My "Dark Horses" to watch.

Q

Quixall Crossett

Amateur Rider
Joined
Apr 29, 2024
Messages
178
Location
Ings Farm
As i go thru the racing each day, a horse or two always jump off the page at me and scream "future gamble". The hard part is knowing when connections have in mind but keeping a close eye on them pays dividends. As i said on a different thread the other day, sometimes i time them right and other times they just laugh at me and win when i'm not on. It happens but the next one soon comes along.
The one i am going to put up now is trained by someone who did me a very good turn at Market Rasen last August with a horse i had been watching and this time i got it right when i/we were on at 16/1 and it ended up winning at 11/2. The trainer is Daragh Bourke and the horse was Game Beaaa. That mare is actually entered at Perth on Thursday and i will look to see if she runs.
Bourke is a trainer who i watch closely. He and his owners like a touch and i think its only a matter of time before they strike with this one. And this horse has a very, very colourful history.
The animal in question is called I Doubt That. It started life in Ireland trained by Andy Lee and was well beaten in all three runs for him at odds of 40/1, 150/1 and 250/1.
The horse then moved to Kieran Purcell and had three runs over hurdles for him and was well beaten every time. He went off at 250/1, 300/1 and 33/1 on those three starts.
He then moved over to this side of the pond and joined Jimmy Fox and lo and behold, he won on the AW on his very first outing for him and was gambled on down to 11/4 fav. What a transformation ! :)
Then came the bad news. Due to an irregularity in the ownership details, the horse was disqualified. He then had three more runs for Fox and won again at Kempton in between getting beat twice at Lingfield. (Note to self - Possibly better going right handed :))
Some of you are thinking that this is looking a bit shady. :LOL: I would never suggest such a thing.
But as Jimmy Cricket used to say, "come here, theres more"
He then moved to Daragh Bourke and was tailed on his first start over hurdles for him and pulled up in the other. They were at odds of 66/1 and 125/1. He was then off the course for nearly a year before finishing a fairly close up sixth at Newcastle in February beaten only 6L. He was then off the track until last week when he finished last of five at Ayr over a totally inadequate ten furlongs ridden by that fine gentleman, Paul Mulrennan. :rolleyes:
And now the horse runs in the last at Perth on Wednesday night (note - going right handed) and over an ideal looking trip of two and a half miles.

Will it win ???? -- I havent got a friggin clue. Will i back it ???? I very much doubt it unless the fraudsters want to go a silly double figure price. Its possible that i might miss the boat with this one but it was good fun going thru it all and at least it has kept you all entertained for ten minutes. :LOL:
 
walsworth said:
Nice story but too many "ifs and buts" for my liking.
Click to expand...
:) With these type of horses, the ones that are "hidden away" down the field for the majority of their runs and/or dont run on their merits every time, there will always be ifs and buts. But then again, there are ifs and buts about every single horse running in every single race every single day.
But the good news is - we dont have to back them. We dont hav to have a bet today. We dont have to have a bet tomorrow. We dont have to have a bet for the rest of this month. So we dont have to back it.
I probably wont. But i'm still gonna watch what price the fraudsters guess at.
 
It's interesting. I tend to look at multiple trainer jumps as a negative. ie x couldn't find the key, nor could y, so ends up with z. Who probably similarly can't. But I never really gave much thought to there being rare cases where it's all part of a game. Equally, there will obviously be cases where a specific trainer sees something in the horse others can't. Or just that x has realised a horse won't be winning the types of races he wants to win, so lets it go to someone who will play at the right level. Happens all the time with x to y moves, especially at the lower levels .

Obviously not so much with x to y to z and clearly you have to know the likely candidates to have any chance of getting in on the game. Thx for the heads up, QC.
 
chaumi said:
It's interesting. I tend to look at multiple trainer jumps as a negative. ie x couldn't find the key, nor could y, so ends up with z. Who probably similarly can't. But I never really gave much thought to there being rare cases where it's all part of a game. Equally, there will obviously be cases where a specific trainer sees something in the horse others can't. Or just that x has realised a horse won't be winning the types of races he wants to win, so lets it go to someone who will play at the right level. Happens all the time with x to y moves, especially at the lower levels .

Obviously not so much with x to y to z and clearly you have to know the likely candidates to have any chance of getting in on the game. Thx for the heads up, QC.
Click to expand...
I always look at who sends what to who. :)
I'm always on the look out for a touch, a gamble, a plot. I love delving into it all and as Hannibal from the A Team used to say, "I love it when a plan comes together". :)

For instance, Chris Gordon get a lot of horses from Paul Nicholls. The ones that are just honest handicappers and not up to the level that Nicholls wants. And Gordon does very well with them and is a very good trainer. But they will win races in time but will not be readied for a touch. So they dont really interest me.
But then of course, JP sends a lot of horses from Jonjo to Ben Haslam and we know exactly how that is going to work and end up. That is more my thing.

But of course there are a few more like that. :)
 
As I was looking at the nags racing today a horse called Suivez Moi jumped out at me which is having its first race today. I recall over 30 years ago a Suivez Moi romping home at a decent price for me while attending Catterick races. I was with work people who knew nothing of racing and I managed to scoop them some winnings too on it. Got me wondering. What is the record length of time between a horse being named after a namesake in racing?
About to run now
 
geordiecolin said:
As I was looking at the nags racing today a horse called Suivez Moi jumped out at me which is having its first race today. I recall over 30 years ago a Suivez Moi romping home at a decent price for me while attending Catterick races. I was with work people who knew nothing of racing and I managed to scoop them some winnings too on it. Got me wondering. What is the record length of time between a horse being named after a namesake in racing?
About to run now
Click to expand...
Won at Catterick back in 1987 for Conrad Allan.
 
Quixall Crossett said:
As i go thru the racing each day, a horse or two always jump off the page at me and scream "future gamble". The hard part is knowing when connections have in mind but keeping a close eye on them pays dividends. As i said on a different thread the other day, sometimes i time them right and other times they just laugh at me and win when i'm not on. It happens but the next one soon comes along.
The one i am going to put up now is trained by someone who did me a very good turn at Market Rasen last August with a horse i had been watching and this time i got it right when i/we were on at 16/1 and it ended up winning at 11/2. The trainer is Daragh Bourke and the horse was Game Beaaa. That mare is actually entered at Perth on Thursday and i will look to see if she runs.
Bourke is a trainer who i watch closely. He and his owners like a touch and i think its only a matter of time before they strike with this one. And this horse has a very, very colourful history.
The animal in question is called I Doubt That. It started life in Ireland trained by Andy Lee and was well beaten in all three runs for him at odds of 40/1, 150/1 and 250/1.
The horse then moved to Kieran Purcell and had three runs over hurdles for him and was well beaten every time. He went off at 250/1, 300/1 and 33/1 on those three starts.
He then moved over to this side of the pond and joined Jimmy Fox and lo and behold, he won on the AW on his very first outing for him and was gambled on down to 11/4 fav. What a transformation ! :)
Then came the bad news. Due to an irregularity in the ownership details, the horse was disqualified. He then had three more runs for Fox and won again at Kempton in between getting beat twice at Lingfield. (Note to self - Possibly better going right handed :))
Some of you are thinking that this is looking a bit shady. :LOL: I would never suggest such a thing.
But as Jimmy Cricket used to say, "come here, theres more"
He then moved to Daragh Bourke and was tailed on his first start over hurdles for him and pulled up in the other. They were at odds of 66/1 and 125/1. He was then off the course for nearly a year before finishing a fairly close up sixth at Newcastle in February beaten only 6L. He was then off the track until last week when he finished last of five at Ayr over a totally inadequate ten furlongs ridden by that fine gentleman, Paul Mulrennan. :rolleyes:
And now the horse runs in the last at Perth on Wednesday night (note - going right handed) and over an ideal looking trip of two and a half miles.

Will it win ???? -- I havent got a friggin clue. Will i back it ???? I very much doubt it unless the fraudsters want to go a silly double figure price. Its possible that i might miss the boat with this one but it was good fun going thru it all and at least it has kept you all entertained for ten minutes. :LOL:
Click to expand...
So, opens at 12/1 and is cut to 15/2 within 2 minutes.

Not for me.

Have a good night all.
 
Quixall Crossett said:
So, opens at 12/1 and is cut to 15/2 within 2 minutes.

Not for me.

Have a good night all.
Click to expand...
Its on the drift now and out to 14/1 with one fraudster as i type. But with a stable like this, it doesnt mean anything at this moment in time. They could just be biding their time before diving in. Only time will tell.

No bet for me though. I thought there were four or five with a chance but I Doubt That was the "dark" one.

Have a good day all.
 
A handful stood out to me, too. I would imagine one or two of them are on your list, QC.

Kinneston's Not In Kansas - too obvious

Sandy's March Wind is unexposed - has a bit of bumper form with Ruth Jefferson's Lunar View (who could turn out to be a little useful). But the bookies look to have noted that and March is unbackable in the context of this race.

Nicky's Thewayyouare is similarly unexposed and Susan Corbett's runner, too. Both could be OK.

R Mike Smith's River Ayr stood out to me on first glance through - but 6-1 you're having a laugh, bookies

Ian Duncan winners are rare as rocking horse xyz. But, from an outsider perspective, his Fame and Glory runner Fame Valley might have something under the hood. Was definitely something there late 21 early 22, but evidence suggests there was a two-year injury break and no one'll know (except Ian, maybe) whether he still has anything at 9. This distance should suit, though. Ian had a highly unexpected 50-1 bumper runner-up a few days back (may be worth watching that one for a long-distance hurdle sometime in the next three years, it was a useful-looking bumper on paper beforehand and his Highland Fashion had some potentially nice types behind).

One or more of these ought to be in the frame. But I'd definitely agree, not a race to be backing anything in. Maybe a penny on the Fame and Glory for fun - if going off an awful lot bigger than looks likely right now.
 
chaumi said:
A handful stood out to me, too. I would imagine one or two of them are on your list, QC.

Kinneston's Not In Kansas - too obvious

Sandy's March Wind is unexposed - has a bit of bumper form with Ruth Jefferson's Lunar View (who could turn out to be a little useful). But the bookies look to have noted that and March is unbackable in the context of this race.

Nicky's Thewayyouare is similarly unexposed and Susan Corbett's runner, too. Both could be OK.

R Mike Smith's River Ayr stood out to me on first glance through - but 6-1 you're having a laugh, bookies

Ian Duncan winners are rare as rocking horse xyz. But, from an outsider perspective, his Fame and Glory runner Fame Valley might have something under the hood. Was definitely something there late 21 early 22, but evidence suggests there was a two-year injury break and no one'll know (except Ian, maybe) whether he still has anything at 9. This distance should suit, though. Ian had a highly unexpected 50-1 bumper runner-up a few days back (may be worth watching that one for a long-distance hurdle sometime in the next three years, it was a useful-looking bumper on paper beforehand and his Highland Fashion had some potentially nice types behind).

One or more of these ought to be in the frame. But I'd definitely agree, not a race to be backing anything in. Maybe a penny on the Fame and Glory for fun - if going off an awful lot bigger than looks likely right now.
Click to expand...
Good stuff chaumi and thanks.
I see it is out to 20's now but i am in no way tempted. That could mean that today is not the day and it could also mean they are just waiting and waiting. I have a feeling it is the former but only time will tell. But my eyes will be glued to the horse when the race goes off.

River Ayr was one from my list. The step up in trip last time brought about some improvement and it was the sort of run i would have expected behind the odds on fav. This company looks a bit easier and the young kid on top, Ben Smith, has impressed me this year and he can claim the 10lbs this time round. This one wont be far away.
Bridgetjoans has an obvious chance and i also give a squeak to the Irish raider, Kilkee Royal. He didnt have much luck in running behind one of Ben Smiths winners (Follow Charlie) last time out and i thought he could go well.
And the Nicky Richards horse, The Best Way, should also improve for the step up in trip and this first run in a handicap might see him there or thereabouts.

Not a race to get involved in really and i was just looking at it from hoping to get a big opening price about I Doubt That and trading out shorter.
So no bet at all today for me but good luck to yourself today if you get involved. And that goes to all, especially if you bother with this race.
 
Well this one isnt a dark horse any more.
Every man and his dog know about it now.

Looks like a better showing was expected but to be fair, it wasnt really settling.
They will get their money back one day but probably not at the sort of price i play at.
 
walsworth said:
Well spotted, I'm impressed.
I should have had dabble on Betfair.
Click to expand...
Matched at 60 pre race mate. I saw it and tried to get money matched at 46 upwards but nobody was playing ball.
Plenty of money to be made that way.

Not to worry, there is always tomorrow. Well not for me actually :) but perhaps Saturdays decs will have a lurker.
 
Robski123 said:
Yep great beaaa In 2.50 at Perth tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Bourke actually has two in the race and they are both not without chance. But not enough to tempt me in the slightest to get involved.

Safe to say that he went for it last night with I Doubt That who looks the proverbial "job" horse. I have no doubt whatsoever that he will recoup his losses in the future. I only wish i knew the exact date . :LOL:

Have a good day all.
 
This really is a new way of thinking for me.

I subscribe to Horseracebase and I have been looking at races over the last couple of years where horses have been drastically shortened to see if I can identify betting yards.

Incidentally for those of you that use Excel, Horseracebase is the only place that I have found where the race cards can be easily copied into a spreadsheet.
 
Back
Top