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UK AW Track Bets Today 11/02/2026 - Betting Tips & Information, Race & Runner Analysis

D

davewatts50

Amateur Rider
Joined
Feb 2, 2026
Messages
63
Location
England
Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Southwell afternoon meeting. There may be more to follow from Kempton this evening.

Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW


Southwell 14:44 - Always Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Handicap (0-60) (6) 4yo+

Dream Illusion
She’s an Improving 4 year old filly who is a distance winner. She who last ran 11 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 6 over 8 furlongs, finishing 1st winning by 0.30 lengths in a strong run race.

She’s running in the same class of race and over the same distance. Her highest winning mark is 62 and she runs off 60 today.

Mercurious Power
He’s an in form 8 year old gelding who’s a course and distance winner. I feel he’s well handicapped today. His highest winning mark is 75 and he is 60 today.

He last won 530 days ago and has had 14 races since. He last ran 11 days ago at Newcastle finishing 3rd to Dream Illusion in what was a strong race. The connections obviously feel they now have a chance of reversing that result. in a Class 6 over 8 furlongs, finishing 3/12 and beaten by 0.80 lengths.

My bets in this race are as follows (note I backed all selections last night so prices may well differ)

Dream Illusion EW bet @ 6.5

Mercurious Power EW bet @ 7



Southwell 16:14 - Midnite, Building The Future Of Betting Handicap (0-75) (5) 4yo+


State of Madness is an improving 5 year old gelding. He’s a distance winner and proven to be competitive. He last won 71 days ago and has had 2 races since.

He last ran 21 days ago at Kempton in a Class 5 over 6 furlongs, he finished a good third 3 beaten by 0.70 lengths. Today, he’s running in the same class and over the same distance.

His highest winning mark is 68 and today he runs off 73. I feel with a little bit of improvement he’s capable of winning this race.

Em Four is an Improving 4 year old gelding. He’s a distance winner who I believe is well handicapped. He’s last won 40 days ago and has had 3 races since. He last ran 12 days ago at Wolverhampton in a Class 5 over 6 furlongs, he finished 7th beaten by 3.95 lengths. I’ve excused that run for various reasons. My basis for his selection today was his performance at Kempton on 21/1/26 where he finished 2nd in a strong race.

His highest winning mark is 73 in this type of race and he runs off 73 today. Jamie Osbourne horse was placed in this race last year.


My bets in this race are as follows;

Em Four EW bet @ 10

State of Madness Win bet @ 4.5



Southwell 16:44. - Win £250,000 With BetMGM's Golden Goals Handicap (0-75) (5) 3yo


HENRIETTE RONNER. She’s an Unexposed 3 year old filly who’s a distance winner. She has proven she has the capability to be competitive in this race today.

She last ran 11 days ago at Newcastle winning in a Class 6 over 6 furlongs by 2.50 lengths. That race looks to be fairly strong based on the RaceIQ metrics.

Today, she is up in class but over the same distance. Her highest winning mark is 58 in and she is off 66 today. She needs to improve but she is well capable.

My bets in this race are as follows:

Henriette Ronner EW @ 10
 
Glad to see you're giving this a go in blog format Dave. It's a fairly bold thing to do is put it all down in plain sight, no smoke and mirrors just plain bets and results. There can be no bullshit that way.

For me it'll be nice to see someone who knows how to use speed ratings and sectionals and apply them properly to betting strut their stuff on TH. Having said that I think Reet is a speed ratings based punter and he's probably as good as anyone on here along with Ian who also would have a good understanding of it all probably better that most, not that he'd let on. Years back speed ratings were properly frowned upon on here so much so that one of the masters of the dark arts posted on Talking horses for years but stuck to the political threads and other sports threads. He never posted about his horse race betting on the site as he reffered to it as casting pearls before swine. For me all the best punters I've ever known have had a speed ratings background or at the very least a good understanding of that and all that goes with it the standards, variance figures etc etc. That said most have had to adapt from the early days as speed ratings and sectionals are widely published and freely available now.

You said you gave up the blog before for various reasons but said something about online abuse. When you're doing well, usually some people try and tear you down and you bump into a bit of hate but it never comes from people doing better than you. So hopefully you won't get too much of that on here, Giggsy gets the odd troll but pays them no mind. So best of luck with it and I'm sure the vast majority will appreciate your efforts and your winners greatly.

Just lastly whilst on the subject of the old speed rating guys is anyone off the board still in touch with EC1/ Alan ? I tried to E-mail him over Chistmas and got nothing back and he hasn't nipped in for a while was just wondering if anyone knows if he's ok.
 
I may have bored you all with this before, but I first got interested in time analysis circa 1977.

At that time a guy called Dave Edwards was "Split Second" at The Sporting Chronicle and Ken Hussey either preceded, succeeded or ran in parallel with him (I forget precisely which) on the weekly Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book.

The title and times got national exposure on World Of Sport in 1978 when a punter won over £90,000 for a tiny stake on the ITV7 and in an interview the following Saturday said to Dickie Davies speed figures were the basis for his selections.

At university (1981-1984) I started to compile my own numbers.

The Edwards/Hussey ones were often wildly different from the OR and were based on a "guess up" of the going allowance expressed in fractions of a second per furlong.

Post uni, whereas I went to London to work initially for Raceform, my school and college friend Chris Wright joined Timeform and became Phil Bull's assistant doing their computer time figures.

Chris said the going allowance method was Stone Age compared to what Bull did which used the actual Timeform ratings as a base and allowed for various factors which I won't list here.

Chris's feedback and insight working with Bull improved my approach a lot,

Since then sectional times have entered the mix, but a lot of the sound overall time principles remain, even though there's more than one way for a horse to record an overall time.

Time is but one factor - doesn't help much if today's not the day and your horse is never put in the race, for example - and I'd say you don't get the extreme value you did 40 years ago when I can remember getting 12/1 about horses with credentials that would probably make them 9/4 today.

But it's still well worth studying and there are plenty of occasions when the numbers say a horse has a chance, the market gets it into its head the horse "isn't wanted," it drifts like a barge and goes and wins anyway.

Google "Man With Time On His Side," "Chris Wright," "The Independent" and "Ian Davies" and you'll find a feature I wrote on Chris and the subject donkeys years ago.

Alternatively, just follow this link: Man with time on his side
 
Last edited:
Ian_Davies said:
I may have bored you all with this before, but I first got interested in time analysis circa 1977.

At that time a guy called Dave Edwards was "Split Second" at The Sporting Chronicle and Ken Hussey either preceded, succeeded or ran in parallel with him on the weekly Sporting Chronicle Handicap.

The title and times got national exposure on World Of Sport in 1978 when a punter won over £90,000 for a tiny stake on the ITV7 and said to Dickie Davies speed figures were the basis for his selections.

At university (1981-1984) I started to compile my own numbers.

The Edwards/Hussey ones were often wildly different from the OR and were based on a "guess up" of the going allowance expressed in fractions of a second per furlong.

Post uni, whereas I went to London to work initially for Raceform, my school and college friend Chris Wright joined Timeform and became Phil Bull's assistant doing their computer time figures.

Chris said the going allowance method was Stone Age compared to what Bull did which used the actual Timeform ratings as a base and allowed for various factors which I won't list here.

Chris's feedback and insight working with Bull improved my approach a lot,

Since then sectional times have entered the mix, but a lot of the sound overall time principles remain, even though there's more than one way for a horse to record an overall time.

Time is but one factor - doesn't help much if today's not the day and your horse is never put in the race, for example - and I'd say you don't get the extreme value you did 40 years ago when I can remember getting 12/1 about horses with credentials that would probably make them 9/4 today.

But it's still well worth studying and there are plenty of occasions when the numbers say a horse has a chance, the market gets it into its head the horse "isn't wanted," it drifts like a barge and goes and wins anyway.

Google "Man With Time On His Side," "Chris Wright," "The Independent" and "Ian Davies" and you'll find a feature I wrote on Chris and the subject donkeys years ago.

Alternatively, just follow this link: Man with time on his side
Click to expand...
Thanks Ian, I’m going to have read as it sounds right up my street.
 
Danny said:
Glad to see you're giving this a go in blog format Dave. It's a fairly bold thing to do is put it all down in plain sight, no smoke and mirrors just plain bets and results. There can be no bullshit that way.

For me it'll be nice to see someone who knows how to use speed ratings and sectionals and apply them properly to betting strut their stuff on TH. Having said that I think Reet is a speed ratings based punter and he's probably as good as anyone on here along with Ian who also would have a good understanding of it all probably better that most, not that he'd let on. Years back speed ratings were properly frowned upon on here so much so that one of the masters of the dark arts posted on Talking horses for years but stuck to the political threads and other sports threads. He never posted about his horse race betting on the site as he reffered to it as casting pearls before swine. For me all the best punters I've ever known have had a speed ratings background or at the very least a good understanding of that and all that goes with it the standards, variance figures etc etc. That said most have had to adapt from the early days as speed ratings and sectionals are widely published and freely available now.

You said you gave up the blog before for various reasons but said something about online abuse. When you're doing well, usually some people try and tear you down and you bump into a bit of hate but it never comes from people doing better than you. So hopefully you won't get too much of that on here, Giggsy gets the odd troll but pays them no mind. So best of luck with it and I'm sure the vast majority will appreciate your efforts and your winners greatly.

Just lastly whilst on the subject of the old speed rating guys is anyone off the board still in touch with EC1/ Alan ? I tried to E-mail him over Chistmas and got nothing back and he hasn't nipped in for a while was just wondering if anyone knows if he's ok.
Click to expand...
Much appreciated Danny, I will continue to try and highlight some winners. If I post it I’ve backed it.
 

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