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Backing Venetia Williams' Chasers In November with Andrew Mount

Len Madeiros said:
I think Skelton will always be tainted by his ‘expert handling’ of Langer Dan. Every handicap winner he has now, will be judged on how Langer Dan was handicapped to win the Coral Cup twice.

Pocket-hurty punters never forget.
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Having backed LD for those wins (and the needless defeat before them - was it by GDC? - can't be arsed checking) I would say it was blindingly obvious what he was doing with the horse and it was expert (and pretty ruthless) campaigning but the Hendos and Williamses and half the training fraternity of Ireland do the same thing and don't get the same sh1t from punters.

Not sure what it is about the Skeltons that garner that kind of ill-will and I'm always very wary of their runners even if I do/did catch them right now and agan.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Having backed LD for those wins (and the needless defeat before them - was it by GDC? - can't be arsed checking) I would say it was blindingly obvious what he was doing with the horse and it was expert (and pretty ruthless) campaigning but the Hendos and Williamses and half the training fraternity of Ireland do the same thing and don't get the same sh1t from punters.

Not sure what it is about the Skeltons that garner that kind of ill-will and I'm always very wary of their runners even if I do/did catch them right now and agan.
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If punters are not in on the sting, they can become very resentful. Like you, DO, I caught him right twice, but the horse ended up competing at G1 level. All sorts of sorcery going on to hide his true mark.
 
Major Fortune going 7s to 40s and getting a ride that made winning impossible isn’t Mullins territory. The Skeltons are a gambling yard that haven’t adapted to being a major yard.
 
Len Madeiros said:
If punters are not in on the sting, they can become very resentful. Like you, DO, I caught him right twice, but the horse ended up competing at G1 level. All sorts of sorcery going on to hide his true mark.
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There is a big difference between punter resentment and systematic cheating.
 
Falco des Pins looks a cut above the opposition in Ffos Las today.

2 sighters at back end of last year leaves him with a very workable mark of 95 to begin chasing with.
 
redundant pal said:
Falco des Pins looks a cut above the opposition in Ffos Las today.

2 sighters at back end of last year leaves him with a very workable mark of 95 to begin chasing with.
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4.7 on the machine currently - what a gift!

It's Williams, it's November, the ground is Soft - every box ticked!
 
I’ve done it.
It’s a poor contest and he wouldn’t have to be any great shakes to win.
 
The tension mounts as post time approaches.

Might Jaipaletemps, with Rian Corcoran claiming TEN, be the danger?

Or will daylight be second?

We will soon find out!
 
Interested to see if Hunter Legend gets declared for the class 3 at Bangor on Wednesday in an hour or so, as he'd hold a pretty decent chance, especially given connections have him entered for the Paddy Power on Saturday too.
 
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The Fortune Teller said:
Interested to see if Hunter Legend gets declared for the class 3 at Bangor on Wednesday in an hour or so, as he'd hold a pretty decent chance, especially given connections have him entered for the Paddy Power on Saturday too.
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So despite Charlie Deutsch being booked, Hunter Legend wasn't declared today, leaving the door open for a tilt at the Paddy Power on Saturday.

He's got a lovely progressive profile, winning nearly 50 percent of his chases, (5/11), and while stepping up in class would be a challenge, he might prove a decent left field selection for Saturday.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Your 15-minute warning that Fuji Flight runs for the yard in the 2.21 at Huntingdon!
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And another one bites the dust - so far this November Venetia Williams has sent out one winner and seven that got beat.

You're only in front of you got the biggest price Djelo ever was ante-post.
 
Robicheaux said:
I know I'm sounding boring now, but it's always been the Hennessey meeting, where I start. Always found December, January, more productive, following hers.
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Not boring at all, I duly noted it when you first said it and I'm actually hoping she sends out a few more losers, so the media lose interest and we can eventually nick a bit at some sort of prices.

The last time I had a decent return out of the yard generally was 23rd November last year when she sent out Martator, Royal Pagaille and Fontaine Collonges to win the same afternoon
 
As shown before these are my trainer seasonality stats for Venetia Williams chase races from 2000.

1762874591871.png

But is her success weighted towards the end of the November?

One bit of SQL later to show what days those 151 winners are in shows it's slightly weighted towards the end of the month. However that's covering 25 years, limiting it to just more recent years might show something different.

1762874839979.png
 
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9
250-
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Lemoncello (FR) 6,b g 10-12
Spider Flight (FR)-That's Nellie(Martaline)

(261) d2 (David & Carol Shaw)
Rated 114
Miss Venetia Williams
Charlie Deutsch
20/1

Monday 17 November, Exeter 3:00, 2 miles 3f handicap chase. 9 runners.

The 20/1 seems to be with Paddy Power only. Should do much better over fences than hurdles, especially if learning to settle. Her French imports often seem to need a season to acclimatize to British conditions.
 
Rumour has it that VWNG are planning a co-ordinated related contingency double tomorrow to get themselves out of bastard trouble on the month.

Royal Pagaille and Martator both delivered this time last year and the double odds of them repeating the dose on the morrow are circa 80/1.
 
Outsider said:
I always thought that she was better from December onwards.
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Fast forward to New Year's Eve after a barren Yuletide: "Well, I always thought she was better from January onwards!"

All good fun - tomorrow's 87/1 double can silence the filthy doubters (err, like me).
 
Hereford racecourse are doing their best next Tuesday to will one of hers first over the line with the titles of the first three races. These are Celebrating Venetia's 30 Years In Training Novices' Hurdle, 2009 Grand National Winner Mon Mome Novices' Hurdle, and Lady Rebecca Novices' Handicap Chase. But she hasn't got anything entered in any of those three, only Lagonda and Almeirinda later on the card.

Juracique ( 8th of 8 finishers - and 22/1 - in the 1:34 at Chepstow today didn't appear to have been given a hard race until it went out of view ).
 
Outsider said:
Are you doubting my integrity.
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Never!

I reckon she hit form on 31st October 2023 and on this corresponding day in 2024.

She may yet hit form in December/January as it's been a dry autumn and that may have set her back, given the type of horses she tends to recruit, but Djelo won well enough start of the month, it's been barren since and it's starting to feel like a can getting kicked further down the road.

Her two today won the same races last year - interesting.
 
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