1000 Guineas Thread

G

Guest_

At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
14,178
Location
Ireland
Before the trials start how do we view this race at this stage?

Plenty of money about in recent days for Kitty Matcham, Psalm and in particular today Muthabara. Muthabara is now challenging for favouritism off both Listen and Spacious.

I think Listen is opposable, good and solid but something does not convince me about her and the vibes do not appear to be that positive. Would not surprise me to see Kitty Matcham or Psalm turn out to be the greater threat from Ballydoyle for the first fillies Classic.

Lush Lashes looks more an Oaks filly and it hard to fancy off the back of her run where Savethisdanceforme showed up well first time out. Spacious has been well touted but for me she will need to improve alot on her 2 year old runs.

Laureldean Gale looked a superstar on her first two outings and if you can forgive her last run then her run behind Proviso looks very good.

A really interesting filly is Chinese White. Bred to need further and I don't know for sure if she is being aimed at this but the manner in which she slammed Kitty Matcham on her sole start was most impressive. Certainly a filly to watch out for this season.

The main players...

Kitty Matcham

Listen

Saoire Abu

Natagora

Sense Of Joy

Nahoodh

Psalm and Kitty Matcham
 
I've backed Kitty Matcham e/w for both the 1000 and the Oaks although I'd be a little concerned about her stamina for the latter. To be honest I haven't really seen too much of some of the other contenders but I hope KM puts up a good show - the dam was pretty good and it's obviously quite a strong pedigree on the dams side. She seemed to be improving towards the back end of last season following a slow start.
 
Last year`s group of 2yo fillies was a good one, well above average. Which leads me to believe that one of Listen, Natagora or Nahoodh will take the race in the unfortunate absence of Zarkova and Proviso.

I`m surprised at how weak Listen seems to be in the market, but equally i`m baffled about the odds for Muthabara and Spacious - fillies who need to find a lot of improvement to take a hand. But then again the bookies have a history of being clueless in pricing up this race - like lemmings they all had Sander Camillo as favourite this time last year.

I backed Natagora not long after her Cheveley Park victory. The distaff half of her pedigree suggests she should stay. I covered on Listen last month.
 
I favour Natagora too though I haven't had a bet yet - I'd got Proviso at long odds from things I was told first time she ran, but that's down the pan now :( I will get on for the French Guineas though

Natagora looked very impressive at Newmarket
 
The most interesting question for me is "will Natagora stay a mile?".

She didn't appear to be stopping at the end of the Cheveley Park and, looking through her pedigree, it's hard to find a horse who definitely didn't stay a mile. You'd think she was certain to get it, maybe a furlong or two more.

But her sire Divine Light, although getting a mile well enough, seemed to show his very best form at 6f, and this may prove to be the main determining factor, particularly as she shows so much early speed.

I'd bet against her on a stamina basis, but then I thought the same thing about Attraction!
 
O'Brien looks to have far more strength in depth with fillies than he's had in recent seasons and I can see him carrying plenty before him this year. All of Listen, Kitty Matcham, Psalm and Savethisdanceforme look creditable classic candidates at this stage.
 
Natagora for me, I'm on at 33s after she posted some phenomenal times in France in her first few runs.
 
It's difficult to get away from Natagora. Which ever way I look at it, I seem to keep coming back to her. It was pretty clear early doors that there was something in France that appeared to be streets ahead of what we had this side of the Channel. The Chevelley Park came round and she duly proved it. 19th of June was the first time she got mentioned on here when she was available at a 3 figure price, though I confess to believing Pascal Bary when he said she wouldn't run and so reasoned I was just chucking money away :angy:

I don't know whether it's me, but I think the stamina element of the Rowley Mile is often over-stated. I'd be more concerned about the draw than the trip. The final furlong might be uphill but the previous 7 aren't and they're pretty gentle, (if anything, slightly downhill). I think the rising ground can unbalance a horse when they meet it at speed, but she's coped with it once. The standard times for the Rowley Mile are quicker than most other straight miles. It isn't the most punishing by a long way (although you'd have to recognise that it's rarely beaten which indicates it might be wrong) and the quality of horses running at Newmarket will impact on the standard too.
 
Originally posted by Venusian@Apr 6 2008, 10:06 AM
The most interesting question for me is "will Natagora stay a mile?".
Click to expand...
From the RP race report on the Cheveley Park:

<< It remains to be seen what long-term significance this latest renewal has, but NATAGORA and Fleeting Spirit, two of the proven Group winners, both impressed in coming well clear.
Natagora was the first French-trained winner since Pas De Reponse in 1996, and she came here with strong claims, because only the colt Myboycharlie had prevented her winning for a fifth successive time in the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville last time. In front from the start, but racing nicely within herself, she quickened a couple of lengths clear over a furlong out , and while Fleeting Spirit emerged from the pack to give chase, she was always holding on and looked to have just a little in hand. Pascal Bary reckons the winner, whose dam won at 1m2f, should get 1m, despite her obvious speed... We can't be certain she will stay, however, and her jockey reportedly has doubts. >>

The writer also remarks that Russian Rythm was 2nd in the race
What strikes me too is that Natagora though rangy was a fairly big filly and could strengthen up for this longer test.

Looking again at Sense Of Joy's win at Goodwood [thanks for the links Chris] it's striking what a big scopey filly she was even then, and she should make a fine 3yr old. I doubt the slow early pace in that race played to her strengths either - I had a feeling she could have won better even off a decent pace. Opinions?
 
I liked the look of Sense of Joy's Goodwood performance at the time in a slowly run race and in time she will probably need further but she'll do for me at the moment.
 
Originally posted by Warbler@Apr 6 2008, 03:37 PM
It was pretty clear early doors that there was something in France that appeared to be streets ahead of what we had this side of the Channel. The Chevelley Park came round and she duly proved it.
Click to expand...
No, she proved that she was a neck better than Fleeting Spirit.
 
She could only beat what we put up against her.

If there were better fillies around, why did their trainers not run them?
 
Originally posted by Venusian@Apr 6 2008, 08:41 PM
She could only beat what we put up against her.

If there were better fillies around, why did their trainers not run them?
Click to expand...
My point is that she wasn't "streets ahead" of Fleeting Spirit.

Natagora has the best 5f and 6f form, there's no doubt, but even if she stays a mile her form as it stands doesn't make her any sort of good thing for the Guineas. There are plenty of talented fillies up against her who weren't being campaigned over sprint trips last Autumn and who therefore wouldn't have taken her on in the Cheveley Park.

I'm not knocking Natagora, just the "if she stays, she wins" viewpoint.
 
She might have beaten Fleeting Spirit by a neck over a sprint distance, but then so did Kingsgate Native at Goodwood. The latter would of course go on to win the all age Gp1 Nunthorpe and finish 2nd in the all age Gp1 Abbaye. In the context of an aspiring miler taking on Fleeting Spirit over a sprint trip I'd be more inclined to draw encouragement from this? Her ability to get a mile remains to be proven, but her trainer sounds confident (she must have shown him something?) and the breeding from her dams side suggests she should too. She was meeting Fleeting Spirit on what I suspect will turn out to have been Fleeting Spirits terms. The proximity of Festoso and Missit give the form a solid look, but I'd accept that you can unpick form lines in 2yo's all day to find something that puts your selection ahead of something else.

Her raw speed was very impressive last season, and is backed up with figures as well as the line to Kingsgate Native through Fleeting Spirit. She ought to go into the race as the fastest, and currently holds three seperate TS's comfortably within the range achieved by all recent winners of the 1K. It's not so much the single biggest figure that's important here, but rather the consistant spread she achieved Using TS rather than my own figures, she's also got a few wins in decent company off a slow pace, which indicates she has a burst of acceleration as well as a cruising speed. If she's going to be able to extend this to a mile as she develops, then she goes there with every chance.

The Bousacc looks the strongest form on display, but few look like representing it at Newmarket. I actually expect Cape Amber to come in for some support shortly, as Tom Segal has pretty well signaled his intention to tip her. At the moment the market seems to be sensing a weakening favourite and a series of minor plunges are developing elsewhere. Spacious I believe was the subject of one 'significant' bet and this was responsible for driving her price down, as few followed in after Coral (I think it was, were obliged to clip her). Fanshawe seemed non plused by it when asked, and basically said the horse was fine and had done everything they wanted/ hoped, but nothing more than that. Mutabara is the latest to come in for support of course.

It seems to me that there's a little bit of bandwagoning going on, and I've got no real reason to believe that Natagora won't be far short of 6/1 on the day as her turn to be supported looks likely to come as value gets snaffled elsewhere. I seem to think she's probably been the subject of steady support (about 12's into 9's or 8's) rather than anything that's halved her price in recent weeks though.
 
Fleeting Spirit is not being trained for the Guineas so that tells you they don't think she will stay.

Nahoodh done a very good piece of work on Friday morning and will head to Newbury a week on Saturday. She has impressed at home.

Nijoom Dubai has gone okay but is a clear 2nd string.

Spacious left Cesare and Zidane standing on Saturday morning, whilst Cape Amber had a swinging canter alongsides an unraced 4yo gelding called Deep River Bay, there will be no prep run for her.

Visit hasn't been working well for Stoute.
 
I think Laureldean Gale is interesting for this race. She had top form to her name at 2 - her half length defeat against Proviso, yet is 20/1 because she underperformed in the Boussac. Not sure if anything came to light for her poor performance, apart from her getting warm beforehand, but forgive her that and she has better credentials than many of those ahead of her in the betting.
 
The Bousacc was also the fastest race of the year, which is why I'm inclined to think she could well have been taken off her feet and beaten on merit in truly run race at a pace that she might very well encounter again at Newmarket. She left the distinct impression on me that she was regressing (not unlike Rio De Le Plater) and regressive sorts are one area you really wouldn't expect to source the winner from. I seem to recall that someone might have won it off the back of a very lowly performance? although I also think the horse in question (name escapes me) won a trial race as a 3yo? Siding with somethign whose been so comprehensively beaten though can't be a percentage call.

I'd be more inclined to side with Savethisdanceforme if I were looking for something to represent the Bousacc form, as she went on to beat Maryellens Spirit NTO in a listed race by 9L's off a true pace. Prior to that Maryellens Spirit had just touched off Curtain Call, off a modest pace, so that gave her a good, and favourable line with the top colts. I wasn't too upset to see her beaten on debut as most of AOB's have needed their first run in recent years, and Murtagh had decided to handicap her an additional 2Ibs himself. A S/R of 2 from 7 isn't exactly screaming 'classic winner' at me though, and it's not really a race that Ballydoyle have ripped up trees in historically either. Only won it once?

Chris -

How far forward would Spacious be in relation to Ceasre and Zidane?. If the former is supposidly favourite for the Lockinge, then clearly a 3yo filly shouldn't really be able to beat it. I'd have thought it points to the filly either being exceptional, or Ceasre being given an easier time of things and being a few weeks behind her?
 
Perhaps they don't want to compromise her preparation for the Oaks?
It's been a cold spring and some fillies' coats aren't through yet - pointless pushing them
Esp if you have a bigger prize in view which you've a very good chance of winning, maybe?
Well I hope that's right as I've had a nibble for the Oaks!

As in the case of Listen, I think we are going to see a few fillies not coming to hand quickly this year, in spite of the warm spell in early March
 
Back
Top