Diary of a fool

Danny

Danny

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Danny

Thread 'Punting advice'

I've come to I suppose a bit of a crossroads in life. I turned 41 last week, my daughter is all grown up, I've just finished my mortgage on my humble abode, I still have a day job ( although still currently furloughed) that i detest to levels beyond anyone's comprehension so the scene is set to have a midlife crisis. Over the years I've been so busy working, dealing with family life, looking after a child and to some extent parents and certainly in laws ( or outlaws as I prefer to name them) that just getting through life has seemed like pushing treacle up a hill. I've always thought that...

So I was thinking I hadn't really been around since I packed the game up properly in March/April 2019. But apparently judging by my old posts I've made the odd cameo since. Rather than post a mega introduction again the link is a thread from a previous moment of, I should get back into racing. For those who read it before they need not bother again anyone who wasn't around can if they want too although its a lot of waffle on my part.

So where have I been and whats happened since then. Well for one reason or another the motivation to carry on punting took a whack when there was an incident where I lost my exchange account all a mix up but its gone for good. There was also a back injury that completely through me off. I've struggled with all sorts of addiction down the years and a very up and down headspace I hate to use modern terms of addictive personality, depression, adhd or on the spectrum as isn't everybody these days but lets put it this way I'm undiagnosed but I know there is definitely something wrong with me :) So anyway part of my coping strategy has always been exercise whether weight training, swimming or walking I'm never better than when I'm doing some sort of exercise regularly. The back injury I had was fairly severe and took a long time to partially recover from. The diagnosis from the doc after viewing the MRI was basically my discs we're that worn he'd expect to have seen them in a 65 year old labourer I was 42 at the time. When I asked him what i could do he said nothing they're not going to grow back you'll just have to be careful. At this point I think i returned to my other coping mechanism, Alcohol. Basically I've had a few years doing what I've had to do i.e work and family stuff then just basically saying fuck it and drinking the night away. Tbh its not been a terrible life apart from I've piled on about 4 stone. I've never felt ill effects from it I'm still up bright and early for work but one of the worst probleams I found with it that it's a complete motivation killer to do anything of purpose.

So over the last 4 years I've learned how to manage my back issue regular visits to a chiropractor, regular massages ( my favourite hour of the week ) and Ice packs always on hand. I've started swimming again and doing some sort of weight/resistance training although the weights are embarrassing and the days of the big lifts squats and deadlifts are a distant memory but the effect mentally is the same, I'm feeling better. The booze, well, I'd promised myself a last blowout in Gran canaria over Christmas but despite being all inclusive it didn't really materialise and a drank a lot less than I'd been doing week to week over here. I've said I'm easily addicted to things but Alcohol seems exempt to that as I've had periods in my life where I've drank very heavily and periods where I've nothing for periods of time. I haven't had a drink since I got back bar a couple when i was out for a meal. I haven't been craving a beer or having any withdrawals which is incredible given the amount I've been consuming over a fair period of time. I'm not giving it up completely but I've just made the decision to stop drinking in the house and I don't go out very often because...uggh people!

The other thing that changed is my job. I'm still at the same company but landed a role as a fitters mate and haven't looked back since.I work with an amazing bunch of lads all daft as brushes and we spend most the day laughing gaffers sound too. I've gone on shifts 4 on 4 off permanent days which is brilliant as taking my holiday days into account I only work about 3 days per week all year round and for someone who's been working 6's and 7's most of his life it's nice to have free time. My money has almost doubled in the last 3 years also so its win, win. The only problem is after the company has been been flat out with work since the recession of 2008/9 a brief pause during covid but then full blast since. The last 9 months though work has dropped right off and things are looking worrying as the are for anything related to the Automotive industry all across Europe so a very rocky spell but hopefully we can ride the storm and I can carry on loving life at work.

What's the purpose of the thread then and with the return to horse race betting ? If I'm completely honest I need to apply myself to something, I have a lot of spare time on my hands which is something I've always dreamed of but never had. Like everything we've dreamed of sometimes the reality isn't as nice and for someone like me the Devil will always make work for idle hands. I've always walked a line between normal life and complete madness I certainly settled down whilst my daughter was growing up but now shes grown I'm at loose end again. In my time I've been a petrol sniffer, gone day drinking with the homeless and spent plenty of years stoned and there is only one thing for sure and that's if I don't apply myself to something and keep busy there are only more unchartered heights of disgrace lying a head.

So is there any life left in the old dog can finally I emerge from the longest mid life crisis in history ? Just thinking about it if I refer to myself as an old dog at 45 when to a lot of the guys on here to whom I just be a young whippersnapper then please understand. You've heard of the expression " he must of had a tough paper round" well mine was in the Helmand Province and they made me where a high viz. Think of it in car terms, a lot of you guys are like old classics, well looked after. I'm more like a clapped out ford cortina with 200'000 on the clock, parts falling off dents in every panel , run on the wrong type of fuel and don't even mention my gear stick its been sat on, kicked, knee'd, elbowed, punched, spat on, chewed and locked in a pair of step of one's never to see the light of day again.

Once more I got distracted the aim of the thread is firstly to keep me occupied and rekindle my interest in punting. I've given up any thoughts for now anyway of punting seriously. As I mentioned on another thread I am however interested in the fools errand of trying to land one last big payday and this is partly a thread that will cover my pursuit of that but also the odd personal update as I battle through life. Writing does not come natural to me as I'm not the brightest spark but I will do my best to make posts readable. Finding winners also does not come naturally and I am fairly rusty. ( Can't write or pick winners...starts horse racing blog) . I don't consider myself to be a tipster so follow anything at you're own peril. Also I'm blessed with the attention span of a gnat and the memory of a goldfish so getting my thoughts accurately into print is always difficult so there will be times I make mistakes regards form and stuff feel free to point them out if i appear to be talking like i know what I'm on about but I'm in fact talking bollocks. Hopefully I'll stick to it for more than 5 minutes, hopefully we can have a few laughs along the way and who knows we might even get a happy ending.

Welcome to the Diary of a fool.
 
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Well a refreshing honest account and one that will resonate with many. And you do yourself a disservice saying that you write badly. You don’t! It may fall over itself at times but it’s interesting and I got to the end thinking I knew a lot more about you.

I think you wouldn’t be normal if you hadn’t got to 45 without a whole heap of “experiences” good or bad and that would apply to most of us so you don’t need to be apologetic. Life can take some steering through and there’s no manual really that comes with it. I’ve had some truly horrendous times but they are balanced out with some amazing ones too. I’ve met good and bad people alike....it’s just working out which ones are harmful to you and which you will tolerate.

Your addiction issues do sound like the potential to be ADHD related. I say this as someone who was close to a guy who I’m 100% convinced was (my German Ward has it so I have first hand experience) and there are similarities especially the addiction side. Sadly every Celeb and his wife has jumped on the bandwagon as an excuse for their poor behaviour so getting a genuine diagnosis is nigh on impossible.

But you’re a welcome addition here and most of the time it’s a fun place...with only the occasional tantrum and “handbags at dawn” (you know who you are!)
 
I was trying to put a multiple together for tomorrow for this but have only really found one that I like at a price and that's 1.52 Southwell King of York 16/1 top price or 14's with the 4 place firms. No complicated reasoning here if you look through his form 7F at Southwell is his thing and any reproduction of his last 2 runs over CD would see him go close here from a lower mark.

Plenty of others with chances I see where giggsy is going with Reputation good 2nd to City Cyclone who bolted up again from 7lb higher the other night, Anif would probably come into it as well off their last run at Southwell . Urban Dandy is probably the biggest danger in my eyes and although I could make a case for half a dozen of these, King of York at the prices is probably the best bet i reckon.

As said I'm only really interested in putting things together for a big payday from here on in but obviously there will be days like this and I'm not just going to chuck anything to try and make a multiple up but if i see anything I think is half decent I'll post them in the blog and you can make what you will of them.
 
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Cheers lads its funny how they run a bit better when I haven't backed them and tbh it'll be more luck than judgement atm. Its a new thing going into the AW racing as I've never really bothered with it or liked it bar the odd session down Wolvo as its be my local track. I know most the guys on here are fans of the National hunt game as am I at heart and that's still the case but there's no real correlation between liking the racing and trying to land a big pay day. I've decided to switch codes punting wise for the next few months at least as I think it's going to be, at least once I wrap my head around it less work. In all honesty Len I think there will be a cold day in hell before I achieve the jedi level AW skills of Andy and i'm certainly not trying to compete. In fact I will probably always give his selections a second look first as I'd be an idiot not too.

King of york ran alright he's sort of caught between trips isn't he? Run him over 7f looks like he wants a mile run him over a mile he looks like he wants 7f. As this thread progresses you'll probably here me criticise rides fairly regularly and just to show I'm fair Dale swift has given him an absolute peach today a simple ride but a peach. Got a good position and got into him plenty early enough which when you've got a a horse who gets the mile to some extent is exactly what you want see. Couldn't of asked for more from the saddle. I commented earlier on on Number crunchers thread about the early money for Soames Forsyth as being strange as I thought he was short on the book as it was. A good performance over a mile here last time with a decent figure but his previous attempts here over 7f being so poor had put me off. Early money never worries me as that's the fools like you or I but I always say late money is smart money and when the plunge continued up until the off I think the writing was on the wall. Whether he's just benefitted from that 2nd breathing op or whether we file it under the header "they knew" is open for debate. Personally I didn't see it coming but then I've plenty to learn about the murky world of punting on the sand.

Anyway, hopefully I'll be able to find a few of these types to put together at some point for attempt 1, I'm thinking realistically e/w trixies are going to be the way to go when playing multiples the less bets the better. E/w trixies at big prices can be an absolute heartbreaker of a bet as I've kicked them off before with 33/1 shots and 25/1 shots and then walked a way empty handed so it certainly tests the mental fortitude.

On a personal level I've stayed off the drink, I've had a positive day today gym, swim and a good 6 mile walk which is in stark contrast to the last couple days where I've hung around the house in my sweats, surfing tinterweb, tiktok'ing my life away living mainly on a diet of cheese on toast, bags of Haribo and coffee. Back to work tomorrow for 4 shifts so fairly possible I'll see you on the other side of that. Be lucky and have a good weekend.
 
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With my moves it looks more like a seizure tbf. Me having an only fans account is probably the only way I could spend my time and actually make less than I do punting horses.
 
I've come up with a few for today not exactly the bet I had in mind but a few cropped up at bigger prices than I thought.


5.00 Wolverhampton Kalganov + Berkshire Phantom

Firstly there are a few here with a lot more obvious chances H key Lalis won great last time blazing a trail over a mile drops back to 7f here he'd also blazed a trail at Chelmsford before that over a mile and faded late on he won't have much competition for the lead here maybe only fools will keep him company but he'll be difficult to peg back if they give him enough rope not sure he's quite as effective on Tapeta though. So Kalganov comes here woefully out of form and his trainer is also having a terrible time of things 14% rtf and non of his runners even making the frame over the last 14 days. I'm hoping Kalganov who went off at an Sp of 125/1 last time out might turn it around for him,not quite that price this time but is still rank outsider. Last time he was at Wolverhampton wss this time last year he was running off a mark of 77 and was beaten 2.5 lengths producing an RPR of 81 in a CL4. He continued with plenty of solid efforts on the AW weather off marks of 77 and 76. He's then gone on be beaten out of sight in 3 turf runs during the spring . After a long break he returned in December without his usual cheek pieces and was well beaten. Next time out the pieces returned but he was unusually dropped out the back where as he's normally a prominent runner. He took a keen grip as he can do normally and made some late headway, not very eye catching really under what looked a very weak/ not knocked about ride. It was a least enough to show me he's not one of these finished sorts who bob up and down on the spot when asked for effort. As a result of 3 poor turf runs and these 2 efforts on the sand which can be excused to some extent he returns to Wolverhampton 13lb lower and a drop in class compared to his 2.5 length defeat. Drawn in one isn't ideal but with only HKL and only fools prominent runners there is a chance if they want to to get him a decent position in behind from where I'm sure he'd fair much better I think we'll know our fate early it he's dropped out the rear again. I thought Berkshire Phantom would be amongst the market leaders I was shocked to see him at 16/1 on the overnights (I've only got 12's as I'm trying not to take overnight prices account protection and all that) . So I've had to include him he drops back to 7f here after a decent run over the extended mile here which came after a break was a very decent run in the context of this race and he's entitled to come on for it. His 7f form at the track is there for all to see there are no great secrets here on his runs last February over course and distance he's fully entitled to be in the mix and I had to include him.


5.30 Wolverhampton Walk the Moon


This race has given me a bit of a headache and in general I think I want to stay away from contests over further than 10F here because a lot of the time they are run at farcical gallops. I've been giving a few races the once over in the week and one I fancied the other night to go well here was Sophsoc at the time he was about 40/1 and there was a 2/5 fav he was heavily punted and beaten last of 6. He's been campaigned at further than 12F of late and he was dropping back to that trip that night which was part of the appeal as he has decent record in 12F races here. I found it interesting that he was being turned out so quickly after such a disappointing show. He's a 9yo and this would be the quickest he's ever been turned out again after a run. Twice before he's been turned out for a run in under a week and yielded one win and the other time was another decent run. Only trouble is on his last run he's forced the pace as he should have done over a trip this short but he folded like a cheap tent and got beat 23l I'm amazed that he's not 40/1 again and he's opened up 10's. At 40's I might of chanced my arm but no way at 10's. Another trail of thought I had was most the field have been around a while and its a pretty terrible level so one who's a little less exposed like Hawa Jumeriah might be capable of more. His form as a 3yo was pretty pants but he's been gelded since then and his seasonal debut at Kempton was a big step up on his prior performances very keen after a break went well for a long way and tired up quickly late on. So not a lot to go at but he's entitled to come on for that run and he wouldn't have to come on that much to play a role here especially if he settles a bit better. Over a slightly longer trip and around these sharp bends given how keen he was I'd want a a bigger price than he is to take the chance he's one I'll be keeping an eye on though. The one I sort of turned my nose up at early on is the one that's probably ended up being the one I like most at the current prices and that's Walk the moon. On the face of it his recent 2nd over CD to subsequent winner High court Judge looks enough to give him a shout but I had watched the race earlier in the week and wasn't that impressed it was a muddling affair and High court Judge put big sectionals in to win from a bad position. But a couple of things I hadn't taken into consideration was how keen Walk the moon was, he finished the race out very well he was coming off the back of a break and a wind op. It was much improved form from anything he'd done prior and he'd be entitled to have come on for that. I think he'd also benefit from a truer run race. There must be some hope of that here as Max of stars likes to get on with things and make use of his Stamina and if Sophsoc runs and did what he did the other night then we could get a better run race which I think would suit Walk the moon as he got caught a bit flatfooted when the pace quickened it may be he didn't like trying to quicken around the bend as he picked up well once on the straight. I'm only 3 places on this :( there are 4 place bookies available so he's probably booked for 4th spot on that basis only.



6.00 Wolverhampton Gogo Yubari + Not just yet

Tyke for me would be an obvious favourite could well of won the other night set a strong pace but unfortunately off an already strong pace the jockey turned the afterburners on a touch too early and he got picked off late on, well clear of the rest and goes off the same mark here. Is it a big ask 7 days later to try and reproduce that effort I think so. Professor tickle was in behind and should have no chance of turning it around. Beauzon fav that day ran 7f instead of 6f pegged on the wide outside all the way around. Should get a better position from stall 1 and his best form has every chance of winning but even though pegged outside he'd looked a little off the boil the time before. He's closely matched on a run over CD with Not just yet. I think Beauzon will fare better this time from stall 1 and I'd expect him to be prominent along with Tyke and professor tickle going from the front end this could turn up into a bit of a tear up and set it up for a hold up horse like Not just yet. Disappointing over CD last time but himself was trapped outside with no cover so for me that's excusable his 2 penultimate runs here would probably be enough to feature. As said closely matched with Beauzon if not weighted to reverse and double the price and the race will likely set up to suit. Em Jay Kay and Mumayaz are both on marks higher than they've ever won off and they've been around a while and had plenty of goes. That brings me to Gogo. Gogo has been in pretty consitent form been over 5f more recently and running o.k. 5 runs and 2 wins at Wolvo and 3 other respectable runs. Won her only try over 6f here off a mark of 67. Goes off the same mark today with Morgan cole taking 5lb off. Good draw in stall 2. Holds an obvious I was hoping for a slightly bigger price than 7/2 but I think she's the most likely winner.

8 x e/w Doubles
4 x e/w Trebles

Although I'm sticking mainly to multiples in search for big paydays the first race was the race I'm probably most hopeful for today and given the prices of the 2 selections I've had a go with a little 4 horse attempt at a combi tricast/trifecta and have added the 2 prominent runner HK lails and Only fools to the 2 selections for that.

On a personal level another fairly good week still off the fags and the booze and have eaten a bit better and for the first time in a long time my weight has come down a bit only 4lb but its a start, long way to go about another 3 and a half stone to roughly where I know my weight needs to be but I'll keep plodding along the load road. I've another 3 days left off work so planning on getting plenty of swimming, gym sessions and walks in. No crazier places than gyms in January. Will also be putting a bit of time in catching up on all things sand racing as its all new to me this is also going to be a long journey and a steep learning curve.

Best of luck with your own bets today.
 
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Apologies if some of the prices changed whilst I was writing that out it appears the markets have completely changed. Berkshire Phantom has been bashed into 9/2 but tbh its a double edged sword as it buggers up my tricast attempt and that's barely worthwhile unless the big priced one frames now. Also have to say Beauzon has drifted out from 5's to 20's if I could of got that price about him at the time think I'd of had to include him too. Can't get used to how volatile these AW markets are. Oh well let the cards fall how they may.
 
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