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The 2025 Derby

Ian_Davies said:
Err, I would like to think that you know that I know THAT, Maurice! 😂
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Obviously, yes. I should have added that we don't know yet if softer ground would inconvenience the class horses. Some might prefer it. We won't know until we know. Again, you obviously know that but it just sounded to me like we were comparing Midak to Yahoo in Desert Orchid's Gold Cup.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
I really feel a 'Gun to your head, what wins the Derby' thread might be needed here, but I can't bring myself to start it, as I've still got four on my shortlist. 🤣
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Not that kind of race this year, not least because it's not a cut and dried settled spell of weather.

If Epsom dodges the rain, and it's actually Good ground, Ruling Court could yet win it.

But if there's the 1983-style deluge well, it was getting dark by the time that year's 2,000 Guineas winner Lomond completed the course. 😂
 
Desert Orchid said:
it just sounded to me like we were comparing Midak to Yahoo in Desert Orchid's Gold Cup.
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Love it. 😂

The thing about me Maurice, as I suspect you've long since noticed, is that I'm very careful in my choice of words, and I'm also very literal (except when I'm being tongue in cheek! 😂).

If I was comparing Midak to Yahoo, you can rest assured I would say so, and in scenarios when people (not you) respond to me with stuff like: "Are you saying xxx, then?" I inevitably respond with: "I'm saying what I'm saying, no more and no less. I say what I mean and I mean what I say." 😂

Ian don't do inferring or implying, Ian says what he feckin thinks. 😂

(Ian also has an annoying habit of referring to himself in the third person during absurd tongue-in-cheek rants like this one). 😂
 
And if I've told you once I must have told you a million times I don't exaggerate...

(Except for comic effect.)

Any way, the RP going report this morning is saying 'Good, good to soft in places'.

Maybe the 'places' are in the outer Hebrides.
 
Cracking - interesting (to me anyway) to see the stick reading this morning.

It's about to start raining there again apparently, with up to 5mm expected today and possibly considerably more during Saturday.
 
.there are 3 stalls that have never produced the winner 2,11 and 16
And I fancy all 3.
Pride of arran,tornado alert and Stanhope garden.
 
Having seen how the Oaks panned out I now feel I have to accept that TLIW is not going to win the Derby.

Delacroix's dosage profile is borderline okay (DP = 3-8-4-8-1 (24) DI = 1.18 CD = 0.17) but his striding pattern is more that of an 8-10f horse. He's obviously won at 10f so that trip isn't an issue. I won't be surprised if it turns out he doesn't quite get home.

I now suspect TLIW is being aimed at Ascot and then maybe an autumn campaign, maybe the Arc and America.

Edit - I've now taken 33/1 TLIW for the Arc. Should he go close tomorrow that price will shorten.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Having seen how the Oaks panned out I now feel I have to accept that TLIW is not going to win the Derby.

Delacroix's dosage profile is borderline okay (DP = 3-8-4-8-1 (24) DI = 1.18 CD = 0.17) but his striding pattern is more that of an 8-10f horse. He's obviously won at 10f so that trip isn't an issue. I won't be surprised if it turns out he doesn't quite get home.

I now suspect TLIW is being aimed at Ascot and then maybe an autumn campaign, maybe the Arc and America.

Edit - I've now taken 33/1 TLIW for the Arc. Should he go close tomorrow that price will shorten.
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Kevin Blake is on the same wavelength re Delacroix:

Kevin Blake | At The Races

Kevin takes a methodical approach to weighing-up this year's leading contenders for the Derby via the use of striding analysis.
www.attheraces.com
 
There's 2 I keep coming back to - Pride of Arras and Lambourn.

My reservation with Pride of Arras is if the rain comes as he's never experienced soft ground yet in either of his 2 starts.

Lambourn has won on soft ground, albeit over a shorter trip, but he needed every yard of the Chester Vase win last time out, so you'd imagine he will be there or there abouts. Just not sure how the race will be run after the rather 'soft' finish aboard Whirl today.
 
I'm waiting to see what rain actually materialises - some forecasts saying 9mm now, which, while still significant, is half of what earlier apocalyptic predictions were saying.
 
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Slim said:
You don't need a three page essay to know that TLIW is a dubious stayer beyond 10f. He'll end up winning the Juddmonte at York for my money.
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His dosage figures suggest 12f will be spot on for him: DP = 1-3-17-3-0 (24) DI = 1.09 CD = 0.0

His striding pattern suggests just shy of that but he's one of two class horses in the race - the other is Ruling Court - and the only real reservation I have is that Moore has looked likely to spurn him for some time, which to me means the Derby has never really been the plan.

If 8-10f is the profile for their breeding operation then it makes sense to wait until later in the season to let the handbrake off.
 
He's third choice tomorrow from what I hear. I wouldn't back him at any price. I'd suspect he'll be seen next over 10f.
 
Gaz's Way De Solzen said:
There's 2 I keep coming back to - Pride of Arras and Lambourn.

My reservation with Pride of Arras is if the rain comes as he's never experienced soft ground yet in either of his 2 starts.

Lambourn has won on soft ground, albeit over a shorter trip, but he needed every yard of the Chester Vase win last time out, so you'd imagine he will be there or there abouts. Just not sure how the race will be run after the rather 'soft' finish aboard Whirl today.
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Same here.
 
Gaz's Way De Solzen said:
There's 2 I keep coming back to - Pride of Arras and Lambourn.

My reservation with Pride of Arras is if the rain comes as he's never experienced soft ground yet in either of his 2 starts.

Lambourn has won on soft ground, albeit over a shorter trip, but he needed every yard of the Chester Vase win last time out, so you'd imagine he will be there or there abouts. Just not sure how the race will be run after the rather 'soft' finish aboard Whirl today.
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GL - a New Bay should surely handle the going?
 
It looks like there was about 3mm rain overnight and now it's a question of do the forecast thunderstorms materialise and, if so, is it before the race.
 


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