jinnyj
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Jan 8, 2004
- Messages
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Please call him by his anointed name - the Bruffalo or should it be Broughalo?
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BUMPERS
- Thread starter luckyme
- Start date
Trainers comment during the week
this is a new A v E
What was expected to happen and what actually happened
Trainers comments before race………..
Stop Loss 25/1 (bet365) "Stop Loss first time out, had a not too promising run in a bumper 964 days ago. In this big field, we'll be delighted if he could finish in the first half."
What actually happened………1st Stop Loss 25/1
Comments: Held up in rear, smooth headway after 3 out, went 2nd before last, kept on strongly run-in, led close home op 20/1
Ya couldn't make it up.
this is a new A v E
What was expected to happen and what actually happened
Trainers comments before race………..
Stop Loss 25/1 (bet365) "Stop Loss first time out, had a not too promising run in a bumper 964 days ago. In this big field, we'll be delighted if he could finish in the first half."
What actually happened………1st Stop Loss 25/1
Comments: Held up in rear, smooth headway after 3 out, went 2nd before last, kept on strongly run-in, led close home op 20/1
Ya couldn't make it up.
Lad of our forum, just puts it up for us to read and no he is not looking for anyone to join him, just a decent guy who puts it up for anyone to read.
Below is your full NHF trainer + sire + racecard analysis for the 2.07 Southwell NH Flat Race (Class 5, Good–Soft) based strictly on your system stack (NH Engine v3, Novice Hurdle/Chase off, NHF rules from NH Playbooks, HRR Composite v1.0, Racecard Decoder v1.4, Track Playbook logic).
This is a 4–5yo NHF, so we apply: NHF biases → Trainer DB → Sire NHF stats → Jockey record → Market shape.
1. Southwell NHF Course Template (using NH Engine v3)
Southwell NHF historical profile (aligned with Kelso/Newton Abbot NHF elements in v3):
Pace: Often steady → late sprint.
Handy/travellers: +5%
Deep hold-up: –5%
Ground (Good–Soft): Slight stamina tilt vs Good.
Stamina sires +3%
Speed sires –3%
4–5yo bumpers:
4yos tend to underperform statistically → –3%
5yos neutral to slight + (experience/physicality) → +2%
2. Trainer NHF Records (Last 730 Days)
(Sorted by strength)
Elite NHF Trainers in this race
TrainerRWPW%P%NotesDan Skelton159418926%56%TOP bumper yardBen Pauling93183119%33%Excellent with 4yo bumper typesOlly Murphy79174122%52%Strong bumper statsFergal O’Brien155206213%40%Big bumper yardKillahena/McPherson3151316%42%Quiet but outperforming
Outliers:
Sarah Hollinshead (0–3) → –10% trainer penalty
Matt Crawley (1–4) small sample → neutral
3. Sire NHF Progeny Data (Last 730 Days)
(Interpreting only NHF-relevant columns)
Strong NHF Sires
SireRWPW%P%NotesCastle du Berlais42350%75%Elite bumper influenceGoliath du Berlais42350%75%France’s strongest young NH sireSoldier of Fortune69112216%32%Reliable stamina & bumper sireFrontiersman18156%28%Solid but not eliteOcovango16146%25%Fair, not top-class bumper sireJack Hobbsmoderate bumper sire
1. Southwell NHF Course Template (using NH Engine v3)
Southwell NHF historical profile (aligned with Kelso/Newton Abbot NHF elements in v3):
Pace: Often steady → late sprint.
Handy/travellers: +5%
Deep hold-up: –5%
Ground (Good–Soft): Slight stamina tilt vs Good.
Stamina sires +3%
Speed sires –3%
4–5yo bumpers:
4yos tend to underperform statistically → –3%
5yos neutral to slight + (experience/physicality) → +2%
2. Trainer NHF Records (Last 730 Days)
(Sorted by strength)
Elite NHF Trainers in this race
TrainerRWPW%P%NotesDan Skelton159418926%56%TOP bumper yardBen Pauling93183119%33%Excellent with 4yo bumper typesOlly Murphy79174122%52%Strong bumper statsFergal O’Brien155206213%40%Big bumper yardKillahena/McPherson3151316%42%Quiet but outperforming
Outliers:
Sarah Hollinshead (0–3) → –10% trainer penalty
Matt Crawley (1–4) small sample → neutral
3. Sire NHF Progeny Data (Last 730 Days)
(Interpreting only NHF-relevant columns)
Strong NHF Sires
SireRWPW%P%NotesCastle du Berlais42350%75%Elite bumper influenceGoliath du Berlais42350%75%France’s strongest young NH sireSoldier of Fortune69112216%32%Reliable stamina & bumper sireFrontiersman18156%28%Solid but not eliteOcovango16146%25%Fair, not top-class bumper sireJack Hobbsmoderate bumper sire
Weak NHF sire:
Desinvolte → 0 wins in all NHF stats → severe negative.
4. Runner-by-Runner Composite Evaluation TOP TIER (Likely Winning Group)9 – VANGO CAN GO (2/1) – Skelton / Ocovango
Trainer: 26% W, 56% P (elite)
Jockey: 30% W at track
Sire: Ocovango (fair, not elite – mild neutral)
Positioning: Skelton bumper types usually handy → +5%
✔ Positives
Best NHF trainer in race
Yard fires winners first time repeatedly
Market support (2/1) = positive for Skelton bumper
4yo but large/strong type typically from yard → reduces the –3% age penalty
✖ Negatives
Sire is not a strong bumper influence
Could be short enough
Projected Rank: 1st or 2nd7 – MY MATE AJ (9/2) – Pauling / Soldier of Fortune
Trainer: 19% W, strong with 4yos
Sire: Very strong bumper sire
Pedigree: NHF specialist influence
Jockey: Ben Jones (fair)
✔ Positives
One of the top three bumper sires
Trainer is major bumper force
4yo from a very good NH bumper sire
Ideal profile for Southwell (travels strongly)
✖ Negatives
Pauling 3–5yo debutants sometimes need run (small negative)
Projected Rank: 1st–3rd2 – EUSTACE GRENIER (9/1) – Murphy / Castle du Berlais
Trainer: 22% W, 52% P – outstanding bumper figures
Jockey: Lewis Stones (claims 3) → neutral
Sire: Best bumper record in field (50% W, 75% P)
✔ Positives
SIRE is top NHF influence
Trainer excellent with bumper debutants
4yo but French-bred often forward early
✖ Negatives
Jockey less proven in NHF
Price suggests not first string yard runner
Projected Rank: 2nd–4th
1 – COLINS LEGACY (17/2) – Fergal O’Brien / Telescope
Trainer: 40% P – very strong bumper operation
Jockey: Harrison → decent
Sire: Telescope very solid (16% W)
✔ Positives
Yard sends “ready” bumper horses routinely
Sire is sound for NHF
5yo → +2% physical maturity
Distance/stamina stats excellent
✖ Negatives
O’Brien 5yo debutants can be quirky
Not always the yard’s most profitable angle first time
Projected Rank: 2nd–5th MIDDLE TIER (Place possibilities) 10 – GIDGE (2/1 joint fav) – O’Brien / Soldier of Fortune
Trainer: as above
Sire: Very good
Form: Has run twice (2 & 244 days) – experience positive
But… 5yo mare in NHF = disadvantage
Big Negative:
Mares strongly underperform in mixed-sex bumpers
→ –10% structural penalty
Projected Rank: 4th–6th
(Lay angle at the prices)
4 – GRANITE SANDS (16/1)
Form: 4th (decent)
Sire: Strong (Goliath du Berlais)
Trainer: Overperforming small yard
✔ Positives
One run already (experience counts)
Sire red-hot for bumpers
Trainer figures excellent
✖ Negatives
Amateur jockey (5lb) – neutral/negative
Market weak (16/1)
Projected Rank: 4th–6th
BOTTOM TIER (Unlikely Contenders) 5 – ICONIC JACK (10/1)
Sire mediocre, trainer average → needs big improvement.
3 – GOOD BOY GRIFF (28/1)
Hanmer 0/11 in bumpers → strong negative.
8 – PRESENTANDCORRECT (25/1)
Trainer poor bumper record.
11 – POTTERS ANGELTIERS (25/1)
Sire OK, trainer sample tiny; mare → –10%.
6 – LA VISH (80/1)
Zero sire NHF success → strongest negative in field.
5. OVERALL RANKING (Final Composite)
Integrating:
Trainer Strength
Sire NHF Power
Age biases
Pace suitability
HRB baseline
Experience
Market logic
1st – VANGO CAN GO 
2nd – MY MATE AJ 
3rd – EUSTACE GRENIER 4th – COLINS LEGACY 5th – GIDGE 6th – GRANITE SANDS
Rest: no appeal
Best Value Bet Eustace Grenier (9/1) – best sire + elite trainer + French NHF profile. 
Lay Candidate Gidge (2/1) – mare in mixed-sex bumper + questionable value.
I did a dam performance so a slight upgrade to granite Sands at a nice price
This is a 4–5yo NHF, so we apply: NHF biases → Trainer DB → Sire NHF stats → Jockey record → Market shape.
1. Southwell NHF Course Template (using NH Engine v3)Southwell NHF historical profile (aligned with Kelso/Newton Abbot NHF elements in v3):
Pace: Often steady → late sprint.
Handy/travellers: +5%
Deep hold-up: –5%
Ground (Good–Soft): Slight stamina tilt vs Good.
Stamina sires +3%
Speed sires –3%
4–5yo bumpers:
4yos tend to underperform statistically → –3%
5yos neutral to slight + (experience/physicality) → +2%
2. Trainer NHF Records (Last 730 Days)(Sorted by strength)
Elite NHF Trainers in this raceTrainerRWPW%P%NotesDan Skelton159418926%56%TOP bumper yardBen Pauling93183119%33%Excellent with 4yo bumper typesOlly Murphy79174122%52%Strong bumper statsFergal O’Brien155206213%40%Big bumper yardKillahena/McPherson3151316%42%Quiet but outperforming
Outliers:
Sarah Hollinshead (0–3) → –10% trainer penalty
Matt Crawley (1–4) small sample → neutral
3. Sire NHF Progeny Data (Last 730 Days)(Interpreting only NHF-relevant columns)
Strong NHF SiresSireRWPW%P%NotesCastle du Berlais42350%75%Elite bumper influenceGoliath du Berlais42350%75%France’s strongest young NH sireSoldier of Fortune69112216%32%Reliable stamina & bumper sireFrontiersman18156%28%Solid but not eliteOcovango16146%25%Fair, not top-class bumper sireJack Hobbsmoderate bumper sire
1. Southwell NHF Course Template (using NH Engine v3)Southwell NHF historical profile (aligned with Kelso/Newton Abbot NHF elements in v3):
Pace: Often steady → late sprint.
Handy/travellers: +5%
Deep hold-up: –5%
Ground (Good–Soft): Slight stamina tilt vs Good.
Stamina sires +3%
Speed sires –3%
4–5yo bumpers:
4yos tend to underperform statistically → –3%
5yos neutral to slight + (experience/physicality) → +2%
2. Trainer NHF Records (Last 730 Days)(Sorted by strength)
Elite NHF Trainers in this raceTrainerRWPW%P%NotesDan Skelton159418926%56%TOP bumper yardBen Pauling93183119%33%Excellent with 4yo bumper typesOlly Murphy79174122%52%Strong bumper statsFergal O’Brien155206213%40%Big bumper yardKillahena/McPherson3151316%42%Quiet but outperforming
Outliers:
Sarah Hollinshead (0–3) → –10% trainer penalty
Matt Crawley (1–4) small sample → neutral
3. Sire NHF Progeny Data (Last 730 Days)(Interpreting only NHF-relevant columns)
Strong NHF SiresSireRWPW%P%NotesCastle du Berlais42350%75%Elite bumper influenceGoliath du Berlais42350%75%France’s strongest young NH sireSoldier of Fortune69112216%32%Reliable stamina & bumper sireFrontiersman18156%28%Solid but not eliteOcovango16146%25%Fair, not top-class bumper sireJack Hobbsmoderate bumper sire
Weak NHF sire:
Desinvolte → 0 wins in all NHF stats → severe negative.
4. Runner-by-Runner Composite Evaluation TOP TIER (Likely Winning Group)9 – VANGO CAN GO (2/1) – Skelton / OcovangoTrainer: 26% W, 56% P (elite)
Jockey: 30% W at track
Sire: Ocovango (fair, not elite – mild neutral)
Positioning: Skelton bumper types usually handy → +5%
✔ Positives
Best NHF trainer in race
Yard fires winners first time repeatedly
Market support (2/1) = positive for Skelton bumper
4yo but large/strong type typically from yard → reduces the –3% age penalty
✖ Negatives
Sire is not a strong bumper influence
Could be short enough
Projected Rank: 1st or 2nd7 – MY MATE AJ (9/2) – Pauling / Soldier of Fortune
Trainer: 19% W, strong with 4yos
Sire: Very strong bumper sire
Pedigree: NHF specialist influence
Jockey: Ben Jones (fair)
✔ Positives
One of the top three bumper sires
Trainer is major bumper force
4yo from a very good NH bumper sire
Ideal profile for Southwell (travels strongly)
✖ Negatives
Pauling 3–5yo debutants sometimes need run (small negative)
Projected Rank: 1st–3rd2 – EUSTACE GRENIER (9/1) – Murphy / Castle du Berlais
Trainer: 22% W, 52% P – outstanding bumper figures
Jockey: Lewis Stones (claims 3) → neutral
Sire: Best bumper record in field (50% W, 75% P)
✔ Positives
SIRE is top NHF influence
Trainer excellent with bumper debutants
4yo but French-bred often forward early
✖ Negatives
Jockey less proven in NHF
Price suggests not first string yard runner
Projected Rank: 2nd–4th
1 – COLINS LEGACY (17/2) – Fergal O’Brien / Telescope
Trainer: 40% P – very strong bumper operation
Jockey: Harrison → decent
Sire: Telescope very solid (16% W)
✔ Positives
Yard sends “ready” bumper horses routinely
Sire is sound for NHF
5yo → +2% physical maturity
Distance/stamina stats excellent
✖ Negatives
O’Brien 5yo debutants can be quirky
Not always the yard’s most profitable angle first time
Projected Rank: 2nd–5th
MIDDLE TIER (Place possibilities) 10 – GIDGE (2/1 joint fav) – O’Brien / Soldier of FortuneTrainer: as above
Sire: Very good
Form: Has run twice (2 & 244 days) – experience positive
But… 5yo mare in NHF = disadvantage
Big Negative:
Mares strongly underperform in mixed-sex bumpers
→ –10% structural penalty
Projected Rank: 4th–6th
(Lay angle at the prices)
4 – GRANITE SANDS (16/1)
Form: 4th (decent)
Sire: Strong (Goliath du Berlais)
Trainer: Overperforming small yard
✔ Positives
One run already (experience counts)
Sire red-hot for bumpers
Trainer figures excellent
✖ Negatives
Amateur jockey (5lb) – neutral/negative
Market weak (16/1)
Projected Rank: 4th–6th
BOTTOM TIER (Unlikely Contenders) 5 – ICONIC JACK (10/1)Sire mediocre, trainer average → needs big improvement.
3 – GOOD BOY GRIFF (28/1)
Hanmer 0/11 in bumpers → strong negative.
8 – PRESENTANDCORRECT (25/1)
Trainer poor bumper record.
11 – POTTERS ANGELTIERS (25/1)
Sire OK, trainer sample tiny; mare → –10%.
6 – LA VISH (80/1)
Zero sire NHF success → strongest negative in field.
5. OVERALL RANKING (Final Composite)Integrating:
Trainer Strength
Sire NHF Power
Age biases
Pace suitability
HRB baseline
Experience
Market logic
1st – VANGO CAN GO 2nd – MY MATE AJ 3rd – EUSTACE GRENIER 4th – COLINS LEGACY 5th – GIDGE 6th – GRANITE SANDSRest: no appeal
Best Value Bet Eustace Grenier (9/1) – best sire + elite trainer + French NHF profile. Lay Candidate Gidge (2/1) – mare in mixed-sex bumper + questionable value.I did a dam performance so a slight upgrade to granite Sands at a nice price
STALLION + CONDITIONS ANALYSIS (Heavy ground relevance highlighted)
We break down each horse’s sire record over the last 730 days across:
Distance (2m bumper relevant)
Horse age (4–5yo)
Track stats (Uttoxeter-like left-handed)
Going (HEAVY) ← most important today
Class (Class 5 relevant)
Surface (NH turf)
1. Crystal Force (IRE) — Crystal Ocean
Stallion Profile Highlights
Distance: 0 wins from 11 (but 4 places – 36% place rate)
Age: 5% win / 24% place (moderate)
Track: 0 from 1
Going (Heavy proxy = Soft/Heavy): 1 win, 6 places (43% place rate)
Class 5: 0 wins, 3 places (50% place rate)
Interpretation
Crystal Ocean progeny stay very well, often place on soft/heavy, but aren’t explosive winners. Good for grinding on, poor for speed. This is a positive stamina sire for heavy, but win percentages remain low.
Impact: mild upgrade (stamina yes, limited class).
2. Eastern Fire (IRE) — Poet’s Word
Stallion Profile
Distance: 6% win / 47% place (solid)
Age: 9% win / 40% place
Track: 0 wins / 3 places from 4 (75% place!)
Going (Heavy proxy): 0 wins, 6 places from 10 (60% place rate)
Class 5: 0 wins, 4 places (33%)
Interpretation
Poet’s Word progeny love wet ground and place frequently, but win strike rates are surprisingly low across all categories. Ideal for staying-on late, less ideal for a 4-runner tactical race.
Impact: small downgrade (huge placer, poor winner profile).
3. Laraktar (FR) — Karaktar
Stallion Profile
Sample size tiny, but:
Distance: 0/2
Age: 0/3
Track: 0/0
Going: 0/0
Class: 0/3
Surface: 0/3
Interpretation
Tiny data set = no meaningful sire guidance. But Karaktar is a French AQPS sire, and French sires massively outperform on heavy UK bumpers (historical trend, not shown in the 2-runner sample).
Impact: neutral → small positive inferred (French sire + Murphy yard).
5. Rathkenny (IRE) — Masked Marvel
Stallion Profile (exceptionally strong)
Distance: 33% wins / 47% placed (excellent)
Age (5yo): 15% wins
Track: 50% wins, 100% places (insane stat, small sample)
Going (Soft/Heavy): 33% wins, 29% place
Class (5): 36% wins / 57% placed (elite level)
Surface: 36% wins / 57% placed
Interpretation
This is the monster sire in the field.
Masked Marvel progeny are:
absolute weapons in soft/heavy
high win-rate (not just places)
very strong at this distance, age, and class
proven staying types who power through deep ground
Impact: MAJOR UPGRADE.
Rathkenny becomes a far bigger danger — possibly the best heavy-ground sire profile in the whole UK bumper scene.
REVISED RANKINGS (after stallion integration)
This changes the race more than any trainer stat did.
1st — Laraktar (FR)
Still the top pick due to:
Olly Murphy’s massive Uttoxeter/NH-flat strike rates
French-bred heavy-ground advantage
Tactical superiority in 4-runner bumpers
Stable form & debutant profile
2nd — Rathkenny (IRE)
BIG MOVER
After applying Masked Marvel’s stallion statistics:
Rathkenny now has the best ground, class, stamina, and distance profile in the field.
Trainer’s November stats here are excellent (33% win).
A HUGE threat — now nearly co-favourite on raw profile.
3rd — Eastern Fire (IRE)
Poet’s Word = placer, not winner in bumpers.
Skelton gives him a floor, but sire numbers are anti-win on heavy.
Has a chance; unlikely to win unless others underperform.
4th — Crystal Force (IRE)
Crystal Ocean stamina helps, but lacks class and trainer power.
BEST BETS — UPDATED
WIN BET (Primary)
Laraktar (FR)
Trainer form + French sire angle + race shape advantage.
WIN BET (Secondary / Danger)
Rathkenny (IRE)
The BEST heavy-ground sire in the field by miles.
Trainer has a strong November/Uttoxeter micro-angle.
Now a legitimate winning threat.
LAY / AVOID FOR WIN
Eastern Fire (IRE)
Strong placer profile, weak winner profile on heavy.
FORECAST
Laraktar → Rathkenny
(reverse for saver)
We break down each horse’s sire record over the last 730 days across:
Distance (2m bumper relevant)
Horse age (4–5yo)
Track stats (Uttoxeter-like left-handed)
Going (HEAVY) ← most important today
Class (Class 5 relevant)
Surface (NH turf)
1. Crystal Force (IRE) — Crystal OceanStallion Profile Highlights
Distance: 0 wins from 11 (but 4 places – 36% place rate)
Age: 5% win / 24% place (moderate)
Track: 0 from 1
Going (Heavy proxy = Soft/Heavy): 1 win, 6 places (43% place rate)
Class 5: 0 wins, 3 places (50% place rate)
Interpretation
Crystal Ocean progeny stay very well, often place on soft/heavy, but aren’t explosive winners. Good for grinding on, poor for speed. This is a positive stamina sire for heavy, but win percentages remain low.
Impact: mild upgrade (stamina yes, limited class).
2. Eastern Fire (IRE) — Poet’s WordStallion Profile
Distance: 6% win / 47% place (solid)
Age: 9% win / 40% place
Track: 0 wins / 3 places from 4 (75% place!)
Going (Heavy proxy): 0 wins, 6 places from 10 (60% place rate)
Class 5: 0 wins, 4 places (33%)
Interpretation
Poet’s Word progeny love wet ground and place frequently, but win strike rates are surprisingly low across all categories. Ideal for staying-on late, less ideal for a 4-runner tactical race.
Impact: small downgrade (huge placer, poor winner profile).
3. Laraktar (FR) — KaraktarStallion Profile
Sample size tiny, but:
Distance: 0/2
Age: 0/3
Track: 0/0
Going: 0/0
Class: 0/3
Surface: 0/3
Interpretation
Tiny data set = no meaningful sire guidance. But Karaktar is a French AQPS sire, and French sires massively outperform on heavy UK bumpers (historical trend, not shown in the 2-runner sample).
Impact: neutral → small positive inferred (French sire + Murphy yard).
5. Rathkenny (IRE) — Masked MarvelStallion Profile (exceptionally strong)
Distance: 33% wins / 47% placed (excellent)
Age (5yo): 15% wins
Track: 50% wins, 100% places (insane stat, small sample)
Going (Soft/Heavy): 33% wins, 29% place
Class (5): 36% wins / 57% placed (elite level)
Surface: 36% wins / 57% placed
Interpretation
This is the monster sire in the field.
Masked Marvel progeny are:
absolute weapons in soft/heavy
high win-rate (not just places)
very strong at this distance, age, and class
proven staying types who power through deep ground
Impact: MAJOR UPGRADE.
Rathkenny becomes a far bigger danger — possibly the best heavy-ground sire profile in the whole UK bumper scene.
REVISED RANKINGS (after stallion integration)This changes the race more than any trainer stat did.
1st — Laraktar (FR)
Still the top pick due to:
Olly Murphy’s massive Uttoxeter/NH-flat strike rates
French-bred heavy-ground advantage
Tactical superiority in 4-runner bumpers
Stable form & debutant profile
2nd — Rathkenny (IRE)
BIG MOVERAfter applying Masked Marvel’s stallion statistics:
Rathkenny now has the best ground, class, stamina, and distance profile in the field.
Trainer’s November stats here are excellent (33% win).
A HUGE threat — now nearly co-favourite on raw profile.
3rd — Eastern Fire (IRE)
Poet’s Word = placer, not winner in bumpers.
Skelton gives him a floor, but sire numbers are anti-win on heavy.
Has a chance; unlikely to win unless others underperform.
4th — Crystal Force (IRE)
Crystal Ocean stamina helps, but lacks class and trainer power.
BEST BETS — UPDATED WIN BET (Primary)Laraktar (FR)
Trainer form + French sire angle + race shape advantage.
WIN BET (Secondary / Danger)Rathkenny (IRE)
The BEST heavy-ground sire in the field by miles.
Trainer has a strong November/Uttoxeter micro-angle.
Now a legitimate winning threat.
LAY / AVOID FOR WINEastern Fire (IRE)
Strong placer profile, weak winner profile on heavy.
FORECASTLaraktar → Rathkenny
(reverse for saver)
Nice, let’s bolt the Cheltenham/soft Listed-bumper overlays (Option B) onto your raw merged scores and see who comes out on top.
I’ve only used:
The data you posted
Generic Cheltenham bumper + soft-ground logic
No external formbook, no extra HRB/HRR stuff
Final Scores After Cheltenham-Soft Overlays
Base raw score ➜ after overlays
Rank Horse Raw Score Cheltenham/Soft Overlay Final
1 Chicker +13.0 +3.0 +16.0
2 Saint Clovis +10.5 +2.5 +13.0
3 Bud Fox +7.0 +2.5 +9.5
4 Onlyforfrankie +6.0 +0.5 +6.5
5= Hawks Rock +2.0 +3.0 +5.0
5= Sinchi Roca +2.5 +2.5 +5.0
5= Wonder Flying +3.0 +2.0 +5.0
8 The Mad Poet +3.0 0 +3.0
9 Makingplansfor –1.0 +1.0 0.0
10= Eclat De Marvel –3.0 +1.0 –2.0
10= Lucky Diamond –2.0 0 –2.0
12= A Likeable Rogue –3.0 0 –3.0
12= Lion City –2.5 –0.5 –3.0
14 Kampari –4.0 0 –4.0
What the Cheltenham / Soft Overlay Actually Did
Got upgraded
CHICKER (+3)
Big boost for:
Cheltenham win in a UK2 bumper (same C&D)
Sire Frontiersman with good soft/going stats
Already unbeaten
Overlay says: handles the track, handles this level, and should stay on soft.
SAINT CLOVIS (+2.5)
Two huge Irish fields (18 & 19 runners) show big-field stamina
Irish bumper style + softish tendencies help in a soft Cheltenham Listed
He doesn’t have track experience, but his profile screams “big galloping bumper”.
BUD FOX (+2.5)
Punchestown 24-runner win → serious big-field stamina tick
Walk In The Park stallion has very solid going stats
Overlay respects him as proper Listed bumper horse, but he still has the 201-day layoff dragging his raw score a bit.
HAWKS ROCK (+3)
Massive upgrade on:
Galway 2nd of 16 (9k) → proven in a big, deep Irish bumper
Stallion Jukebox Jury with strong soft/going stats
Still let down by trainer/jockey cold stats in the raw layer, but conditions are bang right.
SINCHI ROCA (+2.5)
Heavy-ground win at Taunton + Getaway as sire = strong soft/heavy profile
Cheltenham soft is a stamina test; this overlay LOVES that Taunton heavy win.
WONDER FLYING (+2)
Ran 5th in the same Cheltenham UK2 bumper as Chicker → proven track/field
Sire Masked Marvel with very good soft/going stats
Overlay says: handled the track, will improve with softer ground / stronger test.
MAKINGPLANSFOR (+1)
2nd on good-to-soft at Newton Abbot + decent going stats for Telescope
Gets a small soft/stamina nudge.
Got downgraded (or left where they were)
LION CITY (–0.5)
Heavy run at Naas was poor
Sire Dubawi has a great flat record but not a soft/staying NH profile
Stiff, soft Cheltenham bumper looks against him on this data.
KAMPARI, A LIKEABLE ROGUE, ECLAT DE MARVEL, LUCKY DIAMOND
No proven soft/stiff/track angles or got hammered in modest races
Overlays don’t rescue them.
Interpreting the Final Picture
Top Tier (proper contenders)
CHICKER – Final +16
Unbeaten (2/2), including a win in the key Cheltenham UK2 trial
Massive raw score and big Cheltenham/soft boost
On your data-only model, he is clearly ahead of the favourite.
SAINT CLOVIS – Final +13
Two massive-field Irish bumper runs with great subform
Overlay loves him for a strongly-run soft Cheltenham Listed
Very live danger and big price vs score.
BUD FOX – Final +9.5
Best single piece of form in the race (24-runner Punchestown win)
Overlay boosts big-field Irish winner, but:
Raw layer still penalises the long 201-day absence
Model view: top 3, but not streets clear of Chicker/Clovis at all.
Solid Each-Way / Place Players
ONLYFORFRANKIE – +6.5
Good Roscommon win + strong Kilbeggan run
No huge Cheltenham/soft upgrade, but raw form is very solid.
HAWKS ROCK / SINCHI ROCA / WONDER FLYING – all +5
Hawks Rock: big Galway form, big-field stamina, soft-sire
Sinchi Roca: heavy-ground win + solid bumper efforts → great if it gets properly testing
Wonder Flying: back to that Cheltenham UK2 form line and now softer ground probably suits.
Cold / Ignore Types (on this model)
The Mad Poet: gets Skelton uplift but no real Cheltenham/soft angle.
Makingplansfor: small positive but outgunned on class.
Lucky Diamond, Lion City, Kampari, A Likeable Rogue, Eclat de Marvel: no real conditions or class positives in the data you supplied.
What This Says vs. The Market (using your odds line)
Evens Bud Fox vs 9/2 Chicker
Model has Chicker clearly ahead once Cheltenham-soft overlays are applied.
Saint Clovis (11/1) comes out closer to Bud Fox than the market suggests.
Big-price dangers flagged by the overlay:
Hawks Rock (22/1) – Galway + soft-sire
Wonder Flying (28/1) – key Cheltenham form + soft-sire
Sinchi Roca (11/1) – heavy winner, stamina angle.
I’ve only used:
The data you posted
Generic Cheltenham bumper + soft-ground logic
No external formbook, no extra HRB/HRR stuff
Final Scores After Cheltenham-Soft Overlays Base raw score ➜ after overlaysRank Horse Raw Score Cheltenham/Soft Overlay Final
1 Chicker +13.0 +3.0 +16.0
2 Saint Clovis +10.5 +2.5 +13.0
3 Bud Fox +7.0 +2.5 +9.5
4 Onlyforfrankie +6.0 +0.5 +6.5
5= Hawks Rock +2.0 +3.0 +5.0
5= Sinchi Roca +2.5 +2.5 +5.0
5= Wonder Flying +3.0 +2.0 +5.0
8 The Mad Poet +3.0 0 +3.0
9 Makingplansfor –1.0 +1.0 0.0
10= Eclat De Marvel –3.0 +1.0 –2.0
10= Lucky Diamond –2.0 0 –2.0
12= A Likeable Rogue –3.0 0 –3.0
12= Lion City –2.5 –0.5 –3.0
14 Kampari –4.0 0 –4.0
What the Cheltenham / Soft Overlay Actually Did Got upgradedCHICKER (+3)
Big boost for:
Cheltenham win in a UK2 bumper (same C&D)
Sire Frontiersman with good soft/going stats
Already unbeaten
Overlay says: handles the track, handles this level, and should stay on soft.
SAINT CLOVIS (+2.5)
Two huge Irish fields (18 & 19 runners) show big-field stamina
Irish bumper style + softish tendencies help in a soft Cheltenham Listed
He doesn’t have track experience, but his profile screams “big galloping bumper”.
BUD FOX (+2.5)
Punchestown 24-runner win → serious big-field stamina tick
Walk In The Park stallion has very solid going stats
Overlay respects him as proper Listed bumper horse, but he still has the 201-day layoff dragging his raw score a bit.
HAWKS ROCK (+3)
Massive upgrade on:
Galway 2nd of 16 (9k) → proven in a big, deep Irish bumper
Stallion Jukebox Jury with strong soft/going stats
Still let down by trainer/jockey cold stats in the raw layer, but conditions are bang right.
SINCHI ROCA (+2.5)
Heavy-ground win at Taunton + Getaway as sire = strong soft/heavy profile
Cheltenham soft is a stamina test; this overlay LOVES that Taunton heavy win.
WONDER FLYING (+2)
Ran 5th in the same Cheltenham UK2 bumper as Chicker → proven track/field
Sire Masked Marvel with very good soft/going stats
Overlay says: handled the track, will improve with softer ground / stronger test.
MAKINGPLANSFOR (+1)
2nd on good-to-soft at Newton Abbot + decent going stats for Telescope
Gets a small soft/stamina nudge.
Got downgraded (or left where they were)LION CITY (–0.5)
Heavy run at Naas was poor
Sire Dubawi has a great flat record but not a soft/staying NH profile
Stiff, soft Cheltenham bumper looks against him on this data.
KAMPARI, A LIKEABLE ROGUE, ECLAT DE MARVEL, LUCKY DIAMOND
No proven soft/stiff/track angles or got hammered in modest races
Overlays don’t rescue them.
Interpreting the Final Picture Top Tier (proper contenders)CHICKER – Final +16
Unbeaten (2/2), including a win in the key Cheltenham UK2 trial
Massive raw score and big Cheltenham/soft boost
On your data-only model, he is clearly ahead of the favourite.
SAINT CLOVIS – Final +13
Two massive-field Irish bumper runs with great subform
Overlay loves him for a strongly-run soft Cheltenham Listed
Very live danger and big price vs score.
BUD FOX – Final +9.5
Best single piece of form in the race (24-runner Punchestown win)
Overlay boosts big-field Irish winner, but:
Raw layer still penalises the long 201-day absence
Model view: top 3, but not streets clear of Chicker/Clovis at all.
Solid Each-Way / Place PlayersONLYFORFRANKIE – +6.5
Good Roscommon win + strong Kilbeggan run
No huge Cheltenham/soft upgrade, but raw form is very solid.
HAWKS ROCK / SINCHI ROCA / WONDER FLYING – all +5
Hawks Rock: big Galway form, big-field stamina, soft-sire
Sinchi Roca: heavy-ground win + solid bumper efforts → great if it gets properly testing
Wonder Flying: back to that Cheltenham UK2 form line and now softer ground probably suits.
Cold / Ignore Types (on this model)The Mad Poet: gets Skelton uplift but no real Cheltenham/soft angle.
Makingplansfor: small positive but outgunned on class.
Lucky Diamond, Lion City, Kampari, A Likeable Rogue, Eclat de Marvel: no real conditions or class positives in the data you supplied.
What This Says vs. The Market (using your odds line)Evens Bud Fox vs 9/2 Chicker
Model has Chicker clearly ahead once Cheltenham-soft overlays are applied.
Saint Clovis (11/1) comes out closer to Bud Fox than the market suggests.
Big-price dangers flagged by the overlay:
Hawks Rock (22/1) – Galway + soft-sire
Wonder Flying (28/1) – key Cheltenham form + soft-sire
Sinchi Roca (11/1) – heavy winner, stamina angle.
NAVAN BUMPER
STEP 1 — Convert Raw Scores → A/B/C/D Grades
Using your standard thresholds:
A = Elite / standout (≥ +13)
B = Strong contenders (+8 to +12)
C = Outside place possibilities (+3 to +7)
D = Low probability (≤ +2)
Grades Assigned
Horse Score Grade
Closutton (IRE) +19 A+
Easter Bonnet (FR) +15 A
Churchfield Annie (IRE) +13 A−
Oldschool Outlaw (IRE) +12 B+
Caoimhe (IRE) +10 B
Some Pretender +7 C+
Brosna Shine +5 C
Brosna Queen +4 C
Royal Hillsborough –1 D
Louve Darc –9 D−
STEP 2 — Convert Raw Scores → Percentages
Method:
Convert each score to 0–100 scale by proportional normalisation
Highest score = 100%
Others expressed relative to the top
Top score = 19 → treated as 100%
Percentage = (score / 19) × 100
Percentages
Horse Score % Chance (Raw Data Only)
Closutton 19 100%
Easter Bonnet 15 79%
Churchfield Annie 13 68%
Oldschool Outlaw 12 63%
Caoimhe 10 53%
Some Pretender 7 37%
Brosna Shine 5 26%
Brosna Queen 4 21%
Royal Hillsborough –1 0% (Fails baseline)
Louve Darc –9 0% (Fails baseline)
STEP 3 — Apply NH ENGINE v3 Overlays
This includes:
• NH Pace Engine (bumpers template)
Navan, soft/heavy → stamina + trackers/handy types rewarded
Avoid deep hold-ups
Emmet Mullins / Elliott pace setups usually aggressive
• Trainer Database (Unified)
Mullins (WP & Emmet) +5% to +10%
Elliott +4%
Cromwell +3%
Small yards = 0%
• Jumping Ability Overlay
In bumpers → defaults to neutral unless clear traveller profile
• Race-Type Trigger Overlays (Bumpers):
Trackers/handy types +5%
Deep closers –5%
Listed mares bumper: mare strength matters — Mullins mares get +8% historical edge
• Soft/Heavy galloping track (Navan) bias:
Stamina pedigrees +7%
Poor-ground sires –5%
NH ENGINE v3 FINAL ADJUSTED SCORES
Apply overlays (cap at ±25%):
Closutton (IRE)
Base 100%
Mullins mares bumper edge +8%
Soft-ground sire +5%
Pace suitable (handy) +5%
→ 118% → capped to 125% → final = 100%
(Stays top)
Easter Bonnet (FR)
79% base
Mullins boost +8%
Doctor Dino = soft-ground monster +10%
Handy style +5%
→ 79 × 1.23 = 97%
Churchfield Annie (IRE)
68% base
Emmet Mullins bumper overlay +7%
Stamina pedigree +7%
Track/trainer record +5%
→ 68 × 1.19 = 81%
Oldschool Outlaw (IRE)
63% base
Elliott listed-bumper record +5%
Walk In The Park soft-ground +7%
→ 63 × 1.12 = 70%
Caoimhe (IRE)
53% base
Cromwell bumper record +5%
Blue Bresil → excellent on soft +6%
→ 53 × 1.11 = 59%
Some Pretender
37% base
Mullins factor +8%
→ 37 × 1.08 = 40%
Brosna Shine / Brosna Queen
C-tier → no overlays change the picture
Final ≈ 20–25%
Royal Hillsborough / Louve Darc
Remain 0% after engine filters.
FINAL NH ENGINE v3 RANKING (REAL-WORLD VERSION)
A-Tier (Win candidates)
Closutton (IRE) — 100%
Easter Bonnet (FR) — 97%
Churchfield Annie (IRE) — 81%
B-Tier (Place danger)
Oldschool Outlaw (IRE) — 70%
Caoimhe (IRE) — 59%
C-Tier (Needs luck)
Some Pretender — 40%
Brosna Shine — 25%
Brosna Queen — 21%
D-Tier (No realistic chance)
Royal Hillsborough
Louve Darc
MAIN BET
Closutton (IRE) – Win
Why:
Highest raw score (19), graded A+
Perfect profile for a Listed mares’ bumper
Mullins mare + strong soft-ground sire angle
Proven winning form and pace setup ideal at Navan
NH Engine v3 → capped max rating (100%)
Win target: Closutton (IRE)
Stands out on every metric.
NEXT BEST (NB)
Easter Bonnet (FR)
Why:
Unbeaten
Doctor Dino = elite soft-heavy bumper sire
Mullins again, with extremely strong 20-day form
NH Engine adjusted probability ~97% of leader
Much safer than market suggests (7/4 fair)
Next Best: Easter Bonnet (FR)
BEST LONGSHOT
Oldschool Outlaw (IRE) (currently 7/2 but drifting)
Why is she a longshot?
She has big upside vs market because:
Form in a Grade 2 bumper
Walk In The Park + Elliott = massive Listed bumper upgrade
Strong stamina for soft-heavy Navan
Raw score: B+
NH Engine v3: 70% after adjustments
She stays, she handles the mud, she has proper depth.
If you want a true outsider (16/1+) the next value play is:
Churchfield Annie (10/1)
Emmet Mullins bomber
Figures extremely well on raw score
Excellent pace setup
Came out as A− tier
But your top longshot on EV:
Oldschool Outlaw (IRE)
Final Suggested Slip
WIN — Closutton (IRE)
NB — Easter Bonnet (FR)
LONGSHOT — Oldschool Outlaw (IRE)
Optional long outsider: Churchfield Annie 10/1
STEP 1 — Convert Raw Scores → A/B/C/D GradesUsing your standard thresholds:
A = Elite / standout (≥ +13)
B = Strong contenders (+8 to +12)
C = Outside place possibilities (+3 to +7)
D = Low probability (≤ +2)
Grades Assigned
Horse Score Grade
Closutton (IRE) +19 A+
Easter Bonnet (FR) +15 A
Churchfield Annie (IRE) +13 A−
Oldschool Outlaw (IRE) +12 B+
Caoimhe (IRE) +10 B
Some Pretender +7 C+
Brosna Shine +5 C
Brosna Queen +4 C
Royal Hillsborough –1 D
Louve Darc –9 D−
STEP 2 — Convert Raw Scores → PercentagesMethod:
Convert each score to 0–100 scale by proportional normalisation
Highest score = 100%
Others expressed relative to the top
Top score = 19 → treated as 100%
Percentage = (score / 19) × 100
Percentages
Horse Score % Chance (Raw Data Only)
Closutton 19 100%
Easter Bonnet 15 79%
Churchfield Annie 13 68%
Oldschool Outlaw 12 63%
Caoimhe 10 53%
Some Pretender 7 37%
Brosna Shine 5 26%
Brosna Queen 4 21%
Royal Hillsborough –1 0% (Fails baseline)
Louve Darc –9 0% (Fails baseline)
STEP 3 — Apply NH ENGINE v3 OverlaysThis includes:
• NH Pace Engine (bumpers template)
Navan, soft/heavy → stamina + trackers/handy types rewarded
Avoid deep hold-ups
Emmet Mullins / Elliott pace setups usually aggressive
• Trainer Database (Unified)
Mullins (WP & Emmet) +5% to +10%
Elliott +4%
Cromwell +3%
Small yards = 0%
• Jumping Ability Overlay
In bumpers → defaults to neutral unless clear traveller profile
• Race-Type Trigger Overlays (Bumpers):
Trackers/handy types +5%
Deep closers –5%
Listed mares bumper: mare strength matters — Mullins mares get +8% historical edge
• Soft/Heavy galloping track (Navan) bias:
Stamina pedigrees +7%
Poor-ground sires –5%
NH ENGINE v3 FINAL ADJUSTED SCORESApply overlays (cap at ±25%):
Closutton (IRE)
Base 100%
Mullins mares bumper edge +8%
Soft-ground sire +5%
Pace suitable (handy) +5%
→ 118% → capped to 125% → final = 100%
(Stays top)
Easter Bonnet (FR)
79% base
Mullins boost +8%
Doctor Dino = soft-ground monster +10%
Handy style +5%
→ 79 × 1.23 = 97%
Churchfield Annie (IRE)
68% base
Emmet Mullins bumper overlay +7%
Stamina pedigree +7%
Track/trainer record +5%
→ 68 × 1.19 = 81%
Oldschool Outlaw (IRE)
63% base
Elliott listed-bumper record +5%
Walk In The Park soft-ground +7%
→ 63 × 1.12 = 70%
Caoimhe (IRE)
53% base
Cromwell bumper record +5%
Blue Bresil → excellent on soft +6%
→ 53 × 1.11 = 59%
Some Pretender
37% base
Mullins factor +8%
→ 37 × 1.08 = 40%
Brosna Shine / Brosna Queen
C-tier → no overlays change the picture
Final ≈ 20–25%
Royal Hillsborough / Louve Darc
Remain 0% after engine filters.
FINAL NH ENGINE v3 RANKING (REAL-WORLD VERSION)A-Tier (Win candidates)
Closutton (IRE) — 100%
Easter Bonnet (FR) — 97%
Churchfield Annie (IRE) — 81%
B-Tier (Place danger)
Oldschool Outlaw (IRE) — 70%
Caoimhe (IRE) — 59%
C-Tier (Needs luck)
Some Pretender — 40%
Brosna Shine — 25%
Brosna Queen — 21%
D-Tier (No realistic chance)
Royal Hillsborough
Louve Darc
MAIN BETClosutton (IRE) – Win
Why:
Highest raw score (19), graded A+
Perfect profile for a Listed mares’ bumper
Mullins mare + strong soft-ground sire angle
Proven winning form and pace setup ideal at Navan
NH Engine v3 → capped max rating (100%)
Win target: Closutton (IRE)
Stands out on every metric.
NEXT BEST (NB)Easter Bonnet (FR)
Why:
Unbeaten
Doctor Dino = elite soft-heavy bumper sire
Mullins again, with extremely strong 20-day form
NH Engine adjusted probability ~97% of leader
Much safer than market suggests (7/4 fair)
Next Best: Easter Bonnet (FR)
BEST LONGSHOTOldschool Outlaw (IRE) (currently 7/2 but drifting)
Why is she a longshot?
She has big upside vs market because:
Form in a Grade 2 bumper
Walk In The Park + Elliott = massive Listed bumper upgrade
Strong stamina for soft-heavy Navan
Raw score: B+
NH Engine v3: 70% after adjustments
She stays, she handles the mud, she has proper depth.
If you want a true outsider (16/1+) the next value play is:
Churchfield Annie (10/1)Emmet Mullins bomber
Figures extremely well on raw score
Excellent pace setup
Came out as A− tier
But your top longshot on EV:
Oldschool Outlaw (IRE) Final Suggested SlipWIN — Closutton (IRE)
NB — Easter Bonnet (FR)
LONGSHOT — Oldschool Outlaw (IRE)
Optional long outsider: Churchfield Annie 10/1
Sun 23 Nov 2025 – Punchestown 3.35
Jimmy Hayes Memorial (Pro/Am) NH Flat Race
2m1f (3717 yards)
Soft to Heavy
Right-handed
4yo+
6 runners
Win £5575
All horses OR = 0
HRB ratings supplied by you
Sire, Trainer, Dam data all provided and used
FINAL COMBINED SCORING (Your Data Only)
Each horse received a score based solely on:
HRB (scaled 0–100)
Sire Win% (from “All” column)
Trainer Win% (from “All” column)
Dam Win%
Final Score = Average of the four values
(no weighting, no assumptions)
FINAL RANKING
Rank Horse Combined Score
1 Treasure Memory 28.9
2 Its Only A Game 25.2
3 Paymelater 15.35
4 Speculateur 14.4
5 Drombane 11.5
6 Boycetown 9.7
FINAL CHOICES (Strictly From Your Data)
1st Choice — TREASURE MEMORY
Why (from your data):
Highest HRB: 175
Respectable sire + trainer + dam contributions relative to field
Best overall combined score from all data sources
2nd Choice — ITS ONLY A GAME
Why (from your data):
Second-highest HRB: 157
Trainer stats moderate
Dam has 1 run only (neutral)
Combined score strong due to HRB dominance
3rd Choice — PAYMELATER
Why:
Good HRB (97) keeps him above Speculateur and Drombane in total
Sire/trainer/dam stats weak but HRB keeps him in mid-group
FINAL SUMMARY STATEMENT
Based solely on the data you posted — HRB, sire win%, trainer win%, dam win%, and no external inputs — Treasure Memory is the top-rated runner for the 3.35 Punchestown bumper, followed by Its Only A Game, with Paymelater and Speculateur forming the next group, and Drombane and Boycetown ranking lowest on the combined metrics.
Jimmy Hayes Memorial (Pro/Am) NH Flat Race
2m1f (3717 yards)
Soft to Heavy
Right-handed
4yo+
6 runners
Win £5575
All horses OR = 0
HRB ratings supplied by you
Sire, Trainer, Dam data all provided and used
FINAL COMBINED SCORING (Your Data Only)Each horse received a score based solely on:
HRB (scaled 0–100)
Sire Win% (from “All” column)
Trainer Win% (from “All” column)
Dam Win%
Final Score = Average of the four values
(no weighting, no assumptions)
FINAL RANKINGRank Horse Combined Score
1 Treasure Memory 28.9
2 Its Only A Game 25.2
3 Paymelater 15.35
4 Speculateur 14.4
5 Drombane 11.5
6 Boycetown 9.7
FINAL CHOICES (Strictly From Your Data) 1st Choice — TREASURE MEMORYWhy (from your data):
Highest HRB: 175
Respectable sire + trainer + dam contributions relative to field
Best overall combined score from all data sources
2nd Choice — ITS ONLY A GAMEWhy (from your data):
Second-highest HRB: 157
Trainer stats moderate
Dam has 1 run only (neutral)
Combined score strong due to HRB dominance
3rd Choice — PAYMELATERWhy:
Good HRB (97) keeps him above Speculateur and Drombane in total
Sire/trainer/dam stats weak but HRB keeps him in mid-group
FINAL SUMMARY STATEMENTBased solely on the data you posted — HRB, sire win%, trainer win%, dam win%, and no external inputs — Treasure Memory is the top-rated runner for the 3.35 Punchestown bumper, followed by Its Only A Game, with Paymelater and Speculateur forming the next group, and Drombane and Boycetown ranking lowest on the combined metrics.
jinnyj
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Jan 8, 2004
- Messages
- 5,563
Meant to say that I was pretty taken with the types in the Wincanton bumper last Thursday (20th Nov) - Honeyball had three in it of which I was told the winner would win. But his others were nice too (second and unplaced though v green)
1. Bailey's Comet
2. Champ Cabal
3. Roximan (this was Nicholls which was the standout pick in the paddock and will make up into a very nice novice hurdler - plus they really like him a lot)
All horses ran pretty green but I did like them and I think worth keeping an eye on. Bryony Frost's mount too ran well to finish 4th when threatening.
1. Bailey's Comet
2. Champ Cabal
3. Roximan (this was Nicholls which was the standout pick in the paddock and will make up into a very nice novice hurdler - plus they really like him a lot)
All horses ran pretty green but I did like them and I think worth keeping an eye on. Bryony Frost's mount too ran well to finish 4th when threatening.
chaumi
Rookie
Surprise, surprise, all three Honeyball's have entries in the Newbury Spring Sales bumper (now known as the Goffs Hundred Grand) in March. As does Roximan. It could be that Crest of Arms (the unplaced one here) will be the most fancied Honeyball runner come the day.
If it ends up with a Roximan - Crest Of Arms 1-2, your post will have earned framing in the 'I can see the future' hall of fame, Jinnyj
Thu 27th Nov 2025
3.52 Taunton (11 runners)
South West Rail Solutions Ltd Open
NH Flat Race (GBB Race)
2m½f (3624 yards +30 yards rails adjustment)
Class 5, Good, 4-5yo, Win: £2640
Avg OR : 0, Median OR : 0
Right Handed
FINAL HRR v3.0 SCORES (ALL DATA COMBINED)
Rank Horse FINAL HRR Score Notes
1 Arms Park 100 Form horse + Cobden + Walk In The Park + pace fit
2 No Risk Today 98 Big improver after sire overlay, nearly joint-top
3 Cantys Cove 82 Drops slightly but Snowden NHF still very strong
4 Religious Cross 82 Ties with Cantys Cove; Passing Glance speed helps
5 Louis Des Landes 80 French type + Tizzard + slight sire boost
6 Mad World 68 Hood + Moore positives, sire pulls down
7 Four Decades 64 Worcester SubForm OK → midpack
8 Lord Virginia 61 Better than raw form, sire small upgrade
9 No Hard Feelings 59 Sire negative + poor trainer stats
10 Devon Paige 48 Dartmouth = stamina → wrong for Taunton
11 Tenshillings 45 Weakest profile across all modules
Top 2 now extremely close: 100 vs 98
Stallion and trainer stats confirm this is a two-runner race.
FINAL VERDICT (ABSOLUTE FINAL MODEL)
WIN — ARMS PARK
Strongest actual race form
Walk In The Park bumper sire
Cobden booking
Pace map advantage
Best HRB (125)
Overall 100/100
MAIN DANGER — NO RISK TODAY
Sire “No Risk At All” is exceptional on Good ground
Fergal O’Brien NHF strike-rate is elite
5yo → physical edge
Final score: 98/100
BEST OF THE REST — CANTYS COVE & RELIGIOUS CROSS
Snowden 28% NHF vs Passing Glance speed tactics
Both rated high next tier
VALUE EW — LOUIS DES LANDES (FR)
3.52 Taunton (11 runners)
South West Rail Solutions Ltd Open
NH Flat Race (GBB Race)
2m½f (3624 yards +30 yards rails adjustment)
Class 5, Good, 4-5yo, Win: £2640
Avg OR : 0, Median OR : 0
Right Handed
FINAL HRR v3.0 SCORES (ALL DATA COMBINED)Rank Horse FINAL HRR Score Notes
1 Arms Park 100 Form horse + Cobden + Walk In The Park + pace fit
2 No Risk Today 98 Big improver after sire overlay, nearly joint-top
3 Cantys Cove 82 Drops slightly but Snowden NHF still very strong
4 Religious Cross 82 Ties with Cantys Cove; Passing Glance speed helps
5 Louis Des Landes 80 French type + Tizzard + slight sire boost
6 Mad World 68 Hood + Moore positives, sire pulls down
7 Four Decades 64 Worcester SubForm OK → midpack
8 Lord Virginia 61 Better than raw form, sire small upgrade
9 No Hard Feelings 59 Sire negative + poor trainer stats
10 Devon Paige 48 Dartmouth = stamina → wrong for Taunton
11 Tenshillings 45 Weakest profile across all modules
Top 2 now extremely close: 100 vs 98
Stallion and trainer stats confirm this is a two-runner race.
FINAL VERDICT (ABSOLUTE FINAL MODEL)WIN — ARMS PARK
Strongest actual race form
Walk In The Park bumper sire
Cobden booking
Pace map advantage
Best HRB (125)
Overall 100/100
MAIN DANGER — NO RISK TODAY
Sire “No Risk At All” is exceptional on Good ground
Fergal O’Brien NHF strike-rate is elite
5yo → physical edge
Final score: 98/100
BEST OF THE REST — CANTYS COVE & RELIGIOUS CROSS
Snowden 28% NHF vs Passing Glance speed tactics
Both rated high next tier
VALUE EW — LOUIS DES LANDES (FR)
3.38 Exeter – NH Flat Race (Bumper) – Final Race DossierDate: Friday 5 December 2025
Race: Ludo Sports & Live Lounge Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)
Class: 5
Runners: 16
Distance: 2m1f (3681y + 20y)
Course: Exeter (Right-handed, stiff climb)
Going: Good to Soft
Age: 4–5yo
Prize: £2,178 to winner
Race Shape & Pace
Bumpers at Exeter historically run steady–average early → sprint late.
Handy/tracking types best; deep closers disadvantaged.
FINAL HRR v3 RANKINGS – ALL MODELS APPLIEDThese are the final numeric outputs after every module is integrated.
Rank Horse FINAL HRR Score Notes
1 JPR TWO
98 Strongest overall: Nicholls bumper profile, powerful sire (Poet’s Word), high-class dam (Lady Knightess), ideal pace position. Clear #1.2 HES SOMETHING 96 Huge dam upgrade (Fortunes Harvest), Skelton/Durrell hot, strong sire (Jukebox Jury), sits just behind top pick.
3 PAR AVION 82 Good Fry bumper angle, Carver hot, Crystal Ocean progeny strong. Only negative: dam very weak. Solid place chance.
4 SIRGREG 76 Getaway sire (elite bumper lines), dam positive, Hobbs cold but still a major place contender.
5 Sailing By 68 Experience helps; sire moderate; Tizzard/Powell in form. Place only.
6 Shanagolden Girl 67 O’Brien bumper strength but cold recent form; dam neutral. EW outsider.
7 Analitheia 56 Hot jockey; sire strong; limited otherwise. Place if improving.
8 Baile An Or 53 Neutral dam, fair sire, limited upside.
9 Regal Icon 46 Weak dam, weak sire, trainer cold.
10 Getavispa 31 Strong sire (Getaway) but trainer negative, no other positives.
11 Lakeview Lass 29 Dam neutral, limited stats.
12 Dreamfyre Dancer 30 Dam negative, sire weak.
13 Topsham Tide 26 Unknown dam ability, trainer cold.
14 Mr Winter 24 Dam poor, sire weak.
15 Keepsoldieringon 20 Dam/sire both negative.
16 Im Wide Awake 18 Worst dam metrics in field; minimal chance.
SUMMARY OF FINDINGSWINNER LIKELY: JPR TWO
Strongest statistical footprint across every major module.
Nicholls excels with bumper debutants at Exeter.
Sire & dam both highly positive.
Expected handy position = significant edge.
MAIN DANGER: HES SOMETHING
Almost match for JPR Two after dam upgrade.
Skelton stable hot in the last fortnight.
Perfect bumper pedigree (Jukebox Jury × Fortunes Harvest).
BEST VALUE EW: SIRGREG
Elite sire (Getaway).
Dam positive.
Yard cold, which is the only negative.
Still ranks in top 4 after all modules.
SOLID PLACE: PAR AVION
Trainer/jockey form very strong.
Crystal Ocean progeny thrive in bumpers.
Dam poor → ceiling slightly capped for win.
OUTSIDERS:
Anything ranked 9th or below would need major improvement and/or pace collapse.
