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My notebook runners

Back home again so able to pick up the threads.

2:37 Kelso Matata - went close in this last year and it’s an easier contest than the Shloer which is what I was looking for. Sean Bowen is up today which is hardly a disadvantage. 14/11 Matata ran a fine race in the Shloer and although he wouldn’t have troubled the winner he would likely have held onto second place but for very nearly unseating at the last. If he goes for an easier contest he’ll be hard to beat.
 
Bloody Hell. As if I’m not in enough trouble, I’ve just bitten into a slice of toast and broken one of my front teeth clean off.

Anyway, jumping wasn’t up to it for Matata, but better jumping would only have only got him a bit closer in third. Nothing today.
 
12:35 Hereford: Rock Sensation makes her hurdle debut having caught the eye in a Listed bumper at Cheltenham - 15/11 raced second last until push came to shove when she found herself stuck behind the pack with nowhere to go. She eventually found a route with little over a furlong left and finished strongly then, but couldn’t do better than fourth. - Assuming she jumps well enough, she should at least give the Henderson odds-on favourite something to think about.
 
Rock Sensation jumped sharply right at the second hurdle on Wednesday and unseated, so we’ll never know.

1:15 Cheltenham: Fortune De Mer has run some nice races in good company and showed he can handle his handicap mark last time - 21/11 on handicap debut raced at the back until two out when made a strong challenge through the field polishing off all but the winner. Jumped very nicely as well. - This race has a few sharks lurking in the waters, though.

1:50 Cheltenham: The Doyen Chief was a notebook horse after his Bangor run - 12/11 2nd. He had moved through to lead before the last, but made a clumsy jump and took a bit to get going again, which probably made the difference. He was 7/4 favourite. - Next came the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury where the farcical start put paid to his chances, so this one is something of a recovery mission. He’s drifted like a barge, though, so I doubt I’ll play.

12:15 Doncaster: Top Target ran a decent race last time on his chase debut - 1/11: led over the last until last fifty when ran out of puff. Should have tuned him up for next time. - He tackles 3m for the first time under rules today, so should be just a watch really.
 
Fortune De Mer won very nicely under a super ride from Harry Skelton. The market called it for The Doyen Chief who conked out on the run in.Top Target was less than a length down and still going ok when he fell at the last, so will be worth another go.

12:25 Doncaster: Jordan’s Cross was put up four pounds after falling at the last - 16/11 he was favourite waiting for room around the final bend and he came to join leader just before the last where he fell. His jumping had been pretty good until then and his strong challenge would have likely taken him to the win. - which always leaves a bit of a sour taste. On the other hand it’s less that he would have got if he’d won, so you could say he’s a bit well-in.

12:40 Cheltenham: Zertakt looked to have it in the bag coming to the last - 9/11 he had moved three lengths clear and still going strong when he was dreadfully slow over the last losing his momentum and all advantage. It’s difficult not to think that he’d have won if he’d clambered over the fence just a tad quicker.- If he’d been on his last gasp it’s a bit shorter this time.

1:50 Cheltenham: Martator ran an encouraging race last time - 22/11 was seventh and a good bit behind two out, fifth but close at the last and then finished very strongly to snatch second on the line. Good run and should be ready now. - and the extra distance today should suit. It’s a hot race, though.

3:35 Cheltenham: Jubilee Alpha ran a strong race last time, but was undone by the second last - 8/11 raced at back, cruised into contention before two out where he made a mistake and had to be snatched up. Lost momentum and couldn’t get back to winner in time. Unlucky. - He looks to have the legs of these today and should make amends.
 
Nice day. Jordan’s Cross and Zertakt both won nicely. Martator ran no sort of race and Jubilee Alpha came to challenge, cocked-up the second last and lost momentum again. Worth one more chance.

Nothing today.
 
2:00 Wincanton: Bespoke Tailor ran well in a pretty decent Class 2 at Cheltenham last time - 16/11 came to take it up after the last and although he ran on well he was overtaken by two good ones with everything else well behind. He’ll win one. - This one is Class 4 and he only has the favourite to beat.
 
Neither Winston Junior nor Old Park Star broke sweat in winning, with the latter a real “wow” performance which saw him installed as Supreme favourite, whilst the former, too, was installed as favourite for the Fred Winter. Jonbon won at an unheard of 6/1.

Windsor 3:00 - Handstands is very highly thought of by Ben Pauling - “Exceptional and soft palate now sorted. Will go for the Fleur De Lys at Windsor.”- but for some weird reason he’s miles wrong at the weights having to give eight pounds to Protectorate who is rated eleven pounds his superior. He might cope, but just a watch for me I think.

Windsor 3:35 Jupiter Des Bordes is interesting since he ran quite conservatively last time over the longest distance he has faced - 30/12 he ran on strongly at the finish to get within not much more than half a length of the winner, which proved that he can handle these marathon distances and he’ll be able to run accordingly next time. - He’s another watch really, but I’ll see if the market has anything to say.
 
Decided that if I wasn’t taking Handstands because he was so disadvantaged with Protectorate then I better have a little on that one instead. Couldn’t believe the ITV gang didn’t make anything of the weight difference, but Ben Jones said afterwards that the weight got to Handstands in the end. Showed up well, though. The market stayed silent for Jupiter Des Bordes and that’s how he ran. He kept a bit more up with the pace this time and I don’t think he stayed the last bit despite last time. He’s out.

Nothing today.
 
It’s woefully thin gruel at the moment, but there is one of interest that again is more of a watch than a bet.

Catterick 1:17: Alsakib won a Group3 on the flat at York eighteen months ago and continued to contest Class1 races over the last flat season, albeit a bit disappointing. 100,000gns took him out of Andrew Balding’s yard to try jumping and he showed up pretty well on his Wetherby debut - 27/12 pretty decent hurdle debut in second and one to keep an eye on. - The extra distance today should suit, but he does have a decent odds-on favourite to overcome. A possible for the future, but maybe worth a nibble today.
 
barjon said:
It’s woefully thin gruel at the moment, but there is one of interest that again is more of a watch than a bet.

Catterick 1:17: Alsakib won a Group3 on the flat at York eighteen months ago and continued to contest Class1 races over the last flat season, albeit a bit disappointing. 100,000gns took him out of Andrew Balding’s yard to try jumping and he showed up pretty well on his Wetherby debut - 27/12 pretty decent hurdle debut in second and one to keep an eye on. - The extra distance today should suit, but he does have a decent odds-on favourite to overcome. A possible for the future, but maybe worth a nibble today.
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I did have a nibble. He didn't jump that quick on debut, but I'm hoping for improvement. I'll have a pop at 4/1 given the flat form.
 
Aye, market was weak which was off putting, but he raced prominently enough until going out like a light in the last couple of furlongs. Maybe didn’t stay the extra distance after all. I’ll keep him in the notebook, but definitely just for watching unless the market shouts.
 
RP analysis: Alsakib, a 1m6f Group 3 winner on the flat, promised to be suited by this step up in trip after an encouraging hurdling debut but was well beaten. He will be worth another chance and should be of interest when eligible for handicaps.
 
Oh to be a horse - what horrible conditions. Alsakib on Thursday was weak in the market, but raced prominently and looked quite threatening until the last couple of furlongs when he went out like a light. At first glance he didn’t get the extra distance, but the conditions may have had a bit to do with it. Worth another look, but not a bet until handicapping unless the market shouts loudly.

Going looks awful all round today, so not a day to go mad unless sure underfoot conditions suit. Typically, on Cheltenham trials day I’ve got a shed full of runners opposing each other and I don’t fancy picking and choosing much. The market might have a say, otherwise it’ll be watching again as far as any serious bets go.

12:40 Maestro Conti - 27/12 a pretty convincing win, but not sure about the quality of the others so need to watch again next time. - and Minella Yogi - 29/12 won very nicely. Nicholls reckons he’s one of the best youngster's he’s got and there will be more to come. - He must be laughing to have beaten Act Of Innocence the 2/7 favourite who was so rudely snatched from his care. He had pitched Minella Yogi in against his elders as well as the heavy favourite. Only three quarters of a length between them and the rest were a dozen lengths away. I noted Act Of Innocencethat day, too, because he was trying to give Minella Yogi twenty pounds (see later).

3:00 Sir Gino - I haven’t got one to oppose him, but he’s a no bet heavy odds on

4:10 Act Of Innocence - 29/11 it may prove the he was facing a mammoth task trying to hold Minella Yogi giving twenty pounds. Well clear of the remainder and worth another chance.

Taurus Bay - 6/12 he had won readily at Stratford and he improved miles on ratings to win this time. Although this was only a three horse race, he galloped away from the odds-on favourite to win by four lengths. That favourite went on to win next time recording the same mark.

The Blue Room - 5/12 made a mistake two out, but recovered from the last and finished best of all behind the cantered in winner.

So, if Minella Yogi wins the first well it’s going to be good news for Act Of Innocence. Unfortunately that one has been drifting a bit this morning, but (against my better judgement) I’ve had a starter on Act Of Innocence in case and will (maybe) add if Minella Yogi wins, although I expect the price will be all the poorer.
 
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barjon said:
So, if Minella Yogi wins the first well it’s going to be good news for Act Of Innocence. Unfortunately that one has been drifting a bit this morning, but (against my better judgement) I’ve had a starter on Act Of Innocence in case and will (maybe) add if Minella Yogi wins, although I expect the price will be all the poorer.
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I'm interpreting the drift on Act of Innocence as concerns that he won't be as effective over the extra distance in these conditions. Connections originally had him down as more likely for the Supreme and Old Park Star as likely to want further.
I've laid off my Turners bet on AOI to wait and see.
 
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