and bigger on the exchanges - GL today reet
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Todays Racing -----England--Ireland
- Thread starter luckyme
- Start date
1340 Carlisle Letos
Won a Listed Handicap Hurdle last time out at a price of 11’s.
Hard race to gauge as there was a heavy favourite at 6/5 who finished 9th and only one horse from the field has gone on to win – Staffordshire Knot who’s won twice since.
That win was over 2m4f off a mark of 119 and the weight carried was 10st 8lbs.
Steps up to 3m 1f today, a Class drop to Class 2, off a mark of 131 and has been allocated top weight of 12 st.
So, it’s a big 1stone 4lbs extra on his back and a rise of 12lbs in the handicap and he has to carry it over 5 furlongs further.
The Sire has only been operating for a couple of years, and his Hurdle record is 8/81.
As far as hurdlers go, the record when over 2m 1f is 2/35 so the return isn’t guaranteed.
An anomaly is that the progeny when carrying over more than 11st 7lbs are 0/18.
Breeding does raise a few questions about this race.
Trends wise don’t help its cause either.
Top weights have a record of 0/10 and favourites 2/10.
This is going to be a lot harder that the race last time and local knowledge from horse/trainers and jockeys may prove key with that uphill finish.
Opposable for me as it has it all to prove.
Won a Listed Handicap Hurdle last time out at a price of 11’s.
Hard race to gauge as there was a heavy favourite at 6/5 who finished 9th and only one horse from the field has gone on to win – Staffordshire Knot who’s won twice since.
That win was over 2m4f off a mark of 119 and the weight carried was 10st 8lbs.
Steps up to 3m 1f today, a Class drop to Class 2, off a mark of 131 and has been allocated top weight of 12 st.
So, it’s a big 1stone 4lbs extra on his back and a rise of 12lbs in the handicap and he has to carry it over 5 furlongs further.
The Sire has only been operating for a couple of years, and his Hurdle record is 8/81.
As far as hurdlers go, the record when over 2m 1f is 2/35 so the return isn’t guaranteed.
An anomaly is that the progeny when carrying over more than 11st 7lbs are 0/18.
Breeding does raise a few questions about this race.
Trends wise don’t help its cause either.
Top weights have a record of 0/10 and favourites 2/10.
This is going to be a lot harder that the race last time and local knowledge from horse/trainers and jockeys may prove key with that uphill finish.
Opposable for me as it has it all to prove.
Buyer beware.....some of these do win.
1320 Naas Larzac
Simplistic viewpoint on this one driven by Jockeys.
I would presume Townend had the choice of horses here and opted for Lincoln Du Seuil.
He hasn’t ridden either horse competitively, so the presumption is work at home has assisted in selection.
Larzac’s Jockey is one that I’m not a fan of but apart from that bias the stats don’t support him here.
Over the last 5 years the Course record is 1/72 and Hurdles wise that becomes 0/55 and only 4 places.
The Hurdle record with today’s Trainer over the same period is 1/13.
Jockey’s current form is very questionable with the last 30 days showing 0/43. Hurdles wise that becomes 0/27.
In a 23 runner field at a forecast price of around 9/4 I’d want a better Jockey onboard, so it has to be opposed for me.
1320 Naas Larzac
Simplistic viewpoint on this one driven by Jockeys.
I would presume Townend had the choice of horses here and opted for Lincoln Du Seuil.
He hasn’t ridden either horse competitively, so the presumption is work at home has assisted in selection.
Larzac’s Jockey is one that I’m not a fan of but apart from that bias the stats don’t support him here.
Over the last 5 years the Course record is 1/72 and Hurdles wise that becomes 0/55 and only 4 places.
The Hurdle record with today’s Trainer over the same period is 1/13.
Jockey’s current form is very questionable with the last 30 days showing 0/43. Hurdles wise that becomes 0/27.
In a 23 runner field at a forecast price of around 9/4 I’d want a better Jockey onboard, so it has to be opposed for me.
1450 Southwell Ritaal
Very basic here as I’m taking on the Jockey.
Record at the Course the last 5 years is 42/362 and CD wise that becomes 6/85.
Of those 6 CD wins, five were out of stalls 1-4.
When drawn higher than that the record is 1/43 and just 3 other places.
For whatever reason he appears to struggle outside those bottom 4 stalls.
His record with 2yo’s at the Course the last 5 years isn’t impressive with 1/27 and CD wise it becomes 0/8.
On all surfaces his current losing run when riding 2yo’s is 28.
He doesn’t appear the right man for the job and I have to oppose.
Very basic here as I’m taking on the Jockey.
Record at the Course the last 5 years is 42/362 and CD wise that becomes 6/85.
Of those 6 CD wins, five were out of stalls 1-4.
When drawn higher than that the record is 1/43 and just 3 other places.
For whatever reason he appears to struggle outside those bottom 4 stalls.
His record with 2yo’s at the Course the last 5 years isn’t impressive with 1/27 and CD wise it becomes 0/8.
On all surfaces his current losing run when riding 2yo’s is 28.
He doesn’t appear the right man for the job and I have to oppose.
Good man Simon, not in the first three, trainer comments below
Ritaal
William Muir & Chris Grassick
We have just bought him from the Shadwell Stud. He had two runs for Owen Burrows, finishing second twice. He has settled in nicely and is in good form. I am pretty confident he will run close today.
Ritaal
William Muir & Chris Grassick
We have just bought him from the Shadwell Stud. He had two runs for Owen Burrows, finishing second twice. He has settled in nicely and is in good form. I am pretty confident he will run close today.
Danny
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2013
- Messages
- 2,543
I was really keen on Bad too Reet as i thought the drop back in trip and easier track would suit after how well he travelled through the PP. I hadn't realised until now that he's 0/7 at the track, I find that a bit off putting
The Paddy Power was a PB though,so I'll stick with him anyway.I was really keen on Bad too Reet as i thought the drop back in trip and easier track would suit after how well he travelled through the PP. I hadn't realised until now that he's 0/7 at the track, I find that a bit off putting
