Champion Hurdle Road ToThread 24/25

Quite impressive, made a horlicks of four out and gave a lot of the others a fair bit of air. No contest with CH so far as hurdling technique is concerned, but it’s early days.
 
If they all get there safe and sound this year, it will be a Champion Hurdle for the ages. It’s looking great 15 weeks away!
 
Perspective, please.

Third placed Beacon Edge is only rated 144 and was beaten less than ten lengths (9lbs) giving her 7lb. She needs to be 20lbs better than that to have any chance in the Champion Hurdle (which I think she has zero chance of running in, let alone winning).

And the oppo today was slow old boats better over further. She's the one with the speed.

In my cynical opinion, it was one of those races where connections of the opposition could fill their boots with an easy odds-on winner.
 
Perspective, please.

Third placed Beacon Edge is only rated 144 and was beaten less than ten lengths (9lbs) giving her 7lb. She needs to be 20lbs better than that to have any chance in the Champion Hurdle (which I think she has zero chance of running in, let alone winning).

And the oppo today was slow old boats better over further. She's the one with the speed.

In my cynical opinion, it was one of those races where connections of the opposition could fill their boots with an easy odds-on winner.
Ok, we have the prospect of a CH for the ages ie, the last two winners (one attempting a remarkable comeback); and two high-class pretenders.

But, yes, Mullins is not likely to run Lossiemouth AND State Man; and Henderson isn’t likely to run SG and CH against each other.

We dream on.
 
Perspective, please.

Third placed Beacon Edge is only rated 144 and was beaten less than ten lengths (9lbs) giving her 7lb. She needs to be 20lbs better than that to have any chance in the Champion Hurdle (which I think she has zero chance of running in, let alone winning).
The winning margin hardly rates her superiority.

She runs.
 
No one knows more than Joe Donnelly who owns Sir Gino and State Man and if Sir Gino goes chasing you an bet Constitution Hill is spot on to make a comeback

Hendo referenced this in his interview. But State Man is only the champion because CH wasn't there.

Is SM now too old to go chasing? Didn't they leave it late with Sharjah to go chasing?

I reckon State Man is some way better than Sir G but that might not be the case come the 2026 (no typo) festival but will they wait that long? Hendo says Sir G jumps a fence as well as anything he's ever trained, which is a huge compliment and a strong indicator, imo, as to where the hose goes this season.

No doubt Lossiemouth is a lot better than she needed to show today but it doesn't mean today's form amounts to a hill of beans. It was no more than a public gallop.
 
The 40/1 Anzadam will look big after: it wins the Bula by ten, Constitution Hill gets the Quadvirus, Lossiemouth falls mysteriously pregnant, Sir Gino runs out at the first in the Christmas Hurdle onto the Chase course where he completes a perfect circuit to become Arkle favourite and State Man leaves racing altogether to become ceo of PETA.

You read it here first.
 
I'd sort of lie inbetweem opinions here I wouldn't be quite as harsh as Maurice but 2/1 for a Champion Hurdle based on that today is madness.
 
.......but it is a long way removed from reality. Do you know who Brian Acheson is, do you know much he spends on horse racing, have you seem any of the emotional interviews he has given to RTE. If you think he would back an odds on shot against his own reigning Champion Stayer you are seriously deluded. We aren't talking about Wolverhampton on a Monday afternoon.
 
There is a correlation in racing between prize-money/stud value versus betting market liquidity and integrity.

The higher the prize money the more likely a race is to be straight.

It's down the bottom, where's there a lot more won to be made from betting than from prize money, that most integrity issues lie.

I'm not having it that a wealthy bloke who owns loads of top-end jumpers would bother his arse about betting the odds-on about someone else's horse in a Grade 1 and instructing that his be given an easy.
 
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.......but it is a long way removed from reality. Do you know who Brian Acheson is, do you know much he spends on horse racing, have you seem any of the emotional interviews he has given to RTE. If you think he would back an odds on shot against his own reigning Champion Stayer you are seriously deluded. We aren't talking about Wolverhampton on a Monday afternoon.

I wasn't meaning the owners. People further down the food chain who don't get a cut from the prize money can make their money backing an opponent if they understand the stable rep is a gallop or two short.

But don't forget the comment from someone close to AOB after the stablemate ran on into third in one of Istabraq's CHs, speaking directly to AOB, "That's the gamble landed!" I remember it like it was this afternoon. So I do believe there is a lot of gambling involved among even the biggest stables and I've been following this game long enough to be hyper-cynical about what goes unseen.

I might be deluded/wrong/whatever; but I might not.
 
In terms of the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle, today's Fairyhouse Hattons Grace Hurdle Stakes is a good trial re the stats i.e. since 2000 , 19 runners have gone from the Hattons Grace to the following Champion Hurdle , 5 have won and 3 have placed only. Of those 6 were winners of the Hattons Grace and 4 of those won.
 
I wasn't meaning the owners. People further down the food chain who don't get a cut from the prize money can make their money backing an opponent if they understand the stable rep is a gallop or two short.

But don't forget the comment from someone close to AOB after the stablemate ran on into third in one of Istabraq's CHs, speaking directly to AOB, "That's the gamble landed!" I remember it like it was this afternoon. So I do believe there is a lot of gambling involved among even the biggest stables and I've been following this game long enough to be hyper-cynical about what goes unseen.

I might be deluded/wrong/whatever; but I might not.
The person who said that was the Irish commentator Des Scahill -the context was a bet that APOB had with all profits going to the stable staff -it was well publicised at the time.Theatreworld was the horse in question -he was hard to get fit and even harder to win with -chasing a fast pace at Cheltenham was his thing -I suppose he was a poor mans Youmzain.
Do you remember the Japanese stable lads at Ballydoyle who were charged with laying stable runners -turned out they were guilty but actually lost money laying.
 
I wasn't meaning the owners. People further down the food chain who don't get a cut from the prize money can make their money backing an opponent if they understand the stable rep is a gallop or two short.

But don't forget the comment from someone close to AOB after the stablemate ran on into third in one of Istabraq's CHs, speaking directly to AOB, "That's the gamble landed!" I remember it like it was this afternoon. So I do believe there is a lot of gambling involved among even the biggest stables and I've been following this game long enough to be hyper-cynical about what goes unseen.

I might be deluded/wrong/whatever; but I might not.
Here is a question that Jinny might answer-are many stable staff successful long term gamblers.
 
Ian Balding wasn't very good at gambling so he asked the advice of Toby Balding who said only back your own horses so he did and still lost money.
Shows how hard it is.
 
She might go to the International Hurdle or Kempton for the Christmas Hurdle.

"The International is a Grade 2 so I want to look at the conditions - that might not suit us.

"We will consider Kempton, it may be that that is the one to go for with her and let Anzadam go to Cheltenham."
 
The person who said that was the Irish commentator Des Scahill -the context was a bet that APOB had with all profits going to the stable staff -it was well publicised at the time.Theatreworld was the horse in question -he was hard to get fit and even harder to win with -chasing a fast pace at Cheltenham was his thing -I suppose he was a poor mans Youmzain.
Do you remember the Japanese stable lads at Ballydoyle who were charged with laying stable runners -turned out they were guilty but actually lost money laying.

Many thanks for this insight, Luke. I wasn't aware.
 
Here is a question that Jinny might answer-are many stable staff successful long term gamblers.

My understanding is that not many would be. I'd imagine those closest to the trainer (ie head lad, head travelling lad etc) would definitely know what's genuinely 'expected' and what isn't. I also believe trainers and some owners have 'arrangements' with bookies allowing them to back their horses expecting to win on the understanding that the info isn't released to anyone. It's a hit the bookies are willing to take in order to manipulate the market to cover the losses.

I reckon only a small percentage of owners are involved in racing purely for the sport. The whole raison d’être of racing in Britain and Ireland for 95+% is betting.

But I've watched enough races, especially certain types of races in Ireland, to see with my own eyes that certain horses are obviously simply allowed to win largely uncontested, usually at odds-on. It happens in Britain too but not to the same extent. It's much more likely here that an odds-on shot will be allowed to run down the park.
 
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Timeform's figures updated last week so before the weekend's racing:


177CONSTITUTION HILL
167STATE MAN
163TEAHUPOO
162BALLYBURN
162IMPAIRE ET PASSE
161IRISH POINT
159BOB OLINGER
158STRONG LEADER
157BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD (f)
157FLOORING PORTER
156HOME BY THE LEE
156LANGER DAN
156PIED PIPER
155ASTERION FORLONGE
154pLOSSIEMOUTH (f)
154BUDDY ONE
154HIDDENVALLEY LAKE
154JESSE EVANS
153pSIR GINO
153BLAZING KHAL
153CRAMBO
153MYSTICAL POWER

[th]
HURDLERS

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But neither SG nor Lossie did anything to enhance their rating so they're probably as were. Lossie's 7lbs allowance will bring her up to 161, so third top. That's why she's short. State Man was beaten and CH has questions to answer. But I wouldn't touch her with a barge pole.

Edit - just noticed Brighterdaysahead in there with her allowance to keep her above Lossie as well.
 
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