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The Official Constitution Hill Thread 2025/26

If he runs, you can bet your absolute bollocks on it and be relatively safe and get odds against as well.

For Nicky to even run him you can be sure fire he’s absolutely tanking the hurdles at home.

Sit 4 wide, pop them, and see you later up the hill.

I wouldn’t want to be Nico though, be the most scrutinised ride in history. Pulling away going to last, you’d be f$%^ing shitting yaself.
 
Its Mental to think that Even on Friday Morning, most people was saying to put CHill on the Champion Hurdle and the flat race was a farce, jump to the end of the week, and everyone is saying to put CHill on the flat.

Shows how quick opinions can change thanks for a 9.5 Length domination
 
I personally thought Constitution Hill should never race again after Punchestown last year. After the Fighting Fifth I thought he should never jump a hurdle again. I still think that and even if he runs ( and he will ) in the Champion Hurdle I will still stand by that opinion, even if he wins. They are rolling the dice with the entire sport imo. The upside of him winning is only for them. Whilst it would be nice for most racing fans to see him win a 2nd Champion hurdle as a horse with his undoubted talent probably deserved to win 3. I'd think for most racing fans it would make the most uncomfortable viewing, holding our breaths at every hurdle waiting for the inevitable and only feeling relief rather than joy if he got around safe and sound regardless of where he finished. Can you imagine the rest of Tuesday at Cheltenham if he fell, the atmosphere would be morbid.

I don't even like the fact that I'm saying this myself as for me I've never liked the way that if a top class race horse breaks down or is fatally injured every one gushes over them yet if a plater breaks down at Wolverhampton on a Monday no-one bats an eye. For me when it comes to welfare I dont care anymore for Constitution Hill than I care for the mistreated horses staked out in muddy fields on the Lost city, Tipton or any other council estate around the Midlands.

This isnt about welfare though it's about the media circus that Nicky Henderson has created. Now some may say this is the way forward for the sport and look at the positive effects. They had a bit of a bumper crowd at Southwell and its got people talking about racing. However, it doesn't sit well with me as it somehow wrangles with me in the same way as Jake Paul being a boxer does.
I love what racing used to be, I look at the National Hunt scene and can see its dying at a rapid rate of knots and that's never been more apparent than this season. For me I'd rather it die out than see it become something grotesque but I realise its changing and some will like it, it may extend racings survival for a while and of course I'm free not to be involved in what I dont like.

There are upsides to creating a media circus around a horse like Constitution Hill, things like you can get a race put on for him at your request with a lot higher prize money than what is warranted for such an event. But there are certainly downsides and one of those is the world is watching and in this modern world they are watching with bated breath too, not for the horses welfare just for you to fail, make a mistake and a chance to attack. If the horse heaven forbid was to be fatally injured at Cheltenham it may not be the final nail in the coffin for the sport but it won't be far off. It may not be the end of the circus though as I dare say Henderson would be selling T.V rights for the funeral and we may well get to see Elton sing candle in the wind one last time (camera pans to a teary eyed Henderson).

As for the flat campaign it's in someways preferable to ever seeing him jump a hurdle again but I kind of think what's the point. He's never going to be as good on the flat as he was over hurdles. Is racing on summer ground ideal for a 9yo NH horse ? He's been a great horse, he's done his bit and imo they are doing him an injustice by carrying on. Whatever they do I hope he just gets to retire in one piece.
 
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Danny said:
They are rolling the dice with the entire sport imo.
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Great post imo, Danny, and if there's one line that makes the starkest point it's this one.

It's no one's job here at Talking Horses to worry about racing's image (hence future) with the wider public.

That's the BHA's job yet, if Buckley and Henderson decide to send Constitution Hill back to Cheltenham, they are no offers to sit back and watch it happen.

Despite three falls in his last four hurdles races, the horse would still be odds on to jump round.

And, even if he fell, it's long odds-on it wouldn't be fatal.

But look at the stake - Jump Racing would be allowing connections to "bet the house" on a happy ending.

Never mind the antis, the average person in the street wouldn't be impressed by either connections or a sport that sends the winner of £900,000 back over hurdles, having fallen three times out of the last four attempts, and it then gets killed.

"But horses, even top-class horses, die all the time, it's up to the owner and trainer," says Mr or Ms Buried In Racing Bubble.

Ffs, get your head out of your arse, forget about Sprinter Sacre-esque romantic comeback stories and look the consequences of the ultimate downside in the face.

If you wanted to hasten the demise of UK Jump racing this would do the job faster than any fatality in a Grand National.

If I was Chairman or CEO of the BHA I'd intervene and privately (to save them embarrassment) tell connections the horse is on a life ban from UK Jump racing - if they want to risk killing him, it's not happening on my manor on my watch - and direct Weatherbys to reject any entry or declaration for the horse in a UK Jumps race.

But of course they won't - they'll do a Pontius Pilate and let nature run its course.
 
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There's nothing folk love more in this life, whether us people, or our horses, than a good old triumph over adversity.

The sport is rife with risk, as is life itself, so nothing new there.

Live in fear or live it large. Take your choice.

I thought he was regressing last season, but I have changed my mind since then. He's obviously still got loads of ability.

No one should blame Nicky if he runs him in the Champion Hurdle and he were to fall. Blame is a horrible thing where sport and injury are concerned.

If you want a cast iron guarantee a horse won't fall, then yes, just don't run them.
 
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Danny said:
I personally thought Constitution Hill should never race again after Punchestown last year. After the Fighting Fifth I thought he should never jump a hurdle again. I still think that and even if he runs ( and he will ) in the Champion Hurdle I will still stand by that opinion, even if he wins. They are rolling the dice with the entire sport imo. The upside of him winning is only for them. Whilst it would be nice for most racing fans to see him win a 2nd Champion hurdle as a horse with his undoubted talent probably deserved to win 3. I'd think for most racing fans it would make the most uncomfortable viewing, holding our breaths at every hurdle waiting for the inevitable and only feeling relief rather than joy if he got around safe and sound regardless of where he finished. Can you imagine the rest of Tuesday at Cheltenham if he fell, the atmosphere would be morbid.

I don't even like the fact that I'm saying this myself as for me I've never liked the way that if a top class race horse breaks down or is fatally injured every one gushes over them yet if a plater breaks down at Wolverhampton on a Monday no-one bats an eye. For me when it comes to welfare I dont care anymore for Constitution Hill than I care for the mistreated horses staked out in muddy fields on the Lost city, Tipton or any other council estate around the Midlands.

This isnt about welfare though it's about the media circus that Nicky Henderson has created. Now some may say this is the way forward for the sport and look at the positive effects. They had a bit of a bumper crowd at Southwell and its got people talking about racing. However, it doesn't sit well with me as it somehow wrangles with me in the same way as Jake Paul being a boxer does.
I love what racing used to be, I look at the National Hunt scene and can see its dying at a rapid rate of knots and that's never been more apparent than this season. For me I'd rather it die out than see it become something grotesque but I realise its changing and some will like it, it may extend racings survival for a while and of course I'm free not to be involved in what I dont like.

There are upsides to creating a media circus around a horse like Constitution Hill, things like you can get a race put on for him at your request with a lot higher prize money than what is warranted for such an event. But there are certainly downsides and one of those is the world is watching and in this modern world they are watching with bated breath too, not for the horses welfare just for you to fail, make a mistake and a chance to attack. If the horse heaven forbid was to be fatally injured at Cheltenham it may not be the final nail in the coffin for the sport but it won't be far off. It may not be the end of the circus though as I dare say Henderson would be selling T.V rights for the funeral and we may well get to see Elton sing candle in the wind one last time (camera pans to a teary eyed Henderson).

As for the flat campaign it's in someways preferable to ever seeing him jump a hurdle again but I kind of think what's the point. He's never going to be as good on the flat as he was over hurdles. Is racing on summer ground ideal for a 9yo NH horse ? He's been a great horse, he's done his bit and imo they are doing him an injustice by carrying on. Whatever they do I hope he just gets to retire in one piece.
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A great post Danny
 
So according to Michael Buckley

Next Races:

Hurdles
G1 Unibet Champion Hurdle (2m 0.5f)

Flat
Ebor Handicap (1m 5f), Foundation Stakes (L) at Goodwood (1m ~2f) (Michael said about a Race in Goodwood around Late August/Early September, Foundation Stakes fits that criteria) or G1 Irish St Leger (1m 6f)

to lead into the G1 Melbourne Cup (~2m) in Australia, But Id have the G1 Breeders Cup Turf in Keeneland on the backburner with how temperamental the Medical Staff is.
 
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I have seen many outstanding horses overs the years, but only two whose superiority was so great that they stand alone under the truly exceptional banner. Frankel on the flat and Constitution Hill over hurdles…………and then he fell.

The last time he fell it wasn’t so much the falling, plenty do that, but the manner of it where he just seemed to throw himself at the hurdle - that’s “at” it, rather than over it. I thought that was him finished because it didn’t look like a casual error, more a brain fart.

Since then he’s had probably the most intensive schooling ever given to a horse, latterly under Yogi Breisner, so he should be good to go technically and in his confidence. Certainly, as Southwell showed, he’s still got it in his legs (dunno why anyone should ever have doubted that).

He is an extremely popular horse, but are you going to ban every popular horse from running if they have fallen? Put him on the flat, then. At 9 years old, that’ll be short lived, won’t it? What a dilemma.

For my money he has been Champion Hurdler and should be given the chance to regain his crown and I’m glad that seems to be the plan.
 
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WandererSkyLight said:
So according to Michael Buckley

Next Races:

Hurdles
G1 Unibet Champion Hurdle (2m 0.5f)

Flat
Ebor Handicap (1m 5f), Foundation Stakes (L) at Goodwood (1m ~2f) (Michael said about a Race in Goodwood around Late August/Early September, Foundation Stakes fits that criteria) or G1 Irish St Leger (1m 6f)

to lead into the G1 Melbourne Cup (~2m) in Australia, But Id have the G1 Breeders Cup Turf in Keeneland on the backburner with how temperamental the Medical Staff is.
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Yeah there is no chance Con Hill would pass the vet for the Melbourne Cup
 
Am I correct is saying that the fall rate for a horss over hurdles in the UK is under 2% per runner? In my head the probability of Constitution Hill falling is around 6%. It's a bigger number than it should be but nowhere near as high as people are suggesting.
 
Slim said:
Am I correct is saying that the fall rate for a horss over hurdles in the UK is under 2% per runner? In my head the probability of Constitution Hill falling is around 6%. It's a bigger number than it should be but nowhere near as high as people are suggesting.
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I'd been waiting for you to price it up - you seldom disappoint.

Bit morbid, but I wonder what the odds of a fatal fall would be?

That's the real danger to UK's Jump Racing's wider public image here and the odds at which they'd be "having the lot on" in terms of the game's reputation among an increasingly-hostile UK public.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I'd been waiting for you to price it up - you seldom disappoint.

Bit morbid, but I wonder what the odds of a fatal fall would be?

That's the real danger to UK's Jump Racing's wider public image here and the odds at which they'd be "having the lot on" in terms of the game's reputation among an increasingly-hostile UK public.
Click to expand...

It’s surely less than 0.25%. The point here is that it’s far less likely than assumed. That said, I completely get why people don’t want a horse this good to end up on the deck again..
 
So, 1.0025, a one in 400 chance or less.

I still don't like those odds in terms of what I suspect the fall-out from it would be.

These are the sort of things the BHA should be talking about IMO.
 
Ian_Davies said:
So, 1.0025, a one in 400 chance or less.

I still don't like those odds in terms of what I suspect the fall-out from it would be.

These are the sort of things the BHA should be talking about IMO.
Click to expand...

Well, I’ve plucked that figure out of the air, but I’m sure if you crunched the data from the Cheltenham Festival, it’s unlikely that more than 1 in 400 runners over hurdles have fatal falls.
 
Slim said:
Well, I’ve plucked that figure out of the air
Click to expand...
At least you've had a crack at pricing it up, which is effectively doing a risk assessment, which is probably more than anyone at the BHA has done.

The chances of a fatal fall (and, in this instance, the fallout that might accompany it) are undoubtedly tiny, but tiny isn't zero, as we know.
 
Connie's had three hurdle falls in his last four hurdle races, he has been lucky to get up unscathed though I believe he did have bruising on foreleg last time

VF x
 

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