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The 2026 William Hill Handicap Hurdle

Slim said:
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That was a poor reply. I hope you see from my latest Point Blank article that I'm sick of horses like him.
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I'm not necessarily interested in him myself, but he was being discussed so I took a look at a couple of races he could conceivably go for - he's also 10/1 NRNB with Bet365 for the Ultima - but these are all races I won't much think about until the 48-hour stage.
 
Just been looking at TQ’s back form. 27 length 6th in last year’s Supreme, and a 25 length 6th in a 2 miler round Chepstow (a course that has the undulating similarities of Cheltenham).

I think TQ may just be a flat-track bully. A very, very good one, mind.
 
That level of evidence would still be a bit thin for me but it's an angle worth having at the back of my mind.

It looked to me in the Supreme - he was the only non-Irish runner, was rated 125 and went off at 125/1) - that he couldn't go the early pace and was totally looked after in the final mile. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chepstow run was all about consolidating a lenient mark.

The Gerry Fielden certainly popped my eyes for me. I remember not backing it the night before in order to wait for the BOG on the Saturday morning but it had been slashed by then and I thought fvck it. I can't even remember now if I had a bet in the race; I'd need to check back.

Anyway, this is Timeform's rubric to accompany that rating:

The William Hill Hurdle is typically an ultra-competitive handicap but was blown apart this year by the progressive Tutti Quanti who registered a 15-length victory, the largest winning margin in the race this century (topping the 11 lengths registered by Agrapart in 2016). On the face of it, a much-improved Timeform rating of 155 puts Tutti Quanti in the Champion Hurdle picture in a wide-open year as the favourite, The New Lion, is rated 161p. However, Timeform's reporter for the William Hill Hurdle outlined that the form should be treated with some caution. Nearly half the field failed to complete and those who did finish came home at wide margins, underlining how extreme conditions were. Tutti Quanti clearly coped well with the ground but was probably also at a tactical advantage in front, avoiding all the kickback. It was also a lower-quality renewal than usual as no top weight in the race this century has competed from a BHA mark as low as Tutti Quanti's 138. It was clearly a notable performance, rated the best since My Tent Or Yours strolled to victory in 2013, but there have to be some doubts over whether he will replicate the performance under more conventional conditions.
 
Desert Orchid said:
That level of evidence would still be a bit thin for me but it's an angle worth having at the back of my mind.

It looked to me in the Supreme - he was the only non-Irish runner, was rated 125 and went off at 125/1) - that he couldn't go the early pace and was totally looked after in the final mile. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chepstow run was all about consolidating a lenient mark.

The Gerry Fielden certainly popped my eyes for me. I remember not backing it the night before in order to wait for the BOG on the Saturday morning but it had been slashed by then and I thought fvck it. I can't even remember now if I had a bet in the race; I'd need to check back.

Anyway, this is Timeform's rubric to accompany that rating:

The William Hill Hurdle is typically an ultra-competitive handicap but was blown apart this year by the progressive Tutti Quanti who registered a 15-length victory, the largest winning margin in the race this century (topping the 11 lengths registered by Agrapart in 2016). On the face of it, a much-improved Timeform rating of 155 puts Tutti Quanti in the Champion Hurdle picture in a wide-open year as the favourite, The New Lion, is rated 161p. However, Timeform's reporter for the William Hill Hurdle outlined that the form should be treated with some caution. Nearly half the field failed to complete and those who did finish came home at wide margins, underlining how extreme conditions were. Tutti Quanti clearly coped well with the ground but was probably also at a tactical advantage in front, avoiding all the kickback. It was also a lower-quality renewal than usual as no top weight in the race this century has competed from a BHA mark as low as Tutti Quanti's 138. It was clearly a notable performance, rated the best since My Tent Or Yours strolled to victory in 2013, but there have to be some doubts over whether he will replicate the performance under more conventional conditions.
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I mean, that is a hell of a jump in his rating from this time last year, but I would struggle to build even an each-way case, for a horse that finished sixth in the previous year’s Supreme. Mind you, the Champion Hurdle looks pretty dire this year.
 
Len Madeiros said:
I mean, that is a hell of a jump in his rating from this time last year, but I would struggle to build even an each-way case, for a horse that finished sixth in the previous year’s Supreme. Mind you, the Champion Hurdle looks pretty dire this year.
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Ratings improvements on that kind of level are nothing too unusual in younger horses, especially in Ireland.

Make A Stand started his Champion Hurdle season rated 117!

Couldn't win the Greatwood off 127 but three weeks later won the big 2m hcap hdle at Sandown off that mark, then the Lanzarote (then a 2m race) off 136, then the Schweppes off 140 and on his next tunr won the Champion Hurdle itself. His OR for that isn't published but his RPR was 167 so it couldn't have been far off that.

I might not happen every year but it probably happens more than you think.

I couldn't find a properly worded question that would get me other such improvers via Google but as and when they come to me I'll give them a mensh.

I do see all the reasons for exercising caution over TQ - of course I do - but if he was off 155 the other day and all the others were carrying 10-stone, would any of them have been able to run any faster than they did? I reckon he could have run the exact same race with the same weight and still won by a long way. Maybe not quite as far but certainly by a long way.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I couldn't find a properly worded question that would get me other such improvers via Google but as and when they come to me I'll give them a mensh.
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Hunt Ball, who won the two and a half miles novices' handicap chase at Cheltenham in 2012, is the one great ratings improver which I remembered immediately. I've looked up his figures, and he was rated 68 before his first win of seven that season and 157 after finishing third in the Grade 1 Betfred Bowl at Aintree.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ratings improvements on that kind of level are nothing too unusual in younger horses, especially in Ireland.

Make A Stand started his Champion Hurdle season rated 117!

Couldn't win the Greatwood off 127 but three weeks later won the big 2m hcap hdle at Sandown off that mark, then the Lanzarote (then a 2m race) off 136, then the Schweppes off 140 and on his next tunr won the Champion Hurdle itself. His OR for that isn't published but his RPR was 167 so it couldn't have been far off that.

I might not happen every year but it probably happens more than you think.

I couldn't find a properly worded question that would get me other such improvers via Google but as and when they come to me I'll give them a mensh.

I do see all the reasons for exercising caution over TQ - of course I do - but if he was off 155 the other day and all the others were carrying 10-stone, would any of them have been able to run any faster than they did? I reckon he could have run the exact same race with the same weight and still won by a long way. Maybe not quite as far but certainly by a long way.
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Explain this formline:

Full Result 1.15 Newbury | 8 February 2025 | Racing Post

Full Race Result from the 1.15 at Newbury on 8th February 2025.
www.racingpost.com www.racingpost.com
 
Just out of curiosity, I wanted to see if ATR had an 'expert view take on the race', the way Simon Rowlands (has he retired?) used to do but there's nothing up yet. However on the 'Home' page Tom Collins says the following in his 'expert analysis' item:

Another noteworthy performance at Newbury came from Tutti Quanti , who galloped his rivals into submission in the aforementioned William Hill Hurdle and could potentially earn a spot in the Champion Hurdle next month. Harry Cobden went a fierce gallop through the first four furlongs, which earned him a notable lead on testing ground, and they never reeled him back in.

Tutti Quanti’s Finishing Speed Percentage was just 98.77%, suggesting that even he got tired in the latter part of the race despite winning with consummate ease. His big move came between the four-furlong marker and two-furlong marker when he posted a 29.71s split, just under a second faster than runner-up Wellington Arch and much quicker than any other horse in the field.

He may have been flattered by the way the race panned out and will need significant improvement to win a Champion Hurdle, especially on better ground.

That's pretty superficial and disappointing from an 'analysis' perspective - I think more has been said in this thread - and I'll be looking at what the Form Book analysis says later today. If I get the chance later I'll post it.
 
Can’t. The handicapper has concluded that he has run a personal best of +13lbs in attritional conditions on Saturday. Really?
 
It's arguable Tutti Quanti - in a race where various horses didn't run to form in conditions so bad six pulled up in a 2m hurdle race ffs - nevertheless ran to 150 plus on Saturday.

And when they run the Champion Hurdle at Newbury on identical ground it's time to take him seriously at big odds.

Someone please let me know if they switch the race venue and the weather forecast turns even more dire for March than it has been so far this year.

Until then, consider the possibility the beast might not be quite so effective on very possibly better ground round Prestbury Park on the cusp of spring.
 
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I’ve littered the board stressing the dire going. I can’t speak for the last two races since gone by then, but the winners dealt with it, mostly racing upfront and avoiding the clumps of soggy turf thrown into their faces. Virtually everything bar those winners simply couldn’t cope and finished legless. To think you can properly adjust handicaps in such circumstances is a bit of a stretch, except maybe for a race run in the same conditions (as Ian suggests). There’s no doubt that Tutti Quanti showed up extremely well, but nothing else in the race did. He may have improved by that much in a couple of months, but I’ll need to see it before he carries any of my money.
 
barjon said:
I’ve littered the board stressing the dire going. I can’t speak for the last two races since gone by then, but the winners dealt with it, mostly racing upfront and avoiding the clumps of soggy turf thrown into their faces. Virtually everything bar those winners simply couldn’t cope and finished legless. To think you can properly adjust handicaps in such circumstances is a bit of a stretch, except maybe for a race run in the same conditions (as Ian suggests). There’s no doubt that Tutti Quanti showed up extremely well, but nothing else in the race did. He may have improved by that much in a couple of months, but I’ll need to see it before he carries any of my money.
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I totally get how extreme the conditions were and how the form is open to question. I’m out and about at the moment and am very slow texting via my phone so I’ll reply at more length later on.

In the meantime perhaps if anyone has a paper copy of Saturday!s RP they could check the section - can’t remember what it s called - that shows ticks for positives. I’ll be surprised if at least half a dozen didn’t have a double tick for their proven ability in heavy ground.
 
It was - it didn't stop raining and the ground was deteriorating all the time, so a literal comparison is misleading, but Sober Glory was nearly three seconds quicker carrying only 2lb less.

I couldn't begin to care who Racing Post Data was handing out ticks to like confetti - you only had to watch the race to see most of the field hated the ground.
 
So people are saying only TQ acted in the ground when others were already proven in it?

How likely is that?

I think TQ was simply too fast for them. Horses who have proved heavy ground holds no issues for them just couldn’t go with him.

Better ground against better horses will certainly be a totally different test but what if TQ actually prefers better ground himself?
 
Ian_Davies said:
you only had to watch the race to see most of the field hated the ground.
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I would also say that anyone who thinks all ground described as "Heavy" is identical in all instances is barely scratching the surface.

I have three shades of Heavy - Heavy, Very Heavy and Extremely Heavy - in my analysis methodology.

It looked like one horse who relished the conditions battering a bunch of horses who mostly didn't.

Six horses pulling up in a supposedly-competitive 2m handicap hurdle of fairly decent quality tells you all you need to know about the ground.

The chances of the winner being able to do that to opponents on better ground are pretty remote in my book and I doubt if the horse will even be supplemented unless it looks like being equally desperate ground at Cheltenham.
 

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