2020 Betfair Hurdle Newbury Saturday February 8th

Currently fav but Not So Sleepy would appeal.

Think he’s an live outside chance in the Champ to grab a place. If Elixir is to target the County, be a solid if unspectacular run, but one I’ll watch with interest.

Wouldn’t surprise me if Aramon is also being laid out for a big handicap. Unsure if this will be it.
 
Eldorado Allen likely to be top weight. If they went fast enough he'll be there at the finish albeit the handicapped has taken the **** giving him 7lbs for getting beat.
 
Sometimes in previous years I've been through the list of entries about this time of year but nothing has really sprung out to me as a fantastic bet.

I am pleased to report that this year I do think that I have identified a juicy anti post price and possible winner to boot.

The horse has the right credentials. The type of animal I'd be prepared to have a big bet on nearer the time.

I hate putting up horses on this thread weeks before though.

Especially if I am planning a big bet, but haven't even placed the bet yet.

I am sure you are all dying to know the horse (not!).

I will post it up probably at final declarations, so I don't look like a tit if it's taken out.

Stayed tuned to this thread.
 
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Oh feck it. My silence has lasted the total of 20 hours. I just can't contain myself.

Phillip Hobbs trains Oakley. He ran a good third behind Not So Sleepy at Ascot when rated ten pound higher up in the weights. A five pound claimer rode him that day, so he still carried five pound more than Not So Sleepy in weight. Leoncavello was back in fourth so this gives the form a robust look. They pulled clear of the rest.

Not So Sleepy is favourite for this. He probably improved a bit next time when hacking up once again at Ascot, but nevertheless, Oakley didn't go up too significantly in the handicap himself. If they reoppose Oakley will be about 12lb better off for that two length defeat.

Oakley ran at Cheltenham next time. He was beaten just a neck by a younger horse that he was giving nearly two stone to. He notably also had Never Adapt back in third.

On that occasion Oakley was carrying six pound more than Never Adapt who recently won at Kempton. JP's horse will be due a rise in the handicap, which will mean that Oakley will probably be several pound better off with him.

Oakley has as good a chance as anything at 20/1. His latest two runs look extremely strong on paper. A long way to go before this race, but Oakley is a big contender nevertheless.
 
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I've backed not so sleepy and eduardo Allen both at 66/1 for the champion so I hope one of them wins.
Eduardo Allen would be the highest rated winner if he won.tough ask but could be up to it.
 
Never Adapt raised 10lb for recent win. Now rated 140.

How do you feel about that, Slim?

I see the handicapper has raised my fancy Oakley 2lb from 137 to 139 for staying in his box.

Hint hint...it's a sign the handicapper knows he doesn't have Oakley yet.

No more raises please handicapper. Don't ruin a good bet.
 
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Most interesting marks

152 Elborado Allen
145 Janidil
140 Never Adapt
130 Mack The Man

Never Adapt would clearly have beat Oakley had BG given him a competent ride FTO. I don't think Oakley can finish in front of him even with a 7lb swing. He looks very high off 139. Getting beat by a 3yo hurdler is not great form.
 
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I've had a wee pop at Pic D'Orhy (14/1) ahead of its race tomorrow.

On the eve of the Triumph Hurdle I wrote:

I took 12/1 Pic D’Orhy last week or so when Nicholls talked about its rating based on its French form and I see it seems stronger than Quel Destin in the teatime market but Cobden is sticking with the latter.
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Looking back, I now wonder if Newbury has been the plan all along. Anyway, I wouldn't have written the above if there wasn't something significant in what Nicholls had said. I don't remember exactly what he did say but it must have been along the lines of this one being the best of his juveniles. He isn't entered in the Champion Hurdle, which I'm note sure how to interpret but I suspect if he turns up at Newbury with Cobden aboard he'll be a single figure price and if he wins tomorrow he shorten up anyway. It's only sickness insurance really, though.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've had a wee pop at Pic D'Orhy (14/1) ahead of its race tomorrow.

On the eve of the Triumph Hurdle I wrote:



Looking back, I now wonder if Newbury has been the plan all along. Anyway, I wouldn't have written the above if there wasn't something significant in what Nicholls had said. I don't remember exactly what he did say but it must have been along the lines of this one being the best of his juveniles. He isn't entered in the Champion Hurdle, which I'm note sure how to interpret but I suspect if he turns up at Newbury with Cobden aboard he'll be a single figure price and if he wins tomorrow he shorten up anyway. It's only sickness insurance really, though.
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"Pic D’Orhy (Triumph Hurdle): His mark in this country based on his French form is 149 and he is a possible for the Triumph. He is a proper, big chasing type of horse who we bought with the future in mind. We took him to Wincanton last week for a racecourse gallop and we were thrilled with what we saw. I will either go straight for the Triumph with him or go to Aintree."

via - https://www.theguardian.com/sport/b...e-cheltenham-festival-guide-horse-racing-tips
 
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I haven't backed it today as I feared a pipe-opener was on the cards.

Whether his original 149 rating was a guess is another matter. The handicapper will have checked him out a lot more thoroughly than the average UK punter. I wonder if any enthusiast out there keeps track of how handicap marks based on French form tend to work out.

In any event, Nicholls felt he had some good juveniles last season and appeared to rate this one right up there with the best of them.

You also know how I think, Slim. I tend to believe most decent juveniles will improve 10lb into the next season (and a further 10lb once they go chasing). So I'm thinking maybe Nicholls regards PDO as a 159/160 5yo and a 170 chaser in the making. He also ran PDO in a G1 in France. I reckon that shouldn't be dismissed. And he won the Betfair with 5yo Zarkandar off 151.

I wouldn't be averse to backing the horse again if he runs badly today, especially if he goes out in the betting.

Today's Betfair blog comment:

He was a top class juvenile in France and did very well over the summer, so it was unfortunate that he fell at Auteuil first time out this season. Pic d'Orhy is a lovely horse who is going to make a top chaser so we have been patient with him and are half waiting for next season when he goes over fences.
We still don't know if his rating of 146 is a fair one but we do like him, there is improvement to come and this race will tell us plenty. If he runs well at Ascot then the obvious target is the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury.
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Desert Orchid said:
I haven't backed it today as I feared a pipe-opener was on the cards.

Whether his original 149 rating was a guess is another matter. The handicapper will have checked him out a lot more thoroughly than the average UK punter. I wonder if any enthusiast out there keeps track of how handicap marks based on French form tend to work out.

In any event, Nicholls felt he had some good juveniles last season and appeared to rate this one right up there with the best of them.

You also know how I think, Slim. I tend to believe most decent juveniles will improve 10lb into the next season (and a further 10lb once they go chasing). So I'm thinking maybe Nicholls regards PDO as a 159/160 5yo and a 170 chaser in the making. He also ran PDO in a G1 in France. I reckon that shouldn't be dismissed. And he won the Betfair with 5yo Zarkandar off 151.

I wouldn't be averse to backing the horse again if he runs badly today, especially if he goes out in the betting.

Today's Betfair blog comment:
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I very much like your thinking on this DO. When I say 146 is a guess, I mean in terms of how confident they are with their ratings that 146 would be very low confidence. He could indeed have a stone in hand.
 
Slim said:
I don't think Oakley can finish in front of him even with a 7lb swing. He looks very high off 139. Getting beat by a 3yo hurdler is not great form.
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The above will be thoroughly exposed for the unadulterated twaddle that is in a few weeks.
You just don't know what a price you'll be missing out on. You really don't.

"He looks very high off 139".

I think thats code for...'I don't respect this horse or what Marb explained about him...and he wouldn't win an egg and spoon race off 125'
 
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Marb said:
The above will be thoroughly exposed for the unadulterated twaddle that is in a few weeks.
You just don't know what a price you'll be missing out on. You really don't.

"He looks very high off 139".

I think thats code for...'I don't respect this horse or what Marb explained about him...and he wouldn't win an egg and spoon race off 125'
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Game of opinions.
 
Eldorado Allen is entered in a listed race against Call Me Lord on Saturday.It's a big deal if he runs there and skips running off 152 in the Betfair.
 
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Slim said:
Eldorado Allen is entered in a listed race against Call Me Lord on Saturday.It's a big deal if he runs there and skips running off 152 in the Betfair.
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Wouldn't that imply that they don't think he can win the much bigger prize off 152?
 
Or they fancy their chances against odds on Call Me Lord. If he’s a genuine Champ Hurdle horse he should be going close.

I’d rather take my chances against Call Me Lord than take on a big field handicap.
 
Double J said:
Or they fancy their chances against odds on Call Me Lord. If he’s a genuine Champ Hurdle horse he should be going close.

I’d rather take my chances against Call Me Lord than take on a big field handicap.
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The 7/2 is some price if you could be sure where he would run.
 
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