Is French form under-rated?

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
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I have always respected RPRs (which is why I often quote them) because I know there's a lot of work goes into compiling them but I'm often wary of them where French racing is concerned. I've often found they are lower than my own figures on the few occasions I dig a bit into French form.

I don't really have access to Timeform ratings so can't compare them other than knowing Timeform are [ball-park] 5lbs higher than my own in non-handicaps.

At the big Ascot meeting just past, I was noting French RPRs for their runners here and saw then that they seemed conservative.

I've just checked the Jean-Prat run today.

Going into the race these were the adjusted RPRs:

Kikkuli (trained in the UK) 125
Romantic Style (UK) 125
Iberian (UK) 123
Devil's Point (UK) 122
Kathmandu (UK) 121
Monteille (Fr) 121
Beauvatier (Fr) 120
Vespertilio (Ire) 120
Havana Cigar (Fr) 118
Sajir (Fr) 117
Puchkine (Fr) 114
Zandy (Fr) 105

And this was the finishing order:

Puchkine (Fr) 114
Havana Cigar (Fr) 118
Beauvatier (Fr) 120
Sajir (Fr) 117
Kathmandu (UK) 121
Kikkuli (UK) 125
Vespertilio (Ire) 120
Devil's Point (UK) 122
Zandy (Fr) 105
Monteille (Fr) 121
Iberian (UK) 123
Romantic Style (UK) 125

Kathmundu had split Rouhiya and Vespertilio in the Pouliches last time out so those two have run close to that form yet were beaten 3.5L and more here. Kikkuli may not have been over a big run in the Jersey a couple of weeks ago but it looks like the other French form might be under-rated.

Could this be why O'Meara gets a lot of joy buying in horses from below the top levels in France?

Just curious...
 
The thing about RPRs - and all ratings in the public domain - is everyone can see them so there's often zero value to be had using them.

I recommend finding a niche area - be it French Flat, French Jumping, whatever, and specialising with a manageable workload and continuing with doing your own.

Sometimes you'll be wrong - your top rated will be a mile behind on RPR and get beaten out of sight - but sometimes you will be right and when you are it's often at long odds.
 
I do my own because I learned not to trust others' when I was in my early twenties.

I'm really only interested in the big races on TV so that would be my niche area.

I don't mind putting them on here once my money is on :)
 
DO, I share your suspicion.

Here is a list of the top European horses in the International Classification Ratings (ICR) for the current year up to 9th of June. The first figure shown for each horse is their ICR, the second is their current official rating and the final figure is their best RPR in the year to date.

City Of Troy IRE 123 124 125
Notable Speech GB 121 122 123
White Birch IRE 121 121 125
Audience GB 120 120 121
Facteur Cheval FR 120 120 121
Look De Vega FR 120 120 120
Luxembourg IRE 120 120 124
Master Of The Seas GB 120 121 125

Obviously a much bigger sample would be needed to draw any solid conclusions, but the RPRs are notably higher for some GB and IRE horses in this short list compared to the official ratings.

And here's another sidelight. As well as the ICR ratings for individual horses, there is also an international ranking of races. In 2023 the highest rated 3yo race in the world was the Prix du Jockey Club, with a rating of 121.5 lbs. Next was the Travers Stakes in Saratoga, and in third place was the Epsom Derby, rated 117.25.

Despite being the higher-rated race, RPRs for Prix du Jockey Club winners are usually lower than for winners of the Derby. Here are the respective ratings for the last ten years:

2024City Of Troy [1]125120 Look De Vega
2023Auguste Rodin [10]124125 Ace Impact
2022Desert Crown [12]125125 Vadeni
2021Adayar [1]124121 St Mark's Basilica
2020Serpentine [12]121116 Mishriff
2019Anthony Van Dyck [7]119121 Sottsass
2018Masar [10]122115 Study Of Man
2017Wings Of Eagles [14]121117 Brametot
2016Harzand [9]124117 Almanzor
2015Golden Horn [8]127119 New Bay

In seven years out of ten the Derby winner is rated higher, and only twice (Ace Impact, Sottsass) did the winner of the French race get rated higher. The average difference in favour of the Derby winner over the ten year period is 4 lbs, even though the French race is rated 4 lbs higher.

I'm not saying this evidence is proof that RPRs are underrating French form but it does suggest there may be a case to answer.

And by the way, I wonder if there may be even greater discrepancies where French jumps form is concerned.
 
Good question..Another question is do they care...winning in the Uk seems pretty well unimportant to the French...the UK send more horses there than they do here...
 
Their prize money is generally so much better at every level.

It's the price we pay for NOT having a Tote monopoly and having the alternative choice of a betting exchange or bookmaker (IF we can get on - and IF when we've won we can then get paid!).
 
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