What are you backing Today? Part 2

12.07 Kelso tomorrow Romeo Brown

My immediate thoughts when Hills opened with 18-1 earlier were...1. That looks a rick and 2. only another 2 points and it would have been on the longshot thread.

However, 90 mins later and he's now only 17-2 WH and a best-priced 10-1 365.

Course, distance, ground all should be spot on. No rain other than light drizzle forecast, and he can go on GS. Dry night could see it more towards good.

Romeo showed last time over an inadequate 2m1f (although at Carlisle so more like a bit further) that he still had the will, always front two at a good pace and only giving way at the last then fading up that stiff finish after a 218-day break. Even noted as an eyecatcher that day by the RP.

Two to beat on paper. Bois Guillbert may not have shown yet fully what he's got, the Nicky Richards fav Luckie Seven is a Soldier Of Fortune and may be better in this class over further but could well still have enough to win it.

It was 2 years ago that Romeo was winning a 2 and a half Aintree Class 2 from the front at 50-1 (and doing us a favour in the process), and a further 6 months before that winning a Haydock 3-mile C2 in good style (understatement, ran a big field into the ground). 4 out of 5 of last season's runs were on unsuitable proper soft ground. Tom Midgley rides and did so at Carlisle, he should know what to do.

I think the stable will be disappointed if it turns out that haven't found a strong opportunity to at least run very close. As a 10yo, probably won't have too many chances of this type left.
 
Can't say I am a fan of John Gosden or the way he has campaigned Danielle this season. from day 2 it was obvious she relished soft ground but he ran her several times on unsuitable surfaces..a Nicky Henderson type ultra cautious approach may have been a better way to go...If he had waited until autumn I would be having the kitchen sink on today but he may have robbed her of the brilliance she showed early in her career..will have a good bet on her but not enough to worry about..Danielle 9/4
 
Outsider said:
LLatenightpass17/2 grand Sefton
oneforthegutter 28/1. November hcap
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I backed Latenightpass and Percussion last night
They are both drifting like a barge.
Very strange as they both have decent course form.
Percussion is out to 12/1 and looks well handicapped.
Am I missing something?
 
I’m on Gaboriot in that. They dropped him into Hunter chases last season to give him confidence after a moderate first season having come from France, and he was unlucky to unseat here in the Foxhunters. Yard won this last year.
 
Desijo said:
I backed Latenightpass and Percussion last night
They are both drifting like a barge.
Very strange as they both have decent course form.
Percussion is out to 12/1 and looks well handicapped.
Am I missing something?
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I've gone in again on Percussion it's out to 16/1 with hills boosted to just over 17/1.
Looks a huge each way price to me unless someone knows something I don't
Wouldn't be the first time🤣
 
Very annoyed that I meant to back Forward Plan at 12/ for the Badger Beer which was available until Thursday evening but forgot. Backed him this morning but only 11/2.

Gone with Outlaw Peter in the Grand Sefton. Several of PFN’s have needed their first run but not all and he seems quite bullish about this one who’s gone well fresh in the past. The fat controller has had the first two winners at Wincanton so let’s hope that’s a good sign
 
I'm having one of those days today.

Loads of seconds and thirds at not so punitive prices but put them all in a win yankee. Very frustrating. Soul Icon the latest to be just touched off.

At least I've got a date tonight.
 
Desijo said:
I backed Latenightpass and Percussion last night
They are both drifting like a barge.
Very strange as they both have decent course form.
Percussion is out to 12/1 and looks well handicapped.
Am I missing something?
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The huge drift on latenightpass and Percussion was telling.
They doubled in price in 24 hrs.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Elite Hurdle - I've had a wee pop at Aspire Tower at 5/1 (outsider of three). Favourite Rubaud is officially rated 147 and has to give AT 6lbs but the latter was rated 160 at the end of season 20-21 before a lengthy absence. HdB wouldn't send it over here for a £70k race, I don't think, just for some fresh air.
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Not sure what to make of that race. AT looked like it was trying early as the money for it might have suggested (sp 3/1) but from about halfway I started thinking today was about getting its mark down, maybe with something like the County in mind.

I was more impressed by Rubaud than I anticipated, especially his hurdling through the first mile. Very slick indeed. Not sure where PFN can go with him now, though. He's not good enough for championship races and too high for handicaps.
 
As a racing spectacle it was by far the most compelling watch of the NH season so far but, as I say, the jockey's stats had me believing something else down the line was the target.

The screenshot is up to date to include today's result but his other stats are not compelling.

Sam Thomas is a genius of a trainer.

Screenshot (114).png
 
I think for any conditional it can take a while to get going. He’s attached to the Hobbs/White yard who didn’t have a huge amount of horses in last year (gone up this time) and it’s just a question of getting noticed. Ben Jones was a conditional in the yard and his career really took off last season once he hooked up with Ben Pauling.

Today will have helped hugely and even my mother remarked on what a nice quiet rider he looked. He’s a really nice guy too and very chatty which owners will like.
 
jinnyj said:
I think for any conditional it can take a while to get going. He’s attached to the Hobbs/White yard who didn’t have a huge amount of horses in last year (gone up this time) and it’s just a question of getting noticed. Ben Jones was a conditional in the yard and his career really took off last season once he hooked up with Ben Pauling.

Today will have helped hugely and even my mother remarked on what a nice quiet rider he looked. He’s a really nice guy too and very chatty which owners will like.
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Still put me off the bastert...
 
And Jack Tudor, another recruit from the Pointing ranks a few seasons ago took the Sefton Chase on another good positive ride. I flagged him up on the “One to Watch” thread after James Bowen and Connor Brace. The next one I will be flagging is Ed Vaughan, son of trainer Tim, while there is a decent 16yo in Rian Corcoran who is another showing real talent.

I love it when these jockeys appear on the scene in the point to point field as you can spot them a mile off. They’re invariably young but outriding much older jockeys who have been around a while. Lovely to see.
 
Aftertiming on my part but that was my only biggish bet of the day.

Great from all concerned and I liked that the jockey didn't allow the horse to get involved in a scrap up front when Frero Bampot took him on.
 
I've no idea what wins today, though after David Pipe's winner yesterday in the Sefton, I had a look at the stable form, and it seems to me that David Pipe horses are in good form.

He's been knocking in a winner every day or every other day the past two weeks or so at least.

He's got four today, so I'll try a Lucky 15 for a bit of fun to see if I can turn in a profit. This is probably the quick way to the poor house, mind.

Ffos Las

12.10 Gold In The Rivers
1.15 Shot Boii
3.00 Doors Breaker
3.35 Chauffeur Driven
 
Marb said:
I've two horses I want to mention for Saturday.

Bangor 1:30.

Cheddleton, yes I said it, Cheddleton. A frustrating horse to follow for two years between 2021-2023, where he was often trying to make all, then just not finishing his races off too well. He was raised to a mark of 149 after winning a novice chase at the end of 2020, so his handicap mark may have been too high for too long. I was really impressed with his win the last day over fences, back on a mark in the 130's, beating the in-form horse of Kim Baileys called The Edgar Wallace. Cheddleton was actually held up off the pace, in first time cheekpieces. He finished the race off well. Jennie Candlish now tests the horse in this class two handicap hurdle, with the cheekpieces applied again, and hopefully another hold up ride where Cheddleton can finish well again.

He does have form over hurdles. There was a run at Haydock at the end of 2022, where he finished behind future winners Stainsby Girl and Benson, with L'Eau Du Sud back in fourth, when he was only a four year old. So Cheddleton's back-form has always been half decent, and while he struggled to get his head in front for two years, I fancy he can win this if he's ridden correctly. I respect Jungle Jack's form with the Morebattle winner, Cracking Rhapsody, and I'd have McCains horse favourite myself. He's short enough though, so I'm looking for the each way bet on Cheddleton. Maybe a reverse forecast is in the pipeline. Jungle Jack to try and make all with Cheddleton picking him up near the finish. That's how I see things.
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Chedders out tomorrow in the 3.35 at Bangor.

I could write an essay, but I'll save this analysis to a short sentence. It depends what Chedders is going to turn up on the day, and what form he's in at home. It might be as simple as that. I'll stick him in the each way yankee anyway. I prefer West To The Bridge of the market leaders. I'll permutate him.

There's several decent looking races at Bangor tomorrow, as it happens.
 
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