I wouldn't want to put any of my racing comments on a bookies' site.
My "Dark Horses" to watch.
- Thread starter Quixall Crossett
- Start date
barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,811
I do keep saying NagMe which is run by the Press Association which presumably is why the alerts are out quick and early so the press can have the time to do their pieces. They alert, evening before, day of race and result and the alerts are for horse, jockey, trainer or owner. The biggest advantage is that it allows note after note with lots of space. Free, but you can make a voluntary payment if you wish. I haven’t found better. The only negative is that they do not alert initial entries.
Have you ever considered mate that a lot of horses shorten massively simply because most of the people putting up the opening prices don’t have a clue what they’re doing ?
walsworth
Journeyman
Odds compilers are not far out 90% of the time, particularly on exposed handicappers.Have you ever considered mate that a lot of horses shorten massively simply because most of the people putting up the opening prices don’t have a clue what they’re doing ?
The only thing that shortens most prices is sheer weight of money, but we are talking about massive price cuts and they will normally be caused through large bets from known shrewd punters.
I disagree massively with that. If you took a screenshot of every race card when the early prices came out and the looked at the same race at 10 30 the following morning, many, if not most, will have changed massively. which wouldn’t be the case if they were right 90% of the time.
There are about three large bookies that actually have odds compilers and everybody else either goes a point either side straight away ior waits to see what they change their prices to after taking the early bets and follows goes a point either side of the new price.
Not sure whether they even have actual people doing that or just have bots doing it.
If they were right 90
if they were right 90% of the time , there would be little difference between them first show, their mid morning odds and their odds just before the off .
Quixall Crossett
Amateur Rider
Spot on !
Bet365, Powers and Hills were the three and none of the others had the knowledge or bollocks to go up first. Hills dont do it as much as they used to and now it is either 365 or Powers who are left to lead the way. Bet365 are always stand out on a horse or two in a race and steadfastly just refuse to move it sometimes. It happens in a few races every day. I will give you an example from last night. In the Bangor 4.30 they opened 10/1 about On The Platform. Powers went 11/2 and then all the copy and pasters switched their bots on and copied the 11/2. That is some difference and most people would then expect 365 to cut their price. But no, they stood firm and as i type this at 6.58 they are still 10/1 and the others have moved their to 15/2.
That is more or less how it works every day. Powers publish their prices and the lemmings just copy them. The vast majority of firms havent got compilers. And if some have one or two people with a smidgin of a clue, they definitely dont have the bollocks to go up first. To put their heads above the parapet and have the utmost confidence in their prices and stand them. Those days have long gone. Their are firms out there who have people sat on their "trading desk" who wouldnt know if a certain horse in a race should be 11/10, 11/2 or 11/1 !!!!
The bots control the prices. The bots move the prices. The days of manual, human input are all but gone. And how much poorer is the betting world because of it.
It is embarrassing looking at the price history of some horses these days but it tells the story. You can look any morning at any race and you will see a horse that has changed price about 40 times in the early hours of the morning and gone something like 9/1 - 17/2 - 8/1 -17/2 - 9/1 - 17/2 - 9/1 - 17/2 - 9/1 etc etc etc. Madness and embarrassing.
A comment from an ex-colleague of mine summed it up a few years ago when i was over in Ireland at Navan races. I hadnt seen him for about 5 or 6 years and we chatted for a while and i told him i had recently been offered a job to get back into the game. And i told him that they may as well offered to set fire to my bollocks because the answer was a very quick NO !
He was still working in the game at the time and told me that i wouldnt get a job with his firm now. He said they do not take "racing" people. They dont bother with ex traders or ex compilers. They only take on maths graduates. That was the direction they were going and the only ones they were looking to employ. He added that it was a very different game than when we were working together. And that was about 5 or 6 years ago. And it is even worse now.
There are some very good odds compilers out there. Some very, very good ones. Unfortunately, none of them work for bookmakers. And thats why the fraudsters get picked off so easily with the ricks. And thats why many people have their accounts closed because they are beating SP all the time.
So whose fault is it ?
We all know who !!!!!!!!
I could go on but my porridge is getting cold
Have a good day all.
Quixall Crossett
Amateur Rider
The objective when going up with early prices is to be as close to SP as you possibly can be. But that is easier said than done. But with study and knowledge and experience etc, getting close with most is a job well done.
I just dont see that these days. The time and effort and attention to detail that went into it all back in the day is virtually non existent these days. The bots rule the prices. The bots track the exchange. The bots track other firms. The system tells the "traders" what bets to knock back and what bets to cut.
How boring and mind numbing is that ??!! I'd rather stack the shelves in Tesco ! (I have a mate who actually does and he loves it
)Quixall Crossett
Amateur Rider
And lets face it, the days of "real" bookmaking and "proper" bookmakers are long gone. I dont know why I, and many others, go on about it so much because it isnt gonna change. No matter how much we whinge. But then again, i do like a whinge.
Too many gimmicks, not enough "proper" betting. Too many stupid offers, not enough laying a decent bet. Even a half decent bet would do.
"Money back if your horse is beaten a short head", "money back if your horse falls at the last", "money back if your horse is left at the start", "money back if your horse voted Conservative at the recent elections".
But "Can i have a tenner on this 8/1 chance please ?" is met with "dont be so stupid, you can have 63p like everyone else".
No, i dont know why i bother either.
Too many gimmicks, not enough "proper" betting. Too many stupid offers, not enough laying a decent bet. Even a half decent bet would do.
"Money back if your horse is beaten a short head", "money back if your horse falls at the last", "money back if your horse is left at the start", "money back if your horse voted Conservative at the recent elections".
But "Can i have a tenner on this 8/1 chance please ?" is met with "dont be so stupid, you can have 63p like everyone else".
No, i dont know why i bother either.
Robicheaux
Amateur Rider
I don't know about " dark horse", but it's clear to me M+D Easterby have a very well handicapped horse in Carolus Magnus.
I backed him ew in the Cambridgeshire last season at 100/1. To my eyes he was a bit unlucky, as he got no sort of run. Had to be switched to the stands rail + flew up there to finish 9th, after been plumb last 2f out. He was only beaten 3 lengths.
He's 7lb lower now.
A couple of pipe openers this season. He was well backed fto at Newmarket + was a bit unlucky at York yesterday. Not given a great ride on either occasion.
I imagine another tilt at Newmarket in October may be the aim, but any of those big mile handicaps over the summer, on good to firm ground, then he would be sparking my interest.
I backed him ew in the Cambridgeshire last season at 100/1. To my eyes he was a bit unlucky, as he got no sort of run. Had to be switched to the stands rail + flew up there to finish 9th, after been plumb last 2f out. He was only beaten 3 lengths.
He's 7lb lower now.
A couple of pipe openers this season. He was well backed fto at Newmarket + was a bit unlucky at York yesterday. Not given a great ride on either occasion.
I imagine another tilt at Newmarket in October may be the aim, but any of those big mile handicaps over the summer, on good to firm ground, then he would be sparking my interest.
Quixall Crossett
Amateur Rider
Hello Robicheaux and good luck with that one. He looks quite well handicapped now and a trip of around a mile on decent ground looks his thing. I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that Spittin Mick has a plan for him but only he will know it. I doubt his son even knows
He keeps his cards very close to his chest and as i said on an earlier post, to me, he is just impossible to work out. And thats probably why he owns half of Yorkshire !
There were a number of trainers who used to have our private number thru to the trading desk back in the day and some of the lads used to follow certain ones in. I very rarely bothered although there was one trainer who i thought was a cut above the others when it came to punting.
But !!! If Mick Easterby had bet with us in those days, i would have followed him in every time.
Good luck today.
Quixall Crossett
Amateur Rider
I actually missed off the bit i came on for regarding this topic. Why dont we ever see headlines in the RP saying "Everyone can have a bet up to £50 today, no questions asked" with a firm, (or even £25 would do). In this day and age, it is not much to ask. But no, all we get is this ridiculous and embarrassing 50/1 Fury and 50/1 Usyk with one bunch and 60/1 the pair with another set of clowns.And lets face it, the days of "real" bookmaking and "proper" bookmakers are long gone. I dont know why I, and many others, go on about it so much because it isnt gonna change. No matter how much we whinge. But then again, i do like a whinge.
Too many gimmicks, not enough "proper" betting. Too many stupid offers, not enough laying a decent bet. Even a half decent bet would do.
"Money back if your horse is beaten a short head", "money back if your horse falls at the last", "money back if your horse is left at the start", "money back if your horse voted Conservative at the recent elections".
But "Can i have a tenner on this 8/1 chance please ?" is met with "dont be so stupid, you can have 63p like everyone else".
No, i dont know why i bother either.
Quixall Crossett
Amateur Rider
I bet they wish they had only gone 11/2 as wellSpot on !
Bet365, Powers and Hills were the three and none of the others had the knowledge or bollocks to go up first. Hills dont do it as much as they used to and now it is either 365 or Powers who are left to lead the way. Bet365 are always stand out on a horse or two in a race and steadfastly just refuse to move it sometimes. It happens in a few races every day. I will give you an example from last night. In the Bangor 4.30 they opened 10/1 about On The Platform. Powers went 11/2 and then all the copy and pasters switched their bots on and copied the 11/2. That is some difference and most people would then expect 365 to cut their price. But no, they stood firm and as i type this at 6.58 they are still 10/1 and the others have moved their to 15/2.
That is more or less how it works every day. Powers publish their prices and the lemmings just copy them. The vast majority of firms havent got compilers. And if some have one or two people with a smidgin of a clue, they definitely dont have the bollocks to go up first. To put their heads above the parapet and have the utmost confidence in their prices and stand them. Those days have long gone. Their are firms out there who have people sat on their "trading desk" who wouldnt know if a certain horse in a race should be 11/10, 11/2 or 11/1 !!!!
The bots control the prices. The bots move the prices. The days of manual, human input are all but gone. And how much poorer is the betting world because of it.
It is embarrassing looking at the price history of some horses these days but it tells the story. You can look any morning at any race and you will see a horse that has changed price about 40 times in the early hours of the morning and gone something like 9/1 - 17/2 - 8/1 -17/2 - 9/1 - 17/2 - 9/1 - 17/2 - 9/1 etc etc etc. Madness and embarrassing.
A comment from an ex-colleague of mine summed it up a few years ago when i was over in Ireland at Navan races. I hadnt seen him for about 5 or 6 years and we chatted for a while and i told him i had recently been offered a job to get back into the game. And i told him that they may as well offered to set fire to my bollocks because the answer was a very quick NO !
He was still working in the game at the time and told me that i wouldnt get a job with his firm now. He said they do not take "racing" people. They dont bother with ex traders or ex compilers. They only take on maths graduates. That was the direction they were going and the only ones they were looking to employ. He added that it was a very different game than when we were working together. And that was about 5 or 6 years ago. And it is even worse now.
There are some very good odds compilers out there. Some very, very good ones. Unfortunately, none of them work for bookmakers. And thats why the fraudsters get picked off so easily with the ricks. And thats why many people have their accounts closed because they are beating SP all the time.
So whose fault is it ?
We all know who !!!!!!!!
I could go on but my porridge is getting cold
Have a good day all.
Quixall Crossett
Amateur Rider
I remember it mate and i replied. But this sort of thing happens many, many times a day, every day. And owners, who were always given preferential treatment back in the day, are mainly just treated like the rest of us. Like dirt !
Owners were always flagged up back in my day and would nearly always get the bet they wanted and would also get a back show and where applicable, they would get the fractions. And for the simple reason that if we didnt have owners, we didnt have a sport !!!
But the fraudsters these days are not real bookmakers so the same rules and principles dont apply. And you could walk into most trading rooms these days and probably 99.99% of betting shops and the staff in there wouldnt know what the fractions were.
Sad and dismal times.
p.s. The last person to ask me for the fractions was Sir Peter O'Sullevan. And of course he got them.
walsworth
Journeyman
I'm not sure if this is correct or not but I was told many years ago that the reason for odds like 100/8, 100/30 etc. was because there were 8 half crowns to the pound.
Quixall Crossett
Amateur Rider
Never heard that one before mate. It just made it easier if you were betting to win a hundred or two hundred or fifty or whatever. And the story goes that it was an "earner" for the runner when his bookie sent him to have something back at 14/1 elsewhere and he would ask for 100/7. That was his beer money for the night