Feck it!
Just noticed, missed a 100-1 winner in NZ Saturday and an 18-1 in France yesterday. That's going to smart for a few hours.
So, I will let go some emotion (now I have an outlet), rather than just file it in deepest memory and move on as usual.
*************
So, over the last 10-15 years, I've been reminded time and again...the way I make (most) selections, it's ultimately the ones I miss (or deliberately leave alone, in painful error) rather than the ones I get that are highly likely to make the end difference. That 'end difference' is essentially 'can I even carry on backing horses before money availability/disposability reaches the almost certain point of 'eat, heat, or bet'.
But I still haven't learned that f$%^ing lesson.
ofc NZ is (mildly) understandable. Back through mid-late November, on the back of a hot winning streak at the time, I was checking AUS and NZ runners near daily. Takes a little time, though not overly painful. But the biggest problem is the time difference essentially makes it unworkable. Because of that time difference, all you can go on is the BF market hours before the races, and there's no liquidity to give any real clue that they might go off at the odds I want. Gradually, I stopped looking.
The 100-1 shot was in a Group 3, though. A nonsensical miss, assume at least 200 on BF, maybe more. and it would have been available some time before the race.
France yesterday. No excuse. How tf did I miss that? OK, so not such a big deal at a likely 30 or so, but (still) you just don't throw away 30+ winners.
***************
The issue is...the next losing run is always just around the corner. Just the same as the next winner is around the corner. Always.
If that losing run comes now, on the back of a reasonably good run, what I said above becomes a potential reality (again, it's happened before, it's highly likely to happen again).
And now I'm thinking, how do I avoid it. Or at least lessen the chances of it happening.
The answer is, I don't know. Even after all these years, and all this experience. I don't know.
Cautious staking. Maybe. Increased selectivity. Maybe. But I'm not sure either of those are truly optimal.
The worst thing is, I knew it was a problem. I can even remember not much more than 6 weeks ago saying to my lad after we had it off on a 40-1 shot 'don't get too cocky, it's the ones you miss that'll count at the death'...and f%*& me, here it is again.
***********************
Walked away, made a cup of coffee.
**********************
The answer, ofc, is don't miss them.
But...
There's another challenge.
I'm going to call it resilience. That's the subject of the next blog article.
For now, I'm OK. Think it helped getting it down. On to today.
Just noticed, missed a 100-1 winner in NZ Saturday and an 18-1 in France yesterday. That's going to smart for a few hours.
So, I will let go some emotion (now I have an outlet), rather than just file it in deepest memory and move on as usual.
*************
So, over the last 10-15 years, I've been reminded time and again...the way I make (most) selections, it's ultimately the ones I miss (or deliberately leave alone, in painful error) rather than the ones I get that are highly likely to make the end difference. That 'end difference' is essentially 'can I even carry on backing horses before money availability/disposability reaches the almost certain point of 'eat, heat, or bet'.
But I still haven't learned that f$%^ing lesson.
ofc NZ is (mildly) understandable. Back through mid-late November, on the back of a hot winning streak at the time, I was checking AUS and NZ runners near daily. Takes a little time, though not overly painful. But the biggest problem is the time difference essentially makes it unworkable. Because of that time difference, all you can go on is the BF market hours before the races, and there's no liquidity to give any real clue that they might go off at the odds I want. Gradually, I stopped looking.
The 100-1 shot was in a Group 3, though. A nonsensical miss, assume at least 200 on BF, maybe more. and it would have been available some time before the race.
France yesterday. No excuse. How tf did I miss that? OK, so not such a big deal at a likely 30 or so, but (still) you just don't throw away 30+ winners.
***************
The issue is...the next losing run is always just around the corner. Just the same as the next winner is around the corner. Always.
If that losing run comes now, on the back of a reasonably good run, what I said above becomes a potential reality (again, it's happened before, it's highly likely to happen again).
And now I'm thinking, how do I avoid it. Or at least lessen the chances of it happening.
The answer is, I don't know. Even after all these years, and all this experience. I don't know.
Cautious staking. Maybe. Increased selectivity. Maybe. But I'm not sure either of those are truly optimal.
The worst thing is, I knew it was a problem. I can even remember not much more than 6 weeks ago saying to my lad after we had it off on a 40-1 shot 'don't get too cocky, it's the ones you miss that'll count at the death'...and f%*& me, here it is again.
***********************
Walked away, made a cup of coffee.
**********************
The answer, ofc, is don't miss them.
But...
There's another challenge.
I'm going to call it resilience. That's the subject of the next blog article.
For now, I'm OK. Think it helped getting it down. On to today.
