• REGISTER NOW!! Why? Because you can't do much without having been registered!

    At the moment you have limited access to view all discussions - and most importantly, you haven't joined our community. What are you waiting for? Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join Join Talking Horses here!

The 2025 Derby

Coach miguel said:
Word is they have had loads of niggles with tliw. I wish they had done what they did with st Nicholas Abbey. Just give the horse time to get over it's issues. All the data say he's a miler so no wonder he's looked poor in both runs. Delacroix showed so much speed in the Derby trial they must have had doubts about stamina especially with its breeding. Lambourn clocked a rapid last furlong at chester,as did lazy gruff so I wasn't surprised the were in the top 3. The evidence was all there.
Click to expand...

His next run will be the Juddmonte.
 
The lesson for me is not to nail your colours to the mast too early. The hindsight analysis seems pretty simple - the race was choc full of doubtful stayers who might have got away with it on decent ground, but who were found out on the underfoot conditions. If anyone confined their analysis to the morning of the race most of them would have been crossed out and as Coach Miguel said earlier, the first two would have been on the remaining short list. Hindsight is a wonderful thing!
 
Lordan knew he wasn't riding delacroix so he was delighted to get on Lambourn. Same as the oaks. He wanted to ride whirl. Was meant to be I guess.
 
Coach miguel said:
Word is they have had loads of niggles with tliw. I wish they had done what they did with st Nicholas Abbey. Just give the horse time to get over it's issues. All the data say he's a miler so no wonder he's looked poor in both runs. Delacroix showed so much speed in the Derby trial they must have had doubts about stamina especially with its breeding. Lambourn clocked a rapid last furlong at chester,as did lazy gruff so I wasn't surprised the were in the top 3. The evidence was all there.
Click to expand...
Guy on nick luck yesterday said tliw was just getting clear of terrible ringworm. So not only was he way beyond his comfort zone,he had a rushed prep for the Derby and bad ringworm. I hope they write of the summer and look maybe at the breeders cup. If it wasn't the Derby I doubt he would have ran on Saturday.
 
As we all surely know, the racing media don't get much right (they'd be betting for a living instead if they did) and they're at their most ridiculous when a big race doesn't follow their script and they are trying to make sense of it afterwards.

The are no "bad" Derbys - but some are a LOT better than others.

And every year the race gets a bit more like the Belmont (when it's actually at Belmont) in the USA in the sense it's a 1m4f race largely contested by colts barely bred to stay 1m2f, never mind 1m4f.

In an era of overwatering, climate change-driven unseasonal rainfall and a breeding industry that no longer regards 1m4f as the quintessential distance for a racehorse, backing a horse that actually properly stays 1m4f might not be a bad idea.

You might end up on a slow boat, but at least it will still be moving forwards in the final furlong. 😂
 
Last edited:
Ian_Davies said:
As we all surely know, the racing media don't get much right (they'd be betting for a living instead if they did) and they're at their most ridiculous when a big race doesn't follow their script and they are trying to make sense of it afterwards.

The are no "bad" Derbys - but some are a LOT better than others.

And every year the race gets a bit more like the Belmont (when it's actually at Belmont) in the USA in the sense it's a 1m4f race largely contested by colts barely bred to stay 1m2f, never mind 1m4f.

In an era of overwatering, climate change-driven unseasonal rainfall and a breeding industry that no longer regards 1m4f as the quintessential distance for a racehorse, backing a horse that actually properly stays 1m4f might not be a bad idea.

You might end up on a slow boat, but at least it will still be moving forwards in the final furlong. 😂
Click to expand...

You speak about the racing media yet you write TedTalk replies saying absolutely nothing.
 
barjon said:
The lesson for me is not to nail your colours to the mast too early. The hindsight analysis seems pretty simple - the race was choc full of doubtful stayers who might have got away with it on decent ground, but who were found out on the underfoot conditions. If anyone confined their analysis to the morning of the race most of them would have been crossed out and as Coach Miguel said earlier, the first two would have been on the remaining short list. Hindsight is a wonderful thing!
Click to expand...

It's refreshing to see someone with a good betting take on here. There was no point even considering a bet in the Derby until the day of market.
 
Coach miguel said:
Guy on nick luck yesterday said tliw was just getting clear of terrible ringworm. So not only was he way beyond his comfort zone, he had a rushed prep for the Derby and bad ringworm. I hope they write of the summer and look maybe at the breeders cup. If it wasn't the Derby I doubt he would have ran on Saturday.
Click to expand...
Hadn't heard about the ringworm - that's unusual in a yard like theirs where every precaution is taken to maintain standards of cleanliness that are probably more superior than most hospitals! I suggest the foot problem is the real issue and not one they really want to publicise massively (it would affect his stallion prospects rather more than a bout of ringworm). My source re the feet is 100% genuine and I think a bruise was mentioned as the reason for keeping him off course before.
 
Ian_Davies said:
The are no "bad" Derbys - but some are a LOT better than others.
Click to expand...

Depends on how you define 'bad', Ian, surely.

I keep mentioning Oath because for me that was a 'bad' Derby in the sense that, on my own figures, if a Derby winner cannot hit 120, then it isn't really a G1 horse. There have been a number of renewals in which the winner has been 120-125 and I tend to be phlegmatic about them.

If they hit 126 I'm happy and occasionally we get something that breaks through the 130 mark. That's when I start to think we have a potential superstar waiting to happen, hoping that be the end of the season 135+ will happen.

I can't help thinking that the Japanese could be missing out on easy money by not sending their best 12f 3yos over. They seem to have quality 12f horses over there.
 
Slim said:
It's refreshing to see someone with a good betting take on here. There was no point even considering a bet in the Derby until the day of market.
Click to expand...

I can't agree, Slim. TLIW didn't work out for me this year but I'd got 20/1 last year and I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the season it proved the best 10-12f 3yo.

And I had Whirl at 33/1 taken on the morning of its trial so that turned out to be a decent bet, especially as I think she was the best filly in the race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Depends on how you define 'bad', Ian, surely.
Click to expand...
Absolutely, Maurice - tbh I was gently dismantling one of racing's tired old cliches.

Obviously any Derby winner will be an above average 3yo but, as you say, in the context of the race, it's all relative and there have been some relatively poor ones.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Absolutely, Maurice - tbh I was gently dismantling one of racing's tired old cliches.

Obviously any Derby winner will be an above average 3yo but, as you say, in the context of the race, it's all relative and there have been some relatively poor ones.
Click to expand...

I'll let you lads naval gaze. I was able to put up the winner Friday night and no essay was required.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I can't agree, Slim. TLIW didn't work out for me this year but I'd got 20/1 last year and I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the season it proved the best 10-12f 3yo.

And I had Whirl at 33/1 taken on the morning of its trial so that turned out to be a decent bet, especially as I think she was the best filly in the race.
Click to expand...

There is no way the horse gave his running. Wayne Lordan had the choice to ride him and didn't, what more did punters need to know. It's the Juddmonte/Irish Champion Stakes or he's a bust. You may well be proven right yet.
 
I had accepted TLIW wasn't going to win when I saw the final jockey bookings. It doesn't mean 20/1 about something that hit favouritism for a good while was a bad bet.
 
Well I backed Lambourn a/p at 13/1 because I thought he ran the best trial.he was sure to stay the trip.
The way it finishes the race off at Chester did it for me.
I was surprised that more didn't back the winner as everything I read was about non stayers.
 
Outsider said:
I think O 'Brien let W.Lordan ride Lambourn to give him a Derby winner.
He has done it before,remember Padraig Beggy.
Click to expand...
Yes. That dawned on me the other day when I heard about the serious head injury he’d had. Especially when you (sadly) think of jockeys that never got over that sort of injury.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Depends on how you define 'bad', Ian, surely.

I keep mentioning Oath because for me that was a 'bad' Derby in the sense that, on my own figures, if a Derby winner cannot hit 120, then it isn't really a G1 horse. There have been a number of renewals in which the winner has been 120-125 and I tend to be phlegmatic about them.

If they hit 126 I'm happy and occasionally we get something that breaks through the 130 mark. That's when I start to think we have a potential superstar waiting to happen, hoping that be the end of the season 135+ will happen.

I can't help thinking that the Japanese could be missing out on easy money by not sending their best 12f 3yos over. They seem to have quality 12f horses over there.
Click to expand...

Our respective figures seldom corelate exactly (if they did one of us wouldn't need to bother!) but Simon Rowlands goes low too:

1749482953796.png
 
Lambourn has been raised to 120, which is on the low side for a Derby winner.

I suppose he has the potential to improve again as he matures and gains experience.
 
Interesting to note that from the 6 horses who ran in the dante none finished in the top 10 so either it was a poor race or none of them were strong stayers. Reminds me of telecasters win. Maybe more trainers will send horses to chester so they will get a much better idea that they truly stay 12f. Always thought it was the most sensible race to got to before the Derby.
 
Curragh very much a front running track. If its good to soft Lambourn will take all the beating especially as I can see a pacemaker in there. With Jan brugheul and Los Angeles in the stable hard to see where he will go after that bar the leger.
 
Coach miguel said:
Interesting to note that from the 6 horses who ran in the dante none finished in the top 10 so either it was a poor race or none of them were strong stayers. Reminds me of telecasters win. Maybe more trainers will send horses to chester so they will get a much better idea that they truly stay 12f. Always thought it was the most sensible race to got to before the Derby.
Click to expand...

I must admit, I don't understand why Lingfield's isn't the most valued trial outside of the two Guineas and the Ballysax. It's arguably the closest in terms of tests.

Maybe they just don't want them racing over 12f that soon before the big day so might there be a case for bringing the Lingfield trial forward by a couple of weeks?
 
If racing moved with the times The Derby would have become a 1m2f contest years ago.

Gone are the days when a half-decent winner at Epsom automatically mopped up the Irish equivalent before targetting the King George.

Nowadays, if at all possible, the winners want to convince the breeding world their Derby winner isn't just a prospective Jumps sire by getting that 1m2f Group 1 win into him, especially if he hadn't won a Group 1 at shorter prior to Epsom.

They might have a job on doing that with Lambourn, so I actually think there's a fair chance they might end up taking The Curragh>Ascot route with him.

Like....The Minstrel, Troy, Shergar, Generous, Galileo - feel the nostalgia! 😂
 
Los Angeles pencilled in for the king george it seems. I can see Lambourn running in the arc as he clearly handles soft going whereas Los Angeles and Jan brugheul seems to prefer good ground. They older 2 could end up at the breeders cup and maybe hong kong.
As regards Lambourn it just depends how much he progresses. If he wins at the curragh maybe the prix niel then the arc.
 


Write your reply...
Back
Top