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2025 Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle

The Handicapper certainly seems to have given Stencil a chance off 135 and if it runs here it will also be a pointer to East India Dock's chance in the Triumph - related contingency double material?
 
So, I've been having a bit of a butchers at this (six-day confirmations tomorrow).

I still like Stencil, but the one that really interests me at the prices is Liam Swagger.

Ex-Point trainer James Owen is getting more right than he's getting wrong and is currently operating at a 28% strike rate.

Interesting that he's protected this one's mark by taking him to the Southwell AW for it's only run since December where it won a a 1m4f minor event with its head in its chest.

Nothing remarkable about that, perhaps, but the BHA Handicapper was seemingly sufficiently impressed to raise the beast to 84 from 82.

I'm not getting into how I go about converting Flat marks to Hurdles and vice versa, but an 84 horse running off 124 over timber is of interest to me if I think it's potentially as good in both spheres.

I'll be interested to see if Liam Swagger is left in this race tomorrow.

More possible plots than you could shake a stick at in this contest, though.
 
From the general handicap thread:

Hot Fuss in the Fred Winter has a mark of 122 compared to a flat OR of 93. His hurdle form includes a level weight 4l defeat by East India Dock and his Festival warm up was on the flat, presumably to protect his mark. He might not make the cut but 16/1 nrnb seems fair enough.
 
Ian_Davies said:
So, I've been having a bit of a butchers at this (six-day confirmations tomorrow).

I still like Stencil, but the one that really interests me at the prices is Liam Swagger.

Ex-Point trainer James Owen is getting more right than he's getting wrong and is currently operating at a 28% strike rate.

Interesting that he's protected this one's mark by taking him to the Southwell AW for it's only run since December where it won a a 1m4f minor event with its head in its chest.

Nothing remarkable about that, perhaps, but the BHA Handicapper was seemingly sufficiently impressed to raise the beast to 84 from 82.

I'm not getting into how I go about converting Flat marks to Hurdles and vice versa, but an 84 horse running off 124 over timber is of interest to me if I think it's potentially as good in both spheres.

I'll be interested to see if Liam Swagger is left in this race tomorrow.

More possible plots than you could shake a stick at in this contest, though.
Click to expand...
I'd already had Mr Swagger on my short list. Took 26/1 B. Exchange.
 
archie said:
From the general handicap thread:

Hot Fuss in the Fred Winter has a mark of 122 compared to a flat OR of 93. His hurdle form includes a level weight 4l defeat by East India Dock and his Festival warm up was on the flat, presumably to protect his mark. He might not make the cut but 16/1 nrnb seems fair enough.
Click to expand...
If I am interested in Liam Swagger I have to be interested in Hot Fuss too because the exact same rational applies.
 
The final field (Archie in raptures)....

Wendrock
Murcia
Sony Bill
Stencil
Total Look
Putyourhandstogether
Slurricane
Robbies Rock
Quantock Hills
Teriferma
Holy See
Turn And Finish
Liam Swagger
Solar Drive
Luker’s Tipple
Kool One
Mister Cessna
Beyond Your Dreams
Moutarde
Static
Hot Fuss
Lavender Hill Mob

I will add a betting link as soon as I see one on Oddschecker.
 
I've had a little ew on Turn and finish 28/1.

Ex Joseph o'brien and you wouldn't think they would let it go if it was good.
Has joined H.Dereham and only won by a nose when heavily odds on.
But back in December at Cork he ran well in 2nd against his then stablemate and my main fancy for this
Putyourhandstogether and is 6lb lower now.
 
Townend rarely rides in Cheltenham handicaps and is booked for Sony Bill. One of three on top weight but thought the jockey booking was significant.
 
Kool One 50/1
Has had 3 runs over hurdles finishing placed each time.
Looks like a strong stayer to me so a strong pace (which seems likely) should suit.
I know absolutely nothing about the jockey or trainer , but this horse has won on the flat and can hopefully continue the run of big priced winners in this race.
 
Slurricane had a juvenile run behind City Of Troy , not beaten too far.
Ross O'Sullivan had an 80/1 placed Eagle's Reign last year so knows what it takes.
Kool Kat is a Spanish bred by Kool Kompany , a son of Jeremy that has gotten a few decent juvenile hurdlers.
Conor Maxwell was a dual purpose jockey turned trainer who is a thinking man's horseman held in very high regard by Tom Hogan, the man who declared Noel Fehily the best NH jockey in England before the rest of us took any notice.
Martin Stevens gave Kool Kompany a decent write up in Good Morning Bloodstock a few weeks back, well worth a read.
 
When I first looked at this race, I thought it looked quite a poor renewal, apart from Stencil looking a standout. He is still 11/2, which seems fair, but not exciting in such a puzzle of a race.

When I delved into the race further, last Thursday, I formed the view, with pretty much the same reasoning, already expressed by Ian Davies in this thread, that Liam Swagger looks the bet. I have backed him @ 25/1 and Kool One @ 50/1. Kool One has been running pretty well in decent races, and his inexperienced jockey wasn’t able to use his 7lb claim in the last of these. The faster ground (assuming they stop watering) should be in his favour too. One other to throw in the mix is Liam Swagger’s stablemate, Lavender Hill Mob at 50/1. He was higher rated than Liam Swagger on the flat and hasn’t got his act together over hurdles as yet. I’ve read James Owen’s stable tour comments on the Sporting Life website and these give considerable hope that he could run well on Tuesday. Prior to reading that, I had a feeling he’d run well, but couldn’t provide any reasoning.
 
Screenshot of the tabulated figures, comments copied underneath:

Screenshot (171).png

I don’t study juveniles enough to come up with meaningful ratings for a race like this – sometimes the Triumph is different – and I’ve managed a few lucky hunch-punts in recent years so that’s pretty much all I’m hoping for here. I’ve added ratings for those with Flat ratings and converted them to the NH scale. They found me last year’s winner. The ones in purple are the ones for which I don’t have a Flat rating, ordered by RPR. I’ve so far taken Mr Cessna (50/1, 5 places, because of its French rating which the trainer has managed to get worked down a fair bit, and Lavender Hill Mob, also 50/1, 5 places. I actually quite fancy this one and reckon the connections knew they had a very strong contender for the Triumph in East India Dock so have set about engineering a tilt at the double. I also plan to back Hot Fuss and Liam Swagger. I suspect Total Look might be a good thing, though, since absolutely nothing went right for it last time after being backed from 9/2 into 3/1 yet it still put up a level of form that sees it leading the market. This is the form book comment:

Didn't always jump with fluency, raced in fourth, lost position and dropped to rear 3 out, headway approaching last, went third just after last, kept on well (inquiry held into running and riding; jockey stated that his instructions were to follow the leaders and in the race his jumping was only ok and he was losing ground at hurdles; he went on the ground but was changing his legs and put down at some hurdles; he didn't pick up in the straight and jumped the last high; trainer confirmed instructions and expressed his satisfaction with ride given, he felt gelding's jumping needs to improve and had no fixed future plan.; vet said gelding was found to be coughing post race and had also lost a near fore shoe; stewards noted the explanations offered)


I’ll use him to cover all my bets in the race and then a bit more.
 
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