Champion Hurdle Road ToThread 24/25

Looks like one gigantic no bet race to me. At the moment anyway.

If Constitution turned up in top form, if if if, etc.

This doesn't mean it'll be bad a race come the day, mind. But prices in early December mean nothing, surely.

Save your money for the big meetings coming up over Christmas.
 
Ian_Davies said:
The 40/1 Anzadam will look big after: it wins the Bula by ten, Constitution Hill gets the Quadvirus, Lossiemouth falls mysteriously pregnant, Sir Gino runs out at the first in the Christmas Hurdle onto the Chase course where he completes a perfect circuit to become Arkle favourite and State Man leaves racing altogether to become ceo of PETA.

You read it here first.
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Already on it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheers, Archie.

That's got to be based on race standardisation rather than form analysis. It will be interesting to see what the donkey in third goes u to.
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The third, Beacon Edge, a 10yo who hasn't run better on RPRs than 146 since April 2023 (and that was a very slow race) gets raised 3lbs for the run.

No wonder the UK handicappers do their own ratings for Irish horses. That's a hugely optimistic interpretation of the bare form of a slow-run race over a trip on the short side for the stayers in it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheers, Archie.

That's got to be based on race standardisation rather than form analysis. It will be interesting to see what the donkey in third goes u to.
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I think that we all understand that handicapping elite horses is an art rather than a science because they don't usually run in handicaps so there's a certain amount of latitude. I'd be fairly confident that Lossiemouth would be competitive in a handicap off 160 and is capable of a few pounds more. That, with the allowance, would put her up to about the same level as State Man and would put her in the mix against a Constitution Hill who will surely struggle to run to 170 after all his problems. Just an interesting intellectual exercise at the moment.
 
archie said:
I think that we all understand that handicapping elite horses is an art rather than a science because they don't usually run in handicaps so there's a certain amount of latitude. I'd be fairly confident that Lossiemouth would be competitive in a handicap off 160 and is capable of a few pounds more. That, with the allowance, would put her up to about the same level as State Man and would put her in the mix against a Constitution Hill who will surely struggle to run to 170 after all his problems. Just an interesting intellectual exercise at the moment.
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Yes and no, archie.

She might be competitive in a hcap off 160 (no allowance there, mind) but that doesn't mean she ran to 160 the other day, which is what rating a race should be about.

I think the handicapper has taken your approach and stuck it in reverse gear. I think he's decided Lossie and State Man would dead heat if she got the 7lbs and gone with that as the rating but the knock-on effect with Beacon Edge makes no sense other than in the context of the higher figure for Lossie. I reckon connections of Beacon Edge will be gnashing their teeth at his new mark and regretting running him in the race.

It might also have connections of other horses wondering what might be the point of running in these races if they're going to get punished for getting beat by superior horses.
 
I've written about this here in regard to Kihavah - any trainer who runs a horse in a pattern event it can't win is playing with fire because they're kneeling down and begging for a hike in the handicap if they get anywhere near.

It can turn out as bad a piece of training as giving a horse the wrong feed.

That said, ten grand for a 3lb rise isn't as bad a deal as I've seen some end up with.

Smart trainers like James Owen get every last drop of juice out of the handicap mark before going fit Pattern events - Exhibit A being Burdett Road in the Greatwood first run back off the Flat.
 
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It never ceases to amaze me how many people can reach an advsnced age in this game and still seemingly not understand how the handicapping system works.

Some of these people hold training licences.

Like the one moaning about a 12lb hike recently.

Your horse won a Saturday handicap by THIRTY ONE lengths - what do you expect?

Maybe you should be briefing your jockeys not to win too far.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I've written about this here in regard to Kihavah - any trainer who runs a horse in a pattern event it can't win is playing with fire because they're kneeling down and begging for a hike in the handicap if they get anywhere near.

It can turn out as bad a piece of training as giving a horse the wrong feed.

That said, ten grand for a 3lb rise isn't as bad a deal as I've seen some end up with.

Smart trainers like James Owen get every last drop of juice out of the handicap mark before going fit Pattern events - Exhibit A being Burdett Road in the Greatwood first run back off the Flat.
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Yes, always annoying when a trainer throws one in a group 2 or 3 on the flat when as a punter you want it in a handicap.

Mind you, on the flat at least they've got the excuse of trying to increase breeding value. Although many are actually geldings which would contradict that.

In the case of Kihavah, I'll allow the trainer artistic license, as he did run quite well in third, albeit that being of no help to punters once the field went down to 7 runners.
 
The horse went up 5lb after being beat at Kempton and risked another hike on Saturday, though he might actually get away with it his time as it was a truly lousy Fighting Fifth and the first three home look like they simply ran to their pre-race marks.
 
EXACTLY - the price of place prize money in pattern races.

I sound like a broken record, but compare and contrast with what James Owen did with Burdett Road.
 
You and I should be tasked with targeting horses at the big handicaps.

If I win the Euromillions - I'm talking three-figure millions - I would definitely try and find a horse that could place in a G/Gr1 and aim at at £100k handicaps, trying to get it in off a mark in the mid-80s (Flat) / 130s (NH) to start with.

I'd love to do the Lincoln/Hunt Cup/Cambs treble in one season or, over jumps, the Greatwood/Schweppes/County treble. Or the equivalents over other trips or fences.
 
Ian_Davies said:
The 40/1 Anzadam will look big after: it wins the Bula by ten, Constitution Hill gets the Quadvirus, Lossiemouth falls mysteriously pregnant, Sir Gino runs out at the first in the Christmas Hurdle onto the Chase course where he completes a perfect circuit to become Arkle favourite and State Man leaves racing altogether to become ceo of PETA.

You read it here first.
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Everyone is on this bandwagon -honourable mention to Dave Nevison who gave him a Good mention straight after the race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
You and I should be tasked with targeting horses at the big handicaps.

If I win the Euromillions - I'm talking three-figure millions - I would definitely try and find a horse that could place in a G/Gr1 and aim at at £100k handicaps, trying to get it in off a mark in the mid-80s (Flat) / 130s (NH) to start with.

I'd love to do the Lincoln/Hunt Cup/Cambs treble in one season or, over jumps, the Greatwood/Schweppes/County treble. Or the equivalents over other trips or fences.
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I would like to have a share in a Saturday horse in Australia.
 
LUKE said:
Everyone is on this bandwagon -honourable mention to Dave Nevison who gave him a Good mention straight after the race.
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Just as long as everyone knows it's MY bandwagon, I spotted him first - I backed him the night before while Nevison was asleep - and I'm holding the reins and steering the wagon!

Hold on tight, I'm taking the motorway route all the way to the Winner's Enclosure at Cheltenham in March! #literallyeveryonecopiesdavies
 
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Ian_Davies said:
Just as long as everyone knows it's MY bandwagon, I spotted him first - I backed him the night before while Nevison was asleep - and I'm holding the reins and steering the wagon!

Hold on tight, I'm taking the motorway route all the way to the Winner's Enclosure at Cheltenham in March! #literallyeveryonecopiesdavies
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Hope you are happy with the price and the stake.Enjoy the 3 months of Willie Mullins bingo.
 
All joking aside, I was actually alerted to the horse on Saturday afternoon by my principal betting collaborator who had just seen the race.

We hoped it might be plotted up for a big handicap (as was originally the case with State Man) as anything under 150 would be a gift in our view, but sadly it's going for the old Bula.

So as compensation I obtained some 50 for the Champion Hurdle as I think there are question marks about all those at the front of the market.

But as you perhaps imply, Mullins is a law unto himself and it could run anywhere at the Cheltenham Festival, or not at all.
 
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