365 Gold Cup next week

Dynaste will shorten as the week goes on, you definitely need to look outside the box. I'm sticking with him, Gd-St would be nice.
 
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Indeed.
Thinking of Monkerhostin, Docklands Express , even last year's winner that little enough to recommend them over the trip yet they got it on the day.
All about getting into a rhythm and being happy in yourself; this can be a funny old race sometimes- moretimes it is a right slog .
As i said above, i would love to see Dave Noonan take 5 lb off him and let him roll.
 
I have never been a fan of Southfield Theatre and was surprised to hear the excitement in PN voice when he said he has him in the Bet365.

If he ends up depending on him to win the title I really don't fancy his chances.

Southfield Theatre is a dreadful jumper and the last place I'd want to be sending him is to tackle Sandown's railway fences. He's an absolute certainty to smack at least one of them and his backers should cross their fingers it's not the first one as 2 will follow.

I don't know what Sam Twiston-Davies told PN about how he was going when brought down at Cheltenham but he wasn't going any better than just ok. Between the 12th and 13th fence he moved up a place between two horses and was brought down but he certainly wasn't pulling Sam's arms out and after walking through the first his jumping had looked awkward until he departed.

Maybe PN can work a miracle but I wouldn't have a brass penny on ST in a big field like that.

Not even sure any of his form is good enough to be winning that race anyway. He has raced against some big names like Don Poli and Coneygree but they brushed him aside with ease

He beat Monkey Kingdom and Hollow Penny who are both very moderate but did manage a 2nd in the RSA..............but something had to finish 2nd and the 3rd has never looked like winning in his 3 races since.


You could hang your hat on the fact that PN must think he's a very good horse running him in such high class company in the past and he does know how to win these big handicaps

Personally I'd be more inclined to think he's overfaced the horse and even this is too much to ask.

Sandown should actually be ashamed of themselves when you look back and see the names that have won the race. Since Topsham Bay did the double in the early 90's the race has been allowed to slip into near oblivion.....so at least the Trainers Championship gets people attention even if the race it'self lacks the quality it used to
 
Tanlic said:
I have never been a fan of Southfield Theatre and was surprised to hear the excitement in PN voice when he said he has him in the Bet365.
...

You could hang your hat on the fact that PN must think he's a very good horse running him in such high class company in the past and he does know how to win these big handicaps
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I do think that is a large part of it, Tanlic.

I went low with the RSA last year and ST's position at the head of the market seems to me largely predicated on the fact that Don Poli is now a 167 horse. I think people are accepting that ST will be better this season by the same amount. It was, I admit, very much behind my thinking in saving on him in the Ultima.

Southfield Theatre strikes me as the next best [after Holywell] and worth a saver. He’s [3rd top] rated on his RSA form when he came back injured after hitting the fourth last when going well and might be a bit better than that. The winner Don Poli is now a 166 horse so if Southfield Theatre had gone very close in the RSA it’s entirely possible he’d have been contesting all the big graded races too and he’d never have seen a mark of 150.
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But as you say, Paul Nicholls tends to know what he's got.
 
For me it's less about ST's ability based on the RSA. Just look at the ratings of win and placed horses generally achieve subsequently. It's more about whether he can fulfill the potential to do so after his come back.

If he can he would look obviously well in to me. Equally I'm not convinced he doesn't jump well enough to win round Sandown. He's been prone to the odd error, but no more than any relatively inexperienced chaser. And until he was brought down there was nothing wrong with his jumping at the Festival, and he was travelling easily enough at the time.

I still have him as the most likely winner but there's no juice in his price now. I was happy to take 10's last weekend but I wouldn't be backing him now at 7's and 6's in the odd place. I will probably lay some off on Friday or Saturday and lock in a profit and leave the rest to run, with a couple of ew back-ups.

As for Dynaste. For me it wouldn't be a total shock to see him run a big race. He hasn't obviously shown he needs a trip, and looks to have regressed, but a race like this might just spark him up again.
 
Paul Kealy has deserted ST (on account of his jumping) and gone for The Young Master instead.

I haven't finalised my thoughts yet (won't do so until tomorrow evening at the earliest) but while TYM is handicapped to win an ordinary Cl2 handicap chase, this is a different kettle of fish but that might change depending on who stands their ground.
 
The young master is decent animal worthy favourite still like Dynaste each way where is EC1 BTW not seen him post here for a good while?
 
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Main bet - Southfield Theatre
Main danger - Henri Parry Morgan
Savers - Sir Des Champs & Measureofmydreams

Worth a pop - Seventh Sky ew 5 pl 66/1
 
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Tanlic said:
I have never been a fan of Southfield Theatre and was surprised to hear the excitement in PN voice when he said he has him in the Bet365.

If he ends up depending on him to win the title I really don't fancy his chances.

Southfield Theatre is a dreadful jumper and the last place I'd want to be sending him is to tackle Sandown's railway fences. He's an absolute certainty to smack at least one of them and his backers should cross their fingers it's not the first one as 2 will follow.

I don't know what Sam Twiston-Davies told PN about how he was going when brought down at Cheltenham but he wasn't going any better than just ok. Between the 12th and 13th fence he moved up a place between two horses and was brought down but he certainly wasn't pulling Sam's arms out and after walking through the first his jumping had looked awkward until he departed.

Maybe PN can work a miracle but I wouldn't have a brass penny on ST in a big field like that.

Not even sure any of his form is good enough to be winning that race anyway. He has raced against some big names like Don Poli and Coneygree but they brushed him aside with ease

He beat Monkey Kingdom and Hollow Penny who are both very moderate but did manage a 2nd in the RSA..............but something had to finish 2nd and the 3rd has never looked like winning in his 3 races since.


You could hang your hat on the fact that PN must think he's a very good horse running him in such high class company in the past and he does know how to win these big handicaps

Personally I'd be more inclined to think he's overfaced the horse and even this is too much to ask.

Sandown should actually be ashamed of themselves when you look back and see the names that have won the race. Since Topsham Bay did the double in the early 90's the race has been allowed to slip into near oblivion.....so at least the Trainers Championship gets people attention even if the race it'self lacks the quality it used to
Click to expand...

i agree with the assessment of st entirely but the last para is very unfair. You are simply not going to get the very highest rated running in this now with far more options than 25 years ago. Also it is fair to say that the race is coming back in strength. Apparently only four of the last ten winners would have qualified today

finding it hard to pinpoint a winner. The Mullins horse is in as an afterthought and taht won't do for me. Hadrians is another who's jumping bothers me. Not really keen on a novice such as bowens . Carole's looks up to best mark. Not keen on any national runners and I wished they had skipped the race for le reve who I would certainly be on today. Dynaste is of no interest on recent runs and this isn't a race for a fading force.

young master looks to tick a lot of boxes but I like theatre guide. 11lbs higher than that kempton win but he did breeze that. He has a nice attitude and can see him goung nicely up the hill
 
Gold Futures ....25/1 EW could run well here. He will love the ground, stays well, definitely has ability and is carrying a featherweight.

Having a saver on HP Morgan
 
Southfield Theatre backed a week ago and Measureofmyfreams backed last night. Plenty of dangers, but both strike me as on marks that they could exceed by some considerable margin.
 
Well done, TheBear and anyone else who backed the winner.

I can't say I would be too pleased at the rides the Mullins horses got.
 
Measureofmydreams was creeping into it and made a bad mistake typical race run by a novice who is not that good a jumper .
 
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