2016 Ayr Gold Cup

As I've said elsewhere, Magnus Maximus looks a straightforward selection to me. He was rated 101 after beating Toofi and Naadirr in a valuable sales race at three for Hannon, gradually lost his way after that but has come back to form with a vengeance in recent weeks and is on a real upward curve at present. He carries an 8lb penalty on Saturday for winning two races since the weights came out but he actually runs off just 101 which is the same mark off which he readily accounted for a decent 18-strong field at Ascot on September 3, making all. He's now officially rated 106, so he's 5lbs "well-in" at Ayr.

14/1 still available and I think he could be single figures by Saturday.

Growl is the obvious danger.
 
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Can very much see the case for Maximus Magnus from a handicapping point of view, and the yard couldn't be in better form. My concern with regards to him is whether he'll be able to make all in a race as competitive as this, or whether he ends up getting taken on by one of the other pace forcers likely to run, and they could end up cutting each others throats.

The one that catches my eye is Johnny Barnes. He wouldn't be one for the stats boys, having his first run at the trip and John Gosden hasn't had a runner in the race at least 15 years, but I think a well-run 6f could be the making of him. He has often taken a strong hold in smaller fields over further, but he looked to have the speed for this sort of test when travelling better than most behind Home of The Brave at Leicester first time out this year. He's bred to be a sprinter, and while I can't point to a run that suggests he's well handicapped, he's one of very few in here that look open to improvement under the conditions. The fact Havlin is booked suggests he'll run, but have had only half stake on until the final field is known. 25/1 and bigger certainly interests me.
 
Bound to be a strong pace with the number of front runners among the market leaders, and the ground will also ensure the winner needs to stay at least a stiff 6.
Hillbilly Boy stays 7f well, loves soft ground and though he's made all to win his last 3 (at Chester, which clearly favours that kind of ride) he's also shown he can win by laying up wih the pace.
Looks a certain runner, and the general 25's appears more than fair.
 
davidjohnson said:
Can very much see the case for Maximus Magnus from a handicapping point of view, and the yard couldn't be in better form. My concern with regards to him is whether he'll be able to make all in a race as competitive as this, or whether he ends up getting taken on by one of the other pace forcers likely to run, and they could end up cutting each others throats.
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I'm reasonably optimistic. It's not as if he's been beating up small fields recently: 18 runners at Ascot, 12 at Chelmsford and, prior to that, he'd led a field of 16 a merry dance over 7f at Goodwood, just reeled in close home. Harley clearly gets on well with him and is one of the better jockeys around, for me.

A stall near either rail would assist, no doubt, and the weather forecast is a concern.
 
gus said:
As I've said elsewhere, Magnus Maximus looks a straightforward selection to me. He was rated 101 after beating Toofi and Naadirr in a valuable sales race at three for Hannon, gradually lost his way after that but has come back to form with a vengeance in recent weeks and is on a real upward curve at present. He carries an 8lb penalty on Saturday for winning two races since the weights came out but he actually runs off just 101 which is the same mark off which he readily accounted for a decent 18-strong field at Ascot on September 3, making all. He's now officially rated 106, so he's 5lbs "well-in" at Ayr.
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Magnus Maximus is a definite bet (took 14/1 this morning). I haven't done all my figures yet but he is rated better than the average winner of the race without taking into account whatever further improvement there is in him. Obviously it doesn't mean he will win but he should probably be a single-figure price and, for my money, has a better chance than Growl.
 
Sir Robert Cheval was third to Magnus Maximus last time and has a decent pull at the weights, 6 pound it is.
He's won over 8F, but has been solely campaigned over 6F this year, placing three times. A bit of cut in the ground might help his cause and take some sting out of a few opponents. See if that materialises. 33/1 in a place. Might be worth a saver.
 
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Marble said:
Sir Robert Cheval was third to Magnus Maximus last time and has a decent pull at the weights, 6 pound it is.
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Not according to the final decs, Marble. This was an early closer so MM's penalties only take him up to the mark off which he was a comfortable winner last time. They meet on exactly the same terms bar the fact that SRC had a 3lbs claimer that day and doesn't here so you could argue that he is 3lbs worse off with MM.
 
Hmm. I worked it out like this.

MM carries 9:1 plus an extra 8 pounds meaning he carries 9:9...
If he carries 9:9, he carries 11 pound more than SRC who carries 8:12, which is 5 pound more than what he gave to SRC last time, because he gave SRC 6 pound at Ascot, not including claimers.

I've probably got it all wrong!
 
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You're right... you've got it all wrong :)

His 8lbs penalty takes him up to 9-1 (OR101) because he was on 93 when the weights came out.
 
Ballymore Castle is well in on his rating as a 2yo and while he hasn't been in form since, he ran a close 2nd last time out is declared for the Bronze cup today and the 7f handicap tomorrow.
 
The only race run over the straight course yesterday saw 3 of the first 4 home drawn 1,2 & 3 of 21 runners (the other was berthed in 7).

The first two were at the bottom of the weights so in this traditionally tricky race I'm going to keep it simple by siding with a lightly weighted horse, drawn low with proven form on soft ground. The current going stick seems to confirm the preference for a low draw.

Unfortunately the only one that really ticks all those boxes is the favourite Growl.

so I'll be hoping for a bookmaker offer or two in the morning pushing him out slightly from the best priced 6/1 he is right now. The fact that the trainer's saddled the winner of this twice in the last ten years is clearly no bad thing and Nameitwhatyoulike should provide the pace on his side of the track. The good 5lb claimer on the latter brings him into the weight equation but he's twice run deplorably here in the Silver cup and is higher in the weights now so is easily passed over.

Of those higher in the weights I like Brando and he would have been my original selection had the ground been riding a bit quicker.

Jack Dexter has to come into the equation with the ground to suit and the fact he's previously been lugging top weight in this and is now towards the bottom of the weights, plus he too would appear to have a decent draw.

1. Growl, 2. Jack Dexter, 3. Brando
 
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Giant Spark stands out like a sore thumb in the Bronze cup today for similar reasons and while again well found in the market I can't let him go unbacked with so many things in his favour.

Conversely there are a few that would appear suited to conditions in the Silver cup so that'll take further analysis.
 
Lol - I keep hearing it on the podcasts and it must have stuck.

A cliched way of saying "has an obvious chance and is short enough as a result." I guess ��
 
wilsonl said:
The only race run over the straight course yesterday saw 3 of the first 4 home drawn 1,2 & 3 of 21 runners (the other was berthed in 7).
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With 7 of the last 9 home drawn 10 or higher off what looked a fairly even early pace - not looking promising for Hillbilly Boy (24) and I may have to row in with Growl.
Backed Giant Spark last night too, so hope you're on the ball with both, Lee.
 
wilsonl said:
The first two were at the bottom of the weights so in this traditionally tricky race I'm going to keep it simple by siding with a lightly weighted horse
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I fancy this might the case, or even more so the case, in the Silver Cup, Lee. The bottom weights look a lot more appealing than the top. Shipyard from Appleby stable is at the bottom and wears first time headgear, as does Flying Pursuit from Easterby's yard. They're both interesting. My conkers will probably go on the younger 3 year old animal, Flying Pursuit. If I'm right about the bottom weights having an edge then I am quietly confident. Thus the Silver Cup looks more decipherable than the Gold to me.
 
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Colin Phillips said:
Not having a go at you, wilsonl - I have heard it many times on the racing coverage, but was does "well found in the market" supposed to mean?
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Or you could put it the Slim Chance way " the smart lads have smashed this while you ***** were still in bed " :lol:
 
The age stats from the last 10 years suggest older horse will struggle..they not only have no wins ...which on its own isn't that relevant when you consider the number of runners each year ....its the placings that also suggest its hard for horses older than 6 to even place

3yo: Wins = 1/22....Placed = 23%
4yo: Wins = 3/73....Placed = 15%
5yo: Wins = 3/77....Placed = 18%
6yo: Wins = 3/42....Placed = 17%

7yo: Wins = 0/24....Placed = 4%
8yo+:Wins = 0/22...Placed = 9%
 
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Marble said:
I fancy this might the case, or even more so the case, in the Silver Cup, Lee. The bottom weights look a lot more appealing than the top. Shipyard from Appleby stable is at the bottom and wears first time headgear, as does Flying Pursuit from Easterby's yard. They're both interesting. My conkers will probably go on the younger 3 year old animal, Flying Pursuit. If I'm right about the bottom weights having an edge then I am quietly confident. Thus the Silver Cup looks more decipherable than the Gold to me.
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Good luck Martin but I'm taking a stance that those drawn high are going to be severely disadvantaged over the next two days and his stall 22 would therefore put me off.

I could be wrong of course, in which case it'll be a losing couple of days.

There is the option of playing it race by race but I'm fairly confident and as such I'm likely getting the better odds in advance and let's face it, this is not a meeting for big stakes so I won't stand to lose too much.

Eccleston it is for me in the Silver cup. Trainer not been in the best of form by his standards and it's slightly offputting that Tudhope seems to desert him for Intisaab but he was beaten just under 4 lengths in this last year, is 5lb lower this time and the extra ease in the ground will definitely suit. He's shown signs of coming back to form recently and 18s with Paddy is a nice e/w price 5 places for one draw so well (based on my prior assumptions of course).
 
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Bit of a rethink on this, results on the straight track are pointing towards middle to low being advantaged. Nameitwhatyoulike forms the basis of the main bet, and absolutely thriving sprinter of late, and like the fact that excellent claimer Adam McNamara takes over on him. The 5 lb is sure to come in handy. Have played the draw angle in combination forecasts/tricasts and have also included Growl, who could go off ridiculously short for a race of this nature along with the old boy Hoof It and the potentially well handicapped Jack Dexter.
 
davidjohnson said:
Bit of a rethink on this, results on the straight track are pointing towards middle to low being advantaged.
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Looking through results of the first six races David, the winning/placed horses etc,. I'm struggling to see the evidence of an advantage just yet. Low drawn horses did prevail in the Bronze Cup, but I think its interesting these low drawn horses weren't fancied in the betting. The horses drawn 3, 4, & 9, (7/2, 11/2 and 8/1 market leaders), finished down the field.

I'm loathed to disagree with you and Lee, but on todays evidence, I don't think we can draw many conclusions. I'm going for Flying Pursuit and Aeolus in Silver and Gold, (both drawn high). I'm not too worried yet! Good luck with those forecasts though! :)
 
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wilsonl said:
The only race run over the straight course yesterday saw 3 of the first 4 home drawn 1,2 & 3 of 21 runners (the other was berthed in 7).

The first two were at the bottom of the weights so in this traditionally tricky race I'm going to keep it simple by siding with a lightly weighted horse, drawn low with proven form on soft ground. The current going stick seems to confirm the preference for a low draw.

Unfortunately the only one that really ticks all those boxes is the favourite Growl.

so I'll be hoping for a bookmaker offer or two in the morning pushing him out slightly from the best priced 6/1 he is right now. The fact that the trainer's saddled the winner of this twice in the last ten years is clearly no bad thing and Nameitwhatyoulike should provide the pace on his side of the track. The good 5lb claimer on the latter brings him into the weight equation but he's twice run deplorably here in the Silver cup and is higher in the weights now so is easily passed over.

Of those higher in the weights I like Brando and he would have been my original selection had the ground been riding a bit quicker.

Jack Dexter has to come into the equation with the ground to suit and the fact he's previously been lugging top weight in this and is now towards the bottom of the weights, plus he too would appear to have a decent draw.

1. Growl, 2. Jack Dexter, 3. Brando
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One of the most painful races I've ever seen. All week I've been with Brando and deserted him for Growl when the ground on Thursday looked like higher weighted horses would struggle.

Money barely returned courtesy of a wimpish e/w 6/1 on the second but ****
 
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