Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 28,146
The brother asked me about the race this evening. I replied:
I don’t want to back anything that doesn’t need to go up to get into the Grand National so I’m wary of anything with an OR of 141 or more (since the UK handicapper will add about 6lbs). The entries for Aintree aren’t out yet so we’re in the dark about what will be targeting this or a festival handicap or even one of the other Nationals, the Irish or the Scottish, maybe even the Whitbread. Conyers Hill looks a doubtful stayer so I’m letting him go. I also want the novices onside. The two first-season novices are both reserves so I’m waiting to see if either Mullins or Elliott takes something out to let them run and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Townend switched to Uncle Pat if Mullins did.
All that said, Mullins has won seven of the last 14 renewals, usually with his main rider in the saddle so Captain Cody is maybe not going to Aintree, especially if my long-held belief that Quai De Bourbon is their National horse for this year is right, and he’ll be the main bet.
Pied Piper is the one whose chase mark is significantly below his hurdles mark and therefore potentially thrown in. He could, in theory, afford to win this, take a hike in the ratings and still go to Aintree with every chance but the jockey booking is screaming ‘not today’.
I don’t want to back anything that doesn’t need to go up to get into the Grand National so I’m wary of anything with an OR of 141 or more (since the UK handicapper will add about 6lbs). The entries for Aintree aren’t out yet so we’re in the dark about what will be targeting this or a festival handicap or even one of the other Nationals, the Irish or the Scottish, maybe even the Whitbread. Conyers Hill looks a doubtful stayer so I’m letting him go. I also want the novices onside. The two first-season novices are both reserves so I’m waiting to see if either Mullins or Elliott takes something out to let them run and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Townend switched to Uncle Pat if Mullins did.
All that said, Mullins has won seven of the last 14 renewals, usually with his main rider in the saddle so Captain Cody is maybe not going to Aintree, especially if my long-held belief that Quai De Bourbon is their National horse for this year is right, and he’ll be the main bet.
Pied Piper is the one whose chase mark is significantly below his hurdles mark and therefore potentially thrown in. He could, in theory, afford to win this, take a hike in the ratings and still go to Aintree with every chance but the jockey booking is screaming ‘not today’.
. Quoted at 50s.
