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The Will Win Thread

That's as bad a ride as you'll see this week. You could see what was going to go wrong turning for home.
 
I wrote this the day after Trinity College hacked up at Royal Ascot. On Nick Luck Daily today, it was confirmed he’s an intended runner, along with Delacroix and possibly Trinity College..

I'd imagine Coolmore are recognising that there's a serious lack of 3-year-olds in the race. The scope for him to go off odds-on isn’t there now, but I could easily see 9/4 or shorter.

There is still 6/1 and 5/1 out there and it deserves the full 'will win' message at that price point.

substack.com

Point Blank: Camille Pissarro Should Be Odds-On for the Eclipse

I watch a tremendous amount of porn, but there’s no search that’ll bring up a better looker than Camille Pissarro.
substack.com substack.com
 
Euronymous said:
Like it Slim. Ombudsman a very poor fav at the minute.
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I'm not worried about Delacroix running. If he'd won the Derby, he wouldn't be here. Why they don't go to the Curragh, I don't know. It'll be a field of older horses, and that 10lbs for the three-year-olds is gold dust.
 
My tuppenceworth for now...

... and I reserve the right to change it once I've crunched the numbers from Ascot.

Trinity College prepped in France for Ascot; the lines can't be taken too literally.

I'm pretty sure Field Of Gold will run.

Right now, even at 6/1, I wouldn't back CP with my worst enemy's money.

3yos receive 10lbs for a very good reason and the only reason 3yos win the Eclipse is because they are the best in the race, not because of the allowance.
 
Desert Orchid said:
My tuppenceworth for now...

... and I reserve the right to change it once I've crunched the numbers from Ascot.

Trinity College prepped in France for Ascot; the lines can't be taken too literally.

I'm pretty sure Field Of Gold will run.

Right now, even at 6/1, I wouldn't back CP with my worst enemy's money.

3yos receive 10lbs for a very good reason and the only reason 3yos win the Eclipse is because they are the best in the race, not because of the allowance.
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Field Of Gold was never going to step up to 10f before York, and connections confirmed that after the St James’s Palace Stakes.

Trinity College is currently a 'might run', and after the Hampton Court, his trainer said the following: "He would have a lot of options — he could be an American Derby horse."

His running style would be ideal over there. They have a far, far better stallion prospect in Camille Pissarro, and I'll be amazed if Ryan Moore doesn’t ride him. He’s the stable’s clear first choice for the Eclipse.
 
I can fully accept RM will ride CP but if the horse is good enough to win an Eclipse it will have been a pretty substandard renewal.

CP's OR is 115 but it doesn't show on this card, the Eclipse field, at the moment, ordered by ORs.

Below that I've ordered them by RPR. By either list, CP is arguably very poor value at 6/1, imvho.

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Desert Orchid said:
I can fully accept RM will ride CP but if the horse is good enough to win an Eclipse it will have been a pretty substandard renewal.

CP's OR is 115 but it doesn't show on this card, the Eclipse field, at the moment, ordered by ORs.

Below that I've ordered them by RPR. By either list, CP is arguably very poor value at 6/1, imvho.

View attachment 24213

View attachment 24214
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It's a shocking renewal. Don't forget that there is very few 3yos going to show up and they get 10lbs off the older horses. I wouldn't take Racing Post ratings out of the bin for the race.
 
If they didn't get the 10lbs you'd never see a 3yo in the race.

A 115 3yo won't beat a 124 4yo because it's getting 10lbs.

Even if the race does cut up badly it will need to do so drastically for 6/1 to appeal to me but, like beauty, value is in the eye of the beholder.
 
Desert Orchid said:
If they didn't get the 10lbs you'd never see a 3yo in the race.

A 115 3yo won't beat a 124 4yo because it's getting 10lbs.

Even if the race does cut up badly it will need to do so drastically for 6/1 to appeal to me but, like beauty, value is in the eye of the beholder.
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What older horse that will show up can run to 126 and be sure? There isn't one.
 
It isn't a handicap, Slim.

The 10lbs is wfa because the horse is naturally 10lbs less mature.

Take 2022. The winner Vadeni (3yo, OR 123) just beat the unlucky in running Mishriff (5yo, OR 125) but was getting the 10lbs. Without those 10lbs he would have been five lengths back.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It isn't a handicap, Slim.

The 10lbs is wfa because the horse is naturally 10lbs less mature.

Take 2022. The winner Vadeni (3yo, OR 123) just beat the unlucky in running Mishriff (5yo, OR 125) but was getting the 10lbs. Without those 10lbs he would have been five lengths back.
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I'm aware it's not handicap but there isn't a chance in hell the 3yos are 10lbs inferior every year when this race hits. They've won 7 of the last 10 for a reason.
 
Ombudsman.
Think Mtoto and that is the type of horse Ombudsman is.
He just needed to grow up and hear his hooves rattle.
Reynier was doubly p555sed with the ride Facteur Cheval got as Ascot.
He is capable of better but needs ground less lively.
Calandagan will get it right one day , the long stiff Sandown straight may be right up his alley.
He just needs Soumillon to coax him home ( not that he'll get the ride, but he should )
That Ballydoyle have only one horse quoted in the top ten (Betting) says a lot.
Ground ,as ever will be the key.
 
I was reading this thread and thinking about Mtoto and Ombudsman.

Mtoto was actually 14/1 with the sponsors a week before the race - seven days later he floored Reference Point, a decent Derby winner.

And the wfa was bigger then than now.

Plus Ombudsman, as older horses go, seems highly progressive to me and I thought he beat a decent field in style at Royal Ascot.

That said, seven of the last ten Eclipses went to 3yos, and that includes a year when 3yos couldn't run (COVID year), so the modern wfa is hardly against them.

The Prix Du Jockey Club form is questionable to me and I'd have Ombudsman as the most probable Eclipse winner on paper (though I'd agree he wants it quick and CoC Andrew Cooper could thwart that), but Camille Pissarro could turn out better than any numbers from Chantilly might suggest.

Should be a cracking race at Sandown Park - I might even go! 😂
 
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Slim said:
I'm aware it's not handicap but there isn't a chance in hell the 3yos are 10lbs inferior every year when this race hits. They've won 7 of the last 10 for a reason.
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The reason they've won so many recent runnings is that the 3yos have been good ones and the older horses not so hot.

The 10lbs is a figure based on the statistical averages and a mature 3yo may well have a slight advantage but there's no real way of telling how mature the 3yo is as it is rated on its form.

Have a look through the last seven runnings; the older horses have been largely dross but there's Gaiyyath and Mishriff in there. One gave away the weight and the other should have because their OR was higher than the 3yos'.
 


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