Champion Hurdle Road ToThread 24/25

At 50/1 it is a nice docket to keep you warm throughout the winter.This time last year I was sitting on Ballyburn at big odds -unfortunately it wasn't a win bet -it was a bet that I stood.Was tortured for 14 weeks.
 
Tanlic said:
Very little 4/1 left bet365 still offer but all the rest go 7/2 or 3/1.

If he wins the Christmas hurdle impressively against anything with 4 legs he'll be evens for the Champion Hurdle

your 100 pounds @ 4/1 laid off makes you 150 profit.........food for thought
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Will he even start as favourite against Lossiemouth.
 
....and if he doesn't run at Kempton,gets beaten or fails to impress what price will he be.It's risk v reward -far from free money.
 
I havent forgotten - I'm sure no one has - I just think more recent events cast doubts over whether he is the horse he was.

He's had a wind op (often the start of a slippery slope when a horse needs one of those) plus other issues that have kept him off the track, apart from those poor racecourse gallops at Kempton and Newbury.

There are better bets at 4/1 every day of the week than this long-term "hope springs eternal" project which has become some sort of TH religious cult.

I actually think some people are backing the horse for fear of feeling silly if he does somehow recover his best form and wins and they're not on.

Same mentality as those who had to back City Of Troy at Del Mar, despite the appalling record of Turf horses on dirt, just in case he defied the stats.

I'd rather "look silly" once in a blue moon than lose the money such punters must lose over the course of every year.

Onr last thought - if the horse was an entire champion on the Flat, I reckon he would have long since been retired to stud.

Don't mistake keeping him in training and not giving up for the horse being on the cusp of well being - there's no other option as he's a gelding, so they will try anything and everything to patch him up and remain upbeat.

I've seen this scenario SO many times in racing over the years and the reality is they hardly ever recapture their former glories.

Ratings mean nothing here - when a horse has gone at the game, it's gone at the game and it's health, not form, you're betting on here.

Many here might read the following extract from Wikipedia and remember the events described all too clearly: "Connections of See You Then had begun the season with hopes of having the first horse to win the Champion Hurdle four times. He appeared only once, when pulling up lame in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. After the race it was announced that he had been retired. See You Then's first retirement ended when he reappeared in February 1990, finishing sixth of eight runners behind Royal Derbi in the Listed City Trial Hurdle at Nottingham. He subsequently fell in the Kingwell Hurdle, before finishing 16th in the 1990 Champion Hurdle won by Kribensis. See You Then's final racecourse appearance came in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr in April 1990, where he finished ninth behind Sayparee."
 
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All way way too early for me, I don't like getting too hung up on any one race or horse, not where my money is concerned but it will certainly be good to watch if Constitution Hill does turn up.
But Henderson is the sort of person where I'd have to check outside if he told me the sky is blue.
 
I freely admit I am hung up on Constitution Hill. I have been into racing for 65+ years and he is the best I have seen. Watching him flick over hurdles is poetry in motion and the engine he has barely increased revs as he obliterated his opponents. Jonbon, for example, has won everything - but not when he bumped into Constitution Hill, same with State Man (almost).

This is all history, of course, it’s what he’s like now that matters. For me that’s easy, I will trust he’s ok until he proves otherwise. On that basis 4/1 is a gift from heaven.
 
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I'm normally the type to think along similar lines to Ian but I was on Sprinter Sacre the day he did the world's greatest impression of Lazarus in the Champion Chase. Admittedly I backed him on the day rather than weeks earlier ante-post but my current thinking is along the following lines:

The Binocular carry-on. That episode was one of the situations that finally nailed my conviction that Hendo runs a gambling operation and they'll do whatever it takes to get the kind of price they want about one of theirs.

I also believe all his blinking, eye-rolling, cheek-puffing and stuttering is one big act to disguise a ruthless operator.

I reckon all this palaver is part of a long-term strategy to get a price about CH for the CH and it has succeeded. An easy win at Kempton will be the prelude to another at Cheltenham but I'm not sure the horse will be asked to win there by as far as his ability might merit.

Personally, I'd love to see him run in the Schweppes under 12st. He'd put all bar a couple out of the weights and win hard held.
 
Anyone not corrupted by money, or the love of it, is hugely blessed.

I'd be surprised if the likes of Alex Ferguson hasn't more wealth than Hendo but he is motivated by winning prizes and bets. A £100k hcap is worth around £50k to the winning owner but most of 'his' horses are owned by more than person with him maybe having a majority share so the winning portion is a lot less than that so bets need to be landed to make it more interesting. Trainers have to be complicit in the landing of gambles regardless of whether they bet or not.

Hendo deserves whatever wealth he has since he has put something like 50 years of hard work into his training operation but I'd be genuinely surprised if he doesn't get involved in the more successful bets.
 
I doubt if he bets in any meaningful sense.

I thought he was a really nice bloke the few times I've met him - ditto the imo vastly-underrated by some Nico De Boinville - and that's some statement from me as I'm chippier than a fish and chip shop!
 
There’s a big difference between being motivated by a desire to get involved in successful bets and the sort of skulduggery that your original post seemed to me to imply. Of course trainers and their staff get involved in the more successful bets and these successes are often well publicised but I wouldn’t be surprised if they also get involved in a few that go astray as well
 
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