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The 2026 Longshot Thread

Schweppes - Poet Laureate 50/1

Part sickness insurance (since I haven't studied the form) because I was on it last time when it bombed and part because I hugely respect Chris Gordon generally and because of his record in this race.

I'm hoping I might get an hour or two on Thursday to check the final decs. It would be just my luck if it came out but he did have three before yesterday's dec stage so I'm hoping the fact that this one is still in will prove a statement of intent to run.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Schweppes - Poet Laureate 50/1

Part sickness insurance (since I haven't studied the form) because I was on it last time when it bombed and part because I hugely respect Chris Gordon generally and because of his record in this race.

I'm hoping I might get an hour or two on Thursday to check the final decs. It would be just my luck if it came out but he did have three before yesterday's dec stage so I'm hoping the fact that this one is still in will prove a statement of intent to run.
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He's entered at Warwick on Saturday too, with Freddie Gordon down to ride. You never know though, good luck.
 
Poet Laureate out to 80/1 in places so possibly not intended to run.

I can't see soft ground being too much of an issue for it so maybe some other reason. Then again, I don't think the stable's winner tend to attract much attention in the markets.
 
Chris Gordon certainly knew what he was doing with Aucanrisque. I believe he thinks Poet Laureate would be up to it, but suspect he didn't think he'd make the cut this year. Now he has, seems certain to line up (assuming ground deemed suitable).

The Wincanton race suggests ground shouldn't be a problem, though likely this will be a different type of soft. I would imagine Windsor dented confidence, but maybe that was a deliberate 'tick-over' run.

Can see it. Needed something potentially worthwhile at a backable price, so thanks DO. The 3-1 winner (maybe 5/2) tomorrow just doesn't do it for me :)
 
I know sweet FA about all-weather racing or the peculiarities of Newcastle, but I'm as giddy as a schoolgirl getting ready for tonight's televised party, and I have decided to take a twirl with Mr Lightside at 20/1 in the 19:00.

If his two year old efforts were a sign of promise, rather than mere precocity, then he has dropped to a very dangerous mark. His best effort last season was first time out. And his trainer is capable of preparing a 5f winner after a break, judging on recent evidence.

Will the handicapper catch his fall? We'll find out after the break.
 
Generous1991 said:
I know sweet FA about all-weather racing or the peculiarities of Newcastle, but I'm as giddy as a schoolgirl getting ready for tonight's televised party, and I have decided to take a twirl with Mr Lightside at 20/1 in the 19:00.

If his two year old efforts were a sign of promise, rather than mere precocity, then he has dropped to a very dangerous mark. His best effort last season was first time out. And his trainer is capable of preparing a 5f winner after a break, judging on recent evidence.

Will the handicapper catch his fall? We'll find out after the break.
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The only thing accurate about that was the first line.
 
Tomorrow, Kingwell Hurdle - Intellotto has been cut to 40/1, a price I’ve taken. I now see that it has shortened in quite a few places and is more generally 33/1. Unfortunately it is win-only. I’ve backed it because the ground at Wincanton is unusually heavy and he is the only one with form in proper Irish heavy ground. The others have won in ‘soft’ but race times suggest they were more like good-to-soft. I thought it was worth a pop at the price anyway. Alexei is obviously the one to beat but what if a) it doesn’t like the ground or b) it is only prepping for the festival? This is Intellotto’s first run for its new owners and trainer but it probably wouldn’t be 40/1 if it was still with Souede, Munir and Joseph O’Brien.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Tomorrow, Kingwell Hurdle - Intellotto has been cut to 40/1, a price I’ve taken. I now see that it has shortened in quite a few places and is more generally 33/1. Unfortunately it is win-only. I’ve backed it because the ground at Wincanton is unusually heavy and he is the only one with form in proper Irish heavy ground. The others have won in ‘soft’ but race times suggest they were more like good-to-soft. I thought it was worth a pop at the price anyway. Alexei is obviously the one to beat but what if a) it doesn’t like the ground or b) it is only prepping for the festival? This is Intellotto’s first run for its new owners and trainer but it probably wouldn’t be 40/1 if it was still with Souede, Munir and Joseph O’Brien.
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Just on the official ratings ( 140 to 133 ) it's a puzzle to work out why Intellotto is five times the price of Secret Squirrel. He receives weight from both Alexei and Rubaud which brings him to within three or four pounds of those if they all run up to their best. His jockey cannot claim his seven pounds allowance in this race.
The place part of the each-way bet could be reallocated to straight forecasts with Intellotto finishing second.
 
Intellotto has gone for a long walk in the market again. Looks like they're using the shoes normally reserved for the milk round.
 
I've had a small bet on Majolique for the Triumph at 43/1 (machine). She has had a run on the flat in France and did well to beat an Aga Khan filly who has since gone on to place in a Grade 1.

Owned by Kenneth Alexander and under the eye of WPM. Makes her hurdling debut at Naas on Sunday, currently 5/6f. Now that there is no Narciso Has it's a much more open race, so I don't think its the worst bet in the world.
 
mellows45 said:
I've had a small bet on Majolique for the Triumph at 43/1 (machine). She has had a run on the flat in France and did well to beat an Aga Khan filly who has since gone on to place in a Grade 1.

Owned by Kenneth Alexander and under the eye of WPM. Makes her hurdling debut at Naas on Sunday, currently 5/6f. Now that there is no Narciso Has it's a much more open race, so I don't think its the worst bet in the world.
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Mullins now has doubts about if he'll get her ready in time for Cheltenham. Disappointing but worth the risk at those prices.

Definitely one to keep an eye on for Aintree. From the same owner as Murcia so she could follow in her footsteps
 
In tomorrow's [brilliant] Grimthorpe, I've taken 25/1 Moroder. I wanted to back it yesterday but when I checked it wasn't priced up at oddschecker and then I was called away for the rest of the day. I've no idea what it opened at but I see it is blue in a few places, which is no surprise as it has run in the race twice and won both times and, according to the Weekender card the trainer is 6-8 in races of this type at this track in the last ten years so I imagine we can ignore all the disappointing runs in between the wins.
 

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