pace, with sensible pacemakers and no hard luck stories. Or big outsiders or I shall be stomping until Christmas!!!

Just add a couple in the last handicap:
Native Warrior was absolutely cruising when he won here - as Chappers says "travelling like a travelly thing!"
Orandi - was claimer ridden last twice so clearly not off a yard, hasn't run since August and was out the back last time too - which means the yard is plotting something.
 
Last edited:
yorick said:
the draw unknown factor
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Despite the consistent derision (emanating from the across the Irish Sea to my West) regarding attempts to analyse the Ascot straight course draw, I currently think the following....

High (stands side) best on quick ground, but only when it's a maximum field, or the stalls are stands side, and the CoC hasn't tried to water the bias away (as he did Thursday night at Royal Ascot).

It is quick today, but it's not a maximum field, the stalls are far side and it's a long way to tack across in search of a golden highway under the stands rail - I think they may all race far side.

And low (far side) when it's Soft (it isn't today) and also maybe (evidence today) when the stalls are far side in a less-than-maximum field.
 
One last thought - Devil's Advocate won't be the 380 it is now if it's an uncontested ten clear 4f out.

I did this with Birr Castle at York, who was 200 plus pre-race and it touched 2/1 2f out.

Might not pan out that way this time, but there are worse back-to-lay bets.
 
Ian_Davies said:
One last thought - Devil's Advocate won't be the 380 it is now if it's an uncontested ten clear 4f out.

I did this with Birr Castle at York, who was 200 plus pre-race and it touched 2/1 2f out.

Might not pan out that way this time, but there are worse back-to-lay bets.
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That has absolutely f$%^ing no chance.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Despite the consistent derision (emanating from the across the Irish Sea to my West) regarding attempts to analyse the Ascot straight course draw, I currently think the following....

High (stands side) best on quick ground, but only when it's a maximum field, or the stalls are stands side, and the CoC hasn't tried to water the bias away (as he did Thursday night at Royal Ascot).

It is quick today, but it's not a maximum field, the stalls are far side and it's a long way to tack across in search of a golden highway under the stands rail - I think they may all race far side.

And low (far side) when it's Soft (it isn't today) and also maybe (evidence today) when the stalls are far side in a less-than-maximum field.
Click to expand...

There’s no sun so the far side won’t be drying quicker than the stands side which is in shadow from the stands when the sun shines.
 
Slim said:
That has absolutely f$%^ing no chance.
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I would tend to concur but, with Birr Castle, the opportunity to cash out at a significant profit 2f out materialised.

IIRC, you acknowledged it was a good call at the time and it doesn't cost much to take up a position.

It's got the same OR Birr Castle had going into the York race and the same jockey.

Maybe they won't let there be a repeat of York, but at the odds....
 
jinnyj said:
A few musings for today's cracking card. I wish I had had the time to go to be honest. I will check them in the paddock though (fingers crossed they show them all) for coat condition.

2yo Conditions Race:
Words of Truth (although gelded) has to be a worthy fav. I saw he was knocked on the OS as that last win was on soft but the way he pulled back the second, was pretty smart for me. Plus he's a brother to the late Ancient Truth who was unbeaten at 2 before a good third in the Guineas.
Division - I didn't see last week but he's a Haggas horse so he's obviously a threat
Mission Central - another gelded who has shown improvement from that and the 6 here will definitely be more to his liking that the 5 at Donnie. I like Non Nay Nevers on good ground too.
Siren Suit - Johnnie G doesn't throw them in the deep end for no reason and JW is keen on him plus the dam acted well here.
Ardisia - is tough but may not be good enough although ew bet could be sound.
Sir Albert - progressive but might not be the quality of the others

Sprint
I'm split between Big Mojo and Lazzat
I also have a little hunch for the French filly Rayevka who was taken out of the Abbaye due to the ground. She will be happier here.
Montassib too has to be considered as I do all from the yard
Should a July Cup winner (No Half Measures) be 25-1? Maybe it was a fluke that day but she still won it and her price reflects a poor run at Haydock in a draw biased race.
Flora of Bermuda often seems to find trouble in a race but is a decent ew shout
Witness Stand also will appreciate the ground and stays an easy 7f so a stiff 6 here will suit. He is drifting though.

Fillies race
No surprise to see Kalpana favourite - quick turn around from the Arc but I think the race she won here last year lacked the depth of this year?
Estrange's second to Minnie Hawk is looking very good now and it was a sound run. Ground here will be plenty quick enough for her and has she recovered enough from a dirty scope which ruled her out last time?
One Look is tough and a step up in trip looks a good move
Waardah is an improver and lightly raced - up to 1m6 after a clear win over half a mile shorter seemed a strange idea but she won again. My concern on her is ground and has she avoided quicker ground all year?
I saw the two French fillies on the OS this morning and both looked really well especially Quisiana - she had a real purpose to her walk which I like considering she ran in the Arc. I may have a nibble on her ew.
Wemightakedlongway (who the feck named that?) seems tough and beat Minnie early in her career. She'd have an ew chance

QE2
Who's going to bring their A game - Field of Gold or Rosallion? Both have big blots on their CVs but both bags of talent. JG will have FoG back hopefully and he's more reliable in that his opponent who seems to not find the winning post in time this year.
I have a soft spot for Fallen Angel and would love her to trounce the boys. She was on the OS and I was interested to learn that Karl Burke is very careful to make sure they are well rugged up at this time of year as well as having heat lamps in the stables to keep the autumn chills away - don't underestimate that attention to detail!
The Lion in Winter did run a much better race last time but the ground was softer and I am still worried about those feet!
Never So Brave is hugely progressive and could be the one to ruin the FoG/Rosallion party especially under Oisin
I rate Johnny Murtagh as a trainer and his Alakazi catches my eye - 3yo, improving from a good Aga Khan family....and a nice price ew.

The Big One
I am actually churning stomach wise over this!
My heart, head, every organ in my body want my boy, the glorious Del Boy to win. Having spotted him on his debut I am so glad he has proved that he is worthy. But...it ain't going to be easy!
The two bits of form - the Eclipse and the Juddmonte were both muddling races so you can make cases for both beaten horses in each. In the farce that was the Juddmonte, you can argue that Ombudsman was better placed to pick up the suicidal pacemaker whereas Del Boy wasn't. In the Eclipse, Ombudsman was run down by Del Boy so could be seen as unlucky.
Calandagan I am hoping is more of a 1m4 horse and won't be quick enough.
Economics could of course have benefitted from such a huge amount of time off - he is a big horse (do we know what the issue was - apart from the fact he bled here last year?)
Almeric faces a big jump up from a Listed win but is the least exposed.

I just want a fair even pace, with sensible pacemakers and no hard luck stories. Or big outsiders or I shall be stomping until Christmas!!!

Just add a couple in the last handicap:
Native Warrior was absolutely cruising when he won here - as Chappers says "travelling like a travelly thing!"
Orandi - was claimer ridden last twice so clearly not off a yard, hasn't run since August and was out the back last time too - which means the yard is plotting something.
Click to expand...
Nice comprehensive analysis Jinnyj bad news is I have backed some of them 🙈
 
Interesting comments from Adele that both JG horses in the first have gone in their coats - I'm not going to say they won't win but it's always a negative for me.
 
:ROFLMAO: Adele's and my "Hairy Horse Theory" totally blown out of the water there!

That said they were the best horses by a mile in the contest
 
Ian_Davies said:
12.55: Trawlerman clocked 4m 15s when winning the Gold Cup, that's 12.75s per furlong. Very few horses truly stay a strongly-run 2m4f on the Flat and he bounced off the ground to pulverise them. Won't be that much slower going tomorrow either. Ridden for stamina again, there is no reason why he shouldn't win.
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How's that started at 5/6?

What a game.
 
A little disappointing that Words of Truth hit the front so early but I was on the winner ew. And I was right about Ardisia being a good ew - tough as teak.
Siren Suit - everything went wrong from him from being a plonker going to post which led Havlin to hook him coming out of the stalls and the horse overdid it before running with the choke out. If they can get him to switch off, he's a good looking horse for next year.
 

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