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Todays Racing -----England--Ireland

2.05 Punchestown

Lay El Fabiolo @ 2.2

There’s absolutely no reason this horse should be so short. Hasn’t run since April so won’t be match fit and plenty of Willie Mullins horses have been desperately needing a run, particularly his non first string. Hasn’t won since almost two years ago, and has only completed on two of his last 6 starts. Hasn’t run over hurdles in public since 2022, and has never won over this distance. Ballyadam won this race last year and beat a race fit Saint Sam in doing so, and given he had a flat spin last month, he is a play at around 4/1 too. Spillanes Tower is another dodge pot who id be avoiding too. Can’t see anything else involved.

Lay El Fabiolo at 2.2
Back Ballyadam at 5.0
 
4.20 lady rainclound 33/1 e/w

3rd to AISLINGS OSCAR off level weight beaten 2L Aislings then won next three, Lady raincloud apprentice ridden last four times and Barry McHugh takes over tonight
 
Yes it looked like a broken neck - you only had to see how his legs went rigid. Really sad as I thought he was a nice horse - may not have beaten the winner but he would have picked up more races.
 
Poor taste from Ed Chamberlin after the race saying this is what’s great about NH. I know he was talking about Edwardstone but …
 
He's not a horseman compared to Luke and Alice who straight away knew what had happened. He's just a sports presenter.
 
I had a friend who was there today in an official capacity and he spoke to a couple of the valets who said the jockeys had come back in saying the ground was frozen in parts under the surface so yes it does sound like you are correct.

Not sure how many trainers/jockeys actually walked the course and unlike pointing I have no idea if there is a course inspector that goes out and does a final check ALL the way around with a going stick. You would hope so.
 
1425 Newcastle Kalo Athena

Horse got its first win last time out at Wetherby.
That was a Class 5, 0-100 Handicap over 3 miles on soft going. Its mark that day was 79 but today’s 10lb claimer was onboard so it ran off 69. It was a conditional jockey’s race, which may prove relevant later. The average OR of the race was 82.8.
Race conditions are virtually the same with a slight average OR rise to 86.5.
It has been put up 6lbs fort the win to 85 and as the claimer is the same as last time then the 6lb rise remains.
The win last time was achieved with first time cheekpieces and there is no guarantee they will have the same effect 2nd time around.
Trainer hasn’t sent that many here the last 5 years with a record of 2/14. Hurdles wise that becomes 1/11.
Jockey is the interesting factor for me and ultimately swings the lay.
Very limited record at the Course of 0/4 and 0 places.
The career record over Hurdles at all courses is 2/50.
Both wins came in conditional jockey’s handicaps and yet to win outside that arena.
The win on this one last time out was a surprise given the odds of 9/1.
It broke a losing run of 46 going back to August 2023.
Rise in the ratings, not 1st time cheekpieces and the Jockey stats make it opposable for me.
 
Hard work trying to find them recently and could only get 3 for today but i'll put one in here.

1340 Catterick Zero Tolerance


Career record of 0/14 and the Chases side is 0/7.
Started Chase career in April 2024 over 2 miles off a mark of 100. Attempted 2 Class 5 races at the end of that season.
The 2024/2025 season it was stepped up to a range of 2m 4f – 3 miles which saw its mark rise to 104, as it never finished out of the top 4. All efforts were in Class 4 races with the average OR’s ranging from 104.1 to a high of 112.8.
Started this season back at 2m off a mark of 103 and the average OR was 90.6 in a Class 5.
Steps back up to Class 4 today, over 2m 3f and retains a rating of 103. The average OR of today’s race is 104.2.
There’s no real change in today’s race from the previous ones that he hasn’t managed to win.
On face value there’s little to suggest it will reverse that trend.
Jockey at the course the last 5 years has a record of is very limited with a record of 0/3. He’s been around the Chase course once.
Recent 30 day form is 1/29 but he hasn’t been allocated the best of rides.
If we extend the recent form to 90 days it’s still only 2/66 and the rides are on horses that aren’t fancied to win.
Always a Reason looked to have more in the tank last time and will be more knowledgeable this time.
Ailt An Chorrain’s recent from doesn’t bode well, but it has dropped down the ratings a few pounds and Hughes is booked. Trainer/Jockey combo last 5 years with chasers is 5/18 so one to pay attention to.
Profile of the race looks to have 2 above the selection and it’s opposable for me.
 
Hard again today and only 3 so i'll offer one here.

1520 Lingfield Knights Templar

Basic points as to why I’m taking this one on.
A 3lb rise in the ratings from the win last time which takes it to its highest mark ever.
Both AW wins, record of 2/6, have come at Kempton and on the left handed AW tracks it hasn’t featured. Strange considering it has won on the turf left handed.
All turf/AW wins have been at Class 5 or 6 level and the record when higher than that is 0/4.
Sire hasn’t had many runners here the last 5 years but it’s 0/8 and 0 places. The wins have come mainly on the tapeta, 7/10, whilst the other 3 on the polytrack have all been at Kempton.
As an aside, the selection has had 7 runs over Hurdles and won once, which was in a Class 2 at..Kempton.
I don’t believe this is the Course for the Horse and the rise in Class and ratings should do for it today.
 

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