and bigger on the exchanges - GL today reet
-
REGISTER NOW!! Why? Because you can't do much without having been registered!
At the moment you have limited access to view all discussions - and most importantly, you haven't joined our community. What are you waiting for? Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join Join Talking Horses here!
Todays Racing -----England--Ireland
- Thread starter luckyme
- Start date
1340 Carlisle Letos
Won a Listed Handicap Hurdle last time out at a price of 11’s.
Hard race to gauge as there was a heavy favourite at 6/5 who finished 9th and only one horse from the field has gone on to win – Staffordshire Knot who’s won twice since.
That win was over 2m4f off a mark of 119 and the weight carried was 10st 8lbs.
Steps up to 3m 1f today, a Class drop to Class 2, off a mark of 131 and has been allocated top weight of 12 st.
So, it’s a big 1stone 4lbs extra on his back and a rise of 12lbs in the handicap and he has to carry it over 5 furlongs further.
The Sire has only been operating for a couple of years, and his Hurdle record is 8/81.
As far as hurdlers go, the record when over 2m 1f is 2/35 so the return isn’t guaranteed.
An anomaly is that the progeny when carrying over more than 11st 7lbs are 0/18.
Breeding does raise a few questions about this race.
Trends wise don’t help its cause either.
Top weights have a record of 0/10 and favourites 2/10.
This is going to be a lot harder that the race last time and local knowledge from horse/trainers and jockeys may prove key with that uphill finish.
Opposable for me as it has it all to prove.
Won a Listed Handicap Hurdle last time out at a price of 11’s.
Hard race to gauge as there was a heavy favourite at 6/5 who finished 9th and only one horse from the field has gone on to win – Staffordshire Knot who’s won twice since.
That win was over 2m4f off a mark of 119 and the weight carried was 10st 8lbs.
Steps up to 3m 1f today, a Class drop to Class 2, off a mark of 131 and has been allocated top weight of 12 st.
So, it’s a big 1stone 4lbs extra on his back and a rise of 12lbs in the handicap and he has to carry it over 5 furlongs further.
The Sire has only been operating for a couple of years, and his Hurdle record is 8/81.
As far as hurdlers go, the record when over 2m 1f is 2/35 so the return isn’t guaranteed.
An anomaly is that the progeny when carrying over more than 11st 7lbs are 0/18.
Breeding does raise a few questions about this race.
Trends wise don’t help its cause either.
Top weights have a record of 0/10 and favourites 2/10.
This is going to be a lot harder that the race last time and local knowledge from horse/trainers and jockeys may prove key with that uphill finish.
Opposable for me as it has it all to prove.
Buyer beware.....some of these do win.
1320 Naas Larzac
Simplistic viewpoint on this one driven by Jockeys.
I would presume Townend had the choice of horses here and opted for Lincoln Du Seuil.
He hasn’t ridden either horse competitively, so the presumption is work at home has assisted in selection.
Larzac’s Jockey is one that I’m not a fan of but apart from that bias the stats don’t support him here.
Over the last 5 years the Course record is 1/72 and Hurdles wise that becomes 0/55 and only 4 places.
The Hurdle record with today’s Trainer over the same period is 1/13.
Jockey’s current form is very questionable with the last 30 days showing 0/43. Hurdles wise that becomes 0/27.
In a 23 runner field at a forecast price of around 9/4 I’d want a better Jockey onboard, so it has to be opposed for me.
1320 Naas Larzac
Simplistic viewpoint on this one driven by Jockeys.
I would presume Townend had the choice of horses here and opted for Lincoln Du Seuil.
He hasn’t ridden either horse competitively, so the presumption is work at home has assisted in selection.
Larzac’s Jockey is one that I’m not a fan of but apart from that bias the stats don’t support him here.
Over the last 5 years the Course record is 1/72 and Hurdles wise that becomes 0/55 and only 4 places.
The Hurdle record with today’s Trainer over the same period is 1/13.
Jockey’s current form is very questionable with the last 30 days showing 0/43. Hurdles wise that becomes 0/27.
In a 23 runner field at a forecast price of around 9/4 I’d want a better Jockey onboard, so it has to be opposed for me.
1450 Southwell Ritaal
Very basic here as I’m taking on the Jockey.
Record at the Course the last 5 years is 42/362 and CD wise that becomes 6/85.
Of those 6 CD wins, five were out of stalls 1-4.
When drawn higher than that the record is 1/43 and just 3 other places.
For whatever reason he appears to struggle outside those bottom 4 stalls.
His record with 2yo’s at the Course the last 5 years isn’t impressive with 1/27 and CD wise it becomes 0/8.
On all surfaces his current losing run when riding 2yo’s is 28.
He doesn’t appear the right man for the job and I have to oppose.
Very basic here as I’m taking on the Jockey.
Record at the Course the last 5 years is 42/362 and CD wise that becomes 6/85.
Of those 6 CD wins, five were out of stalls 1-4.
When drawn higher than that the record is 1/43 and just 3 other places.
For whatever reason he appears to struggle outside those bottom 4 stalls.
His record with 2yo’s at the Course the last 5 years isn’t impressive with 1/27 and CD wise it becomes 0/8.
On all surfaces his current losing run when riding 2yo’s is 28.
He doesn’t appear the right man for the job and I have to oppose.
Good man Simon, not in the first three, trainer comments below
Ritaal
William Muir & Chris Grassick
We have just bought him from the Shadwell Stud. He had two runs for Owen Burrows, finishing second twice. He has settled in nicely and is in good form. I am pretty confident he will run close today.
Ritaal
William Muir & Chris Grassick
We have just bought him from the Shadwell Stud. He had two runs for Owen Burrows, finishing second twice. He has settled in nicely and is in good form. I am pretty confident he will run close today.
Danny
Journeyman
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2013
- Messages
- 2,481
I was really keen on Bad too Reet as i thought the drop back in trip and easier track would suit after how well he travelled through the PP. I hadn't realised until now that he's 0/7 at the track, I find that a bit off putting
The Paddy Power was a PB though,so I'll stick with him anyway.I was really keen on Bad too Reet as i thought the drop back in trip and easier track would suit after how well he travelled through the PP. I hadn't realised until now that he's 0/7 at the track, I find that a bit off putting
that yours or from somewhere else?
Nope - off the wall.
Jayhawk
Apprentice
No Ordinary Joe - 12:55 Haydock ( 0-130) , 9 runners, 14/1. Ex JP McManus/ Nicky Henderson so the connection between AP and the trainer is interesting.
Tbone
Amateur Rider
Was waiting for Jinnyj to post us a Christmas Yankee….
jinnyj
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Jan 8, 2004
- Messages
- 5,620
Oh Lordy! The pressure! I think there are far superior tipsters than me on here. I go in waves of some winning spells but mainly not. And I am down to 20p in my Betfair account so horror of horror I need to top up - this doesn't normally happen!
If I was sticking my neck out I would say Alexei (but a huge amount of that is sentiment due to me spotting him in that charity race but I seriously love the horse), Honesty Policy (that last run plus his beating of Regents Stroll is cracking form), I'm torn between Bad and The Famous Five (damn you Gordon and your Chadds theories!) and Saladins Son at Haydock (but that's purely based on the fact that I had a pony called Saladin). So as you can see - my reasons for picking horses pale into comparison with the stats and form boys on here!
If I was sticking my neck out I would say Alexei (but a huge amount of that is sentiment due to me spotting him in that charity race but I seriously love the horse), Honesty Policy (that last run plus his beating of Regents Stroll is cracking form), I'm torn between Bad and The Famous Five (damn you Gordon and your Chadds theories!) and Saladins Son at Haydock (but that's purely based on the fact that I had a pony called Saladin). So as you can see - my reasons for picking horses pale into comparison with the stats and form boys on here!
Tbone
Amateur Rider
Thank you .
no its from a guy who puts them up on our forum
1500 Ascot Pic Roc
A name that seems to have been around a long time, but its career record is 2/17.
The Chase side of that is 1/9 and the win came in a Class 3 Beginners Chase at Huntingdon over today’s distance on good going.
It was only a 4 runner field and it was allowed to dictate the race. The average OR of that race was 125.6.
Prior to that race it had been competing in Handicap Chases with no joy.
The record above Class 3 as far as Chases go is 0/4 and he’s never been in the top 4.
When the average OR of the race goes above 130 the record is 0/5.
Add to that a Sire record over the last 5 years, with Chasers on today’s going, of 0/46 and it doesn’t build confidence.
The overall profile is a Horse that is yet to win a Handicap, hasn’t been I the places at this level, hasn’t beaten anything when the average OR is this high and is from a Sire whose Chasers don’t like the going.
Should the 2nd favourite be double the price of this one?
Not in my view and the touted price is worth opposing.
A name that seems to have been around a long time, but its career record is 2/17.
The Chase side of that is 1/9 and the win came in a Class 3 Beginners Chase at Huntingdon over today’s distance on good going.
It was only a 4 runner field and it was allowed to dictate the race. The average OR of that race was 125.6.
Prior to that race it had been competing in Handicap Chases with no joy.
The record above Class 3 as far as Chases go is 0/4 and he’s never been in the top 4.
When the average OR of the race goes above 130 the record is 0/5.
Add to that a Sire record over the last 5 years, with Chasers on today’s going, of 0/46 and it doesn’t build confidence.
The overall profile is a Horse that is yet to win a Handicap, hasn’t been I the places at this level, hasn’t beaten anything when the average OR is this high and is from a Sire whose Chasers don’t like the going.
Should the 2nd favourite be double the price of this one?
Not in my view and the touted price is worth opposing.
B PAULING
23.4% 1 month win strike rate
(19.1% 1 year average)
33.8% 1 month place strike rate
(37.7% 1 year average)
18.3% win strike rate at:
Ascot (5 years)
15:00 Ascot
Pic Roc
3/1 (bet365)
"Pic Roc was a runaway winner at Huntingdon early last month, and then was in the process of getting close to the principals in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury when a serious late blunder stopped him in his tracks. That was terrific form and from his point at the bottom of this handicap, he will take plenty of beating."
Trainer
23.4% 1 month win strike rate
(19.1% 1 year average)
33.8% 1 month place strike rate
(37.7% 1 year average)
18.3% win strike rate at:
Ascot (5 years)
15:00 Ascot
Pic Roc
3/1 (bet365)
"Pic Roc was a runaway winner at Huntingdon early last month, and then was in the process of getting close to the principals in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury when a serious late blunder stopped him in his tracks. That was terrific form and from his point at the bottom of this handicap, he will take plenty of beating."
Trainer
