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Thyestes Handicap Chase.

I've decided to represent Slim during his enforced sabbatical.

"What would any of you know about the Thyestes Chase? After my recent spectacular success second-guessing 'The Great Man' in the Savills and the Lanzarote I'm considering giving you all the winner of this, but only if the majority of you campaign for my early release in the next 24 hours."

Returning to myself, if I knew Conyers Hill would relish the trip in the ground and jump round, I'd be interested at the right price, but The Baron Of Brighton and The Lord Of Leeds has some track record in races like this, so I'll defer to him.
 
Intense Raffles ( around 20/1 ) will be suited by the heavy ground. Since he won the 2024 Irish National he's run seven times with two of those being over hurdles, one over an inadequate trip, and three on going officially described as good to soft. He was pulled up in two of those at Aintree and Chepstow, but finished three-quarters of a length second to the 161 rated Nick Rockett when giving 3 pounds in last season's Bobbyjo Chase.

Trying to work out which one of Willie Mullins's contingent has the best chance looks far too difficult for me especially as nearly all of them are rated 150+ and Aintree may be their long-term targets. Shanbally Kid ( 25/1, and rated 137 ) went the long way round at Punchestown over almost four miles in the spring and still won by fifteen lengths. His sire is Presenting which may be a negative on the ground.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I've decided to represent Slim during his enforced sabbatical.

"What would any of you know about the Thyestes Chase? After my recent spectacular success second-guessing 'The Great Man' in the Savills and the Lanzarote I'm considering giving you all the winner of this, but only if the majority of you campaign for my early release in the next 24 hours."

Returning to myself, if I knew Conyers Hill would relish the trip in the ground and jump round, I'd be interested at the right price, but The Baron Of Brighton and The Lord Of Leeds has some track record in races like this, so I'll defer to him.
Click to expand...
Some of the worst placing you’d see by Paul Nolan. He should be going DRF handicap chase over 2m or even skipping both and going to a Grand Annual. I’m stunned he’s in this Conyers Hill.
 
Willie Mullins has won seven of the last 14 runnings, usually ridden by the stable's main jockey so my starting point would centre around Captain Cody.

I see Quai De Bourbon is declared but Hayes is a negative for one of my Grand National bets (I've backed it twice so far) but, a bit like Myretown, it needs another chase run to qualify so maybe this race - and getting a few pounds off it - is the reason foir its declaration.

I have QDB as potentially the best handicapped horse in the GN but as discussed not long ago it makes iffy jumpers look slick.
 
Logically, this will be a season target for Jordans. But, one would have hoped (expected?) to see JJ Slevin riding. And he's on Raffles (who, as already noted, appears to have a good chance on paper).
 
The big bad Cheltenham Festival is somewhere on the horizon.

Let's get back to plotting and scheming how to beat the bookmaker, and not how to beat each other.

You'd think the jumps season had just finished and we were about to embark on some flat handicap at Doncaster.
 
chaumi said:
Logically, this will be a season target for Jordans. But, one would have hoped (expected?) to see JJ Slevin riding. And he's on Raffles (who, as already noted, appears to have a good chance on paper).
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Jj Slevin is contracted to ride Raffles isn't he.
I've done Jordans.(also for the pertemps,which looked like a mistake now)

I think Robbi will get a good run from Velvet Elvis and I like Jayhawks two.
Intense Raffles and Shanbally kid.

You would have thought Willie wouldn't want to get penalties for his 150+ runners if they are to run in the National. So which one doesn't he think will stay the National trip.
At least Shanbally kid is only rated 137.
 
The worry with Shanbally is he seemingly needed the 4 miles at Punchestown to win, with the reasoning he liked it better jumping at the slower speed. The issue here is that even with heavy ground (if it is), there are a fair few that look likely to keep up the pace.

That said..

1. Shanbally wasn't that far behind at the Leopardstown finish. And maybe will be better for the run.
2. His 5 chase runs prior to the 4 miler were all at two and a half or less, so not surprising that he was struggling to jump well enough and go with them in those.
3. That effectively means we've only got the 4 miler to go on...so will this testing 3+ be enough to keep it all at a pace that he's comfortable at?
4. He's got a 3rd in a Coral Cup in his CV, indicating some class.

I'd have said 33 or higher would be pretty enticing to find out. But 25s SP could mean he's mid 30s/low-mid 40s on Betfair. That'll be interesting enough.

******

The one I don't want to win - but do confess to a small worry that he could go OK - is the Piper. I think he has a big race in him. But heavy ground at this distance will hopefully test the stamina far too much. Hoping for a back-of-midfield finish, then a big bang at either something over 3 on good, or maybe slightly less - for which there should be some tasty odds on offer.
 
chaumi said:
The worry with Shanbally is he seemingly needed the 4 miles at Punchestown to win, with the reasoning he liked it better jumping at the slower speed. The issue here is that even with heavy ground (if it is), there are a fair few that look likely to keep up the pace.

That said..

1. Shanbally wasn't that far behind at the Leopardstown finish. And maybe will be better for the run.
2. His 5 chase runs prior to the 4 miler were all at two and a half or less, so not surprising that he was struggling to jump well enough and go with them in those.
3. That effectively means we've only got the 4 miler to go on...so will this testing 3+ be enough to keep it all at a pace that he's comfortable at?
4. He's got a 3rd in a Coral Cup in his CV, indicating some class.

I'd have said 33 or higher would be pretty enticing to find out. But 25s SP could mean he's mid 30s/low-mid 40s on Betfair. That'll be interesting enough.

******

The one I don't want to win - but do confess to a small worry that he could go OK - is the Piper. I think he has a big race in him. But heavy ground at this distance will hopefully test the stamina far too much. Hoping for a back-of-midfield finish, then a big bang at either something over 3 on good, or maybe slightly less - for which there should be some tasty odds on offer.
Click to expand...
I think that 2 + a half handicap chase at the festival would suit Pied Piper ?
 

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