Diary of a fool

Danny

Danny

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Danny

Thread 'Punting advice'

I've come to I suppose a bit of a crossroads in life. I turned 41 last week, my daughter is all grown up, I've just finished my mortgage on my humble abode, I still have a day job ( although still currently furloughed) that i detest to levels beyond anyone's comprehension so the scene is set to have a midlife crisis. Over the years I've been so busy working, dealing with family life, looking after a child and to some extent parents and certainly in laws ( or outlaws as I prefer to name them) that just getting through life has seemed like pushing treacle up a hill. I've always thought that...

So I was thinking I hadn't really been around since I packed the game up properly in March/April 2019. But apparently judging by my old posts I've made the odd cameo since. Rather than post a mega introduction again the link is a thread from a previous moment of, I should get back into racing. For those who read it before they need not bother again anyone who wasn't around can if they want too although its a lot of waffle on my part.

So where have I been and whats happened since then. Well for one reason or another the motivation to carry on punting took a whack when there was an incident where I lost my exchange account all a mix up but its gone for good. There was also a back injury that completely through me off. I've struggled with all sorts of addiction down the years and a very up and down headspace I hate to use modern terms of addictive personality, depression, adhd or on the spectrum as isn't everybody these days but lets put it this way I'm undiagnosed but I know there is definitely something wrong with me :) So anyway part of my coping strategy has always been exercise whether weight training, swimming or walking I'm never better than when I'm doing some sort of exercise regularly. The back injury I had was fairly severe and took a long time to partially recover from. The diagnosis from the doc after viewing the MRI was basically my discs we're that worn he'd expect to have seen them in a 65 year old labourer I was 42 at the time. When I asked him what i could do he said nothing they're not going to grow back you'll just have to be careful. At this point I think i returned to my other coping mechanism, Alcohol. Basically I've had a few years doing what I've had to do i.e work and family stuff then just basically saying fuck it and drinking the night away. Tbh its not been a terrible life apart from I've piled on about 4 stone. I've never felt ill effects from it I'm still up bright and early for work but one of the worst probleams I found with it that it's a complete motivation killer to do anything of purpose.

So over the last 4 years I've learned how to manage my back issue regular visits to a chiropractor, regular massages ( my favourite hour of the week ) and Ice packs always on hand. I've started swimming again and doing some sort of weight/resistance training although the weights are embarrassing and the days of the big lifts squats and deadlifts are a distant memory but the effect mentally is the same, I'm feeling better. The booze, well, I'd promised myself a last blowout in Gran canaria over Christmas but despite being all inclusive it didn't really materialise and a drank a lot less than I'd been doing week to week over here. I've said I'm easily addicted to things but Alcohol seems exempt to that as I've had periods in my life where I've drank very heavily and periods where I've nothing for periods of time. I haven't had a drink since I got back bar a couple when i was out for a meal. I haven't been craving a beer or having any withdrawals which is incredible given the amount I've been consuming over a fair period of time. I'm not giving it up completely but I've just made the decision to stop drinking in the house and I don't go out very often because...uggh people!

The other thing that changed is my job. I'm still at the same company but landed a role as a fitters mate and haven't looked back since.I work with an amazing bunch of lads all daft as brushes and we spend most the day laughing gaffers sound too. I've gone on shifts 4 on 4 off permanent days which is brilliant as taking my holiday days into account I only work about 3 days per week all year round and for someone who's been working 6's and 7's most of his life it's nice to have free time. My money has almost doubled in the last 3 years also so its win, win. The only problem is after the company has been been flat out with work since the recession of 2008/9 a brief pause during covid but then full blast since. The last 9 months though work has dropped right off and things are looking worrying as the are for anything related to the Automotive industry all across Europe so a very rocky spell but hopefully we can ride the storm and I can carry on loving life at work.

What's the purpose of the thread then and with the return to horse race betting ? If I'm completely honest I need to apply myself to something, I have a lot of spare time on my hands which is something I've always dreamed of but never had. Like everything we've dreamed of sometimes the reality isn't as nice and for someone like me the Devil will always make work for idle hands. I've always walked a line between normal life and complete madness I certainly settled down whilst my daughter was growing up but now shes grown I'm at loose end again. In my time I've been a petrol sniffer, gone day drinking with the homeless and spent plenty of years stoned and there is only one thing for sure and that's if I don't apply myself to something and keep busy there are only more unchartered heights of disgrace lying a head.

So is there any life left in the old dog can finally I emerge from the longest mid life crisis in history ? Just thinking about it if I refer to myself as an old dog at 45 when to a lot of the guys on here to whom I just be a young whippersnapper then please understand. You've heard of the expression " he must of had a tough paper round" well mine was in the Helmand Province and they made me where a high viz. Think of it in car terms, a lot of you guys are like old classics, well looked after. I'm more like a clapped out ford cortina with 200'000 on the clock, parts falling off dents in every panel , run on the wrong type of fuel and don't even mention my gear stick its been sat on, kicked, knee'd, elbowed, punched, spat on, chewed and locked in a pair of step of one's never to see the light of day again.

Once more I got distracted the aim of the thread is firstly to keep me occupied and rekindle my interest in punting. I've given up any thoughts for now anyway of punting seriously. As I mentioned on another thread I am however interested in the fools errand of trying to land one last big payday and this is partly a thread that will cover my pursuit of that but also the odd personal update as I battle through life. Writing does not come natural to me as I'm not the brightest spark but I will do my best to make posts readable. Finding winners also does not come naturally and I am fairly rusty. ( Can't write or pick winners...starts horse racing blog) . I don't consider myself to be a tipster so follow anything at you're own peril. Also I'm blessed with the attention span of a gnat and the memory of a goldfish so getting my thoughts accurately into print is always difficult so there will be times I make mistakes regards form and stuff feel free to point them out if i appear to be talking like i know what I'm on about but I'm in fact talking bollocks. Hopefully I'll stick to it for more than 5 minutes, hopefully we can have a few laughs along the way and who knows we might even get a happy ending.

Welcome to the Diary of a fool.
 
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Well a refreshing honest account and one that will resonate with many. And you do yourself a disservice saying that you write badly. You don’t! It may fall over itself at times but it’s interesting and I got to the end thinking I knew a lot more about you.

I think you wouldn’t be normal if you hadn’t got to 45 without a whole heap of “experiences” good or bad and that would apply to most of us so you don’t need to be apologetic. Life can take some steering through and there’s no manual really that comes with it. I’ve had some truly horrendous times but they are balanced out with some amazing ones too. I’ve met good and bad people alike....it’s just working out which ones are harmful to you and which you will tolerate.

Your addiction issues do sound like the potential to be ADHD related. I say this as someone who was close to a guy who I’m 100% convinced was (my German Ward has it so I have first hand experience) and there are similarities especially the addiction side. Sadly every Celeb and his wife has jumped on the bandwagon as an excuse for their poor behaviour so getting a genuine diagnosis is nigh on impossible.

But you’re a welcome addition here and most of the time it’s a fun place...with only the occasional tantrum and “handbags at dawn” (you know who you are!)
 
I was trying to put a multiple together for tomorrow for this but have only really found one that I like at a price and that's 1.52 Southwell King of York 16/1 top price or 14's with the 4 place firms. No complicated reasoning here if you look through his form 7F at Southwell is his thing and any reproduction of his last 2 runs over CD would see him go close here from a lower mark.

Plenty of others with chances I see where giggsy is going with Reputation good 2nd to City Cyclone who bolted up again from 7lb higher the other night, Anif would probably come into it as well off their last run at Southwell . Urban Dandy is probably the biggest danger in my eyes and although I could make a case for half a dozen of these, King of York at the prices is probably the best bet i reckon.

As said I'm only really interested in putting things together for a big payday from here on in but obviously there will be days like this and I'm not just going to chuck anything to try and make a multiple up but if i see anything I think is half decent I'll post them in the blog and you can make what you will of them.
 
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Cheers lads its funny how they run a bit better when I haven't backed them and tbh it'll be more luck than judgement atm. Its a new thing going into the AW racing as I've never really bothered with it or liked it bar the odd session down Wolvo as its be my local track. I know most the guys on here are fans of the National hunt game as am I at heart and that's still the case but there's no real correlation between liking the racing and trying to land a big pay day. I've decided to switch codes punting wise for the next few months at least as I think it's going to be, at least once I wrap my head around it less work. In all honesty Len I think there will be a cold day in hell before I achieve the jedi level AW skills of Andy and i'm certainly not trying to compete. In fact I will probably always give his selections a second look first as I'd be an idiot not too.

King of york ran alright he's sort of caught between trips isn't he? Run him over 7f looks like he wants a mile run him over a mile he looks like he wants 7f. As this thread progresses you'll probably here me criticise rides fairly regularly and just to show I'm fair Dale swift has given him an absolute peach today a simple ride but a peach. Got a good position and got into him plenty early enough which when you've got a a horse who gets the mile to some extent is exactly what you want see. Couldn't of asked for more from the saddle. I commented earlier on on Number crunchers thread about the early money for Soames Forsyth as being strange as I thought he was short on the book as it was. A good performance over a mile here last time with a decent figure but his previous attempts here over 7f being so poor had put me off. Early money never worries me as that's the fools like you or I but I always say late money is smart money and when the plunge continued up until the off I think the writing was on the wall. Whether he's just benefitted from that 2nd breathing op or whether we file it under the header "they knew" is open for debate. Personally I didn't see it coming but then I've plenty to learn about the murky world of punting on the sand.

Anyway, hopefully I'll be able to find a few of these types to put together at some point for attempt 1, I'm thinking realistically e/w trixies are going to be the way to go when playing multiples the less bets the better. E/w trixies at big prices can be an absolute heartbreaker of a bet as I've kicked them off before with 33/1 shots and 25/1 shots and then walked a way empty handed so it certainly tests the mental fortitude.

On a personal level I've stayed off the drink, I've had a positive day today gym, swim and a good 6 mile walk which is in stark contrast to the last couple days where I've hung around the house in my sweats, surfing tinterweb, tiktok'ing my life away living mainly on a diet of cheese on toast, bags of Haribo and coffee. Back to work tomorrow for 4 shifts so fairly possible I'll see you on the other side of that. Be lucky and have a good weekend.
 
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With my moves it looks more like a seizure tbf. Me having an only fans account is probably the only way I could spend my time and actually make less than I do punting horses.
 
I've come up with a few for today not exactly the bet I had in mind but a few cropped up at bigger prices than I thought.


5.00 Wolverhampton Kalganov + Berkshire Phantom

Firstly there are a few here with a lot more obvious chances H key Lalis won great last time blazing a trail over a mile drops back to 7f here he'd also blazed a trail at Chelmsford before that over a mile and faded late on he won't have much competition for the lead here maybe only fools will keep him company but he'll be difficult to peg back if they give him enough rope not sure he's quite as effective on Tapeta though. So Kalganov comes here woefully out of form and his trainer is also having a terrible time of things 14% rtf and non of his runners even making the frame over the last 14 days. I'm hoping Kalganov who went off at an Sp of 125/1 last time out might turn it around for him,not quite that price this time but is still rank outsider. Last time he was at Wolverhampton wss this time last year he was running off a mark of 77 and was beaten 2.5 lengths producing an RPR of 81 in a CL4. He continued with plenty of solid efforts on the AW weather off marks of 77 and 76. He's then gone on be beaten out of sight in 3 turf runs during the spring . After a long break he returned in December without his usual cheek pieces and was well beaten. Next time out the pieces returned but he was unusually dropped out the back where as he's normally a prominent runner. He took a keen grip as he can do normally and made some late headway, not very eye catching really under what looked a very weak/ not knocked about ride. It was a least enough to show me he's not one of these finished sorts who bob up and down on the spot when asked for effort. As a result of 3 poor turf runs and these 2 efforts on the sand which can be excused to some extent he returns to Wolverhampton 13lb lower and a drop in class compared to his 2.5 length defeat. Drawn in one isn't ideal but with only HKL and only fools prominent runners there is a chance if they want to to get him a decent position in behind from where I'm sure he'd fair much better I think we'll know our fate early it he's dropped out the rear again. I thought Berkshire Phantom would be amongst the market leaders I was shocked to see him at 16/1 on the overnights (I've only got 12's as I'm trying not to take overnight prices account protection and all that) . So I've had to include him he drops back to 7f here after a decent run over the extended mile here which came after a break was a very decent run in the context of this race and he's entitled to come on for it. His 7f form at the track is there for all to see there are no great secrets here on his runs last February over course and distance he's fully entitled to be in the mix and I had to include him.


5.30 Wolverhampton Walk the Moon


This race has given me a bit of a headache and in general I think I want to stay away from contests over further than 10F here because a lot of the time they are run at farcical gallops. I've been giving a few races the once over in the week and one I fancied the other night to go well here was Sophsoc at the time he was about 40/1 and there was a 2/5 fav he was heavily punted and beaten last of 6. He's been campaigned at further than 12F of late and he was dropping back to that trip that night which was part of the appeal as he has decent record in 12F races here. I found it interesting that he was being turned out so quickly after such a disappointing show. He's a 9yo and this would be the quickest he's ever been turned out again after a run. Twice before he's been turned out for a run in under a week and yielded one win and the other time was another decent run. Only trouble is on his last run he's forced the pace as he should have done over a trip this short but he folded like a cheap tent and got beat 23l I'm amazed that he's not 40/1 again and he's opened up 10's. At 40's I might of chanced my arm but no way at 10's. Another trail of thought I had was most the field have been around a while and its a pretty terrible level so one who's a little less exposed like Hawa Jumeriah might be capable of more. His form as a 3yo was pretty pants but he's been gelded since then and his seasonal debut at Kempton was a big step up on his prior performances very keen after a break went well for a long way and tired up quickly late on. So not a lot to go at but he's entitled to come on for that run and he wouldn't have to come on that much to play a role here especially if he settles a bit better. Over a slightly longer trip and around these sharp bends given how keen he was I'd want a a bigger price than he is to take the chance he's one I'll be keeping an eye on though. The one I sort of turned my nose up at early on is the one that's probably ended up being the one I like most at the current prices and that's Walk the moon. On the face of it his recent 2nd over CD to subsequent winner High court Judge looks enough to give him a shout but I had watched the race earlier in the week and wasn't that impressed it was a muddling affair and High court Judge put big sectionals in to win from a bad position. But a couple of things I hadn't taken into consideration was how keen Walk the moon was, he finished the race out very well he was coming off the back of a break and a wind op. It was much improved form from anything he'd done prior and he'd be entitled to have come on for that. I think he'd also benefit from a truer run race. There must be some hope of that here as Max of stars likes to get on with things and make use of his Stamina and if Sophsoc runs and did what he did the other night then we could get a better run race which I think would suit Walk the moon as he got caught a bit flatfooted when the pace quickened it may be he didn't like trying to quicken around the bend as he picked up well once on the straight. I'm only 3 places on this :( there are 4 place bookies available so he's probably booked for 4th spot on that basis only.



6.00 Wolverhampton Gogo Yubari + Not just yet

Tyke for me would be an obvious favourite could well of won the other night set a strong pace but unfortunately off an already strong pace the jockey turned the afterburners on a touch too early and he got picked off late on, well clear of the rest and goes off the same mark here. Is it a big ask 7 days later to try and reproduce that effort I think so. Professor tickle was in behind and should have no chance of turning it around. Beauzon fav that day ran 7f instead of 6f pegged on the wide outside all the way around. Should get a better position from stall 1 and his best form has every chance of winning but even though pegged outside he'd looked a little off the boil the time before. He's closely matched on a run over CD with Not just yet. I think Beauzon will fare better this time from stall 1 and I'd expect him to be prominent along with Tyke and professor tickle going from the front end this could turn up into a bit of a tear up and set it up for a hold up horse like Not just yet. Disappointing over CD last time but himself was trapped outside with no cover so for me that's excusable his 2 penultimate runs here would probably be enough to feature. As said closely matched with Beauzon if not weighted to reverse and double the price and the race will likely set up to suit. Em Jay Kay and Mumayaz are both on marks higher than they've ever won off and they've been around a while and had plenty of goes. That brings me to Gogo. Gogo has been in pretty consitent form been over 5f more recently and running o.k. 5 runs and 2 wins at Wolvo and 3 other respectable runs. Won her only try over 6f here off a mark of 67. Goes off the same mark today with Morgan cole taking 5lb off. Good draw in stall 2. Holds an obvious I was hoping for a slightly bigger price than 7/2 but I think she's the most likely winner.

8 x e/w Doubles
4 x e/w Trebles

Although I'm sticking mainly to multiples in search for big paydays the first race was the race I'm probably most hopeful for today and given the prices of the 2 selections I've had a go with a little 4 horse attempt at a combi tricast/trifecta and have added the 2 prominent runner HK lails and Only fools to the 2 selections for that.

On a personal level another fairly good week still off the fags and the booze and have eaten a bit better and for the first time in a long time my weight has come down a bit only 4lb but its a start, long way to go about another 3 and a half stone to roughly where I know my weight needs to be but I'll keep plodding along the load road. I've another 3 days left off work so planning on getting plenty of swimming, gym sessions and walks in. No crazier places than gyms in January. Will also be putting a bit of time in catching up on all things sand racing as its all new to me this is also going to be a long journey and a steep learning curve.

Best of luck with your own bets today.
 
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Apologies if some of the prices changed whilst I was writing that out it appears the markets have completely changed. Berkshire Phantom has been bashed into 9/2 but tbh its a double edged sword as it buggers up my tricast attempt and that's barely worthwhile unless the big priced one frames now. Also have to say Beauzon has drifted out from 5's to 20's if I could of got that price about him at the time think I'd of had to include him too. Can't get used to how volatile these AW markets are. Oh well let the cards fall how they may.
 
A bit of a review of the days failings.

The 5.00 race went completely to plan...well at least for the first few furlongs. As I'd said HK lails led the way with Only fools for company and Kalganov as I'd hoped got the perfect position in behind but never really saw the race out and faded into last. Berkshire Phantom who was gambled from a morning price of 12/1 down to 7/2 just ran a respectable race without really threatening. Only fools I'd included in the trifecta so I obviously I gave him a chance of being thereabouts but he was by no means screaming at me before the race as the winner and certainly I couldn't have been backing him at the price he was around 7/2 I think. No complaints both of mine given fine rides just were't good enough on the day.

In the 5.30 I more or less predicted my own doom as Walk the Moon faded late on to finish 4th. I got the stronger pace I was after even though Sophsoc was a NR. Max of Stars as predicted made sure it was a good test. A couple of bits of frustration as the only other horse I mentioned Hawa Jumeriah was heftily punted and bolted up despite fluffing the start and coming from a mile back I've just picked the wrong one here going for proven over potential. The 2nd here This time Maybe finished behind Walk the moon over CD last time so the form line into it was sound I just feel that the strong pace and how things panned out suited that one more than mine in the end and the improvement I'd expected from the last run to this never materialised.

In the 6.00 well GoGo certainly did Gogo on the "B of the Bang" set off like a scalded cat whether Morgan Cole forgot it was a 6f race and not 5f I don't know but certainly blew his brains out to that point and faded to finish last. It did beg the question how the devil its been getting beaten over 5f recently I can't wait to see the splits. Certainly got the fast pace I desired unfortunately Not just yet completely fluffed the start as did the eventual winner Mumayaz but where as his Jockey rustled him straight up to make a bit of ground Hollie doyle appeared to have all the time in the world on my fella I think she thought she was riding Winx. That said ran through well to finish again like any good 3 place e/w bet...in 4th, didn't have the best of starts, didn't have the clearest of runs up the straight but at best he'd have been a closer 4th to a first 3 that there wasn't much between. Again couldn't of fancied the outsider of those 3. Em jay kay and Mumayez as said in the write up have been consistent enough and knocking on the door off these sorts of marks without winning and once more I couldn't have seen much value in the prices this morning.

So not disgraced with my performance but i'm reaching in my pocket and only feeling my leg which is never a good feeling so I'd like to say sayonara baby but the probability is I'll be back with another attempt next week.
 
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Well it's attempt 2 and I still haven't really found what I'm looking for. I'm finding this all weather racing tough to get my head around. It's the first time I've ever really paid much notice to it and whilst I can make some sense of it form wise from, what I've seen so far there seems to be a higher percentage of completely unfathomable winners. By that I mean I'd usually go back and look at winners of races and quite often with hindsight you can at least see the case for them no matter how frail it may be. Of course you get the odd one that comes up which no matter which way you look at it you could never have seen it coming but thus far, about 3 weeks in to project kitty litter I'm seeing a lot more wtf results than I'm accustomed to. The shockingly slow early pace of some of the events especially from the bits I've seen at Newcastle are again something I need to get my head around. That said I'll plough on and I've managed to put a bet together all be it at short prices so it's not as if its a game changer if it lands.

4.26 Wolves Pessoa
I've gone for the simplest answer to the puzzle with this one where as in the past I've certainly tended to over complicate things. Pessoa may well have found his trip last time with this extended mile. He's ran well recently over 7f and and extended 9f but last time over this trip he put in his best recent performance albeit a bit unlucky in the run and he didn't need to be knocked about to pick up 2nd place behind Kitaro Kich. He re opposes on 5lb better off terms today that combined with hopefully a clearer run and an inside line on the favourite given KK is drawn out wide will hopefully be enough to reverse. I think that's the best form line coming into this so hopefully that'll be enough. Dangers include Falcon nine who had been running alright but pulled way to hard in first time headgear last time over 10F. If the headgear has the same effect here then it could see a much improved performance over his previous mile form and wouldn't need that much to take this, but I'm hoping not. My brother Mike. I'm always wary that I like the name of this horse as in one of my groups of friends we have someone called Brother Mike as the guy basically lives like a monk we all landed a punt once (excuse the after timing ) on name basis alone and if today doesn't go well I might return to that method. He's a big price this morning and certainly represents some value. I thought it was a strange move to drop him back in trip last time after he'd done so well on previous runs over todays CD. On those efforts he'd have a great chance an really he was borderline as a main selection today but my overriding feeling was it's very rare he win's two in close succession, he ran flat last time ( could make excuses running wide and trip) but he's not getting any younger and I've narrowly passed him over in favour of the shorter priced Pessoa.

6.30 Ravenglass
This is a race where I have the feeling I'm just gonna get punched clean in the dick ! Kranjacar has nothing in the way of proper form and is short priced favourite. He's twice been beaten favourite in his last 2 runs. He's travelled with promise both times and both times he's had the perfect tow into the race as he's been drawn right behind the pace. He's certainly looked like the winner right up until he sees daylight and then finds a little bit less than zero. They've put blinkers on today I'm supposing they are hoping that will help him go through with his effort but if they light him up in anyway shape or form then it's not going to help him get home and he may well find he doesn't get that perfect tow into the race this time. Just by the very nature that I'm betting against him though his hopes have doubled. Big narstie has Rossa Ryan booked and he certainly has a good record on him he's a lot shorter in the betting than on his last couple of efforts and whilst he's well handicapped now on older form, I've watched his last couple of runs and there haven't been any signs he's about to spark. Onto the selection Ravenglass 2 run's ago did a bit too much in front when 3rd over the extended mile that race worked out incredibly well. Should've been a good thing when he dropped back in trip here but given tactically bad ride Joe levy and he struggled to settle him in midfield when really over that trip I'd have liked to have seen plenty of use made of him. Cam hardie takes back over today who went close on him off the same mark 3 runs back. The horse has hung right on his last couple of runs as he's come wide down the straight. I'm hoping drawn 2 today that he'll stay along the rail to help keep him straight and give him that bit extra he needs for victory. A little concerned they've changed the headgear. It may help settle him but over this trip i really wouldn't have minded seeing him revved up and spinning it off the front end toady. He has run well in the Visor when first applied some time ago so hopefully it doesn't take the edge off him. Sam's hope is probably the main danger on form and could improve for this trip but I still feeling the formless favourite is waiting to kick me in the jacobs.

7.00 Jimmy knocker
Very simple case for Jimmy Knocker. Slowly run first couple of furlongs in his race at Newcastle slow away held up and came through fairly cosily to win. The first 3 there putting a considerable distance between themselves and the rest of the field especially impressive given the early fractions. The 2nd and the 3rd have won since. Oriental prince had won 2 5f contests going into that race and won a 5f contest after that race. He did race jimmy over 6f that day but it basically turned into a 4f sprint and he had first run on him. A 4lb rise seems very fair given the 2 subsequent winners from the race. Unexposed compared to the rest here and well drawn there's plenty to like. Slightly worried about the slow start and getting too far back but should be a fair pace here so I'm hopeful. Very respectful of City Cyclone even though he's gone up the weights and down in trip he'll be a hard one to pass up the straight. The other one that nearly made me pull the trigger was Bibendum joint outsider of the lot and badly drawn but he'd ran a great race here in October and the race was pretty solid from wise. Disappointed when back here in November after that which the Jockey said he'd run flat. Take with a pinch of salt Jockey's excuses but the horse was given a 60 day break after that. Ran ok at Southwell on return for his first run back then returns here with blinkers first time. He likes to go from the front so if he can break and get a decent position from here then he's no back number and should run a big race not quite worthy of inclusion in the main bet but a bit of a value poke if you're into that sort of thing.


Played a win Trixie on the main 3.

I have had to have a tenner each way double on My brother Mike and Bibendum both at 22's I think just in case I slip myself the ultimate custard.

Good luck for today my fellow forumites and may the betting gods be with you. Attempt 3 probably next week but I might put some musings about life up in between so you can tune out for the next post reet ;)
 
Well the review/obituary.

No good whatsoever. Pessoa was my strongest selection I gotta be honest I wasn't happy with the ride you've got to get a better position from 7 than right out the back when you have a horse that gets further than the trip he's running over. Got too far back, somehow managed to end up wider out than the fav who was drawn 4 stalls further out, took in a tour of the Molineux around the last bend and got knocked side-wards coming down the straight. Kitaro Kich was the horse from the same form line also got too far back had to barge his way out of trouble before absolutely flying home he was also a little unlucky. The other one I'd mentioned Brother Mike ran terrible but I'd said the warning signs we're there at Southwell I was just hoping being back at Wolvo he'd show his form. Heavily punted by someone but to no avail. The winner was findable he was certainly one I'd considered he got the run of the race off the front end he'd banged in a respectable figure last time out when fading over further and the drop back in trip and the handy tactics paid dividends.

Ravenglass heavily punted into favouritism late despite being weak earlier in the day ran great no problems with the ride looked like it was coming through to win and found very little. Bagged the rail up the home straight as I'd mentioned it might help go through with his effort but he still seemed like he wanted to hang with the rail there and looked unbalanced in the final furlong. I'd wouldn't have found the winner with 3 darts! Long time all weather campaigner, running averagely looked completely in handicappers grip. 26 AW appearances and 2 wins before last night but this surprisingly was his first visit to the luvvly Wolverhamperton ! He seemed to like it.

Jimmy knocker. No complaints here either dropped out last slow start as I thought might be the case and although asked for effort a little late was rocketing through the field, he had a mountain to climb but looked like he might do it until he hit trouble and was snatched up. Definitely talented ( for the level) but he'll break a few hearts and burn a few fingers this one. Bibendum. Well Lewis Edmunds had a good night but in a bizarre move on this one decided not to make a bid for the front and make the running which looked easy enough to do and the horses best hope. Instead tried to settle him further back impossible in the first time blinkers and got him trapped out wide with no cover. The end! Would had a much better chance trying to settle him of the front end but he'll get dropped a few pounds and hopefully I'll catch him at a nice price somewhere down the line as he's flying under the radar.

So that's it for the horse racing until next week, I'm trying to keep it to one a week on two counts really. Firstly the way work is dropping off I might find myself unemployed for the first time in my life which whilst daunting isn't a huge problem as I wouldn't need to earn half as much as I do just to get by. That said I'm not that comfortable in life to the point I can still be doing my bollocks week in and week out with a trip to the job centre lurking in the not too distant future. I do sort of fancy living a Bukowski approach to employment of working all sorts of menial jobs and just get by just to meet lots of new people and get a few new stories. The other reason is the focus on rebuilding my health which is taking priority at the moment and touch wood it's going well I think I've turned the corner. I've still not been drinking, I'm not really missing it and I'm feeling really well in myself to the point that I'm worried I'll never drink again, what a horrific thought! I reckon that might completely ruin my life but we'll see.

Good luck for the rest of the week.
 
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Good news on the drinking front, mate. They do say 'one day at a time' but I'm guessing it's more like 'one minute at a time'.

Having said that, I very rarely do the AW because the standard of racing is so low and the runners are often very unpredictable characters so that you can never be assured that they run up to some of their best form.
The other thing, touching on our conversation about the state of racing. It was said that even with poor prize money, there are big fields. I have a feeling some of that inconsistency of running mentioned above is because trainers need to bet to keep afloat and, as a result, horses' merits are disguised to tool the best price for the future.

One of your races at Wolverhampton was won by Charlie Mason. He's been on my alerts since 25th May. I made a note thus:

25/05/24 Haydock Handicap (Class 5) (3yo) 6f Soft OR70
Although outpaced when they quickened 2f out, this one rallied well to give the impression that he’ll benefit from either blinds, 7f or both. At any rate, loves soft ground.

Well, last evening, at the 14th time of asking, he won at 4/1. In that time they've upped him to 7f and tried pieces and he's had his conditions to win but nothing. Why should he win yesterday and not before? There lies the problem, really. I have noted many low level AW horses in my time but don't bother much now - it's too frustrating and I'd lose money hand over fist.

Cheers Danny.
 
yorick said:
Good news on the drinking front, mate. They do say 'one day at a time' but I'm guessing it's more like 'one minute at a time'.

Having said that, I very rarely do the AW because the standard of racing is so low and the runners are often very unpredictable characters so that you can never be assured that they run up to some of their best form.
The other thing, touching on our conversation about the state of racing. It was said that even with poor prize money, there are big fields. I have a feeling some of that inconsistency of running mentioned above is because trainers need to bet to keep afloat and, as a result, horses' merits are disguised to tool the best price for the future.

One of your races at Wolverhampton was won by Charlie Mason. He's been on my alerts since 25th May. I made a note thus:

25/05/24 Haydock Handicap (Class 5) (3yo) 6f Soft OR70
Although outpaced when they quickened 2f out, this one rallied well to give the impression that he’ll benefit from either blinds, 7f or both. At any rate, loves soft ground.

Well, last evening, at the 14th time of asking, he won at 4/1. In that time they've upped him to 7f and tried pieces and he's had his conditions to win but nothing. Why should he win yesterday and not before? There lies the problem, really. I have noted many low level AW horses in my time but don't bother much now - it's too frustrating and I'd lose money hand over fist.

Cheers Danny.
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Appreciate the feedback Yorick. I meant to mention Charlie Mason in my review as he was another one I couldn't have picked out as he seemed to be in the handicappers grip. He was another barely seen at Wolverhampton he had one race there in his early 2y0 days. With hindsight it was the first time he'd been dropped back to 6f since he'd had the pieces on which had been having him run a bit lively over 7f. So your initial assessment of headgear over 6f was right in some respects even though it took some time to come to fruition. That said he still wouldn't have been an obvious choice yet he was heavily punted down to that 4/1 which backs up your other claim of at least someone was expecting a big run.

Yes the all weather is rife with shenanigans but so is lower grade jumps stuff what was that Evan Williams punt the other day 66/1 down to 9/4 on a horse who'd never raised a leg in its life. I tend not to go too far down the rabbit hole with it I'd seen Desert Orchid claiming he thought strong leader was a non jigger in the cleeve ffs ! A horse who'd pulled up in his previous run and since had an operation. Even in the top racing though you know dodgy things go on, Iroko the the other day in a Cheltenham handicap doubled in price before the off and was tenderly handled to say the least. We all know the craic! You also encounter problems in the jumps of really incorrect going descriptions, all and sundry from the press analysing the weekends action all week so that by race day half the value is gone. Races run at farcical gallops. The first part of the season wondering whats fit the second half figuring what goes on the better ground or which one of Willies 6 or Gordons 6 is the best. I also have a feeling there are certainly horses every weekend enetred to be withdrawn I've seen some strange punts on big priced horses for no reason mid Saturday afternoon down to a Rule 4 price and then withdrawn maybe altering place terms to boot (Whoops! the rabbit hole). A lot of people will say the All weather stuff is rife and that the form doesn't hold up but lets not pretend the rest of racing is a picnic for punters.

There are perils to the AW low grade stuff but I'm not taking the punting all that serious atm I'm enjoying the challenge of trying to get my head around something new and trying to keep consistent with the blog type thing. I usually start things and then go off and do something else but I'm enjoying the process of writing down my thoughts which doesn't come natural to me, I mean sometimes I go for a word and even spell check is like " I got nothing man!" . The betting side of it atm means very little, I mean don't get me wrong if I have it right off I'm sure I'll put the winnings to good use but that's it. It's more about doing something positive with my time and sometimes when you do that you get results that you don't expect. I've been back on here after the new year a couple of weeks posting. I've already in that time had someone approach me to say they've been enjoying my posts (which is staggering in itself) and out of that has sparked one of the most interesting conversations ( probably the wrong description) I've had in a long time, it's rare someone takes me by surprise these days but they have. They've even perked my interest in an area of the sport where I've had none before. Maybe if that leads to a new friendship at some point or even just somebody interesting to talk to online. It may well lead me into experiencing new areas of the sport then perhaps that's a bigger win than 3 on the trixie in the great scheme of things. Sometimes even when you lose you win its just a case of how you view it.
 
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You're absolutely correct about NH shenanigans, Dave. To be honest, I concentrate on staying chasers, from 3m upwards. I try to keep away from class 5 handicap chases, don't generally do hurdlers, and very seldom do I pick 2m chasers. But hey-ho, each to their own; I am quite au fait with those 3m+ chasers but there may be others who prefer hurdlers. I know Outsider just loves the sprint handicaps - whatever gets you there.
 
O.k so I have the displeasure of waiting in for the washer repair man today and although I've managed to get a gym and swim session in this morning at this time I normally like to go for a walk to get some air which helps to tame an unquiet mind. So already my frustration levels for a day which now feels like a scab half picked have me wearing a hole in the carpet pacing around like a distressed polar bear in a zoo. So my options, read a book, I'm far too buzzed up for that. Maybe lose the rest of the day in a tik tok wormhole which once you're in its like a tub of pringles of which you promised yourself you'd only have a few. Or I thought I could come and post a few random thoughts to the blog hoping it clears my mind. Hopefully the washer man turns up sooner rather than later and I can get out and about but until then this is my better option. A couple of warnings first of all there's no horse racing content in the following post. Also if you're easily offended ( it won't be that bad ) then read no further as when I'm in a frustrated mood there's little filter on what comes out. If you're easily offended and you read on through morbid curiosity please feel free to discuss anywhere you think I crossed a line as it'll help me read the room to which I write, part of why I prefer face to face rather than online engagement but here goes.

The gym.

I've trained on and off in my life never to any major standard and all different types of things and it helps a lot mentally. I've trained in a few spit and sawdust gyms with some big lads usually full of steroids, sniffing protein powder and eating chicken and broccoli 3 times a day in general I've always found guys who lift to be a decent bunch. I'm now at a leisure centre gym which has enough equipment but also has a pool so it's just easier to workout all under one roof. Now gyms in January are always a sight to behold as the new years resolution crew pour in, many new to training and you see to say the least them doing some very curious things that make no sense. You can see a fair bit of piss taking on social media about some of the strange things people do in their newly found workouts. Whilst I can't help but chuckle there is a more serious side to it. Gym's can be dangerous places if you don't know what you're doing and a decent spinal injury can change your life forever and even less serious injuries like torn knee ligaments or rotator cuffs can put your life on hold for a good while. Now me being me with good intentions, at certain times I've stepped in just to offer some advice on how to do something and not hurt themselves. That gets harder to do now as one I'm out of shape, who wants to listen to and old fat dude giving training advice ? But secondly people are harder to approach and especially women which has always been a no no unless they make first contact otherwise the other way around 9 times out of 10 its presumed you're for want of a better phrase trying to get a bit into them, no matter how honourable your intentions.

This is where things have now taken a turn for the worse, there is a growing trend for people to video themselves in the gym, luckily it's not happening too much in the gym where i'm at. There is also a growing trend of women videoing themselves but trying to capture men glancing at them and sort of trying to shame them as perverts. I dare say there are some old perverts ogling at girls half their age or even young enough to be their daughters/ granddaughters in some cases however I offer some slight defense for us lads who have forever gone to the gym for our mental sanity alone but are still human. I may get some stick for this as women should be able to wear what they want to wear and I get gym wear can be tight but surely there has to be some sort of line ? When the flaps are on display its a problem. I'll attempt to draw where I think the line should be and feel free if you lean to the left or to the right of it. If when you're on the bench press I can roll a marble down your slot and land it right into your golden gateway without removing your bottoms then you need to go home and get a pair of fucking jogging bottoms ! There that's my line and I think its a fair one. There is a time and place to see your vaginas and it's not in a gym.

Now maybe you think this a sexist view, maybe you think I'm a sexual deviant for noticing but I assure you nothing could be further from the truth as again for want of a better phrase I doubt I'd have a decent f@*k in me these days I'd probably slip a disc, pop a hip or get cramp mid thrust. In my current shape I'd actually feel sorry for anyone I crawled on top of, it'd be like having a hairy silverback gorilla puffing and panting all over you. My conscience just wouldn't let me do that to another human being. I more look at them as I did my daughter when she was a teen when she'd come down the stairs in a short skirt and a boob/boom tube whatever they are called and in my most serious dad voice utter the typical "you're not going out dressed like that!

I'm going to attempt to carry out a social experiment in the name of equality and fairness but to do this I have to paint a picture. If ever I piss any of you off ( fairly likely ) but I mean to the point where you feel you need to make a Voodoo doll of which to torture me with the you'd need only a handful of material. An apple ( the body) 4 toothpicks ( arms and legs) and a cherry ( my head) if ever you feel the need to add that special little extra part to add even more excruciating pain then I'm not quite sure what you'd use but for scale purposes only it's somewhere between the size of a hamster's and a gnats and it's only shrivelling more with age. I'm sure there must have been some already made as it's the only way I can explain the random shifts stabbing pains I get a new one every day. Where was I ? Oh yes the experiment I'm wondering if i donned a borat style Mankini to the gym tomorrow and film the experience whether I'd get a few funny looks from girls perving on me as my hairy acorns dangle one either side of my centre strap whilst doing my squats. I wonder how long it'd be even though I've been a regular there it would be before I was removed for being inappropriately dressed.

You have been saved by the washer man. He's arrived so I'm off out in a bit I might post the rest later. I'm also gonna consider buying shares in apples, toothpicks and cherries.

Over and out.
 
I found instead of an apple , a tennis ball full haribos worked best , round hairy and full of sweets, can you feel me stabbing you with my biro at work after the teams call I've just had??? ;)

Personally I have no time for stupid bints at the gym just there for the pose and filming themselves trying to kid themselves that anyone online gives a f
 
I started going to the gym a couple of years ago as metabolism caught up with age. I have always kept fairly fit and of a reasonable shape purely down to being active and riding/looking after horses. But its crept up so when a friend (in her 70s) suggested I join her and another down at the gym for "weights" I thought I'd give it a go. Doesn't hurt with the old bone density either. Initially I did an hour once a week whereby we followed the heavily tatooed lesbian gym owner/personal trainer around being told what and how to lift. It was more a case of laughter exercise and I'm sure the gym bunnies found us highly awful! But I soon realised I needed to more than they could so I opted for full membership which includes two classes a week and unlimited time there. Its only my local gym (owner though scary is absolutely lovely and runs it with her wife who runs the classes), so its fairly basic in comparison to most but its popular and what's nice nobody judges you. If you are there, its considered "Good on you for making the effort"

So I do aerobics on a Monday evening followed by boxercise on a Friday (or girlie boxing as friends say...!). I do the horses every morning so that is plenty but come the summer when they are turned out again I will probably go back to doing weights mid week and probably a bit of tennis as well. I was spurred on by the thought of my 40 year reunion last summer (I went to a boys school in the 6th form) and needing to look better than Sara Edwards (who was actually stick thin and I felt loads better as she looked ten years older)...not that I'm vain or anything.

The whole gym thing for the Yoof of Today is odd. There are plenty of guys using the weights but most of them are permanently on their phone so they are just sitting on the apparatus rather than using it... Occasionally you get a female gym bunny in but they seem to be rare in my little town which is a relief so the rest of us are just middle aged bods who are grateful we don't have to look at lithe lycra formed goddesses. I must say I find the whole "I'm going to expose myself as much as I can but if you so much look in my direction I will sue you for sexual harassment and ruin your life" thing most bizarre. The media whips up things into a frenzy so quickly and has just made this wokery worse. I do feel for guys at times as they do get hammered for nothing. My feeling is if you don't want the obvious attention then don't dress like a sl*t!
 
Gotta be honest Jinny I dress like a complete slut but still can't get no attention I really don't know what I'm doing wrong :) .

Changing goals.

I suppose down the years I had some pretty strange goals in life from hoping I'd grow up to be Bruce lee, then a footballer, then a rockstar, shortly before leaving school I was thinking me and a mate of mine we're gonna be the next Kray brothers. Boxing was another dream shortly after leaving school but to be fair I became obsessed with boxing and the all the history of it and I did have a fair few amateur bouts something I'd highly recommend for any young lad to do unfortunately my love for drugs and alcohol cut that short. Then at some point in my late twenties/ early thirties I thought I'd be a professional gambler but when it came to the crunch I had responsibilities and did the boring sensible things with my ill gotten gains rather than take it to another level. It was probably for the best looking back but I still wonder what if. Tbh all of those things faded away as I become a Dad and the happiest days of my life we're when my daughter was between the age of 4 and 13 that period of my life was pure magic. My worst days even taking into account my completely horrific youth was outweighed by the period after my daughter turned 13 my only goal then became trying to protect her, mainly from herself. I'd never really suffered with stress in my life and the 5 year period between her 13th and 18th birthday pushed me to the absolute brink of insanity. Overnight she'd turned into some sort of Psychopathic demon but as if by magic shortly after her 18th birthday she returned back to normal , a bit of a lazy useless lump ,but loving, caring thoughtful and she's been a good kid ever since.

So I've been fairly goalless for the last few years which is what led to me drinking the nights away as I had nothing better to do and Tbh I'm still not sure that I do. The obvious thing is I want to travel a bit more and as said I did start getting around the racecourses a bit more last year to be continued this year. The one thing have noticed whilst I've been at the gym apart super tight clothing of the youth is a few of the old girls and boys in there. I've known a few of them for years and they are in there every day like clockwork. I've chatted to some of them a few times and got to know a few of them. 3 of them are over 80 years old. June, one of the women is 82 and does an hour on the walking on the treadmill every morning and a good lot of that she does on incline. There's a guy who swims half an hour solid front crawl every morning of the week he's the eldest at 84. Then there's my favourite guy he's a mere 81 and he comes in every morning and starts his day with some push ups. I first bumped into him about 15 years ago at a different leisure centre just after he'd retired I'll be honest he did probably 20 of the worst push ups you'd ever see back then, and they've got even worse with age but the best thing about it is he never goes to the proper floor area he just goes in front of the treadmills wherever the elder ladies are to perform, gets up, puffs his chest out a bit, and with a little spring in his step gives the girls a smile and half a wink.

At one time I wanted to go in a gym try and out lift everyone push myself as far as possible. Now I'm looking and thinking these guys have had the right idea. Imagine being 84 and still swinging. I'd never given much thought to getting old the way I've lived my life I always thought it was like a live fast, die young leave a good looking corpse type of deal although I've never known anyone get better looking after death. But thinking about it if I look at the likes of the Stones, Ozzy Ozbourne, Steve Tyler and the rest of them they all seem to be going strong and like I did a fair bit but yeah i reckon they probably did a tad more...just a tad haha. So what if ? What if I could make it to 80 plus we're talking another 35-40 years on the planet. With the daughter not planning on having kids, grandkids seems out of the question so thinking what I'm going to do with that time is pretty daunting. The first 25 years of my life mostly a write off. The next twenty I've made some giant strides but still getting most stuff wrong along the way. It makes me wonder now I've broken the back of the difficult bits of life what I could achieve in the coming years with a bit of extra wisdom and putting in some effort I suppose anything might be possible. I'm still a bit directionless atm and undecided but I think this year I'm just going to do the basics get my health back where it should be that's main priority and try and stack a bit of dough up if my job holds up long enough. Hopefully some inspiration will strike at some point as to what I'm going to do.

Wealth

I think I've said more than once that the best definition I've ever heard for being rich is to spend as much time doing things you "want" to be doing and as little time doing the things that you "have" to be doing. I think that's brilliant. Adding to that though I think a decent metric for how rich you are is if you won a billion pounds how many things in your life would you not want to change and when I had a quick tally up there was a fair bit of my life I wouldn't want to change. I think things i could change was I wouldn't be doing the job I'm doing. I would probably do a lot of the same things i.e swim, gym, walking, eating good food but I'd probably want to be doing them in a different location somewhere by the sea or , somewhere warmer through the winter or just somewhere more picturesque. There would be a fair few people in my life I wouldn't want to change. There are things I do like have a massage once a week which I'd probably change to once a day. And I'd certainly get a dog. Perhaps by process of elimination seeing the things that people want to keep in their lives makes it easier to see what's missing.

People may think these sorts of discussions have either no place or aren't about racing or betting but for me like the signature say's "How are you gonna win if you're not right within ?" . I think people sometimes gamble are just like dogs chasing there tail with no direction I know I certainly was for years. People who probably wouldn't know what to do with a big win if they won it. How many gamblers make bad decisions they do something they know to be stupid before they do it, they lose. They know what they did wrong and then they go and make exactly the same mistake again next week. I'm not sure if getting your aims straight, finding some purpose and getting yourself in good health will make you a better punter and make better decisions but it can't do any harm.
 
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