Trump vs Harris

A CNN flash poll of 600 registered voters shows 63% think Harris outperformed Trump. A very small sample size so that’s probably meaningless. We’ll need to wait a few days for anything meaningful

Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris may just win her the election
 
viking said:
A CNN flash poll of 600 registered voters shows 63% think Harris outperformed Trump. A very small sample size so that’s probably meaningless. We’ll need to wait a few days for anything meaningful

Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris may just win her the election
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The BBC made the observation that Taylor's fan base, young females are probably already in the Harris camp.
 
viking said:
A CNN flash poll of 600 registered voters shows 63% think Harris outperformed Trump. A very small sample size so that’s probably meaningless. We’ll need to wait a few days for anything meaningful

Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris may just win her the election
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Seemed to me to be 52:48
 
The startling revelation from Mr Trump that illegals are eating people`s cats and dogs must surely convince all right-minded folk that he`s the man to MAGA!!
 
Even said on TV that Kamala Harris was advocatung murdering live babies!

No shame ,no scruples - beats me how anyone gives him credibility.
 
I just watched a woman being arrested on Tiktok for killing and eating a cat thee.

Cat Stew is very popular in Haiti and they do eat dogs so it's not so hard to believe.

People are saying it's not rue but in reality they simply don't know they are just repeating what others are saying
 
viking said:
A CNN flash poll of 600 registered voters shows 63% think Harris outperformed Trump. A very small sample size so that’s probably meaningless. We’ll need to wait a few days for anything meaningful

Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris may just win her the election
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The problem Harris has is no one tuned in.....no doubt the Trump army would be glued to the screen but the debate only attracted 52 million
Biden V Trump attracted 73 million so maybe she's not got the support she thinks she has
 
Trump was terrible, veering between appearing to be a confused old man and a spoilt 5 year old who, when caught out in a lie enhances it with another one. However, I don't believe that, in itself, the debate changed many minds or voting intentions.
 
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archie said:
Trump was terrible, veering between appearing to be a confused old man and a spoilt 5 year old who, when caught out in a lie enhances it with another one. However, I don't believe that, in itself, the debate changed many minds or voting intentions.
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Good analysis.
 
I watched it all the way through and would agree a points win but a unanimous one and not on her questions but on his reactions and inane answers. Harris scored the first telling points by going across to shake Trump’s hand as it is my belief that he is such a misogynist that he thought that she would be frightened of him thus putting him on the back foot from the outset.
 
Gullible said:
I watched it all the way through and would agree a points win but a unanimous one and not on her questions but on his reactions and inane answers. Harris scored the first telling points by going across to shake Trump’s hand as it is my belief that he is such a misogynist that he thought that she would be frightened of him thus putting him on the back foot from the outset.
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As I see it -8weeks to election day -Trump avoids another debate at all costs and gets down to what he is Good at -negative campaigning.It will be like Hardy Eustace v Harchibald up the hill at Cheltenham.
 
Yeah, I watched enough. The bloke looked an amateur. He talks an awful lot of shite - that cannot be denied.

He is a terrible person. He is not worthy of the post of POTUS.
 
Len Madeiros said:
Yeah, I watched enough. The bloke looked an amateur. He talks an awful lot of shite - that cannot be denied.

He is a terrible person. He is not worthy of the post of POTUS.
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He most definitely is a terrible person but will Harris be any better -there is a strong chance that if elected she will feel the need to prove herself as tough as any man.
 
LUKE said:
As I see it -8weeks to election day -Trump avoids another debate at all costs and gets down to what he is Good at -negative campaigning.It will be like Hardy Eustace v Harchibald up the hill at Cheltenham.
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Or "get brexit done" (sorry)
 
11/10 Trump 1/1 Harris makes it very close As far as the debate goes Hillary won the debate much more convincingly than Harris but lost the election.

This is going to come down to 2 states Pennsylvania Winsconnsin and will decide the winner. Hence Harris,s 180 on fracking. Voters are slow to trust a turncoat so the people of PA are unlikely to risk voting for her.

Finding one state that could see Harris win is going to be very difficult for her
 
As Luke implies, if a week is a long time in politics, 8 weeks is an eternity. However, early (postal) voting will soon be under way so there is some point to keeping an eye on the polls and the odds. It would be correct that most Taylor Swift fans are likely to support the Democrats anyway but Harris has had trouble energising younger voters so the important part of the Swift message was to register to vote. Last time she made a similar request, over 300000 people followed the link from her post to the electoral registration site. That in itself is only a small percentage of the turn-out but several states will be decided by a few thousand votes so who knows, it might make a difference.

The odds changed dramatically after the debate but seemed to have steadied for now. Nationwide it's showing on Oddschecker as
1.95 Harris
2.06 Trump
which is a swivel from the pre-debate figures. However, it's still close enough to be considered even to all intents and purposes.

Likewise, in the main 6 swing states there have been small swings to the Democrats with this morning's prices for the favourites being;

Arizona 1.67 Rep.
Georgia 1.65 Rep.
Michigan 1.61 Dem.
Nevada 1.90 Dem.
Pennsylvania 1.92 Dem.
Wisconsin 1.63 Dem.

Going on the assumption that anything shorter than 1.7 is unlikely to be turned over and with Nevada only having a small number of college votes, we are back to it all being decided by Pennsylvania. I wonder how many Swifties there are in that state.
 
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I think your use of dramatically is way off the mark Archie. Both of them have been hovering around 4/5 and evens.

If one of them had gone to 4/7 ot 1/2 you could say that was dramstic but the bookies are not prepared to give the punters anything on either. A grand yesterday would have won you a grand today you can get 960 net or vice versa
 
The whole election revolves around 3 states. The bookies have no better idea than anybody else what the outcome will be. Hilary was a certainty. Brexit had no chance of succeeding. Corbyn was close to winning the election. Just a few times bookies got it wrong. If it comes down to independents in the swing states Harris wins. Only if many Democrats stay at home will trump win imho.
 
Tanlic said:
I think your use of dramatically is way off the mark Archie. Both of them have been hovering around 4/5 and evens.
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I think you missed my point. A cut from 2.10 to 1.80 for Harris in the immediate aftermath was over-reaction and 'dramatic'. The 1.93 is more realistic and aligns nicely with the Pennsylvania price.
 
LUKE said:
Palestine is a reason for Democrats not to vote.
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This is one of the key variables. As it stands, I don't see many Democrats taking that option because they know that Trump would probably be a worse option for their views. However, as we've both observed, much can happen in the next few weeks.
 
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