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The Official Constitution Hill Thread 2025/26

jinnyj said:
I know Hendo has been schooling and schooling him and the jumps guru Yogi Breisner has been concentrating on both teaching the horse and the jockey. And he will have been doing all sorts of different exercises to teach balance and concentration. I took a pointer we once had that used to literally walk through a fence each race off to a showjumping friend and we did loads of pole work including placing a pole the other side of the jump so he had to expect to see that in place and hop over it too so it effectively concentrated his mind. Worked really well too.

But I still don't want to see them take the risk. I don't think they lose anything by saying, "Well we've tried everything we can but there is still something that bothers us and for that we are not prepared to take that risk. We potentially have a horse that could still enjoy his twilight years solely on the Flat and as he owes us nothing, then we think we should do the responsible thing for the horse and for racing in general."
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All I read was JinnyJ doing pole work.
 
It doesn't matter what they do at home - as Nicky well knows. Gallops and schooling grounds are not racecourses. They'll be no Yogi upsides at each hurdle telling Nico what to do. Could be plenty Boo Boos, though.

The BHA, snivelling in the background, hoping no one notices that they are the ones who should have stopped this weeks ago.
 
Danny said:
I didnt say they did. What i said is a horse any horse is more likely to fall when under pressure that doesn't mean they dont fall when they are not.

Go lay your 15/1 about him falling on course and you won't be able to afford a bin afterwards.
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From an ethical point of view, you simply couldn’t price that up. Whether that’s right or wrong is a question for another day. That said, I’m trying to put a probability on it based on data, not on how punters would bet in the market. You can be perfectly correct in what you’re saying here about the 15/1, but also miles away from the true probability.
 
'd like to know if those on the forum who really understand the beasts we bet on can answer this. Is there any way to train Constitution Hill out of launching himself at hurdles too early? Can a jockey make his mind up for him. On optics, I've always felt Nico was a passenger and got no say in when he took off. Now, he could have a good day and get away with it but if he doesn't than my 6% is as ridiculous as Danny implies and he's more of a 20% chance to fall. This is a technical thing though and outside any knowledge I have.
 
Don't know if Nico is the problem with CH. Look at the Punchestown race when James Bowen rode him, his jumping was awful from the start and he toiled round to finish 5th. The horse doesnt seem to listen to the jockey when he comes to a hurdle and maybe the slickness he had in his first few seasons has now become a disregard for the hurdles?
 
Yes there are plenty of ways you can change the way a horse jumps. By doing grid and pole work will all help and Yogi will be getting Nico to change his technique as well.

A jockey can of course ask a horse up to take off - that's standard but you tend not to really do that racing. It's something that other equestrian sports would do as normal and when I first worked in racing in my 20s, I used to school the Flat horses over hurdles as I was one of the only members of staff who actually knew how to jump. My biggest highlight was schooling 3yos over hurdles up on the Links schooling grounds in Newmarket with Richard Dunwoody. That was a huge treat - the two of us upsides, hurtling into a row of hurdles at god knows what speed, with him saying to me, "just leave it to them, they have to learn - no asking them to jump!" And that was completely alien to me at the time (I'm thinking back to Pony Club days when we all said "hup" to our ponies! ). His theory though was that it should be as little interference as possible.

I often watch jockeys and you can see they move their hands or shift their weight and the horse reacts - sometimes it can be distracting to the horse. All jockeys should be able to "see a stride" and work out how many strides to take off. But certainly some jockeys do "ask" their horses to jump. I guess it depends what theory you adhere to.
 
Slim said:
'd like to know if those on the forum who really understand the beasts we bet on can answer this. Is there any way to train Constitution Hill out of launching himself at hurdles too early? Can a jockey make his mind up for him. On optics, I've always felt Nico was a passenger and got no say in when he took off. Now, he could have a good day and get away with it but if he doesn't than my 6% is as ridiculous as Danny implies and he's more of a 20% chance to fall. This is a technical thing though and outside any knowledge I have.
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Really interesting debate here and one the BHA should be having internally.

Fair play here to Slim, IMO, I effectively asked him to price it up, both falling and death (distasteful though that is, it's what risk assessment is often used for) and he's described scenarios where it could be anything from 16/1 to 4/1 and death maybe 400/1.

I'm unsure myself - how many obstacles has the horse successfully negotiated in his career relative to the three falls?

What are the more recent numbers since, say, 1 January 2025?

How relevant is any of that in light of new schooling methods being deployed?

What are the numbers for all the hurdlers currently in training?

What is the mortality rate for fallers in hurdles races all the hurdlers currently in training?

The BHA should know and the RP should be data mining this sort of thing, but they remind me of the movie "Dumb And Dumber" so don't bank on either ever getting to the nitty gritty fast, or at all.

One thing is certain: "How would WE let it happen?" will be the headline if the worst happens and the grim aftertiming naval contemplation begins.

If so, less of the "we" - many of us didn't want racing to take even a 400/1 risk by allowing this in such a heightened and arguably unique set of circumstances. #notinmyname
 
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Ian_Davies said:
Really interesting debate here and one the BHA should be having internally.

Fair play here to Slim, IMO, I effectively asked him to price it up, both falling and death (distasteful though that is, it's what risk assessment is often used for) and he's described scenarios where it could be anything from 16/1 to 4/1 and death maybe 400/1.

I'm unsure myself - how many obstacles has the horse successfully negotiated in his career relative to the three falls?

What are the more recent numbers since, say, 1 January 2025?

How relevant is any of that in light of new schooling methods being deployed?

What are the numbers for all the hurdlers currently in training?

What is the mortality rate for fallers in hurdles races all the hurdlers currently in training?

The BHA should know and the RP should be data mining this sort of thing, but they remind me of the movie "Dumb And Dumber" so don't bank on either ever getting to the nitty gritty fast, or at all.

One thing is certain: "How would WE let it happen?" will be the headline if the worst happens and the grim aftertiming naval contemplation begins.

If so, less of the "we" - many of us didn't want racing to take even a 400/1 risk by allowing this in such a heightened and arguably unique set of circumstances. #notinmyname
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Thinking this through, I’m more inclined to move towards Danny’s opinion. His falls were never under pressure. Even in a race he won, he launched at a hurdle. If you do that, you’re so much more likely to fall. If someone smarter than me tells me that Nico will make his mind up for him, then 6% is right. If he can’t, then yes, the chances of him falling are at an unacceptable level for the profile of the race.

I’m not even mentioning here that I don’t really agree that the level of attention is that high. I don’t think, for example, that it’s any higher than Rachael Blackmore riding a Gold Cup favourite or Katie Walsh riding a Grand National favourite. The point is a technical one: when a horse becomes bold at his hurdles and launches, can it be schooled out of them?
 
Slim said:
I’m not even mentioning here that I don’t really agree that the level of attention is that high.
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You could be right but, if the 400/1 shot no one wants to see materialises, my gut feeling is there will be a lot wider mainstream media scrutiny of this.

Racing claims to love its horses and treat them well, yet high profile winner of £900,000 who owes his owner (very wealthy btw) nothing is risked despite the warning signs of three falls in its last four jumps races with a fatal outcome - that's a "story."

Wider public opinion about racing in the UK has never been more divided - and I don't just mean the animal rights fanatics - adverse public opinion can lead to legislation and nothing good of it would come for UK Jump racing.

It would be even more catastrophic publicity than multiple horses being killed in a Grand National.

I don't see any evidence of racing's rulers, the BHA, thinking any of it is to with them despite the fact they are the custodians of British racing's public image.
 
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Ian_Davies said:
You could be right but, if the 400/1 shot no one wants to see materialises, my gut feeling is there will be a lot more wider attention brought to this.

Racing claims to love its horses and treat them well, yet high profile winner of £900,000 who owes his owner (very wealthy) btw is risked despite the warning signs of three falls in its last four jumps races with a fatal outcome - that's a "story."

Wider public opinion about racing in the UK has never been more divided - and I don't just mean the animal rights fanatics - adverse public opinion can lead to legislation and nothing good of it would come for UK Jump racing.

It would be even more catastrophic publicity than multiple horses being killed in a Grand National.

I don't see any evidence of racing's rulers, the BHA, thinking any of it is to with them despite the fact they are the custodians of British racing's public image.
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I accept all that. The question remains, can the horse jump or not?
 
notsodancingbrave said:
Don't know if Nico is the problem with CH. Look at the Punchestown race when James Bowen rode him, his jumping was awful from the start and he toiled round to finish 5th. The horse doesnt seem to listen to the jockey when he comes to a hurdle and maybe the slickness he had in his first few seasons has now become a disregard for the hurdles?
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I think this is true.
 
Something has gone wrong somewhere, he was said to have schooled brilliantly before the fighting fifth and then fell. So unless they can at least identify what the problem has been what can possibly be different ?

Keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result is what ?

Either way what ever gets discussed I think they will run him, Nico will ride and then we just have to hope for the good of the sport they get away with it and he comes back in one piece.
 
Danny said:
Something has gone wrong somewhere, he was said to have schooled brilliantly before the fighting fifth and then fell. So unless they can at least identify what the problem has been what can possibly be different ?

Keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result is what ?

Either way what ever gets discussed I think they will run him, Nico will ride and then we just have to hope for the good of the sport they get away with it and he comes back in one piece.
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I think they are implying he can get away with it once. That’s why I said to you, what price is he to jump ten hurdles? He could still be a liability and get away with it, and I think that’s the card they’re going to play.
 
I said to someone in the week before the run at Southwell that's what the run on the all weather was all about. How to put him spot on for the Champion without having to "risk him twice".
 
Danny said:
Dangerous game to play. Like I said rolling the dice on the entire sport.
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I don’t think it is, because in my opinion jump racing is gone anyway. I think racing is actually creating the hysteria itself, but shouldn’t we reflect that it’s a good thing? That racing is worried this horse might be a liability?

Analogies are always a bad idea, but with hindsight neither Gloria Victus nor Beef Or Salmon should have run in a Gold Cup. Others will point to the novice that won the race in the meantime.

My point is this: it’s a good thing that racing recognises the jeopardy in these situations, but it’s not good that racing is the only outlet is roaring and shouting about it. You either think Nicky Henderson cares, or you don’t.
 

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