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The 2026 William Hill Handicap Hurdle

Slim said:
I really fancy All In You for this. He's got a really disguised profile for a horse with so much experience. You can't beat the Schwepps to throw up some unexposed graded horses.
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I'm calling a fully intentional foul ! No way you could even see over the betting counter when this was called the schweppes.
 
Slim said:
I really fancy All In You for this. He's got a really disguised profile for a horse with so much experience. You can't beat the Schwepps to throw up some unexposed graded horses.
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I do think for Irish horses in particular the DRF two-miler and the County are now more important, more so for the sense of occasion if not necessarily for the prize money. I think Essex about 20 years ago is the last Irish winner. That's surprising in the big scheme of things compared with the excellent winners of the County they've had.

Could it be the Irish trainers think if they win the Schweppes the UK handicapper will add an arbitrary 7lbs to the festival handicap marks?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I do think for Irish horses in particular the DRF two-miler and the County are now more important, more so for the sense of occasion if not necessarily for the prize money. I think Essex about 20 years ago is the last Irish winner. That's surprising in the big scheme of things compared with the excellent winners of the County they've had.

Could it be the Irish trainers think if they win the Schweppes the UK handicapper will add an arbitrary 7lbs to the festival handicap marks?
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Didn’t Essex win both when the calendar allowed it? You can’t do both now. The 2m handicap at the DRF was as poor an edition as I’ve seen. I Started A Joke was sent off 7/4 not only because he was unexposed and his mark was lenient, but because he was literally the only horse in the race with that profile.
 
Slim said:
I Started A Joke was sent off 7/4 not only because he was unexposed and his mark was lenient, but because he was literally the only horse in the race with that profile.
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Do you really think so, Slim?

15 of the 20 runners were 5yos or 6yos, first- or second-season novices and 16 were rated lower than 140.

That smacks of more potential jobs than at the local buroo.

Future form might well prove you correct but it would be a poor future for Irish hurdling if that's as good as they were.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Do you really think so, Slim?

15 of the 20 runners were 5yos or 6yos, first- or second-season novices and 16 were rated lower than 140.

That smacks of more potential jobs than at the local buroo.
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I'll put it this way, I'm unlikely to be backing anything out of that race before the end of the season. Murcia would be the only one, ideal for the County but she looks a bit of a screw. Watch back what she was at before the tapes went up.
 
I missed the start and noted she came through strongly late after racing wide throughout (reminds me of another future Mullins job from a season or two back). I'll give it another watch.

I actually passed up the opportunity to cash out for a lovely profit on the combo doubles and then when I checked the betting about five minutes before the off and saw how ridiculously short ISAJ - the Bee Gees' song has been in my head since I looked at the card earlier - was I was very sorely tempted but I banked on it getting beat. Unfortunately for me the winner wasn't really on my radar and Murcia was the closest any of mine got. She got me four place doubles from the earlier race but just got me my money back.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I missed the start and noted she came through strongly late after racing wide throughout (reminds me of another future Mullins job from a season or two back). I'll give it another watch.

I actually passed up the opportunity to cash out for a lovely profit on the combo doubles and then when I checked the betting about five minutes before the off and saw how ridiculously short ISAJ - the Bee Gees' song has been in my head since I looked at the card earlier - was I was very sorely tempted but I banked on it getting beat. Unfortunately for me the winner wasn't really on my radar and Murcia was the closest any of mine got. She got me four place doubles from the earlier race but just got me my money back.
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The horse she beat in last year's Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree is a lot of people's fancy for the County Hurdle - Live Conti (10/1 NRNB with Bet 365 ). Murcia is one point bigger.
 
Like calling it the Schweppes is one thing turning in into the County antepost thread is another. We're past the point of fines here i think. Over to Judge Davies for the sentencing.
 
Slim said:
I really fancy All In You for this. He's got a really disguised profile for a horse with so much experience. You can't beat the Schwepps to throw up some unexposed graded horses.
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I can see the thinking.

Dance And Glance is closely matched with him and carries 6lbs less. Anthony Honeyball knows how to get a good one to keep improving. Both have big each way chances I think, but I slightly prefer the Dance And Glance, having had a bit more racing experience over here aswell.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
I can see the thinking.

Dance And Glance is closely matched with him and carries 6lbs less. Anthony Honeyball knows how to get a good one to keep improving. Both have big each way chances I think, but I slightly prefer the Dance And Glance, having had a bit more racing experience over here aswell.
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All In You is far less exposed. I'm be surprised if he couldn't confirm the form with the 6lbs extra.
 
My biggest concern with All in you is run style. If it's testing at Newbury I've seen plenty of jog and sprints there where they all stack up and get racing from the last bend. It makes it a difficult task if he's ridden as he was last time and dropped right out back.
 
Yep, Danny. I see that too.

Dance And Glance at 3 times the price, aswell. With respect to Warren Greatrex, I'd have Honeyball as more of a man to get one to improve to win a race like this. That's just my personal preference.

The Skelton horse could be absolutely anything of course. I can't rule her out, but do I want to pretty much back her blind at 11/4, no thanks.
 
Danny said:
My biggest concern with All in you is run style. If it's testing at Newbury I've seen plenty of jog and sprints there where they all stack up and get racing from the last bend. It makes it a difficult task if he's ridden as he was last time and dropped right out back.
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It's a horrible track to be caught wide.
 
All about what horse is on what curve, isn't it.

At some stage one has to factor the price available too I reckon.

Hence, backing plotty plotty things at 11/4 for races like this is not for me. Even if they are trained by Dan Skelton.

Looking forward to it anyway. I'll shut me hole now.
 
The Skelton thing is hardly a plot. The definition of a plot is one that's had his ability hidden from the handicapper and the general public, then turns up for the race at a price that gets gambled knowing the handbrake has been let off. Let it Rain isn't that. It ran a smashing race at Ascot was far too keen and some sketchy jumps mixed in with some very good ones but his ability and potential has been plain to see hence him being favourite. He's very unexposed but also very inexperienced it's not saying he won't take a good grip here and mess a few hurdles again too. You make a good point Martin that there isnt really much juice in the price.

If you watch that race back All in you is much more polished and professional, relaxed very good at his hurdles as he has been on both his starts this season. Watching that again he'd have still been the one I'd want to take out of it even over the Skelton beast. I'd put him in a multiple at 10's antepost but all things being equal Id still think he was a bet at 5's its just I've been caught out in this race too many times backing hold up horses. For any chance of the win you're hoping the race pans out for him and will probably be holding your breath if you've bet him that he gets a run at the front runners early enough. Or even they can ride him tucked away on the inside a bit closer to the pace that would be nice. That said this type of horse the way he runs and the way he wins being delivered late can be nightmare for the handicapper to try to get a hold of.

As said earlier on both his previous starts he's been dropped right out the back. The problem in a race like this is if they don't go hell for leather you can end up giving a horse far too much to do in the straight. This gets amplified if your sitting at the back of the pack and the pack let a couple go off a few lengths clear in front. One who might try that is Uns sens la vie. Last time out he nicked a few lengths at the start made all and strung a field right out. As with Let it rain he hardly looked like the finished article and ran right down the first flight. However looking at his previous race trying to give weight to Old park star with hindsight now looks a bit unfair. Fortune timmy who was behind him there ran a cracker at Cheltenham in the dark. Every chance they could spin him off the front end again, his form looks solid enough. Out of the first 3 in the betting at the current prices he might be a more solid proposition for an ew to nothing as he requires no luck in running. If he goes off the front end he might well last home he might get done by 1 or 2 but the chances that 3 or 4 get past him are imo very slim indeed.

There are a couple of outsiders i could make a decent case for too. So it looks like a great race I'm happy to sit on the fence and cheer All in you on for the multi but won't be adding to that bet wise.

Good luck.
 
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Danny said:
The Skelton thing is hardly a plot. The definition of a plot is one that's had his ability hidden from the handicapper and the general public, then turns up for the race at a price that gets gambled knowing the handbrake has been let off. Let it Rain isn't that. It ran a smashing race at Ascot was far too keen and some sketchy jumps mixed in with some very good ones but his ability and potential has been plain to see hence him being favourite. He's very unexposed but also very inexperienced it's not saying he won't take a good grip here and mess a few hurdles again too. You make a good point Martin that there isnt really much juice in the price.

If you watch that race back All in you is much more polished and professional, relaxed very good at his hurdles as he has been on both his starts this season. Watching that again he'd have still been the one I'd want to take out of it even over the Skelton beast. I'd put him in a multiple at 10's antepost but all things being equal Id still think he was a bet at 5's its just I've been caught out in this race too many times backing hold up horses. For any chance of the win you're hoping the race pans out for him and will probably be holding your breath if you've bet him that he gets a run at the front runners early enough. Or even they can ride him tucked away on the inside a bit closer to the pace that would be nice. That said this type of horse the way he runs and the way he wins being delivered late can be nightmare for the handicapper to try to get a hold of.

As said earlier on both his previous starts he's been dropped right out the back. The problem in a race like this is if they don't go hell for leather you can end up giving a horse far too much to do in the straight. This gets amplified if your sitting at the back of the pack and the pack let a couple go off a few lengths clear in front. One who might try that is Uns sens la vie. Last time out he nicked a few lengths at the start made all and strung a field right out. As with Let it rain he hardly looked like the finished article and ran right down the first flight. However looking at his previous race trying to give weight to Old park star with hindsight now looks a bit unfair. Fortune timmy who was behind him there ran a cracker at Cheltenham in the dark. Every chance they could spin him off the front end again, his form looks solid enough. Out of the first 3 in the betting at the current prices he might be a more solid proposition for an ew to nothing as he requires no luck in running. If he goes off the front end he might well last home he might get done by 1 or 2 but the chances that 3 or 4 get past him are imo very slim indeed.

There are a couple of outsiders i could make a decent case for too. So it looks like a great race I'm happy to sit on the fence and cheer All in you on for the multi but won't be adding to that bet wise.

Good luck.
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Thanks Dan, great stuff.

Yeah, my wording was flawed (or left open to misinterpretation, let's say). What I should have said is 'prepared like a preparedy preparedy thing'.

That means since the Warwick bumper in 2023, and (I don't know how long Skelton has actually had her), maybe for a year or two before that.

The thing is...I believe Live Conti would have walked it...with over a stone more than Let It Rain.

And the fact that Skelton likely (along with the bookies and everyone else) believes that Conti will now win the County (before taking next year's Arkle), suggests he already knew he had Saturday's winner and could afford to let Conti stay home in the warm.

The only other likely interpretation I see is he thought there just wasn't quite enough time between Windsor and Newbury, and Windsor all along was actually the County prep. We'll see if Conti pops up in something between now and March.

Like most, thoughts are the current price for Saturday doesn't look attractive. But it will afterwards if she pisses it. What price then the Mares. And, barring those at the top of the market already mentioned, it doesn't look a particularly deep field.

There's a chance she could get the BF icy symbol on Saturday, given the chances on paper of the other two. That might make it look a little more attractive on the day.
 

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