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The 2026 William Hill Handicap Hurdle

Desert Orchid said:
It was heavy at Leopardstown last week. The leader ended up beaten over 16 lengths. The winner was out the back early. The winner's closing sectional was over 100% but below optimal. It was arguably slowing the least.

I suspect the ground at Newbury was heavier but TQ went faster than the leader at Leopardstown. His closing section was around 98% so definitely slowing. Every physical element of the race says TQ should have stopped to a walk by three out in much the same way as the horse that finished last. In sectional terms you could argue that TQ is worth a huge mark-up for winning so well despite a very inefficient distribution of its energy.
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I don't rate that Leopardstown race at all. The horse that was fourth was basically not off and the only proper unexposed horse in the race somehow found a way to get beat.
 
Slim said:
I don't rate that Leopardstown race at all. The horse that was fourth was basically not off and the only proper unexposed horse in the race somehow found a way to get beat.
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It is the most valuable 2m hcap hurdle in these islands, almost certainly in Europe, possibly in the world. I can get that one or two might have been using the race as a prep for Cheltenham but it is often the best hcap hurdle form in Ireland at the very least.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It is the most valuable 2m hcap hurdle in these islands, almost certainly in Europe, possibly in the world. I can get that one or two might have been using the race as a prep for Cheltenham but it is often the best hcap hurdle form in Ireland at the very least.
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“Almost certainly in Europe” is meaningless. We are dealing with a depleted hurdling division where winning handicaps no longer has any historical context. When was the last time a handicap winner properly moved up to Grade 1 company? State Man only did it because he fell at Leopardstown. There has never been a bigger gulf between handicap hurdlers and graded horses. Throw in the dire ground and I can safely say I will never look at the form of yesterday’s race again as a pointer to backing winners going forward.
 
I didn't say it was rammed with G1 horses but it is traditionally rammed with horses that will pick up lesser races as and when connections want.

Same with the Schweppes.

Epatante won the GF off 137, went up to 150, won the Christmas Hurdle and then the CH when rated 159 and went up to 162 for it. How far would she have won the Schweppes if they'd protected her mark for it?
 
It's 2026 where the top rated horse would barely get into a Cheltenham handicap. The name of the race doesn't elevate it beyond what it was, a shit race.
 
Len Madeiros said:
Btw, the field for the 1975 ‘Schweppes’.

That’s a chunk of weight for Lanzarote to be carrying! Tammuz, in receipt of 20 pounds, won the race.
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Bird's Nest carrying 10-7 and beaten; shades of Harchibald losing a County Hurdle off 10 stone.
Tammuz a half brother to Highclere ; his lad got a wonderful gift from The Queen Mother to remember his day by.
 
edgt said:
Bird's Nest carrying 10-7 and beaten; shades of Harchibald losing a County Hurdle off 10 stone.
Tammuz a half brother to Highclere ; his lad got a wonderful gift from The Queen Mother to remember his day by.
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Do I remember correctly that Birds Nest, like Harchibald, didn’t like to go past the horse that was leading?
 
I saw Olive Nicholls today at Larkhill point to point and had a chat about Tutti Fruity. She said they think he's up to being supplemented but only if the ground is soft there.

I asked about No Drama :love: and she said he was likely to be out next weekend as a prep for Cheltenham

Also had a quick chat with Paul about something else but he's incredibly approachable when pointing - an ex inmate of his, Gelino Bello won the Conditions race (not sure if he's part of the syndicate).
 
Len Madeiros said:
Do I remember correctly that Birds Nest, like Harchibald, didn’t like to go past the horse that was leading?
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He had his quirks for sure but when on song could pass the most of them .
My first memory of him is defeating Night Nurse 15L in 1976 Fighting Fifth Hurdle.
One Bula Hurdle,( it must have been 1980) off a trotting pace Andy sent into a clear lead only to stop to a trot turning down the back straight.
Passed by all he still won the final sprint from the last from Connaught Ranger and Heighlin, if memory recalls.
 
Slim said:
It's 2026 where the top rated horse would barely get into a Cheltenham handicap. The name of the race doesn't elevate it beyond what it was, a shit race.
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This

It's not the race it was, just look at the y'tube link i put up from 1994

1st- Large Action
2nd- Oh So Risky
3rd- Flakey Dove

Champion hurdle that year

1st- Flakey Dove
2nd- Oh So Risky
3rd- Large Action
 
Truncheon said:
This

It's not the race it was, just look at the y'tube link i put up from 1994

1st- Large Action
2nd- Oh So Risky
3rd- Flakey Dove

Champion hurdle that year

1st- Flakey Dove
2nd- Oh So Risky
3rd- Large Action
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Flakey Dove was the worst winner in my time watching the race.

But what won in what year is irrelevant. It's the value of the form.

We're obviously in disagreement about what yesterday's form amounts to. I don't know about the rest of you but I'm happy to wait and see how it pans out in the races to come.

And just to repeat, I've never said TQ will win the Champion Hurdle.
 
edgt said:
He had his quirks for sure but when on song could pass the most of them .
My first memory of him is defeating Night Nurse 15L in 1976 Fighting Fifth Hurdle.
One Bula Hurdle,( it must have been 1980) off a trotting pace Andy sent into a clear lead only to stop to a trot turning down the back straight.
Passed by all he still won the final sprint from the last from Connaught Ranger and Heighlin, if memory recalls.
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Sea Pigeon was the one who didn't want to be in front too long - Ian Watkinson rode him well, ditto Mark Birch on the Flat, Jonjo O'Neill was a bit in and out on him and the horse got his best ever ride off John Francome in the 1981 Champion Hurdle.

I was at Doncaster in 1978 when Connaught Ranger made his hurdling debut and later that month (January) I saw him get done in the Brewers Hurdle there on a day when Autumn Rain beat subsequent Grand National winner Lucius in the Great Yorkshire and Night Nurse simply outfought Birds Nest in the Yorkshire Hurdle:
 
Desert Orchid said:
RPRs weren't up this morning but they are now.

TQ 154

I suspect ORs and Timeform will be in the same ballpark when they appear.
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They've already upgraded it to 155. A very small step in the right direction. I won't be surprised if that figures continues to get upgrade not unlike Galway Blaze back in the day.
 
Imagine The Wallpark will dodge Cheltenham and run in the Irish National. Gordon's stable tour was like '... there are targets at home' for almost all of the horses so know what he wants to do. JP would probably prefer an Irish National win to the Ultima.
 
The Wallpark will need to learn to jump fences better to be a realistic contender at any of the spring festivals as his jumping has been woeful, not least in yesterday’s race. But it’s possible he’ll do better on spring ground
 

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