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The Will Win Thread

Desert Orchid said:
The reason they've won so many recent runnings is that the 3yos have been good ones and the older horses not so hot.

The 10lbs is a figure based on the statistical averages and a mature 3yo may well have a slight advantage but there's no real way of telling how mature the 3yo is as it is rated on its form.

Have a look through the last seven runnings; the older horses have been largely dross but there's Gaiyyath and Mishriff in there. One gave away the weight and the other should have because their OR was higher than the 3yos'.
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Firstly, the 10lbs figure was plucked from thin air. Secondly, there is a selection bias — average three-year-olds don’t run in the Eclipse. It is an enormous task to give a progressive three-year-old weight-for-age, specifically in the Eclipse.
 
Admiral Rous's WFA scale has stood the test of time imo,and takes account the Eclipse being not only the 1st gp1 clash of the generations,but also the furthest at that stage of th e pattern; therefore tried and tested over centuries,rather than "plucked from the air".
 
reet hard said:
Admiral Rous's WFA scale has stood the test of timeiimo,and takes account the Eclipse being not only the 1st gp1 clash of the generations,but also the furthest at that stage of the pattern; therefore tried and tested rather than "plucked from the air".
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Indeed—so much so that they reduced it from 11lbs to 10lbs six years ago. I honestly find it hard to fathom that punters think the older horses are on a level playing field in the Eclipse.
 
If Admiral Rous's wfa scale had "stood the test of time" there wouldn't have been multiple changes to it - in Mtoto's day it was 13lb in the Eclipse.

It's 10lb now and that hasn't stopped 3yos continuing to do well.

The modern 3yo is likely to be more precociously bred than in the past, hence the changes.

Like Eddie, if I read him right, I think the ground, not the wfa, may be key.

If we get rain or Cooper waters heavily, that won't help Ombudsman and might help Camille Pissarro.

But if Cooper and the weather allow summer fast ground, Ombudman impressed me every bit as much as Field Of Gold (yet to meet an older horse) at Royal Ascot and seems progressive himself to me.

I'd be saving any "will win" proclamations until the day of the race when we know the ground, but then it is a game of opinions and whatever else "bold" might be, it's seldom boring.
 
Slim said:
Indeed—so much so that they reduced it from 11lbs to 10lbs six years ago. I honestly find it hard to fathom that punters think the older horses are on a level playing field in the Eclipse.
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Exactly my point - the wfa allowances are based on statistical averages and those averages have driven the reductions in the allowances over the years. If there is an advantage to a younger horse it only amounts to a pound or thereabouts. A particularly mature 3yo may, of course, have an advantage but they are few and far between at the very top level as they have generally had to show their ability to get to G1 level.

All that said, I have my doubts about Ombudsman actually running at Sandown. That was a huge effort last week and he might need more time to get over his exertions. I haven't thought this through fully, cards on the table, but I wonder if they'd be better sending FOG to Sandown and Ombudsman to York. I'd trust the Gosdens and the owners to come to the right decisions.

Hard races at Ascot for his principal opponents might well be CP's best chance of winning at Sandown rather than the wfa scale.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Exactly my point - the wfa allowances are based on statistical averages and those averages have driven the reductions in the allowances over the years. If there is an advantage to a younger horse it only amounts to a pound or thereabouts. A particularly mature 3yo may, of course, have an advantage but they are few and far between at the very top level as they have generally had to show their ability to get to G1 level.

All that said, I have my doubts about Ombudsman actually running at Sandown. That was a huge effort last week and he might need more time to get over his exertions. I haven't thought this through fully, cards on the table, but I wonder if they'd be better sending FOG to Sandown and Ombudsman to York. I'd trust the Gosdens and the owners to come to the right decisions.

Hard races at Ascot for his principal opponents might well be CP's best chance of winning at Sandown rather than the wfa scale.
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Just so I’m clear—I know the WFA scale is based on a massive data set, and I understand they tweaked it because 3yos were showing a statistical advantage. Whether they went far enough won’t be clear until there’s enough data to assess the impact.

That said, the average 3yo doesn’t run in the Coral Eclipse. The timing of the race is perfect for 3yos—it lands right when they're physically peaking and often stepping out of the Derby. If there’s an edge for 3yos over 10f, it’s most pronounced here, because of where it sits in the calendar and because only a very specific type of 3yo runs: to be blunt, f$%^ing good ones.

In my opinion, the market is massively overestimating Ombudsman. He might turn out to be a top-class older horse, but he’s already priced like he is. Aidan O’Brien has admitted they got the tactics wrong with Los Angeles by going too hard, which is what made Ombudsman look so visually impressive. If punters think he can just repeat that while conceding 10lb, fair enough—but he’s a rancid price to do so.
 
Our respective arguments are starting to converge, Slim.

You're accepting the allowance isn't plucked out of thin air and I'm accepting that a 3yo can be better than the wfa allows for.

I also accept that a top class 3yo will do well in the race.

I still think those good 3yos winners have done so because the older oppo was substandard, and those 3yos were rated well into the 120s. CP is still 115 and his older oppo could be in the 120s. I think that will make things very difficult for him but, as I said earlier, his freshness may help him over those that ran during the week just gone.

I also accept there's a lot of arse-covering going on on my part but my gut is telling me CP would be up against it. I'd actually fancy Henri Matisse a wee bit more strongly were he to step up in trip.
 
Hamilton 9.00 – Cougar (Saturday)

This bastard of a horse is at that perfect stage in the relationship where I either draw tomorrow or put a line through him for good.

The handicapper gave him nothing for his last run off 60. He just doesn’t have the early pace to be running over a mile. They’re finally stepping him up to 1m3f. If he can’t beat these seven rivals, they may as well leave him at the course – and with it being the last race of the night, I can’t quite rule out that that’s actually the plan.

Anyway, I’ll burn my few quid when the prices go up and will never mention the horse again either way
 
Slim said:
Hamilton 9.00 – Cougar (Saturday)

This bastard of a horse is at that perfect stage in the relationship where I either draw tomorrow or put a line through him for good.

The handicapper gave him nothing for his last run off 60. He just doesn’t have the early pace to be running over a mile. They’re finally stepping him up to 1m3f. If he can’t beat these seven rivals, they may as well leave him at the course – and with it being the last race of the night, I can’t quite rule out that that’s actually the plan.

Anyway, I’ll burn my few quid when the prices go up and will never mention the horse again either way
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I looked at that race and fancied younger rival, Alnayef.

Cougar's participation is putting me off Alnayef, and Alnayef's participation is putting me off Cougar.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
I looked at that race and fancied younger rival, Alnayef.

Cougar's participation is putting me off Alnayef, and Alnayef's participation is putting me off Cougar.
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Just split your bet and you'll end up on one live one.
 
Slim said:
Hamilton 9.00 – Cougar (Saturday)

This bastard of a horse is at that perfect stage in the relationship where I either draw tomorrow or put a line through him for good.

The handicapper gave him nothing for his last run off 60. He just doesn’t have the early pace to be running over a mile. They’re finally stepping him up to 1m3f. If he can’t beat these seven rivals, they may as well leave him at the course – and with it being the last race of the night, I can’t quite rule out that that’s actually the plan.

Anyway, I’ll burn my few quid when the prices go up and will never mention the horse again either way
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He showed less than nothing. He just isn't a racehorse anymore.
 
There has to be a chance it will win when they decide it will. It's just a question of figuring out when/if the handbrake is off but it's also the reason why I avoid that level of racing like the plague.
 
Desert Orchid said:
There has to be a chance it will win when they decide it will. It's just a question of figuring out when/if the handbrake is off but it's also the reason why I avoid that level of racing like the plague.
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I'd agree but the horse simply isn't passing the eye test.
 
Slim said:
I'd agree but the horse simply isn't passing the eye test.
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Aalto wouldn't have passed the eye test either in any of its runs since last year's Bunbury Cup.

I won't be surprised if he doesn't feature again until next year but a bit of me thinks that because he didn't win yesterday they might have another pop at a £100k race before putting him back off the radar with next year in mind.
 
Slim said:
Leopardstown 5.25
South Island 13/2

I think the models have priced this horse completely wrong. I'd have been delighted with the 4/1 originally chalked up.
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I won't lie. That was f$%^ing annoying to just run into one.
 
Good effort Slim mate did the hard work and gets beat by one that's improved beyond recognition can't do owt about that.
 

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